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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 03:15 am
cicerone imposter wrote:
I believe it's been proven this planet has gone through two ice ages.
In fact, the Earth is going through ice ages about EVERY 100.000 years (search for Milankovitch cycles). We can trace it back up to about 700.000 years thanks to ice cores (for example Vodstock or Epica).

"going through" would be even a misleading term since 90% of all times, the Earth is in an ice age. We are now in a WARM period called interglacial which is lasting already to long. In the 70s, the media was hysterical about... a global cooling, raising the fear that we may be entering a new ice age, with Baltic sea or the Channel being snow covered valleys and Belgium in permanent ice. brrr.
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 03:44 am
old europe wrote:
Funny graphics:

http://img284.imageshack.us/img284/4328/image17kb.jpg

I like the fact that the "observed trend" goes some fifty years into the future. How did the people doing the observing get the data?

(Hint: if you predict something, you called it a "prediction". Not an "observation".)

(Oh, and thanks for posting this misleading piece of garbage, minitax.)
I agree with you that this graph, from the IPCC, is a "misleading piece of garbage", OE :wink: If you knew more about the SPM of the IPCC, you'll see even worse garbage than this.

This graph is in fact Figure 9.3 of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report you can find here: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-09.PDF
The years you see are explicitely stated "years from start of experiments" and since the curves correspond to model "hindcasts" back to the 1960s (the reference mean being 1961-1980), it is consistent with the blue plot of observed trend. You can even have more hindcast back to 1850 at figure 9.5 of the above PDF document.

Besides, what can be noted is there are about 20 models with a spread in results of about 100% (increase from 1,5°C to 2,5°C). A bit like predicting that tomorrow, temperature will be beetwen 15°C and 25°C. Not very usefull is it ?
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 04:41 am
Foxfyre wrote:
So CAFE standards decreasing the amount of fuel necessary to burn to maintain our preferred lifestyle is the far more economical and satisfying way to go and far more beneficial to the overall economy.

CAFE standards don't "decrease the amount of fuel neccessary to burn to maintain our preferred lifestyle". Engineering does that. CAFE standards only decrease the amount of fuel the government permits you to burn in pursuit of your lifestyle. It is a command-and-control intrusion into consumer preference, and as such is much more meddlesome than a tax.

Foxfyre wrote:
If the CAFE standards accomplish the same thing as higher gas taxes and do it without lowering quality of life, why should that be a problem to anybody?

It shouldn't -- but CAFE standards do lower Americans quality of life by making it hard to drive cars burning more fuel than Congress wants them to. This decrease in quality of life is worse than what you would get from a tax. You can drive a fuel-efficient car under both regimes. With a gasoline tax, you still have the choice of driving a gas-guzzler if you want to -- and pay for it. Under CAFE, it doesn't matter if you want to pay for gas-guzzling or not. You no longer have a choice in the matter, because car companies can no longer build the cars that would your choice.

okie wrote:
By the way, with all the noise being made about SUV's, why don't people complain about penalizing big houses, big hotels, cruises, Christmas lights, signs, gambling casinos, Las Vegas, airline travel, you name it?

I'm guessing it's because SUVs are at least partly an unintended consequence of CAFE standards, while big houses and the other things you mentioned are not.

Some American consumers like to drive large cars, whether they're fuel-efficient or not. CAFE makes it illegal for manufacturers to make some of these cars. So, instead, American carmakers started building the closest things to large cars that still qualify as vans under CAFE, and American consumers happily bought them. This design -- 'this is not a big car, it's a (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) van -- is called SUV. American environmentalists brought it upon themselves by enforcing their good intentions through engineering regulations.

Faced with these facts, lobbyists for CAFE standards could do either of two things. They could either acknowledge that they made a mistake, and that their command-and-control approach to car building worked badly. Or they could get angry at the messenger telling them that their method had failed. They could get mad at SUVs, their builders, and their buyers, blaming them for some kind of conspiracy against their good intentions. Given how human beings are wired, nobody should be surprised that ardent environmentalists mostly went with the second option.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 07:49 am
Thomas, one more time:

Option A. Impose reasonable CAFE standards in lieu of a higher gas tax. CAFE standards requiring fuel economy for the purpose of reducing harmful emissions and/or conserve a finite fuel supply is no different than requiring catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions or requiring certain kinds of tires and weight limits to protect road surfaces. The standards probably do add to the cost of an automobile, but they are paid only once there and are more than offset by savings in fuel costs over the life of the automobile. People can drive as much as they want with no additional negative consequences and there is no negative consequence for industries dependent on mobility and/or over-the-road transportation. Win-win solution for everybody.

Option B. Require no built in fuel economy but impose a higher gas tax to force fuel economy while lowering payroll taxes to offset the gas tax. The gas tax however presumably forces people to travel less creating reduced income for the recreation and tourist industries. The increased pressure on cost of goods forces inflation upward offsetting much or all of the savings realized through lower payroll taxes. The people are restricted in their ability to live their lifestyle, the recreation and tourist industries are hurt and everybody pays more for goods and services.

Now tell me again how government is more intrusive in Option A than it is in Option B?
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 08:45 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Thomas, one more time:

Option A. Impose reasonable CAFE standards in lieu of a higher gas tax.

If the standards are reasonable by definition, then you have no problem to solve. You just defined the problem away by fiat.

Foxfyre wrote:
CAFE standards requiring fuel economy for the purpose of reducing harmful emissions and/or conserve a finite fuel supply is no different than requiring catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions or [requiring certain kinds of tires and weight limits to protect road surfaces.

The difference is that a Carbon monoxide tax to replace the catalytic converter requirement would be impractical to collect, as would a road erosion tax to replace for regulations about tire. (I would have no problem permitting erosive tires, or cars without catalytic converters, and taxing them.) A Carbon dioxide tax -- implemented by a gasoline tax, is eminently practical to collect in comparison.

Foxfyre wrote:
The standards probably do add to the cost of an automobile, but they are paid only once there and are more than offset by savings in fuel costs over the life of the automobile.

As Thomas Sowell, one of your favorite sources, likes to point out, the price of something is what you give up to get it. Because of CAFE regulations, car manufacturers are limited in building the cars consumers want, meaning consumers end up with different cars than their favorite ones. While production cost is a one-off expense, consumers drive cars different from the ones they want permanently. This part of the cost -- in the relevant, economic sense of cost -- is significant. And it permanent, no different in principle than a tax.

Foxfyre wrote:
Option B. Require no built in fuel economy but impose a higher gas tax to force fuel economy while lowering payroll taxes to offset the gas tax. The gas tax however presumably

I love your usage of "however presumably".

As an adherent to the supply-side economics the Republican party claims to believe in, you presumably oppose hikes in the top marginal income tax. The argument Republican politicians make against this, and for the Bush tax cuts, is that people respond very strongly to tax incentives, so higher tax rates at the top lead to CEOs working a lot less, being a lot less productive, to the detriment of all. But now that we're talking about a gasoline tax, you suddenly find it uncertain that the same people who respond so promptly to income tax changes also respond to gasoline tax changes. However convenient this assumption may be for you to make your point, it is logically incoherent. People either respond to tax incentives by reducing the activity being taxed -- or they don't. And they do, both in the income/payroll tax case an in the gasoline tax case.

Foxfyre wrote:
forces people to travel less

Travel less, or buy a more fuel efficient car, as they would under CAFE. The tax deprives them of no option they would have under CAFE.

Foxfyre wrote:
creating reduced income for the recreation and tourist industries The increased pressure on cost of goods forces inflation upward offsetting much or all of the savings realized through lower payroll taxes. The people are restricted in their ability to live their lifestyle, the recreation and tourist industries are hurt and everybody pays more for goods and services.

No. Since we assume that the gasoline tax hike is compensated by corresponding cuts of the payroll- and income tax, the net impact on the rest of the economy would be zero. There might be shifts within the rest of the economy -- for example, people might spend less money on trips to Disneyland and more on movie tickets. But in the aggregate, what they spend less on one thing they would spend more on something else. An income-neutral shift form income- to gasoline taxes causes no change in total consumer spending.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 09:47 am
Thomas wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
Thomas, one more time:

Option A. Impose reasonable CAFE standards in lieu of a higher gas tax.

If the standards are reasonable by definition, then you have no problem to solve. You just defined the problem away by fiat.


I have not seen any CAFE standards that I considered to be unreasonable. If the government did impose unreasonable standards, we are still a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, and the backlash at those who imposed them would be considerable. Such things usually pretty well take care of themselves here.

Quote:
Foxfyre wrote:
CAFE standards requiring fuel economy for the purpose of reducing harmful emissions and/or conserve a finite fuel supply is no different than requiring catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions or [requiring certain kinds of tires and weight limits to protect road surfaces.

The difference is that a Carbon monoxide tax to replace the catalytic converter requirement would be impractical to collect, as would a road erosion tax to replace for regulations about tire. (I would have no problem permitting erosive tires, or cars without catalytic converters, and taxing them.) A Carbon dioxide tax -- implemented by a gasoline tax, is eminently practical to collect in comparison.


Nonsense. It would be quite simple to impose a much higher registration cost on autos without a catalytic converter just as people driving heavier cars pay more to register them than do people driving lighter weight cars. The government can also give a break for people driving hybrids to encourage more of that.

But if you don't want carbon monoxide in the air, you require measures to prevent it just as you require factories to scrub their emissions and recondition any water they return to the ground or river. I have to provide proof that my car passes an emissions test before I can register it at all. I do not resent that in any way EXCEPT that it is imposed only on Albuquerque drivers and not on the tens of thousands of others who drive into the city to work, shop, and play, thus I see it as an unfair/unreasonable tax. I would approve if applied uniformly or if a tax break was given to those who voluntarily provided proof of a satisfactory emissions test, however.

Quote:
Foxfyre wrote:
The standards probably do add to the cost of an automobile, but they are paid only once there and are more than offset by savings in fuel costs over the life of the automobile.

As Thomas Sowell, one of your favorite sources, likes to point out, the price of something is what you give up to get it. Because of CAFE regulations, car manufacturers are limited in building the cars consumers want, meaning consumers end up with different cars than their favorite ones. While production cost is a one-off expense, consumers drive cars different from the ones they want permanently. This part of the cost -- in the relevant, economic sense of cost -- is significant. And it permanent, no different in principle than a tax.


It is a trade off the American people seem quite willing to make to be able to better afford the fuel that goes into their cars and also to protect the recreation and tourist industries which are a large part of our economy and to be able to have the freedom to afford to choose to go when and where we wish while avoiding the higher cost in goods and services produced by a high fuel tax.

Quote:
Foxfyre wrote:
Option B. Require no built in fuel economy but impose a higher gas tax to force fuel economy while lowering payroll taxes to offset the gas tax. The gas tax however presumably

I love your usage of "however presumably".

As an adherent to the supply-side economics the Republican party claims to believe in, you presumably oppose hikes in the top marginal income tax. The argument Republican politicians make against this, and for the Bush tax cuts, is that people respond very strongly to tax incentives, so higher tax rates at the top lead to CEOs working a lot less, being a lot less productive, to the detriment of all. But now that we're talking about a gasoline tax, you suddenly find it uncertain that the same people who respond so promptly to income tax changes also respond to gasoline tax changes. However convenient this assumption may be for you to make your point, it is logically incoherent. People either respond to tax incentives by reducing the activity being taxed -- or they don't. And they do, both in the income/payroll tax case an in the gasoline tax case.


I absolutely do not think people should be punished for success, and I absolutely do think higher taxes on income at any level is detrimental to everybody. Without going into the nitty gritty of that which would derail this thread, I will refer you to the analogy I used on that very subject on the Bush supporters thread either yesterday or the day before. LOOK HERE

The bottom line here is that higher fuel taxes don't just affect drivers but impose higher costs on everybody and everything they do or use. And even above the higher costs they are detrimental to many industries while being revenue neutral for the government.

As I illustrated, CAFE standards are also revenue neutral for the government, do not harm any industries, are not inflationary, and produce the desired economy of fuel use.

Quote:
Foxfyre wrote:
forces people to travel less

Travel less, or buy a more fuel efficient car, as they would under CAFE. The tax deprives them of no option they would have under CAFE.


You seem to imply that Americans don't buy more fuel efficient cars now. I haven't heard a single person ever complain that his/her vehicle gets too many miles to the gallon. Nevertheless, you still see a Rolls Royce or stretch limo now and then and the dealership where I bought my Subaru Impreza also sells Hummers. The big pickups the guys use as tools as well as transportation don't get great gas mileage either, but they are certainly more fuel efficient with the CAFE standards than they were without them. And nobody seems to mind that at all.

Quote:
Foxfyre wrote:
creating reduced income for the recreation and tourist industries The increased pressure on cost of goods forces inflation upward offsetting much or all of the savings realized through lower payroll taxes. The people are restricted in their ability to live their lifestyle, the recreation and tourist industries are hurt and everybody pays more for goods and services.

No. Since we assume that the gasoline tax hike is compensated by corresponding cuts of the payroll- and income tax, the net impact on the rest of the economy would be zero. There might be shifts within the rest of the economy -- for example, people might spend less money on trips to Disneyland and more on movie tickets. But in the aggregate, what they spend less on one thing they would spend more on something else. An income-neutral shift form income- to gasoline taxes causes no change in total consumer spending.


But why should I have to go to a bad movie because I can't afford Disneyland due to the high cost of gasoline? And why should Disneyland have to lay off employees and close down services because fewer people can afford to go there? I've already shown how CAFE standards are not inflationary but high gas taxes are. So income-neutral is not the same thing as cost neutral.

If the goal is to conserve fuel and reduce harmful emissions, CAFE standards accomplish that without any of the negative consequences created by higher taxes on anything.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 11:18 am
Sorry to inject this into interesting information on CAFE standards, but saw this and I think it is very applicable to the global warming debate.

It is what is called the "Occam's Razor" principle, which simply means the simplest theory to explain a natural phenomenon usually turns out to be the correct one. It is simply common sense, really, and documents in different words what some of us here have tried to explain to the CO2 bandwagon crowd, which requires somewhat convoluted computer models, projections, and unproven assumptions, while at the same time other simpler and more direct factors are so easily demonstrated and obvious. Factors like the variability of the sun, earth's wobble, etc. are obvious candidates first, and perhaps if you wish to apply the so-called "greenhouse effect," why not look at clearly the most dominant part of this factor first, which is water vapor?

http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/OCCAMRAZ.html

Perhaps this has been brought up before and is common knowledge, but to me it was not, so I found it interesting.
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 11:52 am
Hmm, your Occam's razzor is rather a double edged sword, okie.
Warmers use the simple explanation of GHG to explain global warming and the the simple explanation of GW to explain... anything. Remeber the list of things cause by GW compiled by prof. Brignell

Agricultural land increase, Africa devastated, African aid threatened, air pressure changes, Alaska reshaped, allergies increase, Alps melting, Amazon a desert, American dream end, amphibians breeding earlier (or not), ancient forests dramatically changed, Antarctic grass flourishes, anxiety, algal blooms, Arctic bogs melt, Asthma, atmospheric defiance, atmospheric circulation modified, avalanches reduced, avalanches increased, bananas destroyed, bananas grow, bet for $10,000, better beer, big melt faster,...
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:09 pm
Thomas wrote:
A Carbon dioxide tax -- implemented by a gasoline tax, is eminently practical to collect in comparison.
Something puzzles me, Thomas.
-GW is supposed to rock our lives right ?
-Poor people are, as always, more affected than rich people, right ?
-A carbon tax is something that will affect more the poor (for heating, for moving, for vacations...) than the rich right ? A revenue tax would be much more just.
So what at the end of the day is the purpose of a carbon tax as far as GW is concerned ? (appart from fulfilling the aim of bureaucrats, namely more interventionism, hence more power for them).

BTW, it doesn't work. Kyoto doesn't work (13 countries out of 15 don't comply and have no chance to comply). And even if does work administratively, it would change nearly NOTHING to Earth's temperature, something Kyoto promoters omit to mention.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:13 pm
okie wrote:
Sorry to inject this into interesting information on CAFE standards, but saw this and I think it is very applicable to the global warming debate.

It is what is called the "Occam's Razor" principle, which simply means the simplest theory to explain a natural phenomenon usually turns out to be the correct one. It is simply common sense, really, and documents in different words what some of us here have tried to explain to the CO2 bandwagon crowd, which requires somewhat convoluted computer models, projections, and unproven assumptions, while at the same time other simpler and more direct factors are so easily demonstrated and obvious. Factors like the variability of the sun, earth's wobble, etc. are obvious candidates first, and perhaps if you wish to apply the so-called "greenhouse effect," why not look at clearly the most dominant part of this factor first, which is water vapor?

http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/OCCAMRAZ.html

Perhaps this has been brought up before and is common knowledge, but to me it was not, so I found it interesting.


I did offer what appeared to be a well-researched and scientific analysis of water vapor as a component of global warming what seems like several hundred pages back, Okie. As I recall, the research was pronounced junk science and I was pronounced an idiot by the AGW crowd. Smile
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:19 pm
I suspect Thomas' antipathy for CAFE standards springs primarily from his relatively libertarian economic views. I fully agree with him on this point.

I have far more confidence in the ability of automobile manufacturers to design a selection of vehicles to meet the quite variable needs of a large population of motorists, than I do of governments - even the best of them. Bureaucrats everywhere think of the powers and perogatives of their department or agency first, and the efficacy and quality of the services they render last. If the best that German bureaucrats (in the GDR) could do with an automobile design was the Trabant, at a time when their private alternatives in the FRG were making Volkswagons, Mercedes (before the contemporary wave of electronic unreliability) and Porsches - all in much greater numbers, what hope can there be for others?

Government can influence the choices that people make in meeting their quite variable needs and wants through its power of taxation. However, even this can have unanticipates side effects, some of which have already been illustrated by miniTAX in his interesting posts.

Direct government involvement in the operation of businesses generally has more bad side effects than good direct ones - even under the best of circumstances. The current difficulties of Airbus, with its government contriolled boards is a good example of this point.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:20 pm
Minitax, I don't think greenhouse gas theory and all of the competing factors within that theory is very simple at all. It is very complex and requires a multitude of assumptions and calculations to derive a result. Not only that, there are many greenhouse gases, and as I've pointed out, water vapor is by far the most dominant, and water vapor concentrations and distribution on a historical scale is far from being well understood or quantified in terms of cycles.

I am simply addressing what the simplest factors may be that control climate change. Nobody has ever denied that climate cycles exist, and that climatic cycles can cause many effects, including those that you mention. Indeed, climatic change would also fit the Occam's Razor theory, in that it would obviously affect a number of phenomena to occur.

The issue I am addressing here is not what global warming causes, but what causes global warming or climate change, and I think perhaps some of the most simple and direct factors are likely the most applicable, as predicted by the Occam Razor theory.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:25 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I suspect Thomas' antipathy for CAFE standards springs primarily from his relatively libertarian economic views. I fully agree with him on this point.

I have far more confidence in the ability of automobile manufacturers to design a selection of vehicles to meet the quite variable needs of a large population of motorists, than I do of governments - even the best of them. Bureaucrats everywhere think of the powers and perogatives of their department or agency first, and the efficacy and quality of the services they render last. If the best that German bureaucrats (in the GDR) could do with an automobile design was the Trabant, at a time when their private alternatives in the FRG were making Volkswagons, Mercedes (before the contemporary wave of electronic unreliability) and Porsches - all in much greater numbers, what hope can there be for others?

Government can influence the choices that people make in meeting their quite variable needs and wants through its power of taxation. However, even this can have unanticipates side effects, some of which have already been illustrated by miniTAX in his interesting posts.

Direct government involvement in the operation of businesses generally has more bad side effects than good direct ones - even under the best of circumstances. The current difficulties of Airbus, with its government contriolled boards is a good example of this point.


I would prefer the government not meddle too. However, Thomas was arguing that we replace the CAFE standards with a high fuel tax to accomplish the desired reduction in fuel use (and presumably therefore harmful greehouse gas emissions.)

I have been arguing that the CAFE standards are preferable to a European style high gas tax. So what do you think if it is an either/or situation, George?
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:26 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I suspect Thomas' antipathy for CAFE standards springs primarily from his relatively libertarian economic views. I fully agree with him on this point.

I have far more confidence in the ability of automobile manufacturers to design a selection of vehicles to meet the quite variable needs of a large population of motorists, than I do of governments - even the best of them. Bureaucrats everywhere think of the powers and perogatives of their department or agency first, and the efficacy and quality of the services they render last. If the best that German bureaucrats (in the GDR) could do with an automobile design was the Trabant, at a time when their private alternatives in the FRG were making Volkswagons, Mercedes (before the contemporary wave of electronic unreliability) and Porsches - all in much greater numbers, what hope can there be for others?

Government can influence the choices that people make in meeting their quite variable needs and wants through its power of taxation. However, even this can have unanticipates side effects, some of which have already been illustrated by miniTAX in his interesting posts.

Direct government involvement in the operation of businesses generally has more bad side effects than good direct ones - even under the best of circumstances. The current difficulties of Airbus, with its government contriolled boards is a good example of this point.


I would prefer the government not meddle too. However, Thomas was arguing that we replace the CAFE standards with a high fuel tax to accomplish the desired reduction in fuel use (and presumably therefore harmful greehouse gas emissions.)

I have been arguing that the CAFE standards are preferable to a European style high gas tax. So what do you think if it is an either/or situation, George?
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:26 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I suspect Thomas' antipathy for CAFE standards springs primarily from his relatively libertarian economic views. I fully agree with him on this point.

I have far more confidence in the ability of automobile manufacturers to design a selection of vehicles to meet the quite variable needs of a large population of motorists, than I do of governments - even the best of them. Bureaucrats everywhere think of the powers and perogatives of their department or agency first, and the efficacy and quality of the services they render last. If the best that German bureaucrats (in the GDR) could do with an automobile design was the Trabant, at a time when their private alternatives in the FRG were making Volkswagons, Mercedes (before the contemporary wave of electronic unreliability) and Porsches - all in much greater numbers, what hope can there be for others?

Government can influence the choices that people make in meeting their quite variable needs and wants through its power of taxation. However, even this can have unanticipates side effects, some of which have already been illustrated by miniTAX in his interesting posts.

Direct government involvement in the operation of businesses generally has more bad side effects than good direct ones - even under the best of circumstances. The current difficulties of Airbus, with its government contriolled boards is a good example of this point.


I would prefer the government not meddle too. However, Thomas was arguing that we replace the CAFE standards with a high fuel tax to accomplish the desired reduction in fuel use (and presumably therefore harmful greenhouse gas emissions.)

I have been arguing that the CAFE standards are preferable to a European style high gas tax. So what do you think if it is an either/or situation, George?
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:29 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I suspect Thomas' antipathy for CAFE standards springs primarily from his relatively libertarian economic views. I fully agree with him on this point.

I have far more confidence in the ability of automobile manufacturers to design a selection of vehicles to meet the quite variable needs of a large population of motorists, than I do of governments - even the best of them. Bureaucrats everywhere think of the powers and perogatives of their department or agency first, and the efficacy and quality of the services they render last. If the best that German bureaucrats (in the GDR) could do with an automobile design was the Trabant, at a time when their private alternatives in the FRG were making Volkswagons, Mercedes (before the contemporary wave of electronic unreliability) and Porsches - all in much greater numbers, what hope can there be for others?

Government can influence the choices that people make in meeting their quite variable needs and wants through its power of taxation. However, even this can have unanticipates side effects, some of which have already been illustrated by miniTAX in his interesting posts.

Direct government involvement in the operation of businesses generally has more bad side effects than good direct ones - even under the best of circumstances. The current difficulties of Airbus, with its government contriolled boards is a good example of this point.


I would prefer the government not meddle too. However, Thomas was arguing that we replace the CAFE standards with a high fuel tax to accomplish the desired reduction in fuel use (and presumably therefore harmful greenhouse gas emissions.)

I have been arguing that the CAFE standards are preferable to a European style high gas tax. So what do you think if it is an either/or situation, George? (And Thomas can't out libertarian me on most subjects. Smile)
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 12:29 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I suspect Thomas' antipathy for CAFE standards springs primarily from his relatively libertarian economic views. I fully agree with him on this point.

I have far more confidence in the ability of automobile manufacturers to design a selection of vehicles to meet the quite variable needs of a large population of motorists, than I do of governments - even the best of them. Bureaucrats everywhere think of the powers and perogatives of their department or agency first, and the efficacy and quality of the services they render last. If the best that German bureaucrats (in the GDR) could do with an automobile design was the Trabant, at a time when their private alternatives in the FRG were making Volkswagons, Mercedes (before the contemporary wave of electronic unreliability) and Porsches - all in much greater numbers, what hope can there be for others?

Government can influence the choices that people make in meeting their quite variable needs and wants through its power of taxation. However, even this can have unanticipates side effects, some of which have already been illustrated by miniTAX in his interesting posts.

Direct government involvement in the operation of businesses generally has more bad side effects than good direct ones - even under the best of circumstances. The current difficulties of Airbus, with its government contriolled boards is a good example of this point.


I would prefer the government not meddle too. However, Thomas was arguing that we replace the CAFE standards with a high fuel tax to accomplish the desired reduction in fuel use (and presumably therefore harmful greenhouse gas emissions.)

I have been arguing that the CAFE standards are preferable to a European style high gas tax. So what do you think if it is an either/or situation, George? (And Thomas can't out libertarian me on most subjects. Smile)
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 01:22 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
I would prefer the government not meddle too. However, Thomas was arguing that we replace the CAFE standards with a high fuel tax to accomplish the desired reduction in fuel use (and presumably therefore harmful greenhouse gas emissions.)

I have been arguing that the CAFE standards are preferable to a European style high gas tax. So what do you think if it is an either/or situation, George? (And Thomas can't out libertarian me on most subjects. Smile)


Consider, if you will the collective wisdom of our government's various actions to regulate our environment and energy consumption.

Through the provisions of the Clean Air Act the government has made it economically impossible to construct & operate any new coal-fired power generation plants in this country -- even though they are far more thermodynamically efficient than their alternatives, and consume less fuel per unit of useful energy delivered. Similarly the current regulatory regime makes it quite impossible to organize the capital required to license and build any nuclear power plants - even those needed to replace the ageing plants that today produce over 20% of our electrical power. The only new plants favored by the current regulatory regime (and as a result virtually all of those constructed in the last decade) are natural gas- fired turbine plants. They release less SOX & NOX (gases that REDUCE the greenhouse gas effect), but, because they are less efficient than compound boilers, release MORE CO2 per unit of energy produced than coal-fired plants.

Next the government restricts the development of proven oil and natural gas fields in our off shore regions and in Alaska, evidently preferring to increase the import of petroleum and LNG from South America and as far away as Australia.

Finally, when pressed the government regurgitates the various Department of Energy programs for sustainable energy. These programs have been around for decades now and have produced virtually nothing. They are, in fact, sustainable employment programs for useless bureaucrats in the most incompetent branch of our government.

I do believe that moderate increases in gasoline taxes are preferable to the renewed CAFE standards. I also agree with miniTAX that such taxation itself easily becomes a permanent fixture to a government addicted to it, and that at too high a level such taxes can have unanticipated adverse side effects.

Europe generally has much better mass transit systems than the United States. This is partly the result of much higher taxation of gasoline and still higher government subsidy for rail systems. They generally work quite well - as do many European social welfare systems - but they require heavy tax burdens, stifling the accumulation and application of risk capital and increasing the government's involvement in research and economic life - bad things in my view. There is growing evidence that these programs are not sustainable and have significant adverse social and economic side effects.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 01:45 pm
georgeob1 wrote:

Europe generally has much better mass transit systems than the United States. This is partly the result of much higher taxation of gasoline and still higher government subsidy for rail systems. They generally work quite well - as do many European social welfare systems - but they require heavy tax burdens, stifling the accumulation and application of risk capital and increasing the government's involvement in research and economic life - bad things in my view. There is growing evidence that these programs are not sustainable and have significant adverse social and economic side effects.


I certainly can follow the argumentation from your point of view .... and ideology.

Mine is totally different - especially here: the privatisation of railways has a significant social and ecoconomic side effect: ask those - private persons as well as businesses in e.g. Germany or (even better) the UK, who were/are affected by that.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 02:44 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
I would prefer the government not meddle too. However, Thomas was arguing that we replace the CAFE standards with a high fuel tax to accomplish the desired reduction in fuel use (and presumably therefore harmful greenhouse gas emissions.)

Not a high tax, just a higher tax than you now have. Many pages ago, I cited the work of William Nordhaus, an economist at Yale, to have some rational benchmark. Nordhaus has performed cost-benefit calculations on both global warming and the taxes that would be needed to curb it. One of his results is an "optimal" tax, in the sense that it manages the total damage from global warming and the tax.

That tax is remarkable for how low it is. It starts at 10 cents per gallon in 2010 and rises very gradually to something like 80 cent in 2100 (in constant dollars). For perspective, if current trends continue, we will be 10 times as rich in 2100 as we are today. So 80 cents in in 2100 reflect a similar share of our income as 10 cents today.

By the benchmark of Nordhaus's calculations, gasoline taxes currently are something on the order of 10 cents too high in America -- but they are on the order of dollars per gallon too high in Europe. Indeed, saying the optimal tax is 10 cents in 2010, rising to 80 in 2100 is pretty close the bumper sticker line I've been using for years: "Global warming is a problem, but it's not worth fixing given the cost of fixing it." Nordhaus merely turns the "not worth fixing" into a "not worth making a drastic effort in order to fix".

So, I am not in favor of a high gasoline tax. I am in favor of a small increase in America's current tax.
0 Replies
 
 

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