Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

Abstract

Heating in the ocean has continued in 2024 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, despite the transition from an El Niño to neutral conditions. In 2024, both global sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) reached unprecedented highs in the historical record. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2024 exceeded that of 2023 by 16 ± 8 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules, with a 95% confidence interval) (IAP/CAS data), which is confirmed by two other data products: 18 ± 7 ZJ (CIGAR-RT reanalysis data) and 40 ± 31 ZJ (Copernicus Marine data, updated to November 2024). The Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Ocean also experienced record-high OHC values in 2024. The global SST continued its record-high values from 2023 into the first half of 2024, and declined slightly in the second half of 2024, resulting in an annual mean of 0.61°C ± 0.02°C (IAP/CAS data) above the 1981–2010 baseline, slightly higher than the 2023 annual-mean value (by 0.07°C ± 0.02°C for IAP/CAS, 0.05°C ± 0.02°C for NOAA/NCEI, and 0.06°C ± 0.11°C for Copernicus Marine). The record-high values of 2024 SST and OHC continue to indicate unabated trends of global heating.

Abstract

Permafrost thaw poses diverse risks to Arctic environments and livelihoods. Understanding the effects of permafrost thaw is vital for informed policymaking and adaptation efforts. Here, we present the consolidated findings of a risk analysis spanning four study regions: Longyearbyen (Svalbard, Norway), the Avannaata municipality (Greenland), the Beaufort Sea region and the Mackenzie River Delta (Canada) and the Bulunskiy District of the Sakha Republic (Russia). Local stakeholders’ and scientists’ perceptions shaped our understanding of the risks as dynamic, socionatural phenomena involving physical processes, key hazards, and societal consequences. Through an inter- and transdisciplinary risk analysis based on multidirectional knowledge exchanges and thematic network analysis, we identified five key hazards of permafrost thaw. These include infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supplies, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants. The study’s novelty resides in the comparative approach spanning different disciplines, environmental and societal contexts, and the transdisciplinary synthesis considering various risk perceptions.

Civil court judges in The Hague ruled that the state is doing far too little to combat the damage to nature caused by nitrogen emissions, particularly from agriculture.

Abstract

Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we estimate a net death burden due to climate change increasing by 49.9% and cumulating 2,345,410 (95% confidence interval = 327,603 to 4,775,853) climate change-related deaths between 2015 and 2099. This net effect would remain positive even under high adaptation scenarios, whereby a risk attenuation of 50% is still insufficient to reverse the trend under SSP3-7.0. Regional differences suggest a slight net decrease of death rates in Northern European countries but high vulnerability of the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe areas. Unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented, most European cities should experience an increase of their temperature-related mortality burden.