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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Sep, 2006 03:31 pm
Quote:
Ice bubbles reveal...


On the positive side, this headline didn't reference "Fart Bubbles"
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Sep, 2006 08:39 pm
MiniTax is to be congratulated for his thorough knowledge of climatology.

Again, The point about regular recurrences of episodes like the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period in a roughly 1500 year climate cycle over the last 140,000 years bears out the evidence in the chart provided by MiniTAX. With reference to Steve 4100's post concerning the last 1000 years, Dr, Lomborg has repeatedly indicated that the 1000 year period is too short to reveal the relevant climatic pattern.

Richard A. Kerr 's Article "Climate change greenhouse forcing still cloudy" in "Science" 276:1.040-2 goes into detail on this point.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2006 12:20 am
miniTAX wrote:
Thomas wrote:
Not that I know of. I'm curious myself which events George is talking about.

Thoses on the graph, for example. Note for comparison purpose that current global temperature is 12°C... or 15°C or 16°C depending on the model.

Interesting. What is the source of this graph?
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2006 12:38 am
Thomas- If you search web for

www.geocraft.atmospheric co2( ppm) you can reference it.

And, the comment made by miniTAX is quite important, as I am certain you know--

He said--"12C or 15C or 16C depending on the model"

Of course, the IPCC has gotten into new scenarios. As Lomborg has written--P. 280

"...the modelers have explicitly abandoned the iead of predicting the future and instead talk about projections and possible futures. As one of the modeling groups fairly honestly point out, the IPCC scenarios are " an attempt at computer-aided story telling"
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2006 12:45 am
Thomas wrote:
miniTAX wrote:
Thomas wrote:
Not that I know of. I'm curious myself which events George is talking about.

Thoses on the graph, for example. Note for comparison purpose that current global temperature is 12°C... or 15°C or 16°C depending on the model.

Interesting. What is the source of this graph?


One of the pages by M. Hieb (here at Plants Fossils of West Virginia) I've aked about earlier:

Walter Hinteler wrote:


Monte Hieb (and Harrison Hieb): what is his (their) background in the field of climate science? Why does his/their site(s) link to a whole bunch of fossil-fuel info links/sites?

Why is none of his/their sites ubdated a couple of years? Why last revised in early 2003?

Why are his/their arguments the most valid and the most correct arguments?
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2006 12:57 am
Mr. Hinteler- I am sorry but your link does not work!!
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2006 01:01 am
Sorry for that.

This should work now

The chart is to be found among the images on the subpage Global Warming
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2006 02:31 am
Those damned energy men who dare to inform us Laughing
Maybe this graph from Lyon University is more credible ?
http://www.ens-lyon.fr/Planet-Terre/Infosciences/Climats/Rechauffement/Images/imageTCO2/CO2ttTpsNathan.gif
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2006 02:44 am
miniTAX wrote:
Those damned energy men who dare to inform us Laughing
Maybe this graph from Lyon University is more credible ?


The complete pages are to be found HERE - very good find, indeed, thanks!

(ENS Lyon seems to be credible :wink: )
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 12:40 am
Wonderful, miniTAX, I was unaware of the existence of those charts. Are they new?

I wonder if the "expert" Parados will try to challenge your evidence? I don't think he will since he resists meeting facts which controvert his prejudices head on!
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 12:46 am
BernardR wrote:
Wonderful, miniTAX, I was unaware of the existence of those charts. Are they new?


Quote:
première mise en ligne : octobre 2000
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 01:28 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Sorry for that.

This should work now

The link does work indeed. To answer your earlier question: I don't know what the author's credentials are. But the sources for the graph on the earth climate's history seem reasonably kosher. The source on temperatures is an article in a reputable scientific journal published by Yale University. The source on CO2 concentrations is an educational website -- Google's No.1 hit for "earth climate history". It doesn't reference much primary research literature. Nevertheless, I have every reason to trust it. C.R. Scotese, the website's author, has a publication history that shows he is a genuine expert in the field he is writing about. Moreover, the website has won prices from Scientific American and the National Science Teachers Association, both of whom I trust not to endorse charlatan crankery.

That makes miniTax's graph a credible one. In geological time -- hundreds of millions of years -- our CO2 levels and our temperatures both aren't that special.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 03:55 am
Thomas wrote:
That makes miniTax's graph a credible one. In geological time -- hundreds of millions of years -- our CO2 levels and our temperatures both aren't that special.
But surely the point is Thomas that we[/i]have not been around for hundreds of millions of years. We are interested in what will happen soon, the next few generations, and to get an indication we need to compare now with how the earths climate has behaved in the relatively near past...i.e. past thousands not millions of years. No?
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 04:28 am
No -- the point of this particular sub-thread was that George and Minitax submitted that Earth history knows climates much warmer, and CO2 levels much higher, than what we currently have. These climates are consistent with life on Earth or we wouldn't be there. In the broader context, this is relevant because it rebuts scare scenarios like "Earth will turn into Venus because too much heat gets trapped and water vapor feeds on warming feeds on water vapor.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 04:59 am
Well I accept that in geological time scales, the earth clearly has been a lot hotter than it is now. And that CO2 concentration has been higher too. If we were trillobites there would be no cause for alarm. But we are not and we should be.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 05:00 am
alarmed that is, not become trillobites Wink

though there are one or two already on a2k
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 05:51 am
and by sheer co incidence, your namesake Thomas said this recently at a meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science at Norwich

(Professor Chris Thomas, University of York)

Quote:
"If the most extreme warming predicted takes place we will be going back to global temperatures not seen since the age of the dinosaur," Thomas said.

"We are starting to put these things into a historical perspective. These are conditions not seen for millions of years, so none of the species will have been subjected to them before," he added.

Thomas said scientific observations had already found that -- as predicted by the climate models -- 80 percent of species had already begun moving their traditional territorial ranges in response to the changing climatic conditions.

"That is an amazingly high correlation. It is a clear signature of climate change," he said.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 09:29 am
Quote:
George and Minitax submitted that Earth history knows climates much warmer, and CO2 levels much higher, than what we currently have.


That's why I usually focus on Human history; it is more important in the long run than the history of the entire globe...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2006 08:15 am
Steve 41oo, quoting Chris Thomas, wrote:
Thomas said scientific observations had already found that -- as predicted by the climate models -- 80 percent of species had already begun moving their traditional territorial ranges in response to the changing climatic conditions.

I will accept, for the sake of the discussion, what Chris Thomas calls" the more extreme scenarios". Why would they be such a bad thing? What's so terrible about a future where elephants roam the tropical rainforests of England and Illionis? What's wrong with 22th century Londoners growing citrus fruits in their gardens, importing their strawberries from Greenland and Iceland? In fact, what's wrong with them starting up a new and improved London in Spitzbergen, where the climate will be just as in old, 20th century London?

My point is: Even if I accepted the most extreme global warming scenarios as gospels I don't see them as catastrophic for humanity. Human populations are very mobile on the timescale of centuries. (If we polled our fellow correspondents where their ancestors lived 100 years ago, few of the ancestors would live where the correspondents live now. In my case, none.) Most of the national capital stocks depreciate and get rebuilt several times over on this timescale. So while such warming would be a problem -- a fact I have never disputed -- I see it it as pure hype when people present it as a doomsday scenario.

All this is assuming that I accept the most paranoid projections as a given -- which I don't, for reasons I have discussed at length earlier.
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 03:31 am
Thomas wrote:

"Even if I accepted the most extreme warming scenarios as gospel, I don't see them as catastrophic for humanity"

end of quote

Yes, Thomas, and there is clear evidence that the extreme scenarios are being peddled with malice aforethought by the usual suspects. All the more reason for skepticism.

According to Bjorn Lomborg in his fine book- "The Skeptical Environmentalist( P. 319) the propaganda is coming thick and fast.

quote

"In the official summary( by the IPCC) the language was further toughened up to say that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. When asked about the scientific background for this change by the "New Scientist", the spokesman for the UN Environment Program, Tim Higham, responded very honestly: "THERE WAS NO NEW SCIENCE, BUT THE SCIENTISTS WANTED TO PRESENT A CLEAR AND STRONG MESSAGE TO POLICY MAKERS"
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