Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

Climate change will reach point of no return in 20 years, says expert

It's quite interesting on the other hand that you, Thomas, use scholar.google and accuse The Guardian of having mislead - but don't refer (as The Guardian and the others of today's British media did) neither to the BA (British Association for the Advancement of Science) nor to the [press releases of the] BA Festival of Science or the University of East Anglia.

According to everything what I've read about the meeting/festival, his publications and researches and how others criticise him, he seems to be quite an expert.

No idea - but might be, Smith published that in "Architecture in a Climate of Change" (2nd 2005), which seems to be a bible for architecture students.

I suppose, everything and everyone can be questioned, who's talking/speeching at that festival.

'The Threat to the Planet': An Exchange
By Richard A. Rosen, Ruth F. Weiner, Reply by Jim Hansen
In response to The Threat to the Planet (July 13, 2006)

article in today's independent highlights the rate of change[/i] of CO2 concentration as unprecedented. Sorry too lazy to find link, but from memory (which is infallible) it compared 30% rise in 1000 years in the past with 30% rise in 17 years now.

Steve 41oo wrote:

article in today's independent highlights the rate of change[/i] of CO2 concentration as unprecedented. Sorry too lazy to find link, but from memory (which is infallible) it compared 30% rise in 1000 years in the past with 30% rise in 17 years now.

What would you conclude Steve ?

Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Published: 05 September 2006

The rapid rise in greenhouse gases over the past century is unprecedented in at least 800,000 years, according to a study of the oldest Antarctic ice core which highlights the reality of climate change.

Air bubbles trapped in ice for hundreds of thousands of years have revealed that humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere in a manner that has no known natural parallel.

Scientists at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) in Cambridge have found there have been eight cycles of atmospheric change in the past 800,000 years when carbon dioxide and methane have risen to peak levels.

Each time, the world also experienced the relatively high temperatures associated with warm, inter-glacial periods, which were almost certainly linked with levels of carbon dioxide and possibly methane in the atmosphere.

However, existing levels of carbon dioxide and methane are far higher than anything seen during these earlier warm periods, said Eric Wolff of the BAS.

"Ice cores reveal the Earth's natural climate rhythm over the last 800,000 years. When carbon dioxide changed there was always an accompanying climate change," Dr Wolff said. "Over the past 200 years, human activity has increased carbon dioxide to well outside the natural range and we have no analogue for what will happen next.

"We have a no-analogue situation. We don't have anything in the past that we can measure directly," he added.

The ice core was drilled from a thick area of ice on Antarctica known as Dome C. The core is nearly 3.2km long and reaches to a depth where air bubbles became trapped in ice that formed 800,000 years ago.

"It's from those air bubbles that we know for sure that carbon dioxide has increased by about 35 per cent in the past 200 years. Before that 200 years, which is when man's been influencing the atmosphere, it was pretty steady to within 5 per cent," Dr Wolff said.

The core shows that carbon dioxide was always between 180 parts per million (ppm) and 300 ppm during the 800,000 years. However, now it is 380 ppm. Methane was never higher than 750 parts per billion (ppb) in this timescale, but now it stands at 1,780 ppb.

But the rate of change is even more dramatic, with increases in carbon dioxide never exceeding 30 ppm in 1,000 years -- and yet now carbon dioxide has risen by 30 ppm in the last 17 years.

"The rate of change is probably the most scary thing because it means that the Earth systems can't cope with it," Dr Wolff told the British Association meeting at the University of East Anglia in Norwich.

"On such a crowded planet, we have little capacity to adapt to changes that are much faster than anything in human experience."

The rapid rise in greenhouse gases over the past century is unprecedented in at least 800,000 years, according to a study of the oldest Antarctic ice core which highlights the reality of climate change.

Air bubbles trapped in ice for hundreds of thousands of years have revealed that humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere in a manner that has no known natural parallel.

Scientists at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) in Cambridge have found there have been eight cycles of atmospheric change in the past 800,000 years when carbon dioxide and methane have risen to peak levels.

Each time, the world also experienced the relatively high temperatures associated with warm, inter-glacial periods, which were almost certainly linked with levels of carbon dioxide and possibly methane in the atmosphere.

However, existing levels of carbon dioxide and methane are far higher than anything seen during these earlier warm periods, said Eric Wolff of the BAS.

"Ice cores reveal the Earth's natural climate rhythm over the last 800,000 years. When carbon dioxide changed there was always an accompanying climate change," Dr Wolff said. "Over the past 200 years, human activity has increased carbon dioxide to well outside the natural range and we have no analogue for what will happen next.

"We have a no-analogue situation. We don't have anything in the past that we can measure directly," he added.

The ice core was drilled from a thick area of ice on Antarctica known as Dome C. The core is nearly 3.2km long and reaches to a depth where air bubbles became trapped in ice that formed 800,000 years ago.

"It's from those air bubbles that we know for sure that carbon dioxide has increased by about 35 per cent in the past 200 years. Before that 200 years, which is when man's been influencing the atmosphere, it was pretty steady to within 5 per cent," Dr Wolff said.

The core shows that carbon dioxide was always between 180 parts per million (ppm) and 300 ppm during the 800,000 years. However, now it is 380 ppm. Methane was never higher than 750 parts per billion (ppb) in this timescale, but now it stands at 1,780 ppb.

But the rate of change is even more dramatic, with increases in carbon dioxide never exceeding 30 ppm in 1,000 years -- and yet now carbon dioxide has risen by 30 ppm in the last 17 years.

"The rate of change is probably the most scary thing because it means that the Earth systems can't cope with it," Dr Wolff told the British Association meeting at the University of East Anglia in Norwich.

"On such a crowded planet, we have little capacity to adapt to changes that are much faster than anything in human experience."

What i conclude minitax is that my memory is not infallible, just in case you thought i was serious.

You missed my point. What I meant is that even with constant CO2, the earth climate changed wildly in the past, hence CO2 is not that important in the warming, contrary to a popular belief.

miniTAX wrote:

You missed my point. What I meant is that even with constant CO2, the earth climate changed wildly in the past, hence CO2 is not that important in the warming, contrary to a popular belief.

Its not popular belief but considered scientific opinion. Whatever the exact mechanism, in the past, increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been followed by increased global temperatures. The sudden (in earth history terms) and unprecedented release of billions of tonnes of CO2 from burning fossil fuels will lead to global warming. The only debate is the magnitude of that change and whether mankind can adapt to it.

Of course, CO2 is just one of many factors which affect climate and global temperature. There could be stable CO2 levels, and other factors shift, leading to changes.

After reading George's last post, I wonder: though there have been significant events in the past leading to greatly increased CO2, have there been constant periods of emission such as we see today, as opposed to say a volcanic event(which can release tons, but in a short time period)?

After reading George's last post, I wonder: though there have been significant events in the past leading to greatly increased CO2, have there been constant periods of emission such as we see today, as opposed to say a volcanic event(which can release tons, but in a short time period)?

Not that I know of. I'm curious myself which events George is talking about.