okie wrote:Foxfyre wrote:There is growing evidence that oil is a renewable resource. Many geologists specualate that there is still as much oil in the ground for taking as has ever been known to be in the ground for taking. And the processes that formed oil in the past are still working, so new oil is undoubtedly being created as we speak. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that somebody somewhere is working on methods to hurry the process up.
There is plenty of oil to see us through the devleopment stage of new power sources and there will be plenty left over to make plastics which have their own environmental issues too. This is all good to know, too, especially if it turns out that oil isn't the big environmental villain that some seem to wish it to be.
The theory that oil is a renewable resource, I would caution you about this theory Foxfyre, it is controversial at best. Granted, oil is likely being formed right now, but conventional wisdom on this would indicate is a much slower process than the oil we are currently consuming.
In regard to oil reserves, I think it is safe to say that future discoveries have historically proven to far exceed expectations. The fact is though that the shallowest and most easily discovered oil fields have comprised most of what has been discovered already, and that future oil reserves will lie in deeper and harder to get areas, not the least of which would be offshore areas, as well as using further technology to squeeze more oil out of existing fields.
And further technology can and will begin making tar sand and oil shale deposits economically feasible. Tar sands are already being produced in Canada. Immense reserves are known in these deposits, but the rub comes in when you consider the extraction rate from the richest and most accessible portions of these reserves, thus considerably reducing the amount of oil we can project from these sources.
Bottom line is that as oil becomes costlier to produce, then more marginal reserves become economical, and this factor tends to grow the reserve base in tandem with causing other alternative energy sources to grow and become more competitive. The beauty of the free market is that this will be a gradual process in which the worst shocks to our economic system can be averted. There will be shocks, but I think they can be manageable.
And cyclops I would challenge you to realistically consider the environmental impacts of alternative energy wherein they produce all of the energy that oil currently does now. Even wind and solar is not nearly as benign as you think when you project the size and scope of the industry that would be required to replace oil.
No dispute on any of this. Nor does my post negate any of it. "Growing evidence' is not 'absolute evidence' but here's on testimony and theory from somebody claiming some expertise:
http://www.rense.com/general54/ssust.htm
and this:
http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20040608-092733-4642r.htm
and this:
http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/2005/09/02/energy_are_oil_and_natural_gas_renewable.htm
and this:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P89219.asp
There's lots and lots more but these, of various origin, make the point.
Admittedly, I think those who say that the process currently takes too long to consider oil supplies more than finite also make a very good argument. But I'm also thinking that those who say that the supply is sufficient for now and buys us time to develop and implement new power sources are also right. And I am intrigued by those who are now questioning whether crude oil is indeed a fossil fuel at all.
That the 'easy to get' oil is shrinking fast is a truth. But some years ago, my son was the chief engineer managing production of an enormous and played out sulphur mine in West Texas. He was given one year to increase production or the mine would close. He and his team did the research, experimented with prototype designs, and voila! They developed a system to triple production from that mine and it operated for ten more years providing good jobs for a lot of people. (The son is now making gasoline and other fuels for our gas guzzling cars.
)
There are scientists and engineers also working on ways to profitably extract all that 'hard to get' oil too.
As testified by Cyclops' TOS violating ad hominem, he has a really tough time with any new or different ideas or any challenge to his own peculiar view of the world. I know that you don't.
And if the theories being put out there are correct that oil is something different from what we have always been taught, then it might be feasible to devleop a way to actually make the stuff if we want to. Isn't there a way to make real honest to goodness diamonds now? You don't have to wait gazillions of years for the earth to make them the old fashioned way?
I have no problem believing we are using oil at a much faster rate than it is being created. But I have no problem looking at different ideas, theories, and concepts too. I believe those petroleum engineers and geologists who assure us there is plenty of oil for now. And unless we squander it trying to fight off the fanatical environmental wackos, we have the luxury of time to develop new fuel sources.
I don't believe for a minute that we have more than a fraction of the science that there is to be known.
