8
   

Do you think AI (artificial intelligence) is something to be feared?

 
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:01 pm
@Olivier5,
I think the whole thing is going to end up much like a global subway system and we'll all be the better for it.
Olivier5
 
  0  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:03 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

this is key

it can't be a bit of this and a bit of that

And how do you move from a situation where humans drive cars to another wherr all cars are self-driving, without some form of transition in between?
maxdancona
 
  2  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:04 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

Quote:
About 150 people died in car accidents (about a third of the total deaths) in Rome this year

And would you know how many would have died with self-driving cars? No you don't. In that sense, the proof will be in the pudding. No amount of theory will convince me at this point. I'll believe it when I see it.


We will know as we have data. The switch to self-driving cars is being done slowly and carefully. First simulations. Then limited use in carefully controlled areas. Then limited use in general. Then general use.

The first two steps in this process are going well.

NPR pointed out that people had the same reaction toward self-driving elevators. Elevators used to have operators, until electronics advanced enough where elevators were safer without operators.

Now, you step into a self-driving elevator without a second thought. Of course, cars are considerably more complicated than elevators... but we have had more than 100 years to advance the technology.

https://www.npr.org/2015/07/31/427990392/remembering-when-driverless-elevators-drew-skepticism
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:06 pm
@ehBeth,
There's a Belgium guy working on something like that. Each car is both autonomous and able to link up with any other car for part of the ride, so you end up with trains of cars. Sounds a bit crazy to me but doable.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:08 pm
@Olivier5,
region by region

one area at a time to transfer fully and completely

that would be my preference

__

you arrive in a non-driver area in a car you're driving?
out you get - transfer to a rental while you're in that region
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:09 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
We will know [when] we have data.

That's what I'm saying.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:10 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

There's a Belgium guy working on something like that. Each car is both autonomous and able to link up with any other car for part of the ride, so you end up with trains of cars. Sounds a bit crazy to me but doable.


sounds eminently sensible to me

an engineering prof of mine was working on a concept like that 40+ years ago. there's obviously much better technology available to make it happen now
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:11 pm
@Olivier5,
Australian road trains are a step in that direction.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:12 pm
@Olivier5,
Absolutely. In the USA there are maybe 3 cities that have decent subways which service maybe 20MM people.

You will concede that it will be easier to automate this country's car traffic then building subways nationwide.


Then there is always that whole last 1-4 mile problem. Subway stop to front door.
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:15 pm
@ehBeth,
I think more likely you'll see transition vehicles. Both with automated and driver functionality included. We're starting to see it now with radar controlled emergency braking and lane assist.

Gradually more and more of the driving will be automated, and then networked with other vehicles.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:16 pm
@ehBeth,
Sounds like a pretty big jump to do in one day, even for a region, with everybody having to get a new car all at once.

I would think a long period of co-driving will take place, with all cars having both capabilities (human and self drive) for half a century at the least, before they start to produce cars with no driving wheel.

This thing has to be tested in real life. Next to human drivers.
maxdancona
 
  2  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:16 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

Quote:
We will know [when] we have data.

That's what I'm saying.


Sure Olivier, I am only adding that we already have data... it isn't complete.. But, we have an increasing amount of data and it is looking awfully good. There is a reason that the big companies with access to the data are investing lots of money into self-driving cars.

Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:20 pm
@maporsche,
I'm not comparing subway vs cars in terms of their cost-effectiveness at national level... Just saying that subway trains (and elevators) are easier to automate than car traffic.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:22 pm
@maporsche,
I'm absolutely not in favour of that approach.

Doesn't mean it's not more likely - just means that based on the industry reading I do it's not something I'd support.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:24 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:
with everybody having to get a new car all at once.


the reality is that fewer and fewer people will have their own cars

we're already seeing it where I live - many people giving up car ownership to move to car shares

it's caused a noticeable difference in our immediate neighbourhood already
Olivier5
 
  0  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:25 pm
@maxdancona,
They invest in anything. It's not like each and every RD project yields a marketable product as quickly as every engineer and invester hopes.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:25 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:
Just saying that subway trains (and elevetors) are easier to automate than car traffic.


and the technology has leapfrogged in the last 50/100 years

maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:25 pm
@ehBeth,
That is happening a lot in Chicago too. My sister and girlfriend have forgone their vehicles and now solely use car sharing and public transit.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:29 pm
@ehBeth,
I see AI as being in its infancy. It's not yet a mature technology IMO.
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Fri 22 Dec, 2017 01:32 pm
@Olivier5,
You don't need much AI for automated driving.
 

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