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Design a temporal classification problem

 
 
Reply Wed 9 Aug, 2017 06:05 am
I want to solve a customer attrition problem for an insurance client (I cant share the data due to confidentiality). I have access to 3 years data for customer attrition, claim pattern, customer service calls, demographic etc. Now customer attrition can happen anytime during an year. There are 2 ways I thought of setting up the problem. 1. Fix a reference data e.g. 1 Nov'16. Dependent variable is customer churn (yes/no) in Nov'16-Jan'17. Independent variables duration can be taken from Nov'15-Oct'16 (past 1 yr) & time based features such as transaction in last 3 months can be created. (I use this approach mostly). Only challenge here is that if there is a seasonality in attrition (high in Oct) i can't capture that with this model and hence i will have to re calibrate it later for Oct. 2. Consider year 2016, create multiple rows per customer e.g whether he attrited in Jan-Mar'16, Feb-Apr'16 upto Oct-Dec'16 and create features from past. Append these row wise (10 row per customer per year). My doubt here is: Wouldn't we violate the i.i.d. condition here? Also there will be seasonality in features as for every row per customer, time based features would be from different duration. Can someone please give some intuition/mathematical reason behind which one is better (or if there is anything better). Please suggest some papers/books if possible. I don't want to use survival as client wants just a classification model.

Thanks a lot in advance.
 
emmett grogan
 
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Reply Wed 9 Aug, 2017 08:19 pm
You first, then I will show you mine.
Ponderer
 
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Reply Wed 9 Aug, 2017 09:46 pm
@emmett grogan,
So that's where our insurance money goes.
emmett grogan
 
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Reply Thu 10 Aug, 2017 10:52 am
@Ponderer,
To low bidding algorithm writers who try to free-source their date and collect a check! Either that or another student who tries to accomplish an assignment by dint of someone else's work.
Ponderer
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Aug, 2017 12:56 pm
@emmett grogan,
Sounds like the operative word is "problem". Glad it's not mine.
emmett grogan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Aug, 2017 04:27 pm
@Ponderer,
I look forward to these diversions.
Ponderer
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Aug, 2017 05:25 pm
@emmett grogan,
Beats all the divisions.
0 Replies
 
Ponderer
 
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Reply Thu 10 Aug, 2017 05:58 pm
@Rishi1988,
We are sorry that you got left out of this conversation and that we saw your question as inconsequential to us. I have no feeling of ignorance that I didn't understand the title. No one knows anything until they learn it, and I have had no reason to learn the inner workings of the insurance business. ( just as you have probably had no reason to learn how the lift and duration of the camshaft in an internal combustion engine relates to power band and torque curve of the engine.)
I do however understand that the "problem" concerns "customer attrition ".
My only contribution to the industry about the problem relates to my own experience with auto liability insurance. When one company raised my rate over 10% after 6 months, ( excellent driving record), I found a much better deal.
( paying 75% of previous rate. I believe his game was to ensure that I walk away from the table while he was ahead and therefore he would have no chance of paying a claim for me. He might have won that hand but the company lost a customer.
emmett grogan
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 12:19 pm
@Ponderer,
Somewhere in an insurance company actuarial spreadsheet is an exact mathematical description of your experience. It affects how much your premiums are and what the conditions of your insurance contract are.
Ponderer
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 12:40 pm
@emmett grogan,
I wish I had a check for all the money that have saved insurance companies by avoiding wrecks.
0 Replies
 
Ponderer
 
  3  
Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 12:48 pm
@emmett grogan,
My only claim was in the early '70s. I hit two parked cars to avoid hitting a guy who turned in front of me. Though it was his fault, since he wasn't involved in the wreck, he wasn't liable. ( or so they said at the time)
emmett grogan
 
  1  
Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 12:53 pm
@Ponderer,
Would it have been worth a lawyer and an expert witness or two?
Ponderer
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 01:15 pm
@emmett grogan,
Probably not. He was in front of me and started slowing down and moving to right. I thought he was going to turn into a parking lot. I downshifted my '68 Olds 442 ( red/ black vinyl top) and started around him. End of 442.
emmett grogan
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 01:37 pm
@Ponderer,
Sorry about that sweet ride. It could have been worth upwards of 100k right now.
0 Replies
 
emmett grogan
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 01:38 pm
How many more examples of temporal classification do we need to provide to that guy???
Ponderer
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 02:47 pm
@emmett grogan,
Four
0 Replies
 
Ponderer
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 03:01 pm
@emmett grogan,
I'm working on it. Do you think he wants it in Fahrenheit or centigrade?
emmett grogan
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 03:34 pm
@Ponderer,
In peristalsis.
Ponderer
 
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Reply Fri 11 Aug, 2017 03:37 pm
@emmett grogan,
How do you spell that? I have to look it up.
0 Replies
 
 

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