Steve (as 41oo) wrote:ok well you obviously know more about Dutch politics than I do. But if there has been a shift to the centre left in Holland, I very much doubt that reflects a more concensual attitude on the specific issue of Muslims and Islamism among ordinary Dutch voters.
Fair enough, you've definitely got a point there.
On a related note, I predict a very unpleasant election campaign next year when national elections are on. After all, having been stuck at 40% in the polls for years now, the right-wing government parties know they have little to hope from their socio-economic policy track record, in terms of popular appeal. The one issue they do still have a groundswell of popular support on is, you are right, immigration/integration exactly. So I wouldnt be surprised if the VVD would do everything it could to make the elections all about foreigners, asylum-seekers and crime.
I'm kind of afraid of that. To be honest, if I were them, I'd make plain-spoken Immigration Minister Verdonk, our own "Iron Lady", the new leader, and fight exactly such a rabble-rousing campaign. But it looks like they're shying away from that. The VVD's parliamentary leader Van Aartsen has just resigned in the wake of the disappointing local election results, but talk is of the centrist Rutte, rather than Verdonk, becoming his successor.
And actually - still replying to your point - even on this score these local elections do give me hope. You're right, it would be foolish to interpret the left-wing victory as a magnamonious gesture of multicultural tolerance. The voters swung to the left to such an unprecedented extent because they are fed up with the harsh
economic policies of the right-wing government, period. (Otherwise the Green Left would have profited as much as the Socialists now did.)
But - notably - apparently they didnt let the 'softer' image of the left on immigration
stop them either. It's supposed to be the big achilles heel of the left, and the VVD made for a last-minute grab at it by highlighting in an ad how Labour is silent and vague about integration and street crime - yet it made no difference whatsoever. Doesnt mean it will again fail to make an impact next year, but it does give hope.
Perhaps, in fact, we are seeing the opposite of the Fortuyn effect now.
Pim Fortuyn showed that with a populist, anti-immigration/muslims appeal, you could bore into a groundswell of 15-20% of support. But the alternative scenario is what you had in the UK. Duncan Smith and especially Howard went full for the crime/Europe/asylum-seekers card. And it had zero effect. In fact, Cameron is now having to go for a Blair-type reinvention of his Conservative Party to rid it from its "nasty party" image that solidified in the process. If Rutte becomes the new VVD leader, then the party apparently thinks the lesson to learn this time round is that of
Cameron, not Fortuyn.
I'll go even further. Of course the "lurch to the left" does not mean a frank popular endorsement of multicultural tolerance. But it does show that voters appreciate a balance in the message.
The voters liked the right because it was (or hastily turned) straight-shooting, no-patience, demanding on immigrant/integration. Adapt or go home. People liked that. But the message did come with a lot of harsh political manners, with polarised bitterness, intolerance bordering on heartlessness - and subsequent hostility in turn from black and Muslim youths. Society became a lot more divided and harsh.
It's not a fun country anymore - and outside the right-most quarter of the electorate, people dont only blame hardcore radical Muslims for that. They're well able to see the boorishness of the Fortuynist mindset too.
Now, on
top of that, the government also chose to go for an each-for-himself, harsh economic sanitation line, uprooting core values of the welfare state (health insurance, rent controls, early retirement).
Perhaps it's all TOO loud, too hard, too egoistic, too hostile. There's been a lot of discussion in the (christian- and social-democratic centre) on the need for a return to basic common decency, in the years since the riotous Fortuyn revolution. The turn to the left may not equate with a sudden re-embracing of multiculturalism or anything, but it does signal a groundswell of sentiment that, hey! - this has gone too far. Lets all behave a little again. Be at least borderline decent instead of everyone yelling at each other.
The politics of the Livables, the Fortuynists and the Verdonk-type VVD'ers is one of constant suspicion and resentment. In its world, kindness, trust and patience are suspect signs of weakness, or even unreliability in the face of the enemy (eh, sorry: "challenge"). By shifting left, a chunk of centrist voters is saying, way I perceive it: hell, of course integration is important - but, in Cohen's 'infamous' words, "keeping the whole kaboozle together a bit" is at least
as important.
Steve (as 41oo) wrote:But this relatively harmonious state of affairs masks the fact that the more extreme parties on the right have been effectively marginalised. Here apathy suits the establishment very well, because if the non voting apathetic working class suddenly took an interest in politics they would flock towards the extreme right.
True. That
is a car-crash waiting to happen. Although in your country the electoral system alone will prevent it. I dont know about Germany though <looks aside to Walter>. They looked to me like they still had their Fortuyn revolution to come. But perhaps they just got lucky and might escape still, as the political tide perhaps shifts back a little again).
Yes, what you describe is exactly what happened in Holland in '02. But the lesson this year might also be: such things pass again, too. Not without leaving scars (both good and bad), but ... they do.