Congratulations Sen. Kerry: Is it time already?

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With polls and polls of polls, data, details, evaluations, speculations, some real news, some rumors.....much inunendo......I think Kerry will get some 290+ ECV's.

Do you feel the same ......am I only dreaaaaaaaaamingggg?

Lets have your views!

Laughing

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Don't break out the champagne yet. Oh, I don't think that we will see the end of this for quite a while. I have a sneaking suspicion that we will have a replay of 2000!

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No repeat of 2000. Kerry is winning on all counts.

An alledged early leak of VNS data gives Kerry a lead at midday of the major swing states including PA, FL and OH.

Voting patterns show significantly higher rates of voting in Democratic precincts.

This is going to be a very good night!

www.dailykos.com

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Way too early to tell.

Gore was winning early in 2000.

"Voting patterns show significantly higher rates of the dead voting in Democratic precincts."

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Kerry is very strong in most of the northeast (all states above Virginia on the east coast). The state to watch in the northeast is New Jersey which is in a dead heat. If Kerry carried that state he will probably win with 277 ECV.

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How quickly you forget.

Gore was winning late in 2000.

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What time do the polls close? (and which time-zone as well please so I can convert to GMT). Thanks very much.

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Acquiunk.

I don't see it as being that close. I see Kerry winning OH, PA, WI and FL. My count gives him 305 electoral votes (this means he doesn't even need FL).

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Thanks for that link, ebrown. First I'd seen of that. Just checked Yahoo, an indirect mention there, too:

Quote:

Dow Dips, Others Inch Up on Internet Talk
25 minutes ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The blue-chip Dow average ended lower on Tuesday, while the other two indexes finished marginally higher after unconfirmed Internet talk about Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) doing well in exit polls triggered a sharp reversal late in the day.

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And from IEM

..........Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.264 0.288 0.288 0.130 0.299 0.191
DEM04_L52 0.371 0.398 0.395 0.301 0.400 0.332
REP04_L52 0.180 0.230 0.219 0.186 0.398 0.337
REP04_G52 0.079 0.099 0.100 0.050 0.163 0.119

Basically a bet that Kerry will win costs almost 60 cents (to win a dollar) and a Bush share is down to 32 cents (to win a dollar). The G52 and L52 split is a bet if the candidates will win by greater or less than 52% of the popular vote.

Just like I have been telling you, things are going to be just fine!

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ebrown-p
Kerry will probably win Florida but lose Ohio and Wisconson in which case New Jersey will be crucial.

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From www.dailykos.com

Quote:

4 p.m. exit polls
by kos
Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 20:41:53 GMT

Grain of salt, yadda, yadda...

These numbers come from Slate. I've taken out a couple numbers that are clearly from the first round:

NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46

I think turnout and voting patterns make OH look even better for Kerry and WI looks solid. I don't think NJ matters.

On IEM Kerry is now worth 85 cents to Bush's 31 cents.

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grand duke, this is for you link

the various times for the polls closing are somewhere in there. gotta run.

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ebrown_p

Ok so far but the heaving voting is generally between 4 and 8 pm

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Grand Duke wrote:

What time do the polls close? (and which time-zone as well please so I can convert to GMT). Thanks very much.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Interactives/Broadband/Polls_Close_320i2.gif

Eastern Time, so for Greenwich Time add ... five.

That means the first polls have closed ... right now?

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Too bad my home state of MI will probably go for Kerry. Bunch of liberal government teet suckers in Detroit.

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Thanks to ehBeth and nimh for the info. I'm not planning on sitting up all night for the results, but I guess by mid-morning tomorrow GMT it will all be over. Apart from the law-suits and general hoohah.