The Roll of The Dice... Election Uh-oh Four and...

... un-anticipated variables.

Various polls differ by a few points here and there, but they are fairly unanimous in indicating that the race is expected to be a close one.

There is even the possibility that the outcome may be decided in a way not inaccurately describable as "random".

How will weather influence the turnout and outcome?

A local meteorologist noted that the only significant weather event predicted for tomorrow in the US is the low pressure system moving into the Ohio valley.
Heavy rains were pelting the Texas and Louisiana coasts at midnight, dense moisture drawn in from over the Gulf by an upper-level low pressure system that deposited 32 inches of snow on one town in Colorado, and even some snow into northwestern Texas.

The area of weather disturbances is stalled by a ridge of high pressure to the East, but the rains are expected to move slowly tomorrow, trending toward the Northeast.

Drenching rains moving into Ohio are bound to affect the turnout in THAT "swing" state... might not the adverse weather keep more than a few voters indoors?

I speculate that the hard-core partisans (MOTIVATED voters) will turn out, but the voters who feel less passionately about the issues and the candidates are just as likely to skip the whole thing.

I wonder how many of the voters fit that "unmotivated" profile?

Do you think that it will affect the outcome in an important way?

(Kerry's "Home" team, the Boston Red Sox, just won their first World Series in 86 years... is that some kind of"omen" ?
Is it a portent of Victory for Kerry?)