At the holiday hideaways it's more talk than action
By Mike Seccombe
January 15 2005
Forget the political cliches about smoke-filled backrooms. In the mobile phone age, plotters can work anywhere. One Left faction heavy opines from the beach that Mark Latham knows he's a goner and is only holding on to the Labor leadership to try to organise the succession for Julia Gillard.
One from the Right, on holiday interstate, claims Kevin Rudd will get no support from his own faction in Queensland, and that the NSW Right is likely to shift, holus-bolus, to Kim Beazley.
Another apparently informed holiday-maker says that if Beazley and Rudd had any sense, they'd be approaching Gillard to run on a ticket with them.
Another says Gillard could win the leadership. Another says she won't even contest. Another says she really only wants to be deputy. Another says the deputy spot will not fall vacant. And one heroic individual even suggests there will be no leadership vacancy in the near future.
Technically, most of Latham's caucus colleagues are on holiday. But unlike him, they are communicating like mad. From holiday homes every possible leadership scenario is being discussed, every alternative leader. They are talking, informally, to each other and to the media.
Almost everyone is, as one Latham loyalist puts it, "flapping their chops" to almost anyone else who might have information to trade.
"They should remember," he says, "there is currently no vacancy. So someone will have to organise a challenge, and there is no evidence of preparation to do that."
Well, not yet, maybe. But there is ample evidence that people are lining up for a crack at Latham's job, on the assumption that, by one means or another, he will not be in it much longer.
The first question taxing Latham's party colleagues - the one which he could answer but so far has not - is just how sick he is. It is quite conceivable, given the nature of his illness, that he could suffer chronic, debilitating symptoms over a long period, or face a recurrence of them.
As unkind as it sounds, there are those in the party who think the least painful solution to Labor's problems would be if Latham, on his return to work in a couple of weeks, simply announced he was quitting for health reasons. On Friday night rumours were about in the party that Latham had privately expressed doubt about his capacity to go on.
But it is not Latham's health, but his leadership, that is the essential problem. Even if he comes back claiming a full recovery, it simply means he would have to be blasted out, several sources said on Friday.
Then there is the question of the succession. So far, a half-dozen names have cropped up as possible replacements: Beazley, Gillard, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Lindsay Tanner and Rudd. Of these, most attention on Friday was focussed on Beazley, Rudd and Gillard.
Beazley is the safe option. Said one caucus member on Friday: "Some people say it's a return to the past, but we gambled on Crean and we gambled on Latham, and if we gambled on someone else and they fell over, where would we be? At least Beazley is a known quantity."
Rudd is also, to an extent, a known quantity. He is known to be hard-working, sober, intelligent and stable. But not necessarily inspiring to the public. Some colleagues think he comes across as aloof and full of himself.
The person Latham himself wants, according to colleagues, is Gillard. She's smart, probably the best performer on her feet in the Parliament, but reasonably new to politics, having been in the house just seven years, and comes from the Left faction - which is not normally the crucible of leaders.
Gillard would be high-risk. But, when you look at the history of female Labor leaders in this country - think Joan Kirner, Carmen Lawrence - you see they get a go at only the direst of times. So she has got that going for her.
A sort of "vultures on holiday" story, hinge!
An interesting read. Thanks for posting it.
I like the idea of Gillard, but she'd be mad to do it this early ... as the article says, look what happened to Kirner, etc. Nah, too risky at this stage, Julia. Poison chalice!
Kim again? Puppet of the NSW Right. Please, no!
So Rudd, then? How come we know so little about him apart from the fact that he's so intelligent & hard working?
A thought: what if Latham returns to work & pronounces himself fully recovered? What then happens to all the plans & deals that are no doubt happening right now? It COULD happen.
They really have exposed themselves as a bunch of amateurs, haven't they?
I guess they are amateurs. I prefer that to the cynical professionals. Wow, I'm drawing sport parallels again. You can take the boy out the AIS but...
Maybe Bob Brown could be persuaded? :wink:
... and the word from Crikey:
. Latham: it's really over this time
Our man in the press gallery, Hugo Kelly, reads the last rites:
Back in 1966, BBC soccer broadcaster Kenneth Wolstenholme uttered the immortal words "they think it's all over," as England bounded towards World Cup glory at Wembley. "It is now," he added with elegant understatement as Geoff Hurst bamboozled the German defence and fired in his famous final goal.
When WA Attorney General Jim McGinty came out yesterday afternoon and explicitly urged Mark Latham to quit, the Latham camp must have felt like the German team in '66. A few hours later, Peter Beattie delivered the coup de grace, and Team Latham was reduced to the kind of rubble the Red Army might have found around the fuhrerbunker in April 1945.
Beattie told The 7.30 Report: "If Mark stands down because of ill health - and that's his decision - in my view there can only be one leader and that's Kim Beazley." Read it here.
The whispers have become a chorus: Earlier, McGinty had thown in his sledge ("To say that Mark Latham is an ailing leader is certainly true"); Bob Carr set a Friday deadline to sort the leadership out; and even Bob McMullan bobbed up to toss in his tuppence worth as you can see here.
Mark, it's over. Time to pack up the pancreas, retreat to the backbench with some dignity intact (you've done that before) and look after your health.
Frame it as a strategic retreat, if you must. Comebacks are possible: just ask Kim Beazley. And even successful comebacks are possible: just ask John Howard (and Franz Beckenbauer and Germany's 1974 Cup winning team).
Fighting on would be brave - and entertaining bloodsport for the media - but probably futile and ultimately counter-productive.
2. Beattie sets the hares running
Queensland Premier Peter Beattie returned from holiday yesterday and promptly went on The 7.30 Report with Maxine Mackew and boldly endorsed Kim Beazley to replace Mark Latham by the first week of February.
With Labor state governments copping weekly hidings in Newspoll, it is not surprising that Labor Premiers are leading the charge for change with Bob Carr wanting Latham gone by the end of the week.
Political vacuums always create crazy speculation and no one attracts more of it than Mark Latham. Remember how the bucks night video story took off last year. Well, emails are now starting to arrive referring to benders and black eyes. It's all rubbish, of course.
However, you really do have to wonder who on earth Iron Mark is listening to? If Paul Keating was holidaying with him at Terrigal, you would think the need for a statement and basic communication with colleagues would have been emphasised.
However, Keating was also famously dismissive of colleagues and remains deluded about his own abilities. The former PM addressed a group of bankers and their clients last year and was asked whether he gave the Howard government credit for anything?
"Nope, they're just running my franchise," he replied.
And when asked for his finest achievement in government? "How long have you got?"
Says it all, really. Maybe Mark Latham could become the first external partner in Paul Keating's lucrative consultancy which funds the never-ending renovation jobs he pursues on various pet projects.
`
Latham may go in 24 hours: Carr
January 18, 2005 - 10:36AM/SMH
Ailing federal Labor leader Mark Latham was expected to step down from his position possibly within the next 24 hours, NSW Premier Bob Carr said today.
And former ALP leader Kim Beazley was an interested and credible candidate for the top job, he said.
Pressure is mounting on Mr Latham to end the speculation over the leadership, sparked by last week's announcement he was suffering from a second bout of pancreatitis.
As the federal malaise threatened to disrupt Labor's dominance across state and territory governments, Mr Latham has been urged to draw a line in the sand over his leadership.
Labor foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd - who is in Jakarta and told ABC yesterday he was there to discuss the tsunami and not the Labor leadership - said today his party could become a "laughing stock" if the leadership crisis was not resolved immediately.
After NSW Premier Bob Carr said Mr Latham was expected to resign within 24 hours, Mr Rudd agreed the federal leader must clarify his position as soon as possible.
I think what Bob's reflecting is a view across the show that we have to resolve this thing quick smart," Mr Rudd told Sydney radio 2UE from Jakarta.
Queenslander Mr Rudd, himself considered a potential future leader, said he was sympathetic towards Mr Latham for a second crippling bout of pancreatitis.
But he said Mr Latham, who has made no public comment this year, must come forward with an update on his condition and any impact it has on his ability to lead the party.
"We are in a dreadful situation at the moment," he said.
"We have to clarify the situation of the leadership. The ball is very much in Mark Latham's court.
"We've got to the stage where Mark needs to make plain whether he can be back on deck by Oz day, or whether he can't."
Earlier today, Mr Carr told Radio 2UE.: "I think there's an expectation now as this concern has gathered pace over recent days that he will do that (step down).
"(There's an) expectation that his silence means that he's reached a decision to move on.
"I would think the party would be expecting it and the party would welcome it, and we say that out of all concern for him and his family given the obviously serious health condition that the Lathams are now coping with."
When asked if he believed it would be in the best interests of the party for Mr Latham to step down, Mr Carr said; "I not only believe it, I think that's the consensus that's emerged within the Labor Party.
"Indeed I'd go a step further. I think there's an expectation that that is going to happen," he said.
There was also an expectation Mr Latham should step aside sooner rather than later, he said.
"Labor's on the canvass, I think we wanted after October 9 some evidence of a plan for federal Labor to reconstruct and to pull together," he said.
"The vacuum that we're now experiencing delays that ..."
Kim Beazley was a prime candidate for the top spot, Mr Carr said.
"I don't think it's appropriate for state leaders ... to baptise people," he said.
"I'd simply say at this stage Kim Beazley is off running, running strongly. That's the impression I've got.
"Kim Beazley is undoubtedly interested and I think Kim returning to the leadership gives that stability we're all seeking.
"I think Beazley's got a lot of credibility across the board."
When asked if changes could be expected within 24 hours, Mr Carr replied: "I've got that instinct from talking to people that an announcement is sooner rather than later".
He has a choice?
What was it that Richard Carlton (I think?) once said to Bob Hawke? Something about how did it feel to have "blood on his hands"?
Why am I reminded of this right now?
Ugly, ugly stuff!
Yall in Oz sure do stay busy duing your summer holiday season. I have learned a lot from yall's most recent posts about who the various folks are ready to jump in when someone else (someone else, of course) inflicts the mortal wound on Mr Latham. I do have a question or two but I guess that that can wait until the corpse is cold.
Are yall thinking that Mr Latham will be out by Monday? Or will it drag on? -rjb-
Latham is no more.
Big Kim will be stepping up for another swing.
I am starting to think Little John may just end up beating Menzies' record....truly depressing.
Why Latham quit
January 18, 2005 - 3:23PM/the AGE
The statement released by Federal Labor leader Mark Latham detailing the reasons for his resignation from both the Labor leadership and from parliament.
A number of colleagues have asked me to address the uncertainty concerning the Labor leadership. While I had planned to reassess things at the end of my leave period on 26 January, the ongoing speculation is damaging the Party and needs to be dealt with now.
Obviously I am disappointed with the press coverage over the last fortnight. Despite being on annual leave and recovering from illness, the media have been constantly camped outside our home.
In recent days, I have been able to get away to rest and recover and talk to my family about our priorities for the future. Our conclusion is that I should look after my health and pursue a normal life outside of politics. Therefore I have decided to resign both as Labor Leader and Member for Werriwa.
I have had a well-publicised problem with pancreatitis that has been hard to overcome. This condition and the uncertain timing of the attacks are incompatible with the demands and stresses of a parliamentary life.
When I was hospitalised in August, for instance, the media frenzy was over the top, with photographers shooting through my hospital window. Accordingly, I have done everything I could to keep subsequent episodes as private as possible.
Unfortunately ever since the recent bout became known, and even though I was on annual leave, the media has been harassing people in our street, forcing our neighbours to call the police on several occasions.
Obviously this situation cannot continue. Public office can take it out of people and, after 17 years and two serious life-threatening illnesses, the time has come to put my family and my health first. While it is important to try to help people through community involvement, this should not be at the expense of loved ones.
I am exceptionally fortunate to have a fantastic family, especially my beautiful wife and two little boys. I would be crazy to put this at risk. In politics everyone talks about family values. I would like to practice them in a normal way.
I want to thank the Labor party for the opportunity of leading it to the last election and trying to form a Labor Government. I hope that my colleagues can achieve this vital goal in the future and I wish them well.
I am proud that, even from opposition, we achieved some important reforms in 2004, such as the reform of parliamentary superannuation, changes to the US trade agreement, improved childhood immunisation, a baby care payment and placing the importance of early childhood development on the national agenda. I did my best to lead a genuinely progressive Australian Labor Party.
I wish to thank the people of Werriwa for the opportunity of representing them since 1994 and putting something back into our local community.
I also thank the local Labor party members and particularly my staff, who have worked so hard both in the electorate and in Parliament House.
I again thank the Labor supporters and members who backed our cause in the last campaign and gave me encouragement as Labor Leader.
Thank you all very much
`
Kim, huh?
Well, let's hope that, at least, he retains the best of Latham's policies.
An interesting read from Michelle Grattan. I don't agree with parts of her analysis, though.
The end of an experiment
January 19, 2005/the AGE
The Labor Party gambled once. It probably won't again, says Michelle Grattan.
Mark Latham flamed into Labor's leadership, and he's flamed out even more spectacularly. His quitting Parliament is a last dramatic political gesture, leaving his successor the burden of an unwanted byelection.
The past few days have been appalling for the Labor party. There's just one bright side. Within several weeks of the election, it became clear that Latham almost certainly wouldn't lead Labor into the 2007 election. But it was possible he might hang on for some time, making a long period of debilitating instability likely. That has been short-circuited.
What are the lessons of the failed Latham experiment? Two big ones. Labor misread the electorate, and it misread its candidate.... <cont.>
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Opinion/The-end-of-an-experiment/2005/01/18/1105810911526.html?oneclick=true
I still think Beazles is a very unattractive candidate. So he should probably win the next election - god knows howard is awful and he keeps winning....
For the record Beazles spoke at my graduation ceremony when he was the minister for communication. ZZZZZZZZ.
