News & discussion on house and senate races

Hey, check this out - I didnt know that you could bookmark selections you make on the NYT Election ratings map under their own URL's. See if this works:

Selection of the House districts where last time round, a Republican won, and where Bush won both in '00 and in '04, but that are now rated as toss-up or leaning Democratic

Click that, watch the map change and see them. There's 20 in all.

Now, what is interesting about this?

They're not tremendously geographically concentrated, though I think I commented before on the degree that they are. 3 in the state of New York, 4 in PA-OH-IN, 3 in IA-MN-WI.

Of the remaining 10, eight are in the South, if you take the widest definition: TX, KY, VA, GA, FL. There's one in Kansas and one in Arizona.

But. There's other interesting stuff.

All 20 of these true-red districts now trending towards Democratic are majority-white (just click the checkbox "black" or "hispanic" - no extra districts appear).

Click the checkboxes under "Urbanization" and see: over half of them (11) are rural or mixed. If you click on the districts, you will see in the info and map that appear at the bottom that many are sprawling districts around the countryside.

Another 7 are suburban. Only two are urban districts.

17 of these districts are middle class ($30-50K).

It's the heartland.

Reliable electors of Bush and Republicans in recent years. Now thinking twice.

Very encouraging.

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Christian Defense Coalition: Many evangelicals 'feel used, taken for granted' by GOP

RAW STORY
Published: Wednesday November 1, 2006

Many evangelicals "feel used and taken for granted by the Republican Party," according to a release issued by the Washington, D.C. based Christian Defense Coalition.

"If Republicans lose the House or Senate, they only have themselves to blame," said the group's director, Rev. Pat Mahoney, who was formerly with the anti-abortion group Operation Rescue. "They have failed to energize and empower faith and value voters which provide a critical base of support for the Republican Party."

Rev. Mahoney claims that many evangelicals believe that the Republican Party "courts them during elections and then abandons and ignores them after the election is over."

According to another press release issued by the group, the Christian Defense Coalition will lead a prayer vigil on the lower western plaza of the United States Capitol this Sunday "to seek God's blessing, guidance and direction for the most important mid-term elections in many years."

The Coalition believes that even after years of GOP control of the House, Senate and White House, "there is little to show in the area of real change in Washington" which "translates into a lack of passion and energy for the mid-term elections."

"Comments I often hear are thing like; 'Why should I pass out literature in the freezing cold or the pouring rain?'" Mahoney said. "'Or, spend hours manning a phone bank for candidates that deliver so little.'"

"Republican leadership can no longer assume that the faith community will vote for them just because they are 'Republicans,'" the press release continues.

The Coalition also plans to "help organize" a day of prayer at the United States Supreme Court beginning on Tuesday, November 7th through the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban arguments on November 8th.

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Quote:

Former chief adviser Ed Rollins, who managed Ronald Reagan's reelection to the White House in 1984, said working for Harris was like "being in insanity camp." He likened her staff to dogs that have been kicked.

Rollins is easily one of the most effective Republican operatives of this generation. And tough-he was a former amateur boxer. If even he can't take Harris, that is saying something.

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In Lamont Race, Bitter Democrats Do Pre-Mortems Link

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I posted this first in the Lieberman thread, but I think it is appropriate to repeat here.

I agree with you that it does not seem likely that Lamont will win, judging by the polls.

However, I am not willing to throw in the towel just yet. There are some things which support at least the possibility of a Lamont victory.

A) State races are notoriously volatile. I remember when Reagan ran against Carter, Michigan flipped 10 points in the space of one weekend. When Christy Todd Whitman ran against James Florio for the New Jersey Governor's race, she ran 10 points or more behind for the whole race, and the last day several polls had her 10 points back. Only one had her even. Whitman won the election. State races can go one way or the other with breathtaking speed.

B) Lieberman's victory depends on Republicans almost completely abandoning their candidate and voting for him. Republicans have voted against Lieberman three times for the Senate. Yes, national Republican leaders have strongly hinted that they don't mind if you vote for Lieberman. Yes, Connecticut Republicans are telling pollsters, in large numbers, that they in fact are going to vote for Lieberman.

But next Tuesday, Republicans will be asked to go into the privacy of the voting booth, and pull the lever for the guy they have voted against for 18 years. They will be asked to ignore the fellow from their own party who is fighting an incredible uphill battle not only against an incumbent Senator, but apparently against a party leadership determined to abandon him after he won the nomination. For a Republican, to pull the lever for Schlessinger is not only to vote your heart-it is a vote for the underdog.

Saying that you are going to give up party loyalties for strategic purposes and actually doing it on Election Day are two different things. Maybe it will happen-that Republicans will vote for Lieberman. But I'm not giving up until I see it happen.

C) The mood of the country at the time of Election Day is important, and right now it looks pretty bleak for the GOP. Iraq is getting worse day by day, and the economy is going down. I'm getting the same feeling I got in 1992 when Clinton came back. Early in the campaign, the Reagan-Bush administration had become so entrenched it seemed that nobody was going to challenge it. Toward the end, with bleak news coming in for months, it turned around for Clinton. I remember just before the election, Bush senior got rejected by the Congress on some cable TV bill. It became a symbol that the President was not getting respect on Capitol Hill. Right now, Bush junior is getting defections from his Iraq policy all over the place. It is the same kind of feeling.

I'm not expecting a Lamont victory on Election Day. But I think he's still got an honest shot. Polls for statewide races have been shockingly off before, and Lieberman's large lead is resting on uncharted electoral ground.

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kelticwizard wrote:

Saying that you are going to give up party loyalties for strategic purposes and actually doing it on Election Day are two different things.

That's why I can confidently predict that the GOP will keep control of both houses. (That and the fact that I know the numbers from the early voting/absentee ballots and our GOTV efforts have paid off).

kelticwizard wrote:

I'm not expecting a Lamont victory on Election Day.

Neither is Lamont, it appears.

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Here is the complete text of the Proposed Constitutional Amendment in Virginia (the Marshall-Newman amendment):

Article 1. Bill of Rights
Section 15-A. Marriage.

Ballot Qestion Number 1

Shall Article 1 (the Bill of Rights) of the Constitution of Virginia be amended to state:

"That only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid in or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions.
"This Commonwealth and its political subdivisions shall not create or recognize a legal status for relationships of unmarried individuals that intends to approximate the design, qualities, significance, or effects of marriage. Nor shall this Commonwealth or its political subdivisions create or recognize another union, partnership, or other legal status to which is assigned the rights, benefits, obligations, qualities, or effects of marriage?"

(For the record, Johnboy will be voting "No." The second paragraph in general and the second sentence in that paragraph in particular don't sit well with me at all, but I am resigned to the conclusion that the amendment will pass by a large majority).

What I find significant is that this amendment may end up causing a much larger turnout of voters next Tuesday, with unpredictable consequences for the Senate race betwwen Mr Allen and Mr Webb. While Allen (r) is in favor of it, Webb (d) is opposed. But neither is making it a pillar of the campaign. They would rather, it seems, not be too closely identified with it one way or the other.

And I can see why. Earlier this week local ministers from some churches (Episcopal, Unitarian, Methodist) as well as the rabbi from the synagogue signed a letter urging a "no" vote. Meanwhile people in many black and many conservative white congregations will be urged in sermons this Sunday to turn out to vote "yes" on this "moral issue."

I can't prove it, but I think it is going to help Webb.

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kelticwizard wrote:

I'm not expecting a Lamont victory on Election Day.

SirraSong wrote:

Neither is Lamont, it appears.

Don't know where you got that from. Here is a Lamont quote from your own article:

Quote:

"On November 7th, we're going to rock the boat."

Doesn't sound like he's given up to me. Nor should he. Lieberman's lead might be 12 points, but it is on the shakiest ground I have ever seen-depending on the GOP candidate to score in single digits!

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kelticwizard wrote:

Saying that you are going to give up party loyalties for strategic purposes and actually doing it on Election Day are two different things.

SierraSong wrote:

That's why I can confidently predict that the GOP will keep control of both houses.

Really? Are there other races where the party leadership is abandoning their candidate and urging the voters to vote for an independent, (who was rejected by the opposing party in the primary). Please point these out to me.

And please don't tell me that you know where these races are, there are a lot of them but you aren't going to tell me, I'll just have to find them on the internet myself. Razz

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Quote:

."

He just never figured out that a millionaire opportunist plays well with champagne "progressives" in the primaries but carries no water with Reagan Democrats who have to work for a living.

As the article points out, Jon Carry is a Lamont fan (surprise!). Maybe he'll be invited to say a few words on Ned's behalf? Smile

+

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Quote:

Mark Blumenthal on October 30, 2006
Majority Watch Mashup

[..] the new Majority Watch surveys released today provide another strong indicator of recent trends, in this case regarding the race for the U.S. House. The partnership of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics released 41 new automated surveys conducted in the most competitive House districts.

Since they conducted identical surveys roughly two weeks ago in 27 of the 41 districts, we have an opportunity for an apples-to-apples comparison involving roughly 27,000 interviews in each wave. The table below shows the results from both waves from each of those 27 districts. The bottom line average indicates that overall, the Democratic margin in these districts increased slightly, from +1.9 to +2.7 percentage during October.

Whatever one may think of their automated methodology, the Majority Watch surveys used the same methodology and sampling procedures for both waves. And as with the similar "mashup" of polls in the most competitive Senate races in the previous post, these also show no signs of an abating wave.

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Montana suddenly's getting close again.

The last Rasmussen poll (out today apparently, but end date of polling 10/26) had Tester's lead on Burns down to three percent: 51%/48%.

Also out today, another poll, end date 10/30, had Tester's lead down to just the one percent: 47%/46%.

Before Republicans get too hopeful though - it's a Zogby poll. You don't believe those.

Virginia, on the other hand, looks ever better for a long shot.

Of the six polls with the cut-off date at 10/27 or later, Democratic challenger Webb leads in five. Those are six polls by six different pollsters. Webb's lead varies from 1% (Zogby) to 5% (Rasmussen).

I'm still pessimistic about the Dems taking the Senate though, because this is how it goes: one race turns up, the other down, there's always one that gets away. The Dem challenge - to hold all their own and take six of the seven competitive races - seems just too big for any party to get away with.

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Yeah, but who thought there would even be a chance in the senate two months, hell, a month ago?

Not I.

Cycloptichorn

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True, true.

This is interesting:

Quote:

In the new New York Times/CBS News poll -- the last to appear before Tuesday's election -- more respondents said that the threat of terrorism would increase if the Republicans retain control of Congress than said that the threat would increase if the Democrats take control. A majority said control of Congress won't change the terrorist threat much either way.

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And: Arizona - really??

Quote:

According to National Journal's Hotline, [Chuck] Schumer's DSCC will release a memo today in which its pollsters say that Democrat Jim Pederson is leading Republican incumbent Jon Kyl by four percentage points among Arizona residents who have participated in early voting there. Schumer's response: Buy as much TV time as possible in Phoenix and Tucson in the hopes of picking up another Senate seat and/or building some protection in case something goes south somewhere else.

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SierraSong wrote:

He just never figured out that a millionaire opportunist plays well with champagne "progressives" in the primaries but carries no water with Reagan Democrats who have to work for a living.

Excuse me, but aren't you gloating quite a lot for someone who represents a party whose candidate is polling in the single digits?

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Sorry for interrupting with probably a frivolous question without merit, but this has got me curious.

Does anyone know if Pelosi actually made the statement Dornan claims? Is there proof or does Dornan just claim she made the statement to him in a private conversation to him during a house floor vote?

"[W]hat would you do if your daughter was raped by a black man?

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Quote:

In the final leg of the midterm election campaign, it was at once a confident bet and a glaring indicator of the party's financial disadvantage. If Democrats take control of at least one chamber of Congress after Tuesday, the debt will rapidly be repaid. If not, the party would face an unwelcome burden for the 2008 presidential cycle.

In the money chase, the Republican Party retains its customary superiority for the final barrage of advertising and efforts to turn out voters.

But the political impact of the GOP's money advantage has been blunted this year by stronger-than-usual Democratic fundraising that has narrowed the funding gap and an electoral climate that is working against congressional Republicans, analysts said.

As of Oct. 18, the Republican National Committee and its House and Senate campaign committees had raised a combined total of $435 million and were headed into the final weeks with a cash balance of $49 million. Democrats had raised $333 million and had a cash balance of $32 million.

"What's noteworthy is how competitive Democrats have been. They've been able to provide the money that their candidates in competitive races needed, when they needed it," said Anthony Corrado, a political science professor at Colby College in Maine.

Report online in today's Chicago Tribune:
Democrats dig up money - But GOP still retains advantage in funding

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"Narrowed the gap" is right.

The Republican lead in money has gone from having over twice as much as the the Democrats to having a mere 31% more. That is not much.

That is a very, very illuminating fact and presentation. Thank you, Walter.

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As far as Dornan's anecdote - I can't think of when the caution to "consider the source" seemed more appropriate.

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