News & discussion on house and senate races

The curse of Bush

[..]Based on entries on the White House Web page, we've tried as best we can to re-create the president's campaign schedule for the two weeks leading up to Election Day. Bush visited Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia, Texas, Montana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Kansas, Arkansas and Texas. That's a lot of states; the candidates he backed in them might wish it had been fewer.

Oct. 24: Bush campaigned for Republican House candidate Vern Buchanan in Florida. Buchanan lost.

Oct. 26: Bush campaigned for Republican Senate candidate Mike Bouchard in Michigan. He lost. Bush also campaigned for Iowa House candidate Jeff Lamberti. The president kept calling him "Dave," but he lost, too.

Oct. 28: Bush campaigned for Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel in Indiana. He lost.

Oct. 30: Bush campaigned for Max Burns in Georgia and Shelley Sekula-Gibbs in Texas. He's losing; she lost.

Oct. 31: Bush campaigned for Mac Collins in Georgia. He's losing.

Nov. 2: Bush campaigned for Sen. Conrad Burns in Montana. He's losing.

Nov. 3: Bush campaigned for Steve King for Congress and Jim Nussle for governor in Iowa and for Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri. King won, Nussle lost, Talent lost.

Nov. 4: Bush campaigned for Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado. She won.

Nov. 5: Bush campaigned for Adrian Smith in Nebraska and Jim Ryun in Kansas. Smith won. Ryun is losing.

Nov. 6 Bush campaigned for Rick Perry in Texas and Asa Hutchinson in Arkansas. Perry won, Hutchinson lost. Bush also campaigned for Charlie Crist in Florida, but Crist ditched the president in favor of his own event at the other end of the state. Good call: He won.

Congressional Quarterly Politics - Election Night News Updates

8:54 PM; Nov. 07, 2006

• Greg Giroux is on C-SPAN right now discussing races in Kentucky.

• At Bob Corker's victory party in Tennessee, attendees are doing the Hustle as they wait to find out if Corker, a Republican, won the Senate race. Our guess is they're feeling optimistic.

9:13 PM; Nov. 07, 2006

• Democrat John Yarmuth has defeated Republican Rep. Anne M. Northup in Kentucky's 3rd District. This is a big one: Other Democratic pickups tonight have been expected, but we had this race ranked Leans Republican. This is also the first of our bellwether races to be decided.

9:26 PM; Nov. 07, 2006

• As expected, Democrat Sherrod Brown has defeated Republican Sen. Mike DeWine in Ohio, for the Democrats' second Senate pickup. They need four more to take control.

• In Indiana 2, Democrat Joe Donnelly has defeated Republican Rep. Chris Chocola.

• In Illinois, Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich has defeated Republican Judy Baar-Topinka, despite some controversy over hiring practices in the incumbent's administration.

10:14 PM; Nov. 07, 2006

• Former Democratic Rep. Baron P. Hill is returning to Congress after defeating incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel in Indiana's 9th District.

• Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, who opted for an independent bid after losing the Democratic primary, has won re-election over the man who defeated him for the Democratic nomination, Ned Lamont. Lieberman has said he will be serve as a Democrat.

• In Rhode Island, Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse has defeated Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee, ending the Chafee family's nearly 30 year hold on the seat.

• Democrat Paul Hodes has defeated Republican Rep. Charles Bass in New Hampshire's 2nd District.

10:45 PM; Nov. 07, 2006

• CQ reporter Daphne Retter reports from the National Republican Senatorial Committe: The scene at the NRSC was a far cry from that of the DSCC. While thousands of Dems crammed into a hotel ballroom with a live band, less than a dozen reporters sat in a bright room with four television tuned to Fox news at NRSC headquarters. Elizabeth Dole generally remained in an upper floor of the building, coming down a few times to do interviews.

• Democrat Zack Space has defeated state Sen. Joy Padgett in Ohio's 18th District, representing another Democratic pickup, this time for the seat held until a few days ago by convicted Republican Rep. Bob Ney.

10:55 PM; Nov. 07, 2006 11:09 PM; Nov. 07, 2006

• Republican Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. has been defeated by Democrat Ron Klein in Florida's 22nd District.

• Democrat Michael Arcuri has won the open seat in New York's 24th District, defeating Ray Meier. The seat was left open by retiring Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert.

11:17 PM; Nov. 07, 2006

• One of the night's biggest upsets so far: Democrat Carol Shea-Porter has defeated Republican Rep. Jeb Bradley in New Hampshire's 1st District. This means the state's entire House delegation has switched from Republican to Democratic in one night.

11:37 PM; Nov. 07, 2006

• Republican Rep. John Sweeney (New York 20) has conceded to Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.

• In Pennsylvania's 4th District, Democrat Jason Altmire is leading Republican Rep. Melissa A. Hart. A few weeks ago, this would have been seen as very unlikely.

• We're not going to make any official announcments yet, but to put it mildly, this is not shaping up to be a good night for the Republicans.

12:05 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• Democratic Rep. Rahm Emanuel, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee just finished giving his victory speech. His Senate counterpart, New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, is energizing the crowd as his party awaits returns in Virginia, Montana and Missouri.

• In Iowa's 1st District, Democrat Bruce Braley has defeated Republican Mike Whalen, taking the seat left open by retiring GOP Rep. Jim Nussle.

12:50 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• In Kansas' 2nd District, Democrat Nancy Boyda has defeated Rep. Jim Ryun. This is the second race that CQ had ranked Republican Favored in which the GOP incumbent lost. The other was Carol Shea-Porter's win in New Hampshire 1.

• Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth has lost to Democrat Harry Mitchell in Arizona's 5th District.

• Here's a few races that are proving too close to call right now: Virginia Senate, Missouri Senate, Pennsylvania 8, Florida 13, Georgia 8, Georgia 12, Connecticut 2

1:09 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• Democrat Harold Ford Jr.'s loss to Republican Bob Corker in the Tennessee Senate race means Democrats have to sweep Montana, Virginia and Missouri to win Senate control. A 50-50 Senate is a distinct possibility.

• Democrat Steve Kagen has emerged victorious in Wisconsin's 8th District, defeating Republican John Gard. He will replace Republican Rep. Mark Green, who lost his bid for governor tonight.

1:26 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• In the battle over former Rep. Tom DeLay's seat in Texas' 22nd District, Democrat Nick Lampson has defeated Republican write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.

• Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht has lost to Democrat Tim Walz in Minnesota's 1st District.

• The CQ newsroom is starting to quiet down now, mostly due to the departure of a group of hard-working American University students who have been scouring the Internet for the latest returns. We couldn't have done this without them, and we thank them for their contributions.

1:59 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• In Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent has conceded to Democrat Claire McCaskill. All eyes are now on Montana and (especially) Virginia.

• The race for Wyoming's at-large House seat is deadlocked right now, a telling sign of the GOP's woes this cycle.

• In Colorado's 7th District, Democrat Ed Perlmutter has captured the seat held by Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez, who lost his bid for governor.

2:39 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• We haven't paid much attention to the governors' races tonight, but now that things have slowed down a bit (and as we wait... and wait... on Montana and Virginia), we can pore over some of the results. Even though issues like Iraq have little connection to state-level races like this, Democrats performed quite well, picking up seats in Maryland, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa and Massachusetts. Republican Rep. Jim Gibbons just won in Nevada, despite the scandals that have surrounded him in recent weeks.

• Governor races still pending: Minnesota and Alaska

• Remember: The House has never changed hands on Election Day without the Senate following suit. Will it happen tonight? Again, we're looking at you, Montana and Virginia.

3:24 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• The latest Senate numbers from Virginia: With 99.67 percent of precincts reporting, Webb leads 49.56 percent to 49.24 percent, 1,169,373 to 1,161,739.

• The Democratic "Netroots" scored some significant victories tonight, including Nancy Boyda's upset win in Kansas 2 and Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire 1. Larry Kissell is hanging on in North Carolina 8 against Republican Rep. Robin Hayes, and Larry Grant still has a shot against Bill Sali in Idaho 1. It wasn't a sweep, however. For example, Scott Kleeb lost his bid in Nebraska 3. As CQ Politics editor Bob Benenson said, "Great candidate, wrong place."

3:43 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• All races for governor have been decided now that Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty has held on in Minnesota and Republican Sarah Palin defeated former Gov. Tony Knowles in Alaska for the seat held by Frank H. Murkowski, who lost in the GOP primary.

4:10 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• Republican Rep. Richard W. Pombo has lost to Democrat Jerry McNerney in California's 11th District. Pombo is the only committee chairman (he heads the Resources panel) to lose tonight.

• The AP hasn't officially called it (we trust their calls around here), but we feel pretty safe in saying Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce has survived and defeated Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio 15. She and Republican Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds were the only members of the House Republican leadership to face a serious threat tonight, and both prevailed.

4:23 AM; Nov. 08, 2006

• From CQ Politics reporter Marie Horrigan on the Montana Senate race: Tester campaign manager Bill Lombardi said he was not sure whether the results would come in tonight. "We're just waitin' for the results," he said. Tester led Burns by 4 percentage points with 65 percent of votes counted, the AP reported.

• CQ's Rachel Kapochuas just sent the following on the race in Florida 13: Republican Vern Buchanan's campaign said they're going to be doing a recount tomorrow; no winner called in this race. The St. Petersburg Times (which owns Congressional Quarterly) reports that state law requires a recount when the top two candidates are separated by one-half of 1 percent or less.

Today on the campus of The Ohio State University, Mary Jo will stand with her fellow Democrats and demand that every vote in Ohio be counted. Stand with her! Please join her to make sure that all absentee and provisional ballots are counted.

I don't quite get why a rally is necessary for that, why they wouldn't be counted otherwise.

87 percent of Jews vote Democrat


Democratic Party wins largest percentage of Jewish support since 1994. Elections expert: Jews voted for candidates good for Israel, but also focused on other issues

If anyone runs across data on the catholic vote, that would be interesting.

Catholics and evangelicals are now voting for Democrats

Only at TNR Online | Post date 11.08.06

It's finally time to retire that tiresome, inaccurate phrase "the God Gap," so beloved by pollsters and commentators after the 2004 election. Coined to reflect the fact that weekly churchgoing Americans split their votes 58 to 41 percent for George W. Bush that year, the label ignored the fact that a supermajority of Democratic voters attend church as well. [..]

Yesterday, the God Gap all but disappeared. Americans who attend religious services on a weekly basis voted 51 percent for Republican candidates and 48 percent for Democrats, a statistically meaningless difference. Nationally, Democrats made modest gains among two important groups of religious voters--the [Democrats] matched Bush's 2004 advantage with Catholics (52-47) and improved upon Kerry's 21-point deficit among evangelicals. (The exact percentage of the evangelical vote isn't known because, for some inexplicable reason, not every state's exit poll appears to have included a question to identify such voters.) [..]

When Democrats talk about reaching out to religious voters--particularly evangelicals--critics on the left often complain that such a strategy can work only with conservative, pro-life candidates like Bob Casey. [..] Yesterday's Democratic victories in Ohio and Michigan should put these skeptics at ease. In Ohio, religion was an issue from the start, in part because the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Ken Blackwell, was a favorite of the Christian Right. The state is also home to conservative activist pastors, such as Rod Parsley, who have become heavily involved with electoral politics over the last few years. In 2004, Bush won the Catholic vote there by a margin of 55 to 44 and the evangelical vote by 76 to 24.

But Ohio Republicans have had a tough few years-with corruption allegations [etc.] So it wasn't a surprise when Ted Strickland captured the governorship for Democrats last night and his colleague, Sherrod Brown, won the Senate seat. What was remarkable is that they did so largely with the help of Catholic and evangelical voters. Both Democrats are pro-choice, but they managed commanding leads among Catholic voters: Strickland had a 20-point advantage, and Brown's 54-46 margin represented an astounding 47-point swing in the Catholic vote since his opponent Mike DeWine's last Senate run in 2000. As for evangelicals, exit polls in Ohio didn't identify these voters, but a pre-election NYT/CBS poll last week showed Strickland splitting evangelical support with Blackwell 48-51.

OK, you say, but Ohio was an easier target for Democrats this year [..]. But what about Michigan, where incumbent Governor Jennifer Granholm ran as head of the state with the worst economy of any state not hit by a hurricane last year? In 2004, Kerry managed to capture 50 percent of the Catholic vote here, but he only eked out 29 percent support from evangelical voters. Last night, Granholm cemented her reelection with 56 percent of Catholic voters and 47 percent of evangelicals, a 36-point swing from 2004. [..]

These Ohio and Michigan Democrats didn't win by moving to the right and "pretending to be the conservative party," as Dick Armey complained on MSNBC last night. They did it by improving their religious outreach with the help of two young Democratic consultants. Common Good Strategies didn't magically make candidates religious. But it did help them communicate better with religious constituencies. That meant candidates and party leaders sat down with evangelicals and Catholics who had never been contacted by a Democrat before. And they tailored radio ads and mailings to the particular concerns of different religious groups (poverty, the environment). And they conducted new conversations around abortion--sometimes against the wishes of the campaign's old-school D.C. consultants--that focused not simply on protecting choice but also on reducing abortion rates through prevention measures and support for pregnant women.

Democrats who envision a future of hard-core, pro-life, anti-gay-rights candidates as their only hope can stop hyperventilating. It turns out that moderate evangelical and Catholic voters are willing to push the button for Democratic candidates. But sometimes it helps to talk to them first.

Amy Sullivan , a contributing editor at The Washington Monthly, is writing a book about religion and the left.

Sorry, last post written by me.

Young Americans voted in the largest numbers in at least 20 years in congressional elections, energized by the Iraq war and giving a boost to Democrats, pollsters said on Wednesday.

About 24 percent of Americans under the age of 30, or at least 10 million young voters, cast ballots in Tuesday's elections that saw Democrats make big gains in Congress. That was up 4 percentage points from the last mid-term elections in 2002.

"This looks like the highest in 20 years," said Mark Lopez, research director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, which compiled the data based on exit polls. "Unfortunately, we can't say if it's a record because don't have good comparable data before 1986."

Rock the Vote, a youth-and-civics group, said young voters favored Democrats by a 22-point margin, nearly three times the margin Democrats earned among other age groups and dealing a potentially decisive blow to Republicans in tight races.

blatham wrote:

Sorry, last post written by me.

Nice legs, blatham!