Sorry for the cross-post, but I'm gambling that it's interesting enough (with so much speculation going around about who is expecting what in terms of these elections' results):
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What do the experts think?
There are a number of websites that continually assess the current state of the Senate and House races. Each day or week, they update their ratings to reflect what the current state of play is.
(Note: this does not equate with predictions for what the outcome of the race will be in a week's time; it is all about how things look
right now.)
So how do these sites rate the balance of seats at the current moment? I made one of those colorful little tables (of course).. might be well useful for you all - for one because it isn't as easy as it should be to retrieve these numbers from the differently formatted ratings pages; and secondly, not unimportantly, to temper some expectations on both sides of A2K ;-).
Note:
re the Senate, not one of these eight "asssessors" dares to give a majority to either party. The race for the majority is at the moment a true toss-up. That said, 5 out of 8 give the Republicans a slight edge, while only 1 gives the Democrats an edge.
Note:
re the House, even here only one of the eight "assessors" gives the Democrats an actual majority; to all the others, the balance of power is still in the toss-up category. But here, all of them give either a slight or a clear edge to the Democrats.
You can also go and look up the sites yourself:
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Congressional Quarterly Election Forecast Map
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Rasmussen Reports - Senate balance of power
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Rothenberg Political Report
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Real Clear Politics
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The Cook Political Report
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The Fix (WaPo)
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New York Times 2006 Election Guide
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Pollster.com
The real enthusiasts can compare this table with
the one I made a month ago - and see just how much the Democrats have gained since then.