News & discussion on house and senate races

Rough Seas Ahead for GOP [Larry Kudlow]

joefromchicago wrote:

"There is no other way to look at these numbers except to say Tom Reynolds is in trouble," the Utica-based Zogby said...

You might want to familiarize yourselves with the demographics of said poll.

Oh, wait.

Zogby doesn't release that info to the general public.

realjohnboy wrote:

Some polls seem to show that the Foley scandal perhaps hasn't caused many voters to switch their votes. Instead, many social conservatives may simply stay home.

Heh. Prepare yourselves for a "November" surprise. :wink:

That $100 wager re November surprises is still available for easy-money harvesting by confident Republicans.

SierraSong wrote:

joefromchicago wrote:

"There is no other way to look at these numbers except to say Tom Reynolds is in trouble," the Utica-based Zogby said...

You might want to familiarize yourselves with the demographics of said poll.

Oh, wait.

Zogby doesn't release that info to the general public.

nimh wrote:

And yeah, like Cyclo said, funny how one never hears you worry about the demographics of a poll when its favourable to the Republicans.

Yeah? One day last week, Reuters reported a Zogby poll showing Lieberman up by 20 points. Pfffffffft. It's Zogby.

It's not like we haven't been down this road before - just ask President Dean ... er, President Kerry ... well, ....

It's not like we haven't been down this road before - just ask President Dean ... er, President Kerry ... well, ....

blatham wrote:

That $100 wager re November surprises is still available for easy-money harvesting by confident Republicans.

Which $100 wager? Just curious -- I'm neither a Republican nor confident.

Some weeks ago, Blatham offered to bet Sierra $100 that the Democrats would take the House when Sierra said it wouldn't happen.

Generic Ballot: Dem Lead Widens Post Foley

Political Arithmetik



The post-Foley Folly polls find an upturn in the Democratic margin in the generic Congressional ballot. Prior to the Foley developments, Democrats held a 10.6 point lead in the polls. (This is the Dem percent minus the Rep percent.) That lead has now jumped to 12.8 points, the highest my trend estimate has reached in the 244 generic ballot polls taken this election cycle. This is all the more important because prior to the Foley Fiasco the trend had moved a bit down, then flattened (though still at or about 10.6, a very strong margin even then.) Whatever possible gains Republicans were beginning to make have now been wiped out.

One important concern is that CNN and Gallup produce extraordinarily high values on the generic ballot in this poll. [..] These values of over 20 points are simply implausible given the rest of the data over the past two years, and the other data from the past two weeks. Could it be that my trend estimate is being unduly influenced by these two absurd results?

No. If I exclude the latest CNN/ORC and Gallup/USAToday polls, the trend estimate is a Democratic advantage of +12.4 points, rather than the 12.8 points if these two are included. That small change in trend would still be the highest Democratic margin of the past two years, and when plotted the line without these polls is visually all but indistinguishable from the blue trend line in the figure. [..]

Voter excitement level highest in years

Politics is a water-cooler topic, a dinner-table subject, an issue to discuss after Sunday services, and this year the interest of American voters is at its highest level in more than a decade.

That renewed attention could translate into higher voter turnout on Nov. 7, according to an Associated Press-Pew poll.

Seventy percent say they are talking politics with family and friends, and 43 percent are debating the issues at work. Among churchgoers, 28 percent share their political views, a number that rises to 34 percent among the congregations in the South. [..]

The embrace of the democratic process comes despite the view of some that it is flawed, with significant percentages saying their votes don't count. Only 45 percent of Democrats are very confident their votes will be counted, and only 30 percent of blacks are confident. Almost six in 10 of all voters polled had a lot of confidence their votes will be counted, according to the AP-Pew survey. [..]

The level of interest outpaces 1994 when Republicans swept Democrats from power in Congress. It's a far cry from the weeks after the disputed 2000 presidential election when discussion of politics was verboten at many family gatherings, especially those with carving knives nearby.

The high levels of political interest are driven largely by Democratic anger and optimism that they can win in November. Republican interest is close to its usual levels though GOP, though they are less enthused than in 2002, the poll found. [..]

In the past, high levels of voter interest haven't always translated into votes, especially in midterm elections. [..] The poll found that about nine of 10 registered voters say they almost always vote, higher than the numbers that turn out, especially in midterm elections.

GOP Split in Ariz. 8 Provides Huge Opening for Giffords

Oct. 06, 2006

Conservative activist Randy Graf, the Republican nominee in Arizona's open 8th Congressional District, has drawn the open opposition of the retiring 11-term Republican incumbent, popular moderate Jim Kolbe. National Republican strategists have pulled their money out of the race, cancelling a big independent expenditure campaign they had planned for the general election. And the Democrats, after years of ceding the competitive district to Kolbe, have an able nominee in former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords.

With this seat in southeast Arizona now appearing one of the Democrats' surer pickups in their bid to take control of the House, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favorite.

Barring a huge rally by Graf in the campaign's final four weeks, the general election shapes up as a coda to the deeply divisive campaign for the Sept. 12 Republican primary. [..] There [was] no rallying around the primary victor. "I congratulate Mr. Graf on his victory in the Republican primary," Kolbe said in a statement Sept. 13. "However, there are such profound and fundamental differences between his views and mine on several key issues that I would not be true to my own principles were I to endorse him now for the general election in November," he added.

[Gregg's] campaign [..] has support from the Minuteman PAC, a group that advocates tougher immigration law enforcement, which this week reported a $74,000 ad purchase on Graf's behalf. Graf's stance on illegal immigration jibes with that of the organization, which is known for patrolling the border with Mexico to discourage illegal immigrants.

Gregg described the 8th District race as the most important contest for the organization in the 2006 election cycle. [..]

Foley Scandal May Ensure Ohio 13 Stays in Democrats' Handschanged its rating on the race to Democrat Favored from Leans Democratic.

In many competitive districts across the country, the roiling scandal over resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foleycorruption and special interest influence the focus of her campaign long before the Foley eruption. She uses her Web site to highlight Republican scandals and even alleged corruption in the city of Lorain, the Cleveland suburbs where her opponent is the mayor.

Lorain's head of the city's law enforcement, Craig Miller, recently resigned after being convicted of deceiving police investigating misconduct by a city leader. He faces up to a year in prison when sentenced this fall.

Foltin has tried to brush aside Sutton's ethics theme and instead has focused his campaign on the economy of the district. [..]

On top of other advantages, Sutton is likely to benefit from Brown's position near the top of the Democratic ticket in his strong bid to unseat Republican Sen. Mike DeWine. [Brown] is expected to dominate on his 13th District turf, where he was re-elected with 67 percent of the vote in 2004.

That same year, district residents gave Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry 56 percent in his race against President Bush. [..]

Tough Times for GOP Mean a Close Race to Succeed Harrispersonal business practices, the times are anything but normal. Accordingly, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Leans Republican from Republican Favored.

With Buchanan already dealing with a vigorous campaign effort by Jennings, a pair of additional elements have cropped up that could further hinder him.

One is something that Buchanan had nothing personally to do with and could do nothing about: the sex scandal that on Sept. 29 forced the abrupt resignation of six-term Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley, whose 16th District shares an extensive border with the 13th. [..]

The other new problem Buchanan faces, though, is one that he instigated: Because of a provision of the federal campaign finance law known as the "millionaire's amendment," Buchanan's lavishly self-funded campaign may allow Democrat Jennings to boost her own treasury.

Under the provision, the opponent of any congressional candidate who exceeds a limit on contributions to his or her own campaign [..] is allowed to greatly exceed the usual statutory limits on contributions from individuals. [..] Jennings' campaign said that because of this, individual donors may now contribute a maximum of $6,300 to the Democrat instead of the $2,100 limit [..].

As often happens in the wake of sharply divisive primaries, much of the ammunition for Jennings was first provided by some of Buchanan's opponents in the five-candidate Republican primary, which he won with 32 percent of the vote and an 8 percentage-point lead over his nearest opponent.

These include questions about a business deal between Buchanan and the Sarasota Ritz-Carlton that went awry, leading to dueling lawsuits that eventually were settled out of court; accusations that Buchanan resigned from the American Speedy Printing Co., which he co-founded, just before it went bankrupt; and allegations that he avoided paying some taxes. [..]

Buchanan's campaign is currently running a television ad that addresses this [..]. "Now politician Jennings has launched vicious personal attacks on Vern Buchanan to avoid talking about her support for higher taxes," says a voiceover in the 30-second spot, after a soundbite in which Jennings is heard praising Buchanan back in November 2003. [..]

Buchanan continues to hold partisan advantages in a district that supported President Bush with 56 percent of the vote in 2004. Also working in Buchanan's favor is the 13 percentage-point GOP advantage in voter registration as of Aug. 7, according to figures released by the state division of elections. [..]

Buchanan also received a boost from Vice President Dick Cheney, who attended a luncheon for Buchanan in Sarasota on Friday which brought in $318,000, according to Tibbets.

Foley Scandal Drags Reynolds Into Underdog Role in N.Y. 26change its rating on the race to Leans Democratic from Leans Republican.

That switch comes just one week after CQPolitics.com downgraded Reynolds to Leans Republican from Safe RepublicanFoley scandal

Carney's Bid Turns Sherwood from Unopposed to Apologeticchanged its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. [..]

Sherwood's problems are mainly personal and self-inflicted. Last year, he acknowledged an extramarital affair with a young woman, though he denied her allegations that he also physically abused herthe president," Carney said in an interview [..].

Carney accused Sherwood of failing to ask the Bush administration the "tough questions" on Iraqtaxes and his opposition to abortion and gun control measures. He portrayed himself as a more steadfast opponent of abortion than Carney, who referred to himself in the debate as a "Roman Catholic father of five" who personally opposes abortion but also supports "a woman's right to complete access to reproductive care."

Sherwood voted in July for a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage [..]. Carney [..] declined to take a position on the amendment, saying that it was a "hypothetical."

The two candidates also disagreed on the Central American Free Trade Agreement

Kelly's Connections to Foley Scandal Put Her Seat at Risk

Oct. 10, 2006

Six-term Republican Rep. Sue W. Kelly [..] took 67 percent of the vote [in the 19th District in New York's Hudson Valley] two years ago and has exceeded 60 percent in every election since 1998.

But the difficulties faced this year by the national Republican Party; the emergence of a strong and attention-grabbing Democratic challenger in John Hall, [..] a former rock star; and now the acrid scandal involving resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley [..] have made this year's race far more treacherous for the incumbent.

To reflect that, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Leans Republican from Republican Favored.

[..] potentially damaging politically, is the question of whether Kelly herself knew about Foley's lewd behavior during her tenure as Republican chairwoman of the House Page Board from 1998 to 2001. [..] Meanwhile, Hall has done his best to tie Kelly to the president and to Republican-allied interest groups.

One ad from Hall's campaign accuses Kelly of taking $65,000 in contributions from oil companies before voting to give them billions in tax breaks, cutting taxes for the "super rich" while cutting money for education, veterans and homeland security and running up record budget deficits.

Another spot shows her voting for the 2002 resolution that authorized Bush to wage war in Iraq and for legislation that Hall claims cut veterans' benefits, while Bush is seen challenging Iraqi insurgents early in the war to "bring it on." [..]

Kelly has held the discernable lead in fundraising, though. As of Aug. 23, Kelly had raised $1.7 million and had $1.3 million left in her campaign coffers, while Hall had raised $619,000 and had $246,000 on hand.

Failure Results in Fortune for Democrat Wilson in Ohio 6 Racechanging its rating on the Ohio 6 race to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favoritecorruption job creation as the Democrat's top campaign issue. Wilson supporters began running a television ad Tuesday in which Wilson appears walking along railroad tracks.

"These tracks used to take products from eastern Ohio to all over the country," Wilson says in the ad. "But now instead of a symbol of our strong economy, these tracks lead to half-empty factories." Wilson goes on to vow that he would oppose trade agreements that threaten American jobs and would support increasing the minimum wage. [..]

Both candidates were on roughly equal footing on campaign fundraising back on June 30, the last date for which figures currently are available. Wilson had roughly $290,000 in cash on hand as of that date, just slightly more than Blasdel, who had about $277,000 [..].

Schmidt Not Safe Despite Reliably Republican District

Oct. 10, 2006

The political demographics of Ohio's 2nd District would seem to suggest that freshman Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt [..] shouldn't have to break much of a sweat to win in November. After all, the 2nd includes some of the most heavily Republican precincts in Ohio, and President Bush won nearly two-thirds of the vote there.

But Schmidt's sometimes caustic personality has hindered her efforts to gain a political foothold since she won a August 2005 special election to replace longtime Republican Rep. Rob Portman [..]. With longshot Democratic nominee Victoria Wulsin putting up a credible challenge, CQPolitics.com has decided to change the rating of the Ohio 2 race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican. [..]

Portman had dominated elections since he was elected in 1993. Yet Schmidt, then head of the Cincinnati region affiliate of the anti-abortion Right to Life organization and a former state lawmaker, struggled to defeat Democratic lawyer Paul Hackett, an Iraq war veteran turned sharp critic of the conflict, holding him off with just 52 percent of the vote.

She gained attention, but also raised many hackles, not long after she was sworn in. Last November, during debate over the war in Iraq, Schmidt made statements that appeared to question the courage of Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John P. Murtha, a vigorous opponent of Bush's handling of the Iraq conflict who is a Marine Corps veteran of the Vietnam War. [..]

Schmidt was renominated in the May primary with just 48 percent of the vote in a four-candidate race.

Among the factors contributing to CQ's ratings change is the National Republican Congressional Committee's independent expenditure of $22,000 on Oct. 9 on mail pieces that criticize Wulsin.

One mail piece attacks Wulsin on immigration issues. A second NRCC piece raises the specter of a Democratic-controlled House in which the Speaker presumably would be Nancy Pelosi of California [..].

The NRCC's payment is a meager outlay, but the party's national House campaign unit surely would not have expended those funds if it believed Schmidt was politically safe. [..]

The DCCC recently named Ohio 2 to a list of "emerging races," but stopped short of naming Wulsin to a more exclusive subset of Democratic candidates who would receive significant resources and fundraising help from the party.

Garrett's Foe in N.J. 5 Is Credible, But Still the Underdog

Democratic House nominee Paul Aronsohn must make significant gains over the final four weeks of the campaign in order to seriously threaten Republican Rep. Scott Garrett's two-term hold on the seat in New Jersey's 5th District.

But Aronsohn, like many longshot Democratic candidates across the nation, has gained at least a glimmer of hope for an upset because of the continuing and building problems that have forced the Republican Party on the defensive, even in some of their usually safe districts. CQ has moved its rating of this race to Republican Favored from its Safe Republican category to reflect these changes. [..]

Some Republican incumbents facing serious races have scrambled to distance themselves from [Speaker J. Dennis] Hastertembryonic stem cell research, abortion rights and the teaching of intelligent design as an alternative to the theory of evolution in public schools.

Aronsohn said that Garrett "flies under the radar" on many of these issues. He claims that during the course of his "Walk the Walk" door-knocking campaign, he's found "the more people know about Scott Garrett, the less people like him." [..]

But the 5th District's history of Republican voting was underscored in 2004, [when] Bush was favored by 57 percent of 5th District voters. They also re-elected Garrett with 58 percent of the vote.

Tenn. Senate candidates trade barbs

Tue Oct 10

Tennessee's U.S. Senate candidates traded caricatures during a debate Tuesday night that painted a grim choice for voters: rubber stamp or political insider.

"If you want a rubber stamp, don't vote for me," said Democrat Harold Ford Jr., suggesting his opponent would lock step with the Bush administration.

Counterpunching, Republican Bob Corker accused the Memphis congressman of being a Washington insider who benefited from the "machine-style" politics of his politically connected family. [..]

Corker, a former Chattanooga mayor, questioned the work of Ford's father, former U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Sr., as a lobbyist for Fannie Mae while Ford Jr. sat on the House committee overseeing its activities.

Ford said no one in his family has ever lobbied him on congressional issues and he would refuse them if they did. [..]

Ford attacked his opponent's support for the Bush administration's "stay the course" policy in Iraq.

"If you want to stay the course, I'm not your guy," Ford said. "If you believe America is better than what they've given us this past six years, then I ask for your vote."

Ford said reducing dependence on foreign oil would help keep the country from getting caught up in foreign conflicts and said his opponent was an advocate for "big oil."

Corker said "new strategies" are needed in the war but he disagreed with Ford's suggestion to divide Iraq by ethnic and religious lines.

"That's something European countries did after World War II," Corker said.

Ford blamed the Republicans for not doing anything to rein in federal spending during their 12 years of power in Congress. He also said he supported going to a two-year budget cycle. [..]

I've lived a Tennessee life, my opponent has lived a Washington life," Corker said. "Our world views couldn't be any more different."

Patriot Act a dominant issue in debate

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

The Patriot Act and its role in fighting terrorism - or squashing civil rights, depending on your point of view - dominated a U.S. Senate debate here Monday night, as all three candidates clashed over the law.

U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., defended its expansion of government investigators' powers, saying it has helped fight terrorism and other illegal activity.

"You have not given up one freedom under the Patriot Act that you didn't have before, unless you're a terrorist or suspected terrorist - or unless you are affiliated with the Mafia, or with drug kingpins," Burns told an audience of 1,200 people at the Strand Union Ballroom on the Montana State University campus.

That remark brought a sharp rejoinder from Libertarian Stan Jones of Bozeman, who said the act allows certain suspects to be locked up forever without an attorney or civil trial.

"I'm sorry, (senator), you're telling me that I'm guilty of being a terrorist first," Jones said to Burns. "You've turned our legal system upside down. I have to prove my innocence. We have to turn this thing off."

Democrat Jon Tester, who has said the act should be repealed, also reiterated his criticisms that it needlessly takes away individual freedoms while the war on terror is being bungled by the Bush administration. [..]

Yet the rest of the debate - the fourth in this closely watched contest - offered little else in the way of oral fireworks or anything new, as the candidates mostly repeated well-worn campaign themes.

Burns, a Republican seeking his fourth consecutive term, touted the federal money he has brought to Montana State University and talked up President Bush's tax cuts, saying they have been the primer for a growing economy.

Tester, a Big Sandy farmer and Montana state Senate president, who had a 7-percentage-point lead in the latest independent poll, said the country needs new leadership and a change of direction. Voters should throw out a corrupt Congress dominated by corporate interests and their lobbyists, he said.

"We'd better prioritize better and start looking out for middle-class folks," he said. "But that's not the folks who have control back in D.C. right now."

Jones, appearing for the first time in a debate with Burns and Tester, said the federal government needs to abolish most of its departments and cease "unconstitutional" activities. He also said the world is moving toward a "one-world Communist government," controlled by international trade agreements.

On college tuition, Tester said higher education "is almost unattainable" for some because of its cost, and slammed Burns for voting for a bill this year that cut a federal tax credit for tuition costs.

The government needs to increase grants and low-interest loans for college students, rather than scale back on these programs, he said.

Burns replied later that college tuition in Montana has gone up 48 percent while Tester has been in the state Senate - but didn't mention that Republicans controlled the governorship and the Legislature for the first six of Tester's eight years in the state Senate.

Allen, Webb spar in final TV debate

Tue Oct 10

Republican Sen. George Allen and his Democratic challenger Jim Webb sparred with both each other and their pasts during the final televised debate in Virginia's tight, closely watched U.S. Senate race.

The face-off Monday shed little new light on the positions of either candidate in a race that could help determine whether the GOP retains control of the Senate. Both sides generally evoked boilerplate answers, often lifted directly from campaign literature.

<snip>

Throughout the debate, Webb looked tense, his eyes riveted on his off-camera questioners or on Allen. His answers were detailed, sometimes to the point of wonkishness; his delivery sometimes halting.

Allen, a veteran of numerous TV debates in his long political career, appeared relaxed, his eyes connecting comfortably with the camera, even as he offered up refrains he has used for years and made a practice of opening his response with attacks on Webb.

At least three times, Allen took pains to link Webb, a former Republican, with Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry [..].

The debate spun out of control during a segment in which candidates were allowed to ask each other questions. Allen and Webb became argumentative, talking over one another and making it virtually impossible to understand what either was saying.

The most heated exchange centered on taxes. Allen said he has supported tax cuts that Webb has criticized. Webb said tax cuts during a time of increased federal spending and a growing deficit are unwise.

"You can't keep spending like this without increasing revenues," Webb said.

Allen asked Webb if he knew "how many Virginians have benefited from the tax relief you criticize." For nearly a minute, the candidates talked at the same time before the debate's moderator finally intervened and Allen ended the exchange by saying: "The answer is 3 million Virginians."

[Connecticut] 4th District candidates debate Iraq war

Although the official topic of Sunday night's debate of 4th District congressional candidates was plural, international affairs, it might as well have been singular, because one subject, the Iraq war, dominated the give and take.

<snip>

Toward the end of the debate the participants tackled the topic of Darfur in Africa was raised. [sic]

Shays said that European nations must do more there and U.S. planes should "shoot down at Sudanese planes that are bombing civilians."

Farrell said that China's help should be enlisted in east Africa because "they have a lot of good experience there."

Farrell charged that Shays and the Republican Congress have done nothing to challenge the administration's failure to end the country's dependence on Mideast oil, and its profligate borrowing to pay the escalating costs of the Iraq war. That borrowing, she said, has resulted in a "stranglehold on the U.S. by the lending nations."

Michael Cobb on NCSU Iraq Survey

Dr. Cobb is an assistant professor of political science at North Carolina State University who specializes in survey research and polling methods.

In a recent poll that Dr. William Boettcher and I conducted with the Institute for Southern Studies, we asked some unique questions about Iraq and we received some unexpected answers. The poll was administered by Knowledge Networks, Inc., included 1,342 respondents, and was conducted from Sept. 19-26. [..]

Bill and I are interested in the perceived goals and probability of success in Iraq, but when we looked around we could not find many surveys asking people what they thought was the primary US goal. Questions about goals were mostly limited to asking whether Iraq was part of the war on terrorism, and a few asked about whether Iraq was already experiencing a civil war.

So, in one question on our survey, we asked respondents what they thought was the primary US goal in Iraq. We asked respondents to choose one goal among four possible alternative mission objectives, but we also permitted respondents to answer "something else" and to subsequently type in their response [..]. The question is as follows:

The following are commonly cited as US goals in Iraq. Which one do you think is the primary reason the US is in Iraq today? Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism We are promoting Democracy in Iraq and in the Middle East We are preventing Iraq from sliding into a civil war We want to ensure access to oil Something else_____________

What caught our attention was the answer distribution that resulted in a plurality of respondents identifying "access to oil" as the main reason we are currently in Iraq. After we re-coded a majority of the "something else" responses into one new "objective" or back into one of the original four goals, the breakdown was as follows (before we coded the something else responses, 15% had said something else and oil was just 30%):

Oil = 34% Terrorism = 26% Democracy = 25% Preventing Civil War = 7% General cynicism about/towards Bush = 7%

To be perfectly honest, we had a hard time determining a non-administration preferred mission frame, and belatedly added "oil" as our fourth alternative. We certainly did not expect oil to be the plurality response. Not only is the goal of access to oil rarely mentioned in the mainstream media coverage about Iraq, but also when oil is mentioned as a goal, it is often framed as a crackpot conspiracy.

So my question is this: why are people picking oil as the goal?

Read on..

And the key indicator here is that it's the Democrats who are particularly enthused about voting now - while motivation among Republicans is the same as in other midterm elections, and less than in 2002.

"engage in rampant negativism"..."they are all miscreants"