News & discussion on house and senate races

Rough Seas Ahead for GOP [Larry Kudlow]
The first batch of major polls released following the Foley scandal and Speaker Hastert's mismanagement of this mess has hit the street. They are devastating to the Republican outlook for the congressional elections on November 7?-devastating.

Though the Foley scandal is not the biggest issue in the race, at the margin, it is having a very negative impact; one might even call it a tipping point. Metaphorically, it highlights ongoing GOP problems of corruption, ineptness, mismanagement and poor judgment.

Undoubtedly, these new numbers capture a loss of Republican support among security moms and a loss of energy among conservative values voters. According to the Gallup poll, it has put the issue of government corruption right at the top of the list with Iraq and terrorism?-exactly where the GOP doesn't want it.

48 percent of likely voters rate corruption, Iraq, and terrorism as the big three issues. The GOP is losing by 20 points on corruption, 17 on Iraq and, get this, 5 points on terrorism. (That last one is tough to take, but there you have it.)

Among likely voters, Gallup shows a 23-point lead for the generic House vote, 59-36 for the Dems. Only a month ago, it was a 48-48 tie. In addition, by a 43 to 36 percent margin, respondents say Speaker Hastert should resign.

(Noteworthy: In his press conference today, Denny Hastert actually used the word "cover-up" for the first time. The Speaker said that if the Foley investigations reveal any evidence of a cover-up, staff heads would roll. A little late Mr. Hastert?)

A CBS poll also shows a 46-26 margin of respondents believing Hastert should resign, while the Congressional vote came in 49 to 35, Dems over Republicans.

Despite all this relentlessly negative polling news for the GOP, the stock market continues gaining ground. Gold is down, the dollar is up and the market message?-despite a likely GOP pasting this fall?-is for continued prosperity in 2007. It's still the greatest story never told.

Perhaps the GOP will get an election comeuppance; and maybe that's not such a bad thing after all.

In the long run the United States is going to be just fine.
Posted at 6:33 PM

joefromchicago wrote:

"There is no other way to look at these numbers except to say Tom Reynolds is in trouble," the Utica-based Zogby said...

You might want to familiarize yourselves with the demographics of said poll.

Oh, wait.

Zogby doesn't release that info to the general public.

realjohnboy wrote:

Some polls seem to show that the Foley scandal perhaps hasn't caused many voters to switch their votes. Instead, many social conservatives may simply stay home.

Heh. Prepare yourselves for a "November" surprise. :wink:

That $100 wager re November surprises is still available for easy-money harvesting by confident Republicans.

SierraSong wrote:

joefromchicago wrote:

"There is no other way to look at these numbers except to say Tom Reynolds is in trouble," the Utica-based Zogby said...

You might want to familiarize yourselves with the demographics of said poll.

Oh, wait.

Zogby doesn't release that info to the general public.

nimh wrote:

And yeah, like Cyclo said, funny how one never hears you worry about the demographics of a poll when its favourable to the Republicans.

Yeah? One day last week, Reuters reported a Zogby poll showing Lieberman up by 20 points. Pfffffffft. It's Zogby.

It's not like we haven't been down this road before - just ask President Dean ... er, President Kerry ... well, ....

It's not like we haven't been down this road before - just ask President Dean ... er, President Kerry ... well, ....

blatham wrote:

That $100 wager re November surprises is still available for easy-money harvesting by confident Republicans.

Which $100 wager? Just curious -- I'm neither a Republican nor confident.

Some weeks ago, Blatham offered to bet Sierra $100 that the Democrats would take the House when Sierra said it wouldn't happen.

Generic Ballot: Dem Lead Widens Post Foley

Political Arithmetik



The post-Foley Folly polls find an upturn in the Democratic margin in the generic Congressional ballot. Prior to the Foley developments, Democrats held a 10.6 point lead in the polls. (This is the Dem percent minus the Rep percent.) That lead has now jumped to 12.8 points, the highest my trend estimate has reached in the 244 generic ballot polls taken this election cycle. This is all the more important because prior to the Foley Fiasco the trend had moved a bit down, then flattened (though still at or about 10.6, a very strong margin even then.) Whatever possible gains Republicans were beginning to make have now been wiped out.

One important concern is that CNN and Gallup produce extraordinarily high values on the generic ballot in this poll. [..] These values of over 20 points are simply implausible given the rest of the data over the past two years, and the other data from the past two weeks. Could it be that my trend estimate is being unduly influenced by these two absurd results?

No. If I exclude the latest CNN/ORC and Gallup/USAToday polls, the trend estimate is a Democratic advantage of +12.4 points, rather than the 12.8 points if these two are included. That small change in trend would still be the highest Democratic margin of the past two years, and when plotted the line without these polls is visually all but indistinguishable from the blue trend line in the figure. [..]

Voter excitement level highest in years

Politics is a water-cooler topic, a dinner-table subject, an issue to discuss after Sunday services, and this year the interest of American voters is at its highest level in more than a decade.

That renewed attention could translate into higher voter turnout on Nov. 7, according to an Associated Press-Pew poll.

Seventy percent say they are talking politics with family and friends, and 43 percent are debating the issues at work. Among churchgoers, 28 percent share their political views, a number that rises to 34 percent among the congregations in the South. [..]

The embrace of the democratic process comes despite the view of some that it is flawed, with significant percentages saying their votes don't count. Only 45 percent of Democrats are very confident their votes will be counted, and only 30 percent of blacks are confident. Almost six in 10 of all voters polled had a lot of confidence their votes will be counted, according to the AP-Pew survey. [..]

The level of interest outpaces 1994 when Republicans swept Democrats from power in Congress. It's a far cry from the weeks after the disputed 2000 presidential election when discussion of politics was verboten at many family gatherings, especially those with carving knives nearby.

The high levels of political interest are driven largely by Democratic anger and optimism that they can win in November. Republican interest is close to its usual levels though GOP, though they are less enthused than in 2002, the poll found. [..]

In the past, high levels of voter interest haven't always translated into votes, especially in midterm elections. [..] The poll found that about nine of 10 registered voters say they almost always vote, higher than the numbers that turn out, especially in midterm elections.

October 12, 2006
REDISTRICTING: FACT AND FICTION....Is gerrymandering responsible for the fact that it's virtually impossible nowadays to defeat an incumbent in the House of Representatives? Reporters and pundits seem to accept this without question, but academic research suggests otherwise. For example, Alan Abramowitz, an Emory political science professor who's studied the decline in competitive seats, recently published a paper concluding that redistricting has had "little to do with the recent decline in competition in House elections. Other developments, such as the growing financial advantage of incumbents and increasing partisanship in the electorate, appear to be more responsible." He figures that only 12% of the decline in marginal districts has been a result of redistricting.

Still, 12% is 12%, and when the House is split as evenly as it is now that can make the difference between being in the majority and being in the minority ?- something that Republicans seem to understand better than Democrats. In "The Race to Gerrymander," in our November issue, Rachel Morris provides a fascinating 20-year history of Republican efforts to gain control of state legislatures in 1990 and again in 2000 so that they'd be the ones in control of redistricting:

Republicans prepared earlier and poured money into the 2000 legislative elections in critical states like Pennsylvania. Some Democrats, particularly [Martin] Frost, advocated a similarly ambitious approach, but the 1994 wipeout had thrown the party into something of a tailspin, and for the next few years presidential contests consumed much of its energy and money. Eventually Democrats did devote considerable attention to state elections and preparing for the census, but they had already lost valuable time.

After 2000, Democrats found themselves entirely locked out of redistricting in four large swing states where Republicans had won all three branches of government: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. "In those states we got hammered," one Democratic redistricting operative said.

It may be that Republican gerrymandering has produced a net gain of no more than 20 seats for the GOP over the past couple of decades. Still, that's enough, and it's one of the reasons I think Howard Dean's focus on rebuilding state party infrastructure is so pivotal. When 2010 rolls around Democrats need to be in a position to compete in every state, either to gain control of the redistricting process outright or to at least win enough control to prevent Republicans from dominating the process the way they have for the past two cycles. 2004 was none too soon to start working on that.

GOP Split in Ariz. 8 Provides Huge Opening for Giffords

Oct. 06, 2006

Conservative activist Randy Graf, the Republican nominee in Arizona's open 8th Congressional District, has drawn the open opposition of the retiring 11-term Republican incumbent, popular moderate Jim Kolbe. National Republican strategists have pulled their money out of the race, cancelling a big independent expenditure campaign they had planned for the general election. And the Democrats, after years of ceding the competitive district to Kolbe, have an able nominee in former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords.

With this seat in southeast Arizona now appearing one of the Democrats' surer pickups in their bid to take control of the House, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favorite.

Barring a huge rally by Graf in the campaign's final four weeks, the general election shapes up as a coda to the deeply divisive campaign for the Sept. 12 Republican primary. [..] There [was] no rallying around the primary victor. "I congratulate Mr. Graf on his victory in the Republican primary," Kolbe said in a statement Sept. 13. "However, there are such profound and fundamental differences between his views and mine on several key issues that I would not be true to my own principles were I to endorse him now for the general election in November," he added.

[Gregg's] campaign [..] has support from the Minuteman PAC, a group that advocates tougher immigration law enforcement, which this week reported a $74,000 ad purchase on Graf's behalf. Graf's stance on illegal immigration jibes with that of the organization, which is known for patrolling the border with Mexico to discourage illegal immigrants.

Gregg described the 8th District race as the most important contest for the organization in the 2006 election cycle. [..]

Foley Scandal May Ensure Ohio 13 Stays in Democrats' Hands

Oct. 09, 2006

Despite the Republicans' nomination of Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin ?- who has a record of winning on Democratic turf ?- it has been an uphill climb for the GOP in the race for the 13th District seat that Ohio Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown left open to run for the Senate.

The district, which links suburbs of Cleveland to part of Akron and that city's suburbs, has a pronounced if not lopsided Democratic lean. The Democrats nominated a solid candidate of their own in former state Rep. Betty Sutton.

And Republicans' hopes for a late campaign surge by Foltin have been hobbled by the darkening of an already cloudy national political environment for the Republican Party. As a result, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Democrat Favored from Leans Democratic.

In many competitive districts across the country, the roiling scandal over resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley's lewd communications with former congressional pages ?- and the controversy over the House GOP leadership's handling of the matter ?- has stanched the momentum that Republican candidates hoped to build in the final weeks before Nov. 7.

But the word "scandal" in the headlines is about the last thing an underdog Republican candidate in Ohio, even one without the remotest association with the Foley incident, needs to see. That is because, more than in any other state, the Republican Party in Ohio has been besieged by a series of corruption scandals. [..]

David B. Cohen, associate professor of political science at the the University of Akron, said the scandals have helped Sutton build a lead in the 13th District race, and that the Foley affair appears the final straw. [..]

Sutton made her past efforts, as a state lawmaker, to fight corruption and special interest influence the focus of her campaign long before the Foley eruption. She uses her Web site to highlight Republican scandals and even alleged corruption in the city of Lorain, the Cleveland suburbs where her opponent is the mayor.

Lorain's head of the city's law enforcement, Craig Miller, recently resigned after being convicted of deceiving police investigating misconduct by a city leader. He faces up to a year in prison when sentenced this fall.

Foltin has tried to brush aside Sutton's ethics theme and instead has focused his campaign on the economy of the district. [..]

On top of other advantages, Sutton is likely to benefit from Brown's position near the top of the Democratic ticket in his strong bid to unseat Republican Sen. Mike DeWine. [Brown] is expected to dominate on his 13th District turf, where he was re-elected with 67 percent of the vote in 2004.

That same year, district residents gave Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry 56 percent in his race against President Bush. [..]

Tough Times for GOP Mean a Close Race to Succeed Harris

Oct. 09, 2006

In more normal times, Republican Vern Buchanan would likely have a daunting advantage as he bids to succeed two-term Republican Rep. Katherine Harris in Florida's 13th District.

Buchanan benefits from the Republican leanings of the Gulf Coast district, which Harris left open to run for the Senate. And Buchanan ?- a wealthy car dealer and longtime GOP fundraiser ?- has a big edge in campaign money over the Democratic nominee, former banker Christine Jennings.

But with the GOP facing a bad and worsening national political environment, and Buchanan still bruised from attacks by Republican primary opponents about his personal business practices, the times are anything but normal. Accordingly, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Leans Republican from Republican Favored.

With Buchanan already dealing with a vigorous campaign effort by Jennings, a pair of additional elements have cropped up that could further hinder him.

One is something that Buchanan had nothing personally to do with and could do nothing about: the sex scandal that on Sept. 29 forced the abrupt resignation of six-term Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley, whose 16th District shares an extensive border with the 13th. [..]

The other new problem Buchanan faces, though, is one that he instigated: Because of a provision of the federal campaign finance law known as the "millionaire's amendment," Buchanan's lavishly self-funded campaign may allow Democrat Jennings to boost her own treasury.

Under the provision, the opponent of any congressional candidate who exceeds a limit on contributions to his or her own campaign [..] is allowed to greatly exceed the usual statutory limits on contributions from individuals. [..] Jennings' campaign said that because of this, individual donors may now contribute a maximum of $6,300 to the Democrat instead of the $2,100 limit [..].

As often happens in the wake of sharply divisive primaries, much of the ammunition for Jennings was first provided by some of Buchanan's opponents in the five-candidate Republican primary, which he won with 32 percent of the vote and an 8 percentage-point lead over his nearest opponent.

These include questions about a business deal between Buchanan and the Sarasota Ritz-Carlton that went awry, leading to dueling lawsuits that eventually were settled out of court; accusations that Buchanan resigned from the American Speedy Printing Co., which he co-founded, just before it went bankrupt; and allegations that he avoided paying some taxes. [..]

Buchanan's campaign is currently running a television ad that addresses this [..]. "Now politician Jennings has launched vicious personal attacks on Vern Buchanan to avoid talking about her support for higher taxes," says a voiceover in the 30-second spot, after a soundbite in which Jennings is heard praising Buchanan back in November 2003. [..]

Buchanan continues to hold partisan advantages in a district that supported President Bush with 56 percent of the vote in 2004. Also working in Buchanan's favor is the 13 percentage-point GOP advantage in voter registration as of Aug. 7, according to figures released by the state division of elections. [..]

Buchanan also received a boost from Vice President Dick Cheney, who attended a luncheon for Buchanan in Sarasota on Friday which brought in $318,000, according to Tibbets.

Foley Scandal Drags Reynolds Into Underdog Role in N.Y. 26

Oct. 09, 2006

The scandal surrounding resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley and the salacious messages he sent to underage congressional pages has [..] reordered the already pitched partisan battle for control of the House.

And nowhere is that more true than in New York's 26th District, where the re-election prospects of four-term Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds ?- head of the Republicans' national House campaign organization ?- have seen a stunning reversal of fortune. The controversy over Reynolds' handling of information about Foley's activities has prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the race to Leans Democratic from Leans Republican.

That switch comes just one week after CQPolitics.com downgraded Reynolds to Leans Republican from Safe Republican ?- a position where Reynolds had comfortably resided prior to Foley's abrupt Sept. 29 resignation.

The Leans Democratic rating does not mean that Reynolds definitely will lose on Nov. 7: His past popularity, strong fundraising advantage and the Republican lean in his upstate New York district gives him at least a chance of reversing the tide running strongly against him.

But all of the momentum appears on the side of the Democratic nominee, factory owner Jack Davis, who had been running a vigorous underdog campaign even before the Foley scandal erupted. [..]

Reynolds' role in the Foley incident began in spring 2006, when Louisiana Republican Rep. Rodney Alexander told him a former page [..] had complained of receiving inappropriate e-mails and instant messages from Foley.

Reynolds ?- who has defended himself by saying that the e-mails in question were not the sexually explicit ones to other young men that were later revealed ?- says he mentioned the matter to the office of House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert of Illinois [..]. This has led many critics to demand to know why Reynolds didn't think the matter required a more thorough investigation [..].

Carney's Bid Turns Sherwood from Unopposed to Apologetic

Oct. 09, 2006

At the outset of the 2006 midterm campaign cycle, it would have been difficult to identify a more politically "safe" member than Pennsylvania Rep. Don Sherwood. A four-term Republican from the strongly conservative 10th District in northeastern Pennsylvania, Sherwood had run unchallenged by Democrats in 2002 and 2004.

Now it is difficult to find many House members who are more politically vulnerable ?- so much so that CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. [..]

Sherwood's problems are mainly personal and self-inflicted. Last year, he acknowledged an extramarital affair with a young woman, though he denied her allegations that he also physically abused her.

Recent polling data indicate that a sizable portion of the district's usually ample Republican electorate is shunning Sherwood ?- and that Carney may be emerging as the candidate to beat. An independent survey released Oct. 3 by the polling institute at Lycoming College, which is located in the 10th District, showed Carney ahead by 47 percent to 38 percent.

The survey found that just 60 percent of self-identified Republicans are backing Sherwood, compared to 26 percent who are supporting Carney, who also has a big lead among self-identified independent voters. [..]

Carney's campaign recently aired a television ad that featured a self-described Republican and longtime former Sherwood supporter, who criticizes the incumbent for having "campaigned on family values and he didn't keep up to his promises."

As the man speaks, the screen displays the phrases "repeatedly choking" and "attempting to strangle plaintiff" ?- damning excerpts of accusations from the woman's lawsuit, which was later settled out of court.

Sherwood this week responded with a television ad in which he directly apologizes to voters for the affair, denies the allegations of physical abuse and promises to continue what he describes as his effective representation of the district if the voters were to forgive and re-elect him. [..]

Carney argues that Sherwood's vulnerability stems from more than his personal problems. "It's also how he votes on issues. It's his closeness to the president," Carney said in an interview [..].

Carney accused Sherwood of failing to ask the Bush administration the "tough questions" on Iraq, and said the administration inadequately prepared for an insurgency in that nation. [..] Carney supports a plan to swap out one American battalion for every Iraqi-trained battalion.

Sherwood, though, has warned against the consequences of immediate withdrawal. "We want to get out as soon as we can, but the time you get out is when the job is done ?- when we have a reasonably stable representative government in Iraq that will take care of its people and will not be a breeding ground for terrorism," he said.

In the debate, Sherwood emphasized his support for cutting taxes and his opposition to abortion and gun control measures. He portrayed himself as a more steadfast opponent of abortion than Carney, who referred to himself in the debate as a "Roman Catholic father of five" who personally opposes abortion but also supports "a woman's right to complete access to reproductive care."

Sherwood voted in July for a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage [..]. Carney [..] declined to take a position on the amendment, saying that it was a "hypothetical."

The two candidates also disagreed on the Central American Free Trade Agreement that was approved by Congress last year. Sherwood said he supported the pact in part because his district's dairy farmers strongly favored it; Carney said that the pact did not include adequate safeguards to keep workers' jobs from going overseas.

The race could hinge on whether Sherwood, in the final four weeks of the campaign, can prevail upon Republicans who are disgusted by his affair to stick with him on policy grounds. Carney, meanwhile, will need to parry attacks from Republicans that he is too liberal for the district. [..]

The National Republican Congressional Committee [on] Friday [..] reported spending [..] $163,132 on television ads opposing Carney ?- bringing the committee's total independent expenditures in the race to $922,000.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also has been active in the district, and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) has spent more than $300,000 on television ads that attack Sherwood. [..]

Kelly's Connections to Foley Scandal Put Her Seat at Risk

Oct. 10, 2006

Six-term Republican Rep. Sue W. Kelly [..] took 67 percent of the vote [in the 19th District in New York's Hudson Valley] two years ago and has exceeded 60 percent in every election since 1998.

But the difficulties faced this year by the national Republican Party; the emergence of a strong and attention-grabbing Democratic challenger in John Hall, [..] a former rock star; and now the acrid scandal involving resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley [..] have made this year's race far more treacherous for the incumbent.

To reflect that, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Leans Republican from Republican Favored.

[..] potentially damaging politically, is the question of whether Kelly herself knew about Foley's lewd behavior during her tenure as Republican chairwoman of the House Page Board from 1998 to 2001. [..] Meanwhile, Hall has done his best to tie Kelly to the president and to Republican-allied interest groups.

One ad from Hall's campaign accuses Kelly of taking $65,000 in contributions from oil companies before voting to give them billions in tax breaks, cutting taxes for the "super rich" while cutting money for education, veterans and homeland security and running up record budget deficits.

Another spot shows her voting for the 2002 resolution that authorized Bush to wage war in Iraq and for legislation that Hall claims cut veterans' benefits, while Bush is seen challenging Iraqi insurgents early in the war to "bring it on." [..]

Kelly has held the discernable lead in fundraising, though. As of Aug. 23, Kelly had raised $1.7 million and had $1.3 million left in her campaign coffers, while Hall had raised $619,000 and had $246,000 on hand.

Failure Results in Fortune for Democrat Wilson in Ohio 6 Race

Oct. 10, 2006

An early gaffe by the Democratic nominee in Ohio's 6th District might paradoxically end up paving the way for his victory on Nov. 7. Analysts and strategists say Democratic state Sen. Charlie Wilson's successful write-in campaign for the May 2 primary, the consequence of his embarrassing failure to qualify for the primary ballot, [..] earned [him] a dedicated support base, sky-high name recognition and a solid edge over his Republican opponent, state House Speaker pro tempore Chuck Blasdel.

Because of these factors ?- and the strong tide running against Republicans in general in the midterm elections ?- CQPolitics.com is changing its rating on the Ohio 6 race to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favorite.

Wilson's chances are further boosted by outgoing six-term 6th District incumbent Ted Strickland's presence on the ticket as the Democratic nominee for governor. Strickland's momentum in that contest has established him as the solid front-runner over the Republican nominee, Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.

Strickland is highly popular in the 6th District, and ran without Republican opposition in his 2004 race. But that did not initially ensure a Democratic open-seat victory this year in the sprawling, mostly rural southern Ohio district, which encompasses all or part of 12 counties as it abuts the Ohio River.

The district overall is a partisan battleground, where the conservative-leaning electorate favored George W. Bush for president in 2000 [and 2004] by a razor-thin margin. [..] A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee [..] told The Vindicator newspaper of Youngstown last year that the district was "the Republicans' No. 1 targeted open seat in the country."

Yet Wilson's unusual but enormously successful write-in effort in the primary, combined with a sharp drop statewide in Republican support ?- due in part to corruption scandals involving Gov. Bob Taft and Rep. Bob Ney ?- and the GOP's [..] problems at the national level now have tipped the scales in Democrats' favor [..].

A Sept. 29 Survey USA poll found that Wilson was leading Blasdel by a 13 percentage-point margin among likely voters.

Further complicating matters for Blasdel is the fact that the NRCC, despite their early intentions to target the 6th, recently has turned almost all of its financial resources to its vulnerable House incumbents, including several in Ohio.

"The 6th is on no one's radar screen as an opportunity for the Republicans," [Bill] Binning, [a political scientist at Youngstown State University]. [..]

Wilson campaign spokesman Jason Friedman [..] named job creation as the Democrat's top campaign issue. Wilson supporters began running a television ad Tuesday in which Wilson appears walking along railroad tracks.

"These tracks used to take products from eastern Ohio to all over the country," Wilson says in the ad. "But now instead of a symbol of our strong economy, these tracks lead to half-empty factories." Wilson goes on to vow that he would oppose trade agreements that threaten American jobs and would support increasing the minimum wage. [..]

Both candidates were on roughly equal footing on campaign fundraising back on June 30, the last date for which figures currently are available. Wilson had roughly $290,000 in cash on hand as of that date, just slightly more than Blasdel, who had about $277,000 [..].

Schmidt Not Safe Despite Reliably Republican District

Oct. 10, 2006

The political demographics of Ohio's 2nd District would seem to suggest that freshman Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt [..] shouldn't have to break much of a sweat to win in November. After all, the 2nd includes some of the most heavily Republican precincts in Ohio, and President Bush won nearly two-thirds of the vote there.

But Schmidt's sometimes caustic personality has hindered her efforts to gain a political foothold since she won a August 2005 special election to replace longtime Republican Rep. Rob Portman [..]. With longshot Democratic nominee Victoria Wulsin putting up a credible challenge, CQPolitics.com has decided to change the rating of the Ohio 2 race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican. [..]

Portman had dominated elections since he was elected in 1993. Yet Schmidt, then head of the Cincinnati region affiliate of the anti-abortion Right to Life organization and a former state lawmaker, struggled to defeat Democratic lawyer Paul Hackett, an Iraq war veteran turned sharp critic of the conflict, holding him off with just 52 percent of the vote.

She gained attention, but also raised many hackles, not long after she was sworn in. Last November, during debate over the war in Iraq, Schmidt made statements that appeared to question the courage of Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John P. Murtha, a vigorous opponent of Bush's handling of the Iraq conflict who is a Marine Corps veteran of the Vietnam War. [..]

Schmidt was renominated in the May primary with just 48 percent of the vote in a four-candidate race.

Among the factors contributing to CQ's ratings change is the National Republican Congressional Committee's independent expenditure of $22,000 on Oct. 9 on mail pieces that criticize Wulsin.

One mail piece attacks Wulsin on immigration issues. A second NRCC piece raises the specter of a Democratic-controlled House in which the Speaker presumably would be Nancy Pelosi of California [..].

The NRCC's payment is a meager outlay, but the party's national House campaign unit surely would not have expended those funds if it believed Schmidt was politically safe. [..]

The DCCC recently named Ohio 2 to a list of "emerging races," but stopped short of naming Wulsin to a more exclusive subset of Democratic candidates who would receive significant resources and fundraising help from the party.

Garrett's Foe in N.J. 5 Is Credible, But Still the Underdog

Democratic House nominee Paul Aronsohn must make significant gains over the final four weeks of the campaign in order to seriously threaten Republican Rep. Scott Garrett's two-term hold on the seat in New Jersey's 5th District.

But Aronsohn, like many longshot Democratic candidates across the nation, has gained at least a glimmer of hope for an upset because of the continuing and building problems that have forced the Republican Party on the defensive, even in some of their usually safe districts. CQ has moved its rating of this race to Republican Favored from its Safe Republican category to reflect these changes. [..]

Some Republican incumbents facing serious races have scrambled to distance themselves from [Speaker J. Dennis] Hastert. But Garrett is not one of them. A conservative stalwart who reliably votes with the GOP leadership on legislation, Garrett made clear his continuing support by re-confirming an Oct. 16 campaign fundraiser which Hastert is scheduled to attend. [..]

Aronsohn concedes that he faces challenging obstacles, including low name recognition. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not prioritized the race in this regularly Republican-leaning district, forcing Aronsohn to search elsewhere for the financial resources to become better known. [..]

Aronsohn argues that Garrett leans too far to the right on many issues of importance to many voters ?- including Republican-inclined moderates in a district that was represented by GOP centrist Marge Roukema for 22 years prior to the 2002 election of Garrett, who twice previously had challenged Roukema in Republican primaries.

Aronsohn has challenged the incumbent on embryonic stem cell research, abortion rights and the teaching of intelligent design as an alternative to the theory of evolution in public schools.

Aronsohn said that Garrett "flies under the radar" on many of these issues. He claims that during the course of his "Walk the Walk" door-knocking campaign, he's found "the more people know about Scott Garrett, the less people like him." [..]

But the 5th District's history of Republican voting was underscored in 2004, [when] Bush was favored by 57 percent of 5th District voters. They also re-elected Garrett with 58 percent of the vote.

Tenn. Senate candidates trade barbs

Tue Oct 10

Tennessee's U.S. Senate candidates traded caricatures during a debate Tuesday night that painted a grim choice for voters: rubber stamp or political insider.

"If you want a rubber stamp, don't vote for me," said Democrat Harold Ford Jr., suggesting his opponent would lock step with the Bush administration.

Counterpunching, Republican Bob Corker accused the Memphis congressman of being a Washington insider who benefited from the "machine-style" politics of his politically connected family. [..]

Corker, a former Chattanooga mayor, questioned the work of Ford's father, former U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Sr., as a lobbyist for Fannie Mae while Ford Jr. sat on the House committee overseeing its activities.

Ford said no one in his family has ever lobbied him on congressional issues and he would refuse them if they did. [..]

Ford attacked his opponent's support for the Bush administration's "stay the course" policy in Iraq.

"If you want to stay the course, I'm not your guy," Ford said. "If you believe America is better than what they've given us this past six years, then I ask for your vote."

Ford said reducing dependence on foreign oil would help keep the country from getting caught up in foreign conflicts and said his opponent was an advocate for "big oil."

Corker said "new strategies" are needed in the war but he disagreed with Ford's suggestion to divide Iraq by ethnic and religious lines.

"That's something European countries did after World War II," Corker said.

Ford blamed the Republicans for not doing anything to rein in federal spending during their 12 years of power in Congress. He also said he supported going to a two-year budget cycle. [..]

I've lived a Tennessee life, my opponent has lived a Washington life," Corker said. "Our world views couldn't be any more different."

Patriot Act a dominant issue in debate

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

The Patriot Act and its role in fighting terrorism - or squashing civil rights, depending on your point of view - dominated a U.S. Senate debate here Monday night, as all three candidates clashed over the law.

U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., defended its expansion of government investigators' powers, saying it has helped fight terrorism and other illegal activity.

"You have not given up one freedom under the Patriot Act that you didn't have before, unless you're a terrorist or suspected terrorist - or unless you are affiliated with the Mafia, or with drug kingpins," Burns told an audience of 1,200 people at the Strand Union Ballroom on the Montana State University campus.

That remark brought a sharp rejoinder from Libertarian Stan Jones of Bozeman, who said the act allows certain suspects to be locked up forever without an attorney or civil trial.

"I'm sorry, (senator), you're telling me that I'm guilty of being a terrorist first," Jones said to Burns. "You've turned our legal system upside down. I have to prove my innocence. We have to turn this thing off."

Democrat Jon Tester, who has said the act should be repealed, also reiterated his criticisms that it needlessly takes away individual freedoms while the war on terror is being bungled by the Bush administration. [..]

Yet the rest of the debate - the fourth in this closely watched contest - offered little else in the way of oral fireworks or anything new, as the candidates mostly repeated well-worn campaign themes.

Burns, a Republican seeking his fourth consecutive term, touted the federal money he has brought to Montana State University and talked up President Bush's tax cuts, saying they have been the primer for a growing economy.

Tester, a Big Sandy farmer and Montana state Senate president, who had a 7-percentage-point lead in the latest independent poll, said the country needs new leadership and a change of direction. Voters should throw out a corrupt Congress dominated by corporate interests and their lobbyists, he said.

"We'd better prioritize better and start looking out for middle-class folks," he said. "But that's not the folks who have control back in D.C. right now."

Jones, appearing for the first time in a debate with Burns and Tester, said the federal government needs to abolish most of its departments and cease "unconstitutional" activities. He also said the world is moving toward a "one-world Communist government," controlled by international trade agreements.

On college tuition, Tester said higher education "is almost unattainable" for some because of its cost, and slammed Burns for voting for a bill this year that cut a federal tax credit for tuition costs.

The government needs to increase grants and low-interest loans for college students, rather than scale back on these programs, he said.

Burns replied later that college tuition in Montana has gone up 48 percent while Tester has been in the state Senate - but didn't mention that Republicans controlled the governorship and the Legislature for the first six of Tester's eight years in the state Senate.

Allen, Webb spar in final TV debate

Tue Oct 10

Republican Sen. George Allen and his Democratic challenger Jim Webb sparred with both each other and their pasts during the final televised debate in Virginia's tight, closely watched U.S. Senate race.

The face-off Monday shed little new light on the positions of either candidate in a race that could help determine whether the GOP retains control of the Senate. Both sides generally evoked boilerplate answers, often lifted directly from campaign literature.

<snip>

Throughout the debate, Webb looked tense, his eyes riveted on his off-camera questioners or on Allen. His answers were detailed, sometimes to the point of wonkishness; his delivery sometimes halting.

Allen, a veteran of numerous TV debates in his long political career, appeared relaxed, his eyes connecting comfortably with the camera, even as he offered up refrains he has used for years and made a practice of opening his response with attacks on Webb.

At least three times, Allen took pains to link Webb, a former Republican, with Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry [..].

The debate spun out of control during a segment in which candidates were allowed to ask each other questions. Allen and Webb became argumentative, talking over one another and making it virtually impossible to understand what either was saying.

The most heated exchange centered on taxes. Allen said he has supported tax cuts that Webb has criticized. Webb said tax cuts during a time of increased federal spending and a growing deficit are unwise.

"You can't keep spending like this without increasing revenues," Webb said.

Allen asked Webb if he knew "how many Virginians have benefited from the tax relief you criticize." For nearly a minute, the candidates talked at the same time before the debate's moderator finally intervened and Allen ended the exchange by saying: "The answer is 3 million Virginians."

[Connecticut] 4th District candidates debate Iraq war

Although the official topic of Sunday night's debate of 4th District congressional candidates was plural, international affairs, it might as well have been singular, because one subject, the Iraq war, dominated the give and take.

<snip>

Toward the end of the debate the participants tackled the topic of Darfur in Africa was raised. [sic]

Shays said that European nations must do more there and U.S. planes should "shoot down at Sudanese planes that are bombing civilians."

Farrell said that China's help should be enlisted in east Africa because "they have a lot of good experience there."

Farrell charged that Shays and the Republican Congress have done nothing to challenge the administration's failure to end the country's dependence on Mideast oil, and its profligate borrowing to pay the escalating costs of the Iraq war. That borrowing, she said, has resulted in a "stranglehold on the U.S. by the lending nations."

Michael Cobb on NCSU Iraq Survey

Dr. Cobb is an assistant professor of political science at North Carolina State University who specializes in survey research and polling methods.

In a recent poll that Dr. William Boettcher and I conducted with the Institute for Southern Studies, we asked some unique questions about Iraq and we received some unexpected answers. The poll was administered by Knowledge Networks, Inc., included 1,342 respondents, and was conducted from Sept. 19-26. [..]

Bill and I are interested in the perceived goals and probability of success in Iraq, but when we looked around we could not find many surveys asking people what they thought was the primary US goal. Questions about goals were mostly limited to asking whether Iraq was part of the war on terrorism, and a few asked about whether Iraq was already experiencing a civil war.

So, in one question on our survey, we asked respondents what they thought was the primary US goal in Iraq. We asked respondents to choose one goal among four possible alternative mission objectives, but we also permitted respondents to answer "something else" and to subsequently type in their response [..]. The question is as follows:

The following are commonly cited as US goals in Iraq. Which one do you think is the primary reason the US is in Iraq today? Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism We are promoting Democracy in Iraq and in the Middle East We are preventing Iraq from sliding into a civil war We want to ensure access to oil Something else_____________

What caught our attention was the answer distribution that resulted in a plurality of respondents identifying "access to oil" as the main reason we are currently in Iraq. After we re-coded a majority of the "something else" responses into one new "objective" or back into one of the original four goals, the breakdown was as follows (before we coded the something else responses, 15% had said something else and oil was just 30%):

Oil = 34% Terrorism = 26% Democracy = 25% Preventing Civil War = 7% General cynicism about/towards Bush = 7%

To be perfectly honest, we had a hard time determining a non-administration preferred mission frame, and belatedly added "oil" as our fourth alternative. We certainly did not expect oil to be the plurality response. Not only is the goal of access to oil rarely mentioned in the mainstream media coverage about Iraq, but also when oil is mentioned as a goal, it is often framed as a crackpot conspiracy.

So my question is this: why are people picking oil as the goal?

Read on..

And the key indicator here is that it's the Democrats who are particularly enthused about voting now - while motivation among Republicans is the same as in other midterm elections, and less than in 2002.

"engage in rampant negativism"..."they are all miscreants"