News & discussion on house and senate races

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Bush Approval: Still rising



Three new polls continue to support a rise in President Bush's job approval rating. The Cook/RT Strategies poll taken 9/21-24/06 (RV) finds approval at 40%, disapproval at 50%. The Democracy Corps (Greenberg) poll of 9/17-19/06 (LV) has approval at 44, disapproval at 52. And the CNN/ORC poll from 9/22-24/06 (A) reads 42% approve and 55% disapprove. (RV, LV and A are the populations sampled: Registered or Likely voters, and Adults, respectively.)

These results neatly bracket the trend line, which now stands at 41.8% approval. We continue to see the usual variability across polls, but the upward trend has been consistent across a substantial number of polls since mid-August when the current upturn began. So far there is no indication that the rate of increase has changed, and that rate is sharper than either of the two previous rallies since January 2005, having risen some 5 points in 5 weeks.

The question everyone wants answered is what effect will this have on the House and Senate races. So far, not much. The House generic ballot initially moved 2 points in a Republican direction, but has now stabilized. [..] In the individual Senate races, the trend has, if anything, favored the Democrats slightly over the most recent polling. [..] The approval rating remains quite low for a president at midterm, so the upward trend, while strong, may not in fact signal much positive influence of the improved Bush ratings for Republican congressional candidates. At best, they may reduce the weight of the anchor those ratings were previously. On the other hand, if approval continues up at its current pace, and if we assume it is higher in the most critical swing districts than it is nationally, then by election day presidential approval could have become a positive asset for Republicans in the most crucial races. (Note the two "ifs" in that last sentence.)

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Bush Approval: Thee polls agree on 42%



Three new polls all tell the same story today. Approval of President Bush stands at 42% in new Fox, Hotline and Zogby polls. And the current trend estimate is now 42.2% to boot.

The Fox poll was completed 9/26-27/06 among 900 likely voters, finding 54% disapproval. The Diageo/Hotline poll was done 9/24-26/06 interviewed 800 registered voters, and got disapproval at 56%. The Reuters/Zogby telephone (not internet) poll was done 9/22-25/06 among 1000 likely voters, and has 58% disapproval. All three polls also show increases over the past two or three polls. [..]

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Bush Approval: NBC/WSJ and CNN at 39%



Two new polls find approval of President Bush has fallen after a week of mostly bad news. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, taken 9/30-10/2/06 finds approval at 39% and disapproval at 56%. The CNN/ORC poll conducted 9/29-10/2/06 also puts approval at 39%, with disapproval at 59%. Both polls had registered approval at 42% in their previous readings. These polls come after a week that included debate over a new National Intelligence Estimate's conclusions on terrorism and Iraq, Bob Woodward's new book, and culminating with revelations of Rep. Mark Foley's email contacts with congressional pages. The polling was completed before the Washington Times called for House Speaker Dennis Hastert's resignation as speaker.

The new data do not yet lead to a major change in my approval trend estimate. That currently stands at 41.4%. That's a revision down from 42.0%, but the trend has not yet turned clearly down. The trend line is deliberately conservative, and usually requires 6-12 polls before considering a change of direction reliable. The three point drop in two polls, however, does suggest that President Bush may have suffered a significant reversal over the past week, after some 6 weeks of strong upward movement in approval. It is likely that more new polling will arrive soon, helping clarify how much of this move is a "blip" and how much a harbinger of a change in direction.

From what I read most Repubs will not be affected by the Foley issue. Even those who accepted money from Foley's PAC (and quickly donated it to charity when the issue exploded) seem to be unaffected.

I just don't see that large a percentage switching their votes from one party to another based on the Foley issue.

The danger, or a danger of more consequence, is the number of voters who will become so disgusted with the quality of our legislators that they will stop participating. I don't know who that "helps" in the short-term.

Talent's Bid for Second Term Just Like His First ?- a Tossup

Sep. 29, 2006

Had Missouri Republican Sen. Jim Talent been up for re-election in 2004, he might have won without major difficulty. Missouri, long regarded as one of the nation's premier partisan swing states, has conservative tendencies that create a trend in favor of Republicans such as Talent [..].

But, in Missouri as across the nation, Talent is staging his second Senate bid in a political atmosphere that is far more difficult for Republican candidates. That factor, combined with the Democrats' recruitment of a strong candidate in state Auditor Claire McCaskill, has put Talent's seat at serious risk ?- and spurred CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. [..]

The state has two ballot initiatives, including one that would implement a minimum wage increase and another to allow scientists in the state to conduct any form of stem cell research permitted under federal law and to ensure Missouri patients access to any cures and therapies that might result from such research.

A minimum wage increase could give McCaskill an edge by driving Democrats to the polls, especially since Talent is against the initiative [..] The stem-cell issue's impact on the Senate contest is harder to fathom. Most voters have told pollsters that they support stem cell research [..]. This would seem especially dicey for Talent, who, like many fellow social conservatives, opposes research on stem cells extracted from human embryos because he believes this destroys life. But conservative activists who oppose the procedure are seen as highly motivated and could turn out heavily at the polls, thus benefiting Talent. [..]

Talent's campaign has focused on presenting himself to Missourians as independent from Bush. Talent's ads against McCaskill have focused on a negative depiction of her performance as state auditor. Talent's campaign has also used its ads to try to brand McCaskill as too liberal a Democrat to represent Missouri. [..]

McCaskill's ads have mainly focused on her endorsements from police officials and a record as auditor that she portrays as tough-on-bad-guys, Robertson said. The challenger's anti-Talent ads focus onto tying him to Bush. [..]

One area in which Talent had a clear advantage over McCaskill was in fundraising ?- at least as of July 19, the last date for which the candidates have reported campaign finance activity. Talent as of that date had raised more than twice as much money as McCaskill, with $9.9 million in receipts to her $4.6 million. [..]

Kimball said the race is a toss-up right now, with the national mood running against Republicans. "But Talent's the incumbent, with more money, a pretty effective campaigner, and a good Republican turnout operation," he said.

Musgrave's Priorities at Issue in Increasingly Close Colo. 4 Race

Sep. 28, 2006

Colorado's 4th Congressional District has been Republican "red" for decades. But continued debate over Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's staunch social-issues conservatism, and the emergence of Democratic state Rep. Angie Paccione as a solid challenger, have prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating on this year's 4th District contest to Leans Republican from Republican Favored. [..]

There is no question that the 4th normally is fertile territory for Republicans. Many areas of the district, which takes in Fort Collins and also Colorado's eastern plains, have not been represented by a Democrat in the House since the early 1970s. President Bush in 2004 took 58 percent of the district vote.

But that same year, Musgrave won a second House term by just 51 percent to 45 percent over Democrat Stan Matsunaka, a veteran state lawmaker [..]. And though it took a while this year for Paccione to build support for her bid [..], recent public opinion surveys have shown her within a few points of Musgrave.

"It's hard to call. But I think if I had to call it today, I'd say Musgrave, but not by a very big margin," said John Straayer, a political scientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins.

A main thrust of Paccione's campaign is that Musgrave has become so consumed by her signature social issue ?- a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage ?- that she has failed to work on important issues for the district.

"She's had a very singular focus on this wedge issue, and that's been all that she does," Paccione said in an interview. "She doesn't do anything for the district. I call it the ?'Musgrave fatigue.' People are tired of her ?- they're tired of the fact that that's the only thing that she'll push." [..]

Musgrave's legislative history does reveal a socially conservative focus. In addition to the marriage amendment, she has introduced bills or resolutions this year to require parental notification for minors' abortions; to declare 2007 as "National Year of the Bible"; and to amend an appropriations bill to prohibit the use of funds to enforce a requirement that trigger locks be sold with all handguns. [..]

The campaign has gotten heated on television and radio. The Musgrave campaign has aired a television ad that accuses Paccione of supporting positions on immigration issues that are tantamount to supporting "amnesty."

"Who put out the welcome mat for illegal aliens? Angie Paccione ?- a supporter of amnesty," a narrator says in Musgrave's ad. Later in the ad, an image of Paccione is superimposed on a map of Mexico as the narrator says, "Angie Paccione ?- she's on the wrong side of the border." [..]

Like many Democratic candidates nationwide, Paccione is seeking to nationalize the race by linking the Republican incumbent to Bush ?- even though the president proved popular in the district just two years ago. A Paccione ad displays Bush kissing Musgrave on the forehead, with Paccione saying in a voice-over that "what this administration and what this Congress has done is really sold out to the special interests."

The November ballot also will include Reform Party nominee Eric Eidsness, a former Republican who served as the Environmental Protection Agency's assistant administrator for water during the administration of President Ronald Reagan. His priorities include developing a strategy for more water storage; opposing the Bush administration's policies on Iraq; supporting a balanced budget amendment and a presidential line-item veto; and curtailing or eliminating so-called appropriations "earmarks."

Paccione's campaign is hopeful that Eidsness will drain votes from Musgrave. But Short said that Musgrave's internal polling shows that Eidsness is pulling significantly more support from Paccione than he is from the congresswoman.

Colorado Roundup: 5th District No Longer Safe for GOP

Oct. 02, 2006

Several House districts that usually are Republican strongholds are unexpectedly subject to serious Democratic Party challenges this year. Most of these involve a political or personal scandal involving the Republican incumbent.

That, however, is not the GOP's problem in the contest in Colorado's 5th District, on which CQPolitics.com has changed its ratings to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Rather, it is serious resentment engendered by their nominee, state Sen. Doug Lamborn, during his hard-hitting campaign for the Aug. 8 primary that has made the open-seat race less than a slam dunk for the Republicans in the overwhelmingly conservative 5th ?- a south-central Colorado district (including Colorado Springs), where President Bush took 66 percent of the vote in 2004.

In the Aug. 8 primary, Lamborn finished first in a six-candidate Republican field, edging out Jeff Crank, a former top aide to retiring 10-term Republican Rep. Joel Hefley. Lamborn went negative on Crank, with backup assistance from the conservative national group the Club for Growth [..].

There would be no unity rally in the wake of the primary. Lamborn's campaign so angered Hefley that he has refused to endorse the nominee, and was even reported to have briefly considered backing Democratic nominee Jay Fawcett, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who served in the 1990-91 Iraq war. [..]

House GOP Fundraising Chair Has a New Concern ?- His Own Seat

Oct. 02, 2006

Four-term New York Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds ?- who heads the committee orchestrating the Republicans' national House campaign this year ?- already faced a vigorous and increasingly competitive longshot challenge, even before the stunning scandal involving Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley blew up last Friday.

But reports that Reynolds, as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), had knowledge as early as last year of some of the inappropriate Internet communications from Foley to an underage male congressional page have drawn him deeply into the controversy, and may well damage his chances of winning a fifth House term on Nov. 7.

CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on Reynolds' race against Democratic businessman Jack Davis to Leans Republican from Safe Republican.

[..] it is highly doubtful that Democratic officials and strategists will easily let the matter die ?- especially in light of recent news reports that Reynolds, as NRCC chairman, has authorized an elaborate and expensive "opposition research" effort aimed at digging up negative information about Democratic challenger candidates across the nation.

Even before the Foley scandal occurred, Davis was emerging as a credible challenger in a rematch of his 2004 upset bid, in which he unexpectedly held Reynolds to 56 percent of the vote ?- 18 percentage points lower than the incumbent's 2002 vote share, and just about the same as the modest 55 percent received by President Bush in the district.

Reynolds had argued after that election that he had lost some votes because he failed to take Davis' challenge seriously enough and had spent the bulk of his time traveling the nation on behalf of other Republican House candidates. His reapplied campaign effort back home, and a campaign treasury of nearly $3 million as of Aug. 23, appeared for most of the year to have boosted Reynolds back to political security.

But Davis seemed to be make significant headway in recent weeks, aided greatly by the difficult political atmosphere facing Republicans in general this year. A poll released last week by SurveyUSA had both candidates within the margin of error [..].

[..] Davis has run a campaign focused on the same bread-and-butter issues as he did two years ago ?- focusing particularly on his opposition to free-trade pacts that he argues have cost American jobs.

A recent Davis TV ad stated, "Tom Reynolds said yes to CAFTA, yes to China [a reference to favorable trade status for that nation], and goodbye to 40,000 Western New York jobs," while taking money from multinational corporations outsourcing jobs. [..]

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had not given Davis any money as of Sept. 1, but listed the contest as an "emerging race," denoting it as one of 16 contests in a traditional Republican stronghold where a vigorous Democratic underdog was threatening to put the race into play. [..]

Davis [..] faces a significant money deficit to Reynolds. As of Aug. 23, he had raised $755,000 and spent most of it in an effort to establish himself as a serious challenger ?- leaving him with $63,000 in cash on hand to Reynolds' $2.8 million.

But Davis is wealthy and has shown no hesitation to reach deeply into his own pockets. Of Davis' total receipts, $739,000 (or 98 percent) were self-funded.

Democrat Mahoney Has the Edge in Race for Seat Foley Vacated

Tue Oct 3

What until last Friday appeared a safely Republican seat in Florida's 16th District is now anything but, in the wake of the resignation of six-term Republican Rep. Mark Foley ?- and the ballooning scandal surrounding inappropriate e-mails and instant messages he sent to teenage male congressional pages, and the Republican leadership's handling of the situation.

CQPolitics.com, which on Friday changed its rating on the Florida 16 race to No Clear Favorite from Safe Republican, now rates the race as Leans Democratic.

The beneficiary of the contest's drastically altered circumstances is Democratic nominee Tim Mahoney. Regarded as a real longshot in his bid against the long-popular Foley ?- who won his 2004 contest with 68 percent of the vote ?- Mahoney nonetheless provides the Democrats with a credible candidate as they rush into the 16th District's breach.

Mahoney is the co-founder of a financial services company, founder of a non-profit group that promotes entrepreneurship and a rancher. He also had opened eyes by reporting $1.1 million in total campaign receipts as of Aug. 16.

Republicans argue that voters in the Republican-leaning south-central Florida district will, over the short five weeks before Election Day, put the Foley scandal behind them and elect their replacement candidate, state Rep. Joe Negron, who was selected by state party officials on Monday.

But the Republicans face an enormous obstacle, the result of an unusual quirk in Florida election law. The law does permit the Republicans to pick a new nominee, but deems it too close to the election to remove Foley's name from the Nov. 7 ballot. [..]

The extremely steep challenge that the GOP faces informing and persuading voters to think "Negron" when they see "Foley" received confirmation Monday from a wholly unexpected source: House Majority Leader John A. Boehner.

Boehner, an Ohio Republican, was asked by conservative commentator Sean Hannity on his ABC Radio Network talk show, "So you think you lost a seat here?" in reference to Foley's district. Boehner responded, "I do." [..]

Feder's Success a Sign of Dems' Improving Odds in Va. 10

Oct. 04, 2006

Democrat Judy Feder, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton on health care policy, picked no small challenge to launch her political career this year. She is running for the House in Virginia's Republican-leaning 10th Congressional District, and is seeking to upset a 13-term incumbent in Republican Rep. Frank R. Wolf, a long-popular fixture in the rapidly populating outer suburbs and exurbs of Washington, D.C.

But an increasingly toxic political atmosphere for Republicans in general ?- combined with changing demographics in Northern Virginia that have produced some recent Democratic successes in local elections ?- have invigorated Feder's longshot campaign. CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Wolf remains very likely to retain his seat. He retains his traditional advantages, including a seat on the influential Appropriations Committee that enables him to deliver federal dollars for 10th District projects. [..]

But Mark J. Rozell, a professor at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., said one factor that may give Democrats hope is that Northern Virginia is in transition. Since the 1990s, new residents, including a substantial number of immigrants, have poured into the district, which runs across Northern Virginia from the increasingly congested Washington, D.C., suburbs of Fairfax and Loudoun counties to the state's rural border with West Virginia. [..]

Feder, who is the dean of Georgetown University's Public Policy Institute and a former Clinton administration appointee, is the most credible challenger Wolf has faced in years, according to political science professor Ronald Rapoport [..]. He said, however, that Wolf's personal popularity and reputation for tending to his constituents' needs will be difficult for Feder to overcome. [..]

Despite the long odds, Feder's fundraising efforts have provided another bright spot for the Democrats ?- particularly since the district mainly lies in the expensive Washington media market. [..] As of June 30, Feder had about $461,000 on hand to Wolf's roughly $636,000. [..]

[H]er campaign isn't included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) "Red to Blue" program, which gives money to the party's most competitive challengers seeking to convert Republican "red" districts to Democratic "blue." But last month, Feder got a boost when the DCCC included her campaign on its list of "emerging races." [..]

So far, Feder has played to her party's strengths, hammering away at Wolf on issues such as the war in Iraq and high energy prices. To be competitive, however, Rozell said she will have to put the focus on local issues, such as traffic and growth.

If Feder is able to pull upwards of 45 percent, he said, it will be a boon for future Democratic races. But "as long as Wolf is there," Rozell added, "he's going to be a tough nut to crack."

Abramoff Allegations Make Brown a Legit Threat to Doolittle

Oct. 04, 2006

Eight-term Republican Rep. John T. Doolittle of California's 4th District has not faced legal repercussions stemming from his past association with now-convicted Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Still to be determined, though, is whether there will be any serious reverberations on Nov. 7 ?- when voters go the polls in a Republican stronghold that the conservative Doolittle has dominated in his past elections.

A vigorous underdog challenge is being waged by the Democratic nominee, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown, prompting CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the 4th District race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Brown's campaign has largely focused on trying to tie Doolittle, and his past links to Abramoff, to a "culture of corruption" that the challenger and many Democrats alleged has been created by the Republicans who control Congress.

Doolittle's wife worked for a fundraising company hired by Abramoff, but she has consistently denied any knowledge of corrupt actions that resulted in the convictions of Abramoff, several of his professional associates and, to date, one member of Congress: Ohio Republican Rep. Bob Ney. [..]

Doolittle received contributions from Abramoff and American Indian tribes the lobbyist represented in the past, but Doolittle maintains no unethical actions were taken in exchange for those donations.

Brown, though, is trying to portray otherwise, focusing in part on Abramoff's efforts as a lobbyist to gain waivers from federal labor laws for factories based in the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. territory in the north Pacific.

Brown last week released an automated phone call to 4th District voters, narrated by Wendy Doromal: She said that, as a government investigator, she uncovered sweatshops, forced abortions, religious persecution and sex slavery in the Mariana Islands and gave the information to Doolittle. "Congressman Doolittle did nothing to stop these abuses. In fact, he took thousands of dollars from convicted congressional briber Jack Abramoff, who represented the Mariana Islands government," Doromal states in the tape.

The phone campaign is twinned with a radio ad that claims: "Doolittle actually helped fund the local government that tolerated forced abortions. And he refuses to return campaign contributions tied to this corrupt government."

Doolittle hit back in a radio ad of his own ?- featuring a former California colleague, retired Republican Rep. Doug Ose ?- comparing Brown's rhetoric to that of such liberals as anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan and actor Sean Penn. [..]

Brown said he was raised Republican but began to have a change of heart about 15 years ago. "I did not leave the Republican Party. The Republican Party left me," said Brown, who cited what he believes are the GOP's inabilities to keep the country safe, care for veterans, and protect the environment [..].

Brown said he was heartened by a group of supporters calling themselves "Republicans for Charlie Brown" who launched a rally for him in early September.

Indeed, in order to be viable, Brown will need support from the local Republican constituency in a largely rural northeastern California district that gave President Bush 61 percent of their votes in 2004, and gave Doolittle 65 percent that same year. [..]

Shuler Survives Ad Barrage, Makes N.C. 11 Race as Tossup

Oct. 04, 2006

Eight-term Republican Rep. Charles H. Taylor of North Carolina's 11th District faces a seriously threatening challenge this year from Democrat Heath Shuler, a first-time candidate whose fame as a former football star offsets his lack of political experience. So Taylor ?- with a powerful assist from national Republican campaign officials ?- have tried to knock Shuler off his stride by raising questions about his personal finances.

The latest independent poll on the race, however, raised questions about the success of the GOP strategy: A survey done for Reuters by the Zogby organization showed Shuler leading Taylor by 51 percent to 40 percent. Although Taylor maintains some key advantages that could ultimately enable him to hold on to the seat, Shuler's strength as a candidate has spurred CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

The Reuters/Zogby poll came after Shuler endured an ad barrage financed by independent expenditures from the GOP's House campaign wing, the National Republican Congressional Committee. The ad highlighted an Associated Press story that focused on $69,000 in late taxes incurred by Heath Shuler Real Estate company in Knoxville, Tenn. [..]

Shuler, for his part, introduced himself on the airwaves in an upbeat, issues-oriented advertisement his campaign calls "Heath positive." But over the past month, he too has gone negative against Taylor [..]. Most of Shuler's ads now feature a litany of reasons why Taylor has allegedly lost touch with his constituents. Among other charges, one ad accused Taylor of voting in favor of amnesty for illegal immigrants [..].

Shuler has also benefited from a series of automated phone calls from anti-Taylor interest groups that blame the incumbent for sending jobs overseas and supporting the 2003 Medicare prescription drug benefit law [..]. The most recent, accusing Taylor of weakness on port security issues, was funded by American Family Voices, an organization headed by Democratic consultant Mike Lux. [..]

Stender Has Shot at Beating Ferguson, Ending GOP Streak

Oct. 05, 2006

Republican strategists hoped that three-term GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson's strong 2004 showing in New Jersey's 7th District had answered the question of whether he is politically vulnerable. Despite the Democrats' efforts to promote their nominee, Marine Corps veteran Steve Brozak [..]Ferguson easily won by 57 percent to 42 percent.

Yet the district is still in play in the 2006 campaign, so much so that CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Leans Republican from Republican Favored.

The 7th District, located in the New York City suburbs, leans Republican but isn't a Party stronghold: District voters favored President Bush over Democrat John Kerry by a modest 53 percent to 46 percent, and that was before a series of problems sent the president's approval ratings plummeting.

Making this year's House race even more competitive is the fact that the Democrats are running a solid challenger in state Rep. Linda Stender, a deputy speaker of the state Assembly and former mayor of Fanwood. [..]

Stender has hammered Ferguson on everything from his support for the Iraq war to his staunch opposition to abortion. She is aiming to persuade voters in this potential swing district that Ferguson is tied too closely to Bush and the Republican leadership in Congress.

Ferguson's House voting record provides the challenger with some ammunition. A CQ "presidential support" study showed Ferguson sided with Bush on 87 percent of House votes in 2005 on which the president took a position, 6 percentage points above the average for all House Republicans and the highest score in the New Jersey delegation. [..]

But Ferguson has rejected Stender's contention that he is an automatic vote for the Republican leadership, pointing to votes he has cast against oil drilling in the Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and a repeal of workplace ergonomic regulations instituted by the administration of President Bill Clinton. [..]

Ferguson also enjoys two structural advantages that help him maintain an edge in the race.

One is that the district's Republican roots are strong. Ferguson won in 2000 to succeed Republican Bob Franks (1993-2001), who had left the seat for a Senate bid that failed. For two decades previously, most of the area in the current 7th was represented by Rep. Matthew J. Rinaldo, a Republican who often allied with organized labor.

The other big strength for Ferguson was a major head start on fundraising. It is not that Stender is short-changed: At mid-year, she reported $900,000 in campaign receipts [..]; that made Stender one of the leading fundraisers among House challengers. But Ferguson at that point had more than twice as much: a little more than $2 million. [..]

Clout, Seniority Not Enough to Give Shaw an Edge in Fla. 22

Oct. 05, 2006

[..] Republican Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr., in his bid for a 14th term [in Florida's 22nd District], drew a strong opponent in Democratic state Sen. Ron Klein in a south Florida district where Democrat John Kerry narrowly edged President Bush in 2004.

With Klein appearing to run step for step with Shaw, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

Through most of the contest, Shaw appeared to rate at least a slight edge, because of his longterm popularity and position as a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee.

But a national political environment that has been troubled for the GOP all year hasn't gotten better ?- and may in fact have worsened with the eruption of the scandal involving Shaw's longtime congressional neighbor, resigned 16th District Republican Mark Foley. [..]

"We've been pushing a very strong, solid, consistent message, of Mr. Shaw being essentially a rubber stamp for George Bush, not standing up to him on the war [in Iraq] and various other things," Klein campaign manager Brian Smoot told CQPolitics.com [..].

Republicans point out that Shaw has weathered difficult re-elections in the past, including his 2000 race against Democratic state Rep. Elaine Bloom, whom Shaw beat by just 600 votes. They also note that [after 2000, a] Republican-drawn redistricting plan added some Republican voters and shifted some Democrats to other districts. [..]

Republican officials' actions suggest they are aware that Shaw's seat is at risk this year. The national Republican Party, in September alone, spent $526,000 on independent expenditures aimed at helping Shaw secure victory. That made Shaw one of the top 10 beneficiaries of GOP independent expenditures [..].

Shaw's role as the former chairman of the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security gave Shaw oversight of issues affecting his constituents, more than 20 percent of whom are 65 or older.

But Democrats are hammering at the fact that Shaw is a vocal supporter of Bush's poorly received proposal to establish an individual investment accounts program with Social Security ?- and are also criticizing Shaw for his support of the 2003 Medicare prescription drug benefit bill, which critics describe as chintzy to beneficiaries and too generous to pharmaceutical companies.

Klein held a campaign event at a doughnut shop last month to emphasize the fact that many seniors covered by the program, known as Medicare Part D, are reaching the "doughnut hole" in their coverage. That term describes the provision in the law that requires some beneficiaries to pay costs out of pocket when their drug costs total between $2,251 to $5,100. [..]

Democrats have also pushed the war in Iraq as another campaign issue, and Klein launched a commercial that quotes Shaw saying, "The war is over. We won the war."

The ad drew strong criticism from the Shaw campaign [which] said the quote is a misrepresentation and provided his full comment [..]: "We won the war, because we were fighting the government. But now we're fighting a faceless enemy."

I just don't see that large a percentage switching their votes from one party to another based on the Foley issue. There are too many others to be passionate about on one side or the other: Iraq, immigration and on and on.

the newest AP/Ipsos poll also showed that half of likely voters say the Foley scandal will be "very or extremely important" when it comes time to vote on Nov. 7.

Comcast pulls contested ad

A House candidate says the GOP falsely said she opposed a bill to provide body armor to troops.

Comcast Corp. pulled a cable-television advertisement Sunday that Democratic congressional candidate Lois Murphy claimed was false and misleading.

The ad, prepared by the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that Murphy opposed a bill that would provide body armor to troops in Iraq.

"Hard to believe," the announcer said, as "Source: Vote 669, 12/19/2005" appeared on the screen.

Murphy, who is challenging U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R., Pa.) in the Sixth Congressional District, could not have participated in the vote since she doesn't hold office, and has stated she supports funding for body armor, said James Lamb, her attorney in Washington.

Comcast spokeswoman Dana Runnells said it pulled the ad "for further review." [..]

Ed Patru, a spokesman for the NRCC, defended the ad. Murphy criticized the bill the House voted on that day, he said. "I have a press release."

The House on Dec. 19 passed a defense appropriations bill with a rider attached to it that would have opened drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve.

After a filibuster in the Senate stalled a similar pairing, the defense bill was passed without the Arctic drilling provision.

Murphy in a news release admonished Gerlach for betraying "his promise to protect the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge."

In letters to Comcast, Lamb complained that the ad ignored statements and news releases in which Murphy said "no American soldier should be sent to war without adequate body armor."

Patru said Murphy's opposition to the drilling provision meant that she opposed the defense appropriation. "You don't get to pick or choose the provisions" attached to bills, he said.

The NRCC paid $63,000 for cable time through Saturday in the Sixth District, which stretches from Chester County north past Reading.

Patru said the NRCC wouldn't ask Comcast to reconsider.

In Tennessee, Ford Surges Ahead

October 02, 2006

Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) continues to garner momentum and has surged into the lead in Tennessee's U.S. Senate race, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey. Ford currently leads Bob Corker (R) 48% to 43%, a six-point bump since early September. Over the past three months, Ford has gained an astonishing 17 net points in the polls.

Key statistic: "Ford has an edge with unaffiliated voters and leads by a whopping 70% to 23% among moderates."

In PA-10, Sherwood Faces Possible Defeat

October 03, 2006

In Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district, a new Lycoming College poll shows Chris Carney (D) leading Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA) 46.7% to 38.2%.

"The only other independent, non-partisan poll of the race, taken in late August, showed Carney ahead by seven points."

Though Sherwood is the congressman who was accused of choking his girlfriend -- and later apologized to his wife and family -- President Bush will be campaigning for him later this month.

Election Scorecard / Oct. 3, 2006

Yes, Virginia, you are now a statistical tossup?-barely. A new poll from Rasmussen Reports narrows George Allen's lead on our last-five-poll average to just four percentage points (47.8 percent to 43.8 percent). Three weeks and four surveys ago, Allen's average lead was nearly twice as large (47.8 percent to 40 percent), so the quickening pace of polling has helped move this race to tossup status. But a caution: The latest Rasmussen poll shows Allen leading by six (49 percent to 43 percent). Another comparable result will push Virginia back to lean Republican.

Three new polls in Tennessee leave the Ford-Corker contest looking like a tossup as much as ever. The surveys from Middle Tennessee State University has Republican Bob Corker running one point ahead of Democrat Harold Ford, while new polls from Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen have Ford ahead by one and five points, respectively. The last five polls give Ford an average lead of just under three points (45.2 percent to 42.4 percent) and show no meaningful momentum toward either candidate.

The new Mason-Dixon survey in New Jersey has Democrat Bob Menendez up by three percentage points over Republican Tom Kean Jr. (44 percent to 41 percent). New Jersey remains a tossup, but this new, favorable result for Menendez shifts the momentum meter from Republican to neutral.

Similarly, new polls from Mason-Dixon show razor-thin margins in Missouri and Rhode Island that reaffirm the status of both states as tossups, while moving the momentum arrow in each state from Democrat back to neutral.

Spending Statistics Reflect House GOP's Defensive Posture

Oct. 03, 2006

There are plenty of signs that Republicans are hunkering down against an aggressive and well-financed Democratic effort to reclaim the House majority it lost in 1994 ?- including the $12.5 million in "independent expenditures" that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported making in September.

A CQPolitics.com analysis of these outlays, made to promote Republican candidates or oppose Democrats in highly competitive races, shows that the NRCC spent almost $11.2 million ?- or 89 percent of the total ?- in districts Republicans are defending. The remaining $1.3 million (11 percent) came in districts Democrats are defending.

Of the $11.2 million spent in Republican-held districts, $7 million was in races for seats in which incumbents are defending. The other $4.2 million was spent in districts that GOP incumbents left open to retire or seek other office.

The overall ratio is much more lopsided than in September 2004, when the Republicans were playing almost as much offense as defense. The split in the NRCC's independent spending then was 56 percent to hold Republican-held districts and 44 percent to try to take over Democratic-held districts. [..]

The Republicans managed to field fewer threatening challenges to House Democrats than in 2004. And the NRCC's counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ?- while trailing the Republicans by a wide margin in overall fundraising ?- is in much better financial shape for the home stretch than it was two years ago.

As September began, the NRCC had $36 million cash-on-hand, compared to $34.9 million for the DCCC. In 2004, the figures were $25.6 million for the Republicans' committee and $20.8 for the Democrats'.

More details..

NRCC Spends Nearly $8 Million in One Day on Tight Races

Oct. 06, 2006
CQPolitics

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported spending $7.8 million on Friday alone for an ongoing "independent expenditure" campaign that aims to boost the many vulnerable House Republican incumbents ?- mainly by attacking their Democratic challengers.

The expenditures, which were disclosed in a filing to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), were spread out over 30 House districts, all but three presently held by Republicans. The outlays were mainly for television advertisements, but also included mail pieces and telephone calls to voters.

The overwhelmingly majority (97.6 percent) of the $7.8 million was coded on the FEC report as spending in opposition of the Democratic candidates. Just $184,375 of the NRCC's Friday outlays, or 2.4 percent of the total, were identified on the report as money spent in support of GOP candidates.

Anti-GOP Mood Gives Dems Clear Lead in Minn. Senate Race

Oct. 06, 2006

Early in the midterm election cycle, Republicans thought three-term Rep. Mark Kennedy was the perfect candidate to run for the Minnesota Senate seat left open by retiring one-term Democrat Mark Dayton. Kennedy represents the 6th District, which cuts a swath from the Twin Cities suburbs to St. Cloud, and has steered money to his state as a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

But despite Kennedy's potential and an aggressive campaign, the GOP's hopes of capturing the seat appear increasingly undermined by the tough national political environment facing the Republican Party. CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favorite.

A variety of independent polls have shown the Democrats' strong nominee, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, with leads over Kennedy. The leads varied somewhat in size, but all were wide. [..]

Klobuchar also gained momentum in polls despite a long-running effort by Kennedy and other Republicans to downgrade the tough-on-crime image she seeks to project as chief prosecutor in the county that includes Minneapolis.

A poll released Sept. 21 by Lawrence R. Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Government at the University of Minnesota, showed Klobuchar leading Kennedy 52 percent to 36 percent. A poll released one week later by the SurveyUSA organization gave Klobuchar a smaller but still significant lead, 51 percent to 43 percent. [..]

[T]he University of Minnesota poll, which showed a somewhat more modest lead, also found that Klobuchar held higher support among Democrats than Kennedy did among Republicans ?- a reversal of usual partisan trends in polls ?- and also showed Klobuchar leading Kennedy by 49 percent to 27 percent among independent voters.

Kennedy's largest problem, Jacobs told CQPolitics.com, is the candidate's perceived alignment with the Bush administration. Another survey released Sept. 19 by SurveyUSA found that 59 percent of state respondents ?- nearly three out of five ?- said they did not approve of the job Bush was doing as president. [..]

Senate Race Summary for Oct. 6:

Rhode Island has gone blue. A new survey from USA Today/Gallup shows Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse leading incumbent Republican Lincoln Chafee by 11 points (50 percent to 39 percent). While Whitehouse's lead in the Gallup poll is much wider than recent polls from Reuters/Zogby (+4) and Mason-Dixon (+1), Whitehouse led (albeit by narrow margins) on every poll conducted since late August. His lead on our last-five-poll average (44.4 percent to 40.0 percent) is now large enough to classify Rhode Island as "lean Democrat."

So, the overall race for control of the Senate has narrowed from a four-seat Republican advantage (50 to 46) a month ago to just a single seat advantage. Right now, 49 seats are held by Republicans or at least lean that way, and 48 seats are held by or lean to Democrats. [..]

WASHINGTON ?- Four weeks before congressional elections, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOP candidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994.

President Bush's approval rating was 37%, down from 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was 24%, down 5 points from last month.

Some polls seem to show that the Foley scandal perhaps hasn't caused many voters to switch their votes. Instead, many social conservatives may simply stay home.

"There is no other way to look at these numbers except to say Tom Reynolds is in trouble," the Utica-based Zogby said...