News & discussion on house and senate races

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Bush Approval: Still rising



Three new polls continue to support a rise in President Bush's job approval rating. The Cook/RT Strategies poll taken 9/21-24/06 (RV) finds approval at 40%, disapproval at 50%. The Democracy Corps (Greenberg) poll of 9/17-19/06 (LV) has approval at 44, disapproval at 52. And the CNN/ORC poll from 9/22-24/06 (A) reads 42% approve and 55% disapprove. (RV, LV and A are the populations sampled: Registered or Likely voters, and Adults, respectively.)

These results neatly bracket the trend line, which now stands at 41.8% approval. We continue to see the usual variability across polls, but the upward trend has been consistent across a substantial number of polls since mid-August when the current upturn began. So far there is no indication that the rate of increase has changed, and that rate is sharper than either of the two previous rallies since January 2005, having risen some 5 points in 5 weeks.

The question everyone wants answered is what effect will this have on the House and Senate races. So far, not much. The House generic ballot initially moved 2 points in a Republican direction, but has now stabilized. [..] In the individual Senate races, the trend has, if anything, favored the Democrats slightly over the most recent polling. [..] The approval rating remains quite low for a president at midterm, so the upward trend, while strong, may not in fact signal much positive influence of the improved Bush ratings for Republican congressional candidates. At best, they may reduce the weight of the anchor those ratings were previously. On the other hand, if approval continues up at its current pace, and if we assume it is higher in the most critical swing districts than it is nationally, then by election day presidential approval could have become a positive asset for Republicans in the most crucial races. (Note the two "ifs" in that last sentence.)

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Bush Approval: Thee polls agree on 42%



Three new polls all tell the same story today. Approval of President Bush stands at 42% in new Fox, Hotline and Zogby polls. And the current trend estimate is now 42.2% to boot.

The Fox poll was completed 9/26-27/06 among 900 likely voters, finding 54% disapproval. The Diageo/Hotline poll was done 9/24-26/06 interviewed 800 registered voters, and got disapproval at 56%. The Reuters/Zogby telephone (not internet) poll was done 9/22-25/06 among 1000 likely voters, and has 58% disapproval. All three polls also show increases over the past two or three polls. [..]

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Bush Approval: NBC/WSJ and CNN at 39%



Two new polls find approval of President Bush has fallen after a week of mostly bad news. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, taken 9/30-10/2/06 finds approval at 39% and disapproval at 56%. The CNN/ORC poll conducted 9/29-10/2/06 also puts approval at 39%, with disapproval at 59%. Both polls had registered approval at 42% in their previous readings. These polls come after a week that included debate over a new National Intelligence Estimate's conclusions on terrorism and Iraq, Bob Woodward's new book, and culminating with revelations of Rep. Mark Foley's email contacts with congressional pages. The polling was completed before the Washington Times called for House Speaker Dennis Hastert's resignation as speaker.

The new data do not yet lead to a major change in my approval trend estimate. That currently stands at 41.4%. That's a revision down from 42.0%, but the trend has not yet turned clearly down. The trend line is deliberately conservative, and usually requires 6-12 polls before considering a change of direction reliable. The three point drop in two polls, however, does suggest that President Bush may have suffered a significant reversal over the past week, after some 6 weeks of strong upward movement in approval. It is likely that more new polling will arrive soon, helping clarify how much of this move is a "blip" and how much a harbinger of a change in direction.

From what I read most Repubs will not be affected by the Foley issue. Even those who accepted money from Foley's PAC (and quickly donated it to charity when the issue exploded) seem to be unaffected.

I just don't see that large a percentage switching their votes from one party to another based on the Foley issue.

The danger, or a danger of more consequence, is the number of voters who will become so disgusted with the quality of our legislators that they will stop participating. I don't know who that "helps" in the short-term.

change its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. [..]

The state has two ballot initiatives, including one that would implement a minimum wage increase and another to allow scientists in the state to conduct any form of stem cell research permitted under federal law and to ensure Missouri patients access to any cures and therapies that might result from such research.

A minimum wage increase could give McCaskill an edge by driving Democrats to the polls, especially since Talent is against the initiative [..] The stem-cell issue's impact on the Senate contest is harder to fathom. Most voters have told pollsters that they support stem cell research [..]. This would seem especially dicey for Talent, who, like many fellow social conservatives, opposes research on stem cells extracted from human embryos because he believes this destroys life. But conservative activists who oppose the procedure are seen as highly motivated and could turn out heavily at the polls, thus benefiting Talent. [..]

Talent's campaign has focused on presenting himself to Missourians as independent from Bush. Talent's ads against McCaskill have focused on a negative depiction of her performance as state auditor. Talent's campaign has also used its ads to try to brand McCaskill as too liberal a Democrat to represent Missouri. [..]

McCaskill's ads have mainly focused on her endorsements from police officials and a record as auditor that she portrays as tough-on-bad-guys, Robertson said. The challenger's anti-Talent ads focus onto tying him to Bush

Musgrave's Priorities at Issue in Increasingly Close Colo. 4 Race

Sep. 28, 2006

Colorado's 4th Congressional District has been Republican "red" for decades. But continued debate over Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's staunch social-issues conservatism, and the emergence of Democratic state Rep. Angie Paccione as a solid challenger, have prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating on this year's 4th District contest to Leans Republican from Republican Favoredsame-sex marriageimmigration Bush kissing Musgrave on the forehead, with Paccione saying in a voice-over that "what this administration and what this Congress has done is really sold out to the special interests."

The November ballot also will include Reform Party nominee Eric Eidsness, a former Republican who served as the Environmental Protection Agency's assistant administrator for water during the administration of President Ronald Reagan. His priorities include developing a strategy for more water storage; opposing the Bush administration's policies on Iraq; supporting a balanced budget amendment and a presidential line-item veto; and curtailing or eliminating so-called appropriations "earmarks."

Paccione's campaign is hopeful that Eidsness will drain votes from Musgrave. But Short said that Musgrave's internal polling shows that Eidsness is pulling significantly more support from Paccione than he is from the congresswoman.

Colorado Roundup: 5th District No Longer Safe for GOP

Oct. 02, 2006

Several House districts that usually are Republican strongholds are unexpectedly subject to serious Democratic Party challenges this year. Most of these involve a political or personal scandal involving the Republican incumbent.

That, however, is not the GOP's problem in the contest in Colorado's 5th District, on which CQPolitics.com has changed its ratings to Republican Favored from Safe Republicanwake of the primary. Lamborn's campaign so angered Hefley that he has refused to endorse the nominee, and was even reported to have briefly considered backing Democratic nominee Jay Fawcett, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who served in the 1990-91 Iraq war. [..]

Foley to an underage male congressional page have drawn him deeply into the controversy, and may well damage his chances of winning a fifth House term on Nov. 7.

CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on Reynolds' race against Democratic businessman Jack Davis to Leans Republican from Safe Republican.free-trade pacts

Democrat Mahoney Has the Edge in Race for Seat Foley Vacated

Tue Oct 3

What until last Friday appeared a safely Republican seat in Florida's 16th District is now anything but, in the wake of the resignation of six-term Republican Rep. Mark Foley CQPolitics.com, which on Friday changed its rating on the Florida 16 race to No Clear Favorite from Safe Republican, now rates the race as Leans Democratic.

Feder's Success a Sign of Dems' Improving Odds in Va. 10changed its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Wolf remains very likely to retain his seat. He retains his traditional advantages, including a seat on the influential Appropriations Committee that enables him to deliver federal dollars for 10th District projects. [..]

But Mark J. Rozell, a professor at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., said one factor that may give Democrats hope is that Northern Virginia is in transition. Since the 1990s, new residents, including a substantial number of immigrants, have poured into the district, which runs across Northern Virginia from the increasingly congested Washington, D.C., suburbs of Fairfax and Loudoun counties to the state's rural border with West Virginia. [..]

Feder, who is the dean of Georgetown University's Public Policy Institute and a former Clinton administration appointee, is the most credible challenger Wolf has faced in years, according to political science professor Ronald Rapoport [..]. He said, however, that Wolf's personal popularity and reputation for tending to his constituents' needs war in Iraq and high energy prices. To be competitive, however, Rozell said she will have to put the focus on local issues, such as traffic and growth.

If Feder is able to pull upwards of 45 percent, he said, it will be a boon for future Democratic races. But "as long as Wolf is there," Rozell added, "he's going to be a tough nut to crack."

Abramoff Allegations Make Brown a Legit Threat to Doolittlechange its rating on the 4th District race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Brown's campaign has largely focused on trying to tie Doolittle, and his past links to Abramoff, to a "culture of corruption

Shuler Survives Ad Barrage, Makes N.C. 11 Race as Tossuppersonal finances.

The latest independent poll on the race, however, raised questions about the success of the GOP strategy: A survey done for Reuters by the Zogby organization showed Shuler leading Taylor by 51 percent to 40 percent. Although Taylor maintains some key advantages that could ultimately enable him to hold on to the seat, Shuler's strength as a candidate has spurred CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

The Reuters/Zogby poll came after Shuler endured an ad barrage financed by independent expenditures from the GOP's House campaign wing, the National Republican Congressional Committee. The ad highlighted an Associated Press story that focused on $69,000 in late taxes incurred by Heath Shuler Real Estate company in Knoxville, Tenn. [..]

Shuler, for his part, introduced himself on the airwaves in an upbeat, issues-oriented advertisement his campaign calls "Heath positive." But over the past month, he too has gone negative against Taylor [..]. Most of Shuler's ads now feature a litany of reasons why Taylor has allegedly lost touch with his constituents. Among other charges, one ad accused Taylor of voting in favor of amnesty for illegal immigrants [..].

Shuler has also benefited from a series of automated phone calls from anti-Taylor interest groups that blame the incumbent for sending jobs overseas and supporting the 2003 Medicare prescription drug benefit law [..]. The most recent, accusing Taylor of weakness on port security issues, was funded by American Family Voices, an organization headed by Democratic consultant Mike Lux. [..]

Stender Has Shot at Beating Ferguson, Ending GOP Streak

Oct. 05, 2006

Republican strategists hoped that three-term GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson's strong 2004 showing in New Jersey's 7th District had answered the question of whether he is politically vulnerable. Despite the Democrats' efforts to promote their nominee, Marine Corps veteran Steve Brozak [..]Ferguson easily won by 57 percent to 42 percent.

Yet the district is still in play in the 2006 campaign, so much so that CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Leans Republican from Republican Favored.

The 7th District, located in the New York City suburbs, leans Republican but isn't a Party stronghold: District voters favored President Bush over Democrat John Kerry by a modest 53 percent to 46 percent, and that was before a series of problems sent the president's approval ratings plummeting.

Making this year's House race even more competitive is the fact that the Democrats are running a solid challenger in state Rep. Linda Stender, a deputy speaker of the state Assembly and former mayor of Fanwood. [..]

Stender has hammered Ferguson on everything from his support for the Iraq war to his staunch opposition to abortion. She is aiming to persuade voters in this potential swing district that Ferguson is tied too closely to Bush and the Republican leadership in Congress.

Ferguson's House voting record provides the challenger with some ammunition. A CQ "presidential support" study showed Ferguson sided with Bush on 87 percent of House votes in 2005 on which the president took a position, 6 percentage points above the average for all House Republicans and the highest score in the New Jersey delegation. [..]

But Ferguson has rejected Stender's contention that he is an automatic vote for the Republican leadership, pointing to votes he has cast against oil drilling in the Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and a repeal of workplace ergonomic regulations instituted by the administration of President Bill Clinton. [..]

Ferguson also enjoys two structural advantages that help him maintain an edge in the race.

One is that the district's Republican roots are strong. Ferguson won in 2000 to succeed Republican Bob Franks (1993-2001), who had left the seat for a Senate bid that failed. For two decades previously, most of the area in the current 7th was represented by Rep. Matthew J. Rinaldo, a Republican who often allied with organized labor.

The other big strength for Ferguson was a major head start on fundraising. It is not that Stender is short-changed: At mid-year, she reported $900,000 in campaign receipts [..]; that made Stender one of the leading fundraisers among House challengers. But Ferguson at that point had more than twice as much: a little more than $2 million. [..]

Clout, Seniority Not Enough to Give Shaw an Edge in Fla. 22

Oct. 05, 2006

[..] Republican Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr., in his bid for a 14th term [in Florida's 22nd District], drew a strong opponent in Democratic state Sen. Ron Klein in a south Florida district where Democrat John Kerry narrowly edged President Bush in 2004.

With Klein appearing to run step for step with Shaw, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans RepublicanFoley. [..]

"We've been pushing a very strong, solid, consistent message, of Mr. Shaw being essentially a rubber stamp for George Bush, not standing up to him on the war [in Iraq] and various other things," Klein campaign manager Brian Smoot told CQPolitics.com [..].

Republicans point out that Shaw has weathered difficult re-elections in the past, including his 2000 race against Democratic state Rep. Elaine Bloom, whom Shaw beat by just 600 votes. They also note that [after 2000, a] Republican-drawn redistricting plan added some Republican voters and shifted some Democrats to other districts. [..]

Republican officials' actions suggest they are aware that Shaw's seat is at risk this year. The national Republican Party, in September alone, spent $526,000 on independent expenditures aimed at helping Shaw secure victory. That made Shaw one of the top 10 beneficiaries of GOP independent expenditures [..].

Shaw's role as the former chairman of the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security gave Shaw oversight of issues affecting his constituents, more than 20 percent of whom are 65 or older.

But Democrats are hammering at the fact that Shaw is a vocal supporter of Bush's poorly received proposal to establish an individual investment accounts program with Social SecurityMedicare prescription drug benefit bill, which critics describe as chintzy to beneficiaries and too generous to pharmaceutical companies.

Klein held a campaign event at a doughnut shop last month to emphasize the fact that many seniors covered by the program, known as Medicare Part D, are reaching the "doughnut hole" in their coverage. That term describes the provision in the law that requires some beneficiaries to pay costs out of pocket when their drug costs total between $2,251 to $5,100. [..]

Democrats have also pushed the war in Iraq as another campaign issue, and Klein launched a commercial that quotes Shaw saying, "The war is over. We won the war."

The ad drew strong criticism from the Shaw campaign [which] said the quote is a misrepresentation and provided his full comment [..]: "We won the war, because we were fighting the government. But now we're fighting a faceless enemy."

I just don't see that large a percentage switching their votes from one party to another based on the Foley issue. There are too many others to be passionate about on one side or the other: Iraq, immigration and on and on.

the newest AP/Ipsos poll also showed that half of likely voters say the Foley scandal will be "very or extremely important" when it comes time to vote on Nov. 7.

Comcast pulls contested ad

A House candidate says the GOP falsely said she opposed a bill to provide body armor to troops.

Comcast Corp. pulled a cable-television advertisement Sunday that Democratic congressional candidate Lois Murphy claimed was false and misleading.

The ad, prepared by the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that Murphy opposed a bill that would provide body armor to troops in Iraq.

"Hard to believe," the announcer said, as "Source: Vote 669, 12/19/2005" appeared on the screen.

Murphy, who is challenging U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R., Pa.) in the Sixth Congressional District, could not have participated in the vote since she doesn't hold office, and has stated she supports funding for body armor, said James Lamb, her attorney in Washington.

Comcast spokeswoman Dana Runnells said it pulled the ad "for further review." [..]

Ed Patru, a spokesman for the NRCC, defended the ad. Murphy criticized the bill the House voted on that day, he said. "I have a press release."

The House on Dec. 19 passed a defense appropriations bill with a rider attached to it that would have opened drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve.

After a filibuster in the Senate stalled a similar pairing, the defense bill was passed without the Arctic drilling provision.

Murphy in a news release admonished Gerlach for betraying "his promise to protect the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge."

In letters to Comcast, Lamb complained that the ad ignored statements and news releases in which Murphy said "no American soldier should be sent to war without adequate body armor."

Patru said Murphy's opposition to the drilling provision meant that she opposed the defense appropriation. "You don't get to pick or choose the provisions" attached to bills, he said.

The NRCC paid $63,000 for cable time through Saturday in the Sixth District, which stretches from Chester County north past Reading.

Patru said the NRCC wouldn't ask Comcast to reconsider.

In Tennessee, Ford Surges Ahead

October 02, 2006

Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) continues to garner momentum and has surged into the lead in Tennessee's U.S. Senate race, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey. Ford currently leads Bob Corker (R) 48% to 43%, a six-point bump since early September. Over the past three months, Ford has gained an astonishing 17 net points in the polls.

Key statistic: "Ford has an edge with unaffiliated voters and leads by a whopping 70% to 23% among moderates."

In PA-10, Sherwood Faces Possible Defeat

October 03, 2006

In Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district, a new Lycoming College poll shows Chris Carney (D) leading Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA) 46.7% to 38.2%.

"The only other independent, non-partisan poll of the race, taken in late August, showed Carney ahead by seven points."

Though Sherwood is the congressman who was accused of choking his girlfriend -- and later apologized to his wife and family -- President Bush will be campaigning for him later this month.

Election Scorecard / Oct. 3, 2006

Yes, VirginiaTennessee leave the Ford-Corker contest looking like a tossup as much as ever. The surveys from Middle Tennessee State University has Republican Bob Corker running one point ahead of Democrat Harold Ford, while new polls from Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen have Ford ahead by one and five points, respectively. The last five polls give Ford an average lead of just under three points (45.2 percent to 42.4 percent) and show no meaningful momentum toward either candidate.

The new Mason-Dixon survey in New Jersey has Democrat Bob Menendez up by three percentage points over Republican Tom Kean Jr. (44 percent to 41 percent). New Jersey remains a tossup, but this new, favorable result for Menendez shifts the momentum meter from Republican to neutral.

Similarly, new polls from Mason-Dixon show razor-thin margins in Missouri and Rhode Island that reaffirm the status of both states as tossups, while moving the momentum arrow in each state from Democrat back to neutral.

Spending Statistics Reflect House GOP's Defensive PostureMore details..

NRCC Spends Nearly $8 Million in One Day on Tight Races

Anti-GOP Mood Gives Dems Clear Lead in Minn. Senate Race

Oct. 06, 2006

Early in the midterm election cycle, Republicans thought three-term Rep. Mark Kennedy was the perfect candidate to run for the Minnesota Senate seat left open by retiring one-term Democrat Mark Dayton. Kennedy represents the 6th District, which cuts a swath from the Twin Cities suburbs to St. Cloud, and has steered money to his state as a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

But despite Kennedy's potential and an aggressive campaign, the GOP's hopes of capturing the seat appear increasingly undermined by the tough national political environment facing the Republican Party. CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favorite.

A variety of independent polls have shown the Democrats' strong nominee, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, with leads over Kennedy. The leads varied somewhat in size, but all were wide. [..]

Klobuchar also gained momentum in polls despite a long-running effort by Kennedy and other Republicans to downgrade the tough-on-crimeBush

Senate Race Summary for Oct. 6:

Rhode Island has gone blue. A new survey from USA Today/Gallup shows Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse leading incumbent Republican Lincoln Chafee by 11 points (50 percent to 39 percent). While Whitehouse's lead in the Gallup poll is much wider than recent polls from Reuters/Zogby (+4) and Mason-Dixon (+1), Whitehouse led (albeit by narrow margins) on every poll conducted since late August. His lead on our last-five-poll average (44.4 percent to 40.0 percent) is now large enough to classify Rhode Island as "lean Democrat."

So, the overall race for control of the Senate has narrowed from a four-seat Republican advantage (50 to 46) a month ago to just a single seat advantage. Right now, 49 seats are held by Republicans or at least lean that way, and 48 seats are held by or lean to Democrats. [..]

Some polls seem to show that the Foley scandal perhaps hasn't caused many voters to switch their votes. Instead, many social conservatives may simply stay home.

"There is no other way to look at these numbers except to say Tom Reynolds is in trouble," the Utica-based Zogby said...