Elections in Germany update:No turn to the right, after all!

28.06.2005

Germany Takes Shaky Route to Early Polls
The head of Germany's ruling Social Democrats has called on his party's members of parliament to abstain from the upcoming vote of confidence, that would ensure federal elections will be brought forward by a year.

The head of Germany's ruling Social Democrat Party (SPD) Franz Müntefering has asked his party's members of parliament to abstain in this Friday's vote of confidence in parliament, the first step towards dissolving the parliament and paving the way for early federal elections. This would demonstrate that the chancellor no longer has majority backing within his own coalition government.

Chancellor Gerhard Schröder himself had announced his desire for early elections after a landslide victory for the opposition Christian democrats in Germany's most populous federal state and long a SPD stronghold, North Rhine-Westphalia, last month. The humiliating defeat prompted the chancellor, by his own admission, to seek a new mandate for his government's unpopular economic reforms.

Although Müntefering will still have to persuade parliamentarians to abstain, it looks almost certain that this will be the way the ruling Social Democrats will comply with the chancellor's wish to have early elections on September 18 this year.

Abstaining is the best solution

An earlier suggestion according to which Social Democrat cabinet ministers would have had to abstain from voting has meanwhile been thrown overboard. That solution would have come across as too much of a political farce
However, Müntefering's proposal could also appear ridiculous, if implemented, with the ruling coalition likely to push through a series of bills on Thursday with a stable majority. But senior SPD member Gernot Erler defended the plan.

"If some 200 MPs from the SPD abstain from the vote, it should be easier for the federal president to see that early elections are supported by a strong majority," said Erler. "This move would not be as tricky as forcing a couple of Social Democrat cabinet members to abstain. So, I think this is the best solution to pave the way for dissolving parliament."

Will the Greens play the game?

German president Horst Köhler will have to give the go-ahead for dissolving parliament, should the chancellor lose the vote of confidence as planned. The SPD's junior coalition partner, the ecologist Greens, haven't decided yet whether they're willing to play along.

"The idea of having early elections wasn't ours to start with," said Claudia Roth, the Greens' party co-leader. "But since this is the wish of the chancellor, we'll try and not stand in the way, also considering the strong wish for early elections among the population."

According to Roth, the Greens MPs may also abstain from voting. But it was still too early to say what they will actually do.

"It's been common practice in our party to first debate things thoroughly within our parliamentary group," said Roth.

An artificial confidence vote?

Uncertainties will remain on the bumpy road to early elections. Even if President Köhler agrees to dissolve parliament, the Social Democrats may trip over the legal aspects of their political gamble. Müntefering's proposal may raise the eyebrows of judges at the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe.

Some smaller parties, which are not represented in the federal parliament, have already announced they plan to take the matter before the Karlsruhe court. They don't believe it's legitimate to bring about an artificial vote of confidence and rig its outcome in advance, while at the same the ruling government adopts bills with a stable majority of its own. But the SPD's Erler doesn't accept such arguments.

"We're confident that with our planned procedure, the likelihood of early elections being accepted by the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will increase," said Erler. "Certainly, the option of having a couple of cabinet ministers demonstrate they don't support the chancellor anymore isn't very convincing, considering that they've worked closely with Schröder day in day out."

Hardy Graupner (sac)

Because of Lafontaine's one remark, two weeks ago, that "The state is obliged to prevent that family fathers and women become unemployed, because foreign workers take away their work places for low wages."

This is apparently considered a near-illegal remark to make in Germany. (Though admittedly, Lafontaine complicated things by using a controversial word for "foreign workers" ("Fremdarbeiter") that some associate with the Nazi era.)

Lafontaine himself claims he was just talking about - well, foreign workers working for low wages - in developing countries as well as here - which means employment insecurity for German workers (including Turkish-Germans, etc) here.

Pretty much standard fare for some politician or other to say in most other European countries.

I find this bizarre. I mean, the reaction. The Greens and SPD have been hitting him on that one word for two weeks now. The Germans are obviously still stuck where we were in the 90s: "no, you cant possibly even mention that, just dont speak about it, dont anyone say anything about it, if we all just act like there arent people grumpy about this issue, then perhaps it will just disappear.

[..] the Labour Party was beaten badly in the referendum about the European Constitution. Especially the lower-educated part of the Labour Party's electorate voted "no" in overwhelming majority. That demonstrated the Labour Party's vulnerability to inroads by the Socialist Party, the 'winner' of the referendum. [..]

In a surprising analysis in Socialism & Democracy, Paul Kalma relativates the necessity of saving the lower classes for social-democracy. It's true his article is about the competition the SPD is now expecting in Germany from a new 'left-populist' formation, which the radical ex-minister of Finances Oskar Lafontaine allied himself with recently. But the parallel with Holland is all too clear.

Following the German politicologist Franz Walter, Kalma observes that West-European social-democracy is losing the support of the lower classes to right-wing populist parties. The message and style of a party like the SPD no longer appeal to socio-economically ill-faring voters. That's the bad news. The good news is that left-populist parties, with their more common-folk approach, can reach those politically homeless left-wing voters. Leftist populists prevent the right-wing, 'bourgeois' camp from incorporating the vote of the lower classes.

Translated into the Dutch situation: better Marijnissen (of the Socialist Party) than Fortuyn, rather a left-wing than a right-wing populist. Better, too, diversity and mutual debate in the Left than a forced striving for unity. Labour, Green Left and Socialists are not each others opposites, but in principle complement each other nicely. If each of them cares for a part of the left-wing voters, they will all in all increase the left-wing vote. [..]

[But] The programmatic and strategic dilemmas Wouter Bos now faces turn out to be immense. What voters does he target, what coalition does he strive for, with what programme? His own populism thus far has mostly remained stylistic.

Only reluctantly does he approach what a really populist programme would entail: preservation of the welfare state and rejection of multiculturalism (including a restriction of immigration). Almost three-quarters of all voters has a preference for this combination, but there is no party that offers it - not even the Socialist Party. That party stands for the 'peace of mind of the welfare state', it's true, but has gone soft on the count of immigration. As of yet, the left-populist party Walter and Kalma envision is not there yet.

German leftists become east's leading party

By Tony Paterson in Berlin
Published: 30 July 2005

A new radical German leftwing party has alarmed its mainstream rivals by becoming the strongest political force in the unemployment-blighted east, only weeks after being officially launched in time for September's general election.

The Linkspartei, or Left Party, was inaugurated in mid-July, but an opinion poll yesterday showed that in the former East Germany the organisation had already outstripped Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's ruling Social Democrats and the opposition conservatives.

The poll, published by the Leipziger Volkszeitung newspaper, suggested that the Linkspartei would win 33 per cent of the vote in the east compared to 27 per cent each for the SPD and the conservative Christian democrats headed by Angela Merkel, who remains the favourite to win in September.

The Linkspartei, which came into being earlier this year, is a merger between the successor organisation to the former East German Communist Party and renegade former Social Democrats who recently left Mr Schröder's party in protest against its economic reform programme.

Its election campaign front-runners are the former finance minister "Red" Oskar Lafontaine and Gregor Gysi, a leading member of the former reform Communist Party for Democratic Socialism.

Both men enjoy huge popularity in eastern Germany, where they are viewed as champions of the region's 20 per cent unemployed. They favour a return to "social justice" through higher wages for workers and higher taxes for the rich.

The sudden success of the Linkspartei is causing concern to conservatives and Social Democrats. Officials in Mrs Merkel's party have called for a new political offensive which will underline the conservative leader's East German roots. Mr Schröder has reacted by publicly castigating the new Linkspartei and Mr Lafontaine for his use of far right language at campaign rallies. He has categorically ruled out any future alliance with the organisation.

But the party has already managed to add a new element of unpredictability to the German election. There are fears that if the Linkspartei continues to make such gains, neither of Germany's main parties will win enough votes to secure a comfortable majority.

The upshot could be a coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats. Yesterday's poll suggested only 30 per cent of Germans favoured such an outcome.

A new radical German leftwing party has alarmed its mainstream rivals by becoming the strongest political force in the unemployment-blighted east, only weeks after being officially launched in time for September's general election.

The Linkspartei, or Left Party, was inaugurated in mid-July, but an opinion poll yesterday showed that in the former East Germany the organisation had already outstripped Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's ruling Social Democrats and the opposition conservatives.

The poll, published by the Leipziger Volkszeitung newspaper, suggested that the Linkspartei would win 33 per cent of the vote in the east compared to 27 per cent each for the SPD and the conservative Christian democrats headed by Angela Merkel, who remains the favourite to win in September.

The Linkspartei, which came into being earlier this year, is a merger between the successor organisation to the former East German Communist Party and renegade former Social Democrats who recently left Mr Schröder's party in protest against its economic reform programme.

Its election campaign front-runners are the former finance minister "Red" Oskar Lafontaine and Gregor Gysi, a leading member of the former reform Communist Party for Democratic Socialism.
Both men enjoy huge popularity in eastern Germany, where they are viewed as champions of the region's 20 per cent unemployed. They favour a return to "social justice" through higher wages for workers and higher taxes for the rich.

The sudden success of the Linkspartei is causing concern to conservatives and Social Democrats. Officials in Mrs Merkel's party have called for a new political offensive which will underline the conservative leader's East German roots. Mr Schröder has reacted by publicly castigating the new Linkspartei and Mr Lafontaine for his use of far right language at campaign rallies. He has categorically ruled out any future alliance with the organisation.

But the party has already managed to add a new element of unpredictability to the German election. There are fears that if the Linkspartei continues to make such gains, neither of Germany's main parties will win enough votes to secure a comfortable majority.

The upshot could be a coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats. Yesterday's poll suggested only 30 per cent of Germans favoured such an outcome.