Elections in Germany update:No turn to the right, after all!

these are the election results from the german newspaper "die welt" at 2:02 monday morning.
the participation rate was 77 % (79.1 previous election).
the first set of % numbers refer to the current election, the second set to the previous election.

abgegebene Stimmen 77,7 (79,1) - 1,4
SPD 34,3 (38,5) - 4,2
CDU 27,8 (29,5) - 1,7
CSU 7,4 ( 9,0) - 1,6
Grüne 8,1 ( 8,6) - 0,5
FDP 9,8 ( 7,4) + 2,4
Linkspartei 8,7 ( 4,0) + 4,7
NPD 1,6 ( 0,4) + 1,2

since CDU/CSU form a voting block, they have garnered 35.2 % of the votes.
biggest increase is shown for the "linkspartei" (the LEFT) which more than doubled their votes from 4 to 8.7 %.


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erschienen am 19.09.2005 um 02:02 Uhr
© WELT.de

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i hope walter sleeps well ! hbg

<sighs with relief>

How important was the debate?

How important was the CDU/CSU leader in Bavaria's phrase about East Germans?

I do hope Shroeder can gather a majority in the Bundestag,

<sighs with relief again... takes hat off>

The reuslts, with the number of seats (which all can slightly alter, since in 14 days, a Dresden constituiency still has to vote):

CDU/CSU: 35.2% (225 seats)
SPD: 34.3% (222)
Free Democrats: 9.8% (61)
Left Party: 8.7% (54)
Greens: 8.1% (51)

Intererestingly, in my CDU-governed state, the SPD is again the strongest political party (40 vs 34 for the CDU).

Similar results in New Zealand, after fears that the right would take control.


If anyone cares...........

oh dear a genuinely bad result for Germany. Tony Blair will be pleased. (Not that hes got anything against Germany of course).

How many seats are still up for grabs in Dresden? Are they likely to go SPD or CDU/CSU.

Has there ever been such a close result in modern German history?

In absence of Walter's and Thomas's take, I dont think so...

I'm sure that especially in the SPD, the realisation that Red-Green would no longer get a majority had long sunk in already, and that extensive parts of the party, its rightwing most enthusiastically, were getting ready for a coalition government with the CDU, under Merkel. I dont think the prospect had quite been accepted by many in the CDU, but when the proposed right-wing coalition's numbers started dropping the last few weeks they must at least have pondered the possibility. (There were incidental expressions of such).

But the scenario they all must have pondered was one in which the SPD would lose significantly, if too little to allow the right-wing parties a majority, and in which Merkel would win the elections with the predicted 40+% of the vote. In that scenario, Schroeder would retire with dignity, but without hesitation, and the SPD, resigning itself to having come in a clear second, would soon enough come to grips with the reality of being a junior coalition government party.

This, however, is totally different. Merkel's CDU/CSU did so badly, that the SPD is now less than 1 percentage point behind it. And the fact that the SPD came so close, and the CDU/CSU did so badly, had everything to do with the leaders; with the polls that throughout showed the Germans would much rather have a Chancellor Schroeder than a Chancellor Merkel. The SPD campaign totally focused on the person of Schroeder, and he almost 'won'! That means its hard to imagine Schroeder just smoothly sliding off into retirement, a point highlighted in the extreme by his boisterous claims to the Chancellorship in the post-results TV debate. The SPD is also hardly likely now to easily settle into mere junior partnership. On the other hand, it's near-unthinkable to see Schroeder continuing as Chancellor with Merkel as junior partner; perhaps the CDU would first need to get rid of her (but that would unleash a potentially devastating intra-party struggle).

So no, I dont think they quite prepared for this particular situation...

By the way, you should look at elections in Holland some time. In Germany they've got five parties in parliament now, six if you count CDU/CSU as two separate ones. We have nine, and perhaps come next elections 11... ;-)

The comparison is interesting, by the way. These latest elections (entry of the Leftists, losses for Socialdemocrats and Christian-Democrats, gains for the right-wing liberals) have made German politics look more like Holland than ever before. Check out this comparison between the German results and current Dutch polls:

I doubt that: it would have been EU-wise certainly much easier for him with a (strong) German conservative government

One constituency = one seat. However, it may change the all-over-result and the so-called 'Überhangmandate" (explanation about that here).

No idea really, where this eat (directly voted) will go - I wonder, if polls will get that :wink:

No, I can't remember about a similar result.

thanks for explanation(s) Walter. From your link:-

"This means that a party with overhang seats has more seats than its entitlement, while other parties are no different. It requires that the total number of seats increase, as the overhang seats are effectively "extra". This system is used in the German Bundestag"

So if SPD win Dresden they get 223 seats. I understand how that affect the over all result, but how could if affect the Uberhangmandate?

Do the number of seats/percentage vote indicate that SPD or CDU/CSU have Uberhangmandate? Sorry if this is too complicated to explain in English!

Well, it's seems to be even more complicated in German - there's no really correct translation on the web :wink:

41.226 votes (as 'second vote) for the CDU in Dresden would give them the loss of one Überhangmandat - so they should fear a really good result.

In 2002 the CDU won the seat directly with 33,8% (vs. 31,3% for the SPD candidate, 20,9% for the PDS).
The second votes were SPD (32,9 %), CDU (30,5 %), PDS (17,7 %), Grenns (7,9 %) and FDP (7,0 %).

Very important, I think. Thats when the turn in public opinion suddenly became very pronounced.

The debate was on Sep 4. Here's the poll numbers of the SPD for: the last poll before the debate; the first poll after the debate; the final poll out; and the end result.




Dunno, but perhaps we can look at how the CDU/CSU did in West-Germany versus the former GDR:



Well, the CDU does a lot worse in the East than in the West, but that's no news; its losses there, on the other hand, seem to be only marginally larger than those in the West, overall.

The most striking number is the loss Stoiber suffered in his own state, but that's unlikely to be because of his putdowns of East-Germans. Half of the votes his CSU lost went to the FDP, which isnt normally so strong in Bavaria. It is normal, I suppose, for the Bavarians to be less enthusiastic about voting for their own conservatives now that it isn't their own Stoiber who is standing for Chancellor, but a Northern woman.

In fact, what strikes me is that the pattern of CDU/CSU losses suggests, if anything, a clear North/South divide, rather than an East/West one. Could it be because Merkel is from Brandenburg, in the North? Or because she is Protestant? Or ... because she's a woman? Did Catholic Christian-Democrats feel more uneasy with that than Protestant ones?

[edited coupla times to make the [code] bits fit on single lines]

Oh my God its even more complicated that I thought.

So if CDU get a large number of second preference votes in Dresden that increases the number of seats overall they are entitled to from the percentage of the vote, but because they already have more than that through Uberhangmandat, they effectively win nothing extra?

.....going to lie down now

Well, not really nothing: they got their seats already - 'proportionally directly' :wink:


Comparison of the German to the UK (Scottisch) PR Electoral system

Yay! I dont know anything about New Zealand politics, but I'd been keeping my eye on the the polls through the RSS feed from ARC Polls ... they shifted between a neck-and-neck race and a National victory of moderate size ... so I'm glad to hear Labour eeked out in front, after all ;-).

But I suppose it will all come down to the support of the tiniest parties now? Looks like a hell of a job to create a coalition government there, too.

Looks like New Zealand has a similar kind of mixed electoral system as Germany by the way, how does it work?


Well, there was last time .. ;-)

2005:
CDU/CSU + FDP: 45,0%
SPD + Greens: 42,4% + Leftists: 51,1%

CDU/CSU + FDP: 286 seats
SPD + Greens: 273 + Leftists: 327

2002:
CDU/CSU + FDP: 45,9%
SPD + Greens: 47,1% (+ PDS: 51,1%)

CDU/CSU + FDP: 295 seats
SPD + Greens: 306 + PDS: 308

You are certainly correct, nimh, but besides the "Great Coaliton" of Kiesinger and Brandt (1966-1969) there had never been a similar situation (and none directly after the elections).

On state level, we have Great Coalitions in Brandenburg, Bremen, Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein between the CDU and the SPD.

On tonight's news, it had Helen Clark, NZ Prime Minister, filing into meetings with the Maori Party, with whom she was at loggerheads, previously. The Nats were due to attack Maori privileges and the structure that has built up round them over the years, based on the Treaty of Waitangi...eg they have seven Maori seats.


I guess they feel Helen is way better!






http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/


I think it works with proportional representation, so a coalition will be the go again.




New Zealand election loser to run naked through streets

posted by: Dan Viens Web Producer

Created: 9/19/2005 6:39 AM MDT - Updated: 9/19/2005 6:39 AM MDT

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) - A lawmaker in New Zealand says he'll fulfill a campaign promise to streak through a rich suburb.

The Green Party lawmaker promised the naked run if a rival party leader was re-elected.

After the rightist candidate won, Keith Locke says he doesn't want to break an election promise.

He says no date has been set and he promises to be artistic, saying "it will involve body paint."

A local business group says to prepare for the run it "will warn the faint-hearted" and ensure there's a loincloth on hand.


Heehee





NZ Electoral System:

http://www.nzgovtdirectory.com/directory/section3/elect_sys.htm



The New Zealand Electoral System
The MMP System

The 2002 general election was the third Parliamentary election to use the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system that was adopted by referendum in 1993. It resulted in the election of 69 electorate MPs - 62 in General seats and 7 in Mäori seats - as well as 51 list MPs.

New Zealand's first Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) election was held in October 1996. It resulted in the return of 65 electorate MPs - 60 General and five Mäori - and 55 list MPs. As a result of population growth and movement there were two extra electorates in the 1999 election - giving a total of 61 General and six Mäori. The number of list MPs elected fell by the same amount, giving 53 list members in the post-election Parliament.

How MMP Works

Under the MMP system, MPs are elected in two ways, by electorate - General and Mäori - and by lists nominated by registered political parties. Each registered elector has two votes - one for their electorate MP and one for a party list. Each registered party's total share of Party Votes decides its share of the 120 Parliamentary seats. For instance, if a party receives 55 percent of the Party Vote, it is entitled to hold 55 percent of the seats in the unicameral House of Representatives. The MPs who will hold these seats will be the electorate MPs who have been elected for that party in their local electorates, plus the number from the party list necessary to bring the total to 55 percent. It is possible, however, to be defeated as an electoral candidate but be elected via the list. This has happened to a number of candidates at the last three general elections.

A party may win more electorate seats than the total number to which it is entitled, based on its share of the Party Votes. In this case it will keep its 'overhang' seats and more than 120 MPs will be elected.

It is also possible for less than 120 MPs to be elected, which would happen if a party nominated fewer list candidates than the number of seats it was entitled to. If this happened, the seats would remain unfilled.

Parties must win at least 5 percent of the nation-wide Party Vote or at least one electorate seat to qualify to take seats in Parliament.
Filling Vacant Seats

If an electorate MP resigns or dies, a by-election is held within 78 days, but if a general election is due within six months, Parliament can decide not to fill the vacancy if 75 percent of all MPs agree.

When a list MP resigns or dies, the next available candidate on the party list of the MP in question is appointed. If this candidate and subsequent list candidates are not willing to fill the vacancy it will stay vacant.

List and electorate MPs have the same rights, privileges and Parliamentary responsibilities. The Parliamentary Service Commission provides each electorate MP with an electorate office and back-up assistance. It provides list MPs with a staff member outside Wellington and pays some office expenses..........

Steve....don't lie down, you're missing all the fun.....

http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1576529&highlight=#1576529

... in NZ.
Ours is 50 years longer in use*, and the Kiwis adopted it, with some changes.

* in modern times, since we had had this system already during the Weimar Republic since 1919.

Perhaps either Merkel or Schroeder could do a deal with the Maori Partei.