Elections in Germany update:No turn to the right, after all!

<listening>

6pm from ZDF

<logs in to internet>

<on his way to his email>

<eye drops on yahoo headline>

<excited, looks in to exit poll results>

<INCREDULOUS>

<huge big grin>

THIRTY-six percent for the CDU/CSU? I mean, thirty-SIX??

35.5% is what I heard

I know, I know - Stoiber sure regretted cheering too early four years ago - but I cant help grinning right now.

And yes I know, even if it remains like this it'll only mean we'll get a Grand Coalition, which will be like Agenda 2010-Plus, which is hardly something to cheer about. But still - considering expectations - and considering the alternative (Frau Merkel with her Kirchhof flat-taxers enjoying a majority in Bundestag and Bundesrat for a full speed ahead on Thatcherite "reforms"), this is about as good as it gets, no?

Leftwing parties: 49,9%
Rightwing parties: 46,3%

Hope this will hold as the results come in.

If it stays like this:
- The SPD has saved face, which is good, but nothing more than that, which serves it right
- The Greens do almost as good as last time, which noone really would have expected anymore
- The Leftists unfortunately fail to become the third party - they'll only be the fifth, in fact - but still, with 8% of the vote they did respectable, still twice as much as the old PDS did last time
- The FDP scores a shocker Zweitstimmen victory, which must come totally unepected. OK, can live with that, especially as it'll sow chaotic debate in the CDU/CSU.

Who'll be Chancellor, really, if this actually turns out to be the end result? Not Schroeder obviously, he's governed out and his party lost. But Frau Merkel sure suddenly doesn't look much like a winner anymore, now that polls that had predicted 40+% throughout might turn, at just 36%, into an actual loss of votes compared to three years ago, does she?!

So, compared to three years ago, the Christian-Democrats lose 3% to the Free Democrats, and the Socialdemocrats lose 5% to the Leftists.

Hey, I can live with that, in terms of how the political landscape's changing :wink:

"we'll get a grand coalition"?

thought you were Netherlander/Hungarian

surely elections in Germany of no real importance to you nimh?

Hehheh, busted ;-)

I saw that too, but I thought it was petty to go back and edit.

Les' just say that I have more affinity with German elections than with those in most Eu countries.. its more like home.

Interesting

I shouldn't think (sad to say) that more than one in 100 Brits knows there is an election in Germany today.

But then we are proud of our indifference to democracy.

Anything to make you smile, nimh.

[sigh]

Hi Thomas, how does it look to you?

Awful. At the least, I had been hoping that a) the country would be governable, and b) would not require a cartel of the two big parties to be governable. This is not going to happen.

Good piece on Merkel in this week's New Yorker, but I can't get a link for it yet. (I know you all know much more about her than I do.)

so its the grand coalition? i.e. no strong government at all?

I suppose, a grand coalition - but it's still possible to get a left-left-green goverment .... without Schröder.

Personally, I had a really great day: in a voting ditrict with normally 70% for the conservatives, they went down 60+%. (The SPD lost as well, but not so much - the Left got really many votes.)

We elected our mayor today, as well: 50.7% for the conservative vs. 49.3% for the Socialdemocrat candidate at the moment (still more than 10% of the votes to be counted) - a result, no-one ever had thought of (which leds to the fact that Mrs. Walter went for a drink or two with the conservatives after counting.)

50:50 now re mayor, 12 districts not noted (out of 55)

You're very kind, Thomas.

A grand coalition will in practice not be all that much different from what Schroeder turned the second Red-Green government in, I dont think, cant be all that much worse on social policy, especially now that the CDU/CSU would go into the government with such a weakened start-out position.

Plus, with the Leftists firmly settled on the government's left and the liberals resurgent on the government's right, there is a strongly profiled opposition in each direction. That is a reassurement not just because you need a strong opposition in a democracy, but also because it dissipates the danger I'd been afraid of in case of a Grand Coalition: that disgruntled voters would have nowhere but the extreme right to turn to. Wouldnt wish a Fortuynist revolution on you, especially not one without Fortuyn.

I'm just reeling from all the parties!

I'm a litle jealous of all those choices.

Keep us informed about the mayor thing, Walter!

And interesting that there were so many voted for the Leftists. You're in Northrhein Westfalen, arent you, outside the Ruhr area? The old PDS probably never did anything there, did it?