Elections in Germany update:No turn to the right, after all!

On the other hand, Volker Kauder, the CDU's secretary-general, said this afternoon that there won't be any changes in Merkel's 'election team':
"We don't need and want a person debate now."

What's at stake as Germany goes to polls (seen by the Independent)

Germany
Merkel victory

A coalition of the CDU with its sister party the CSU and the liberal FDP would mean a shift away from the traditional social democrat model towards the free market, and a far simpler tax system with a uniform, 'flat' tax rate is a distinct possibility.

Schröder victory

Another SPD/Green coalition with Schröder and Joschka Fischer as Foreign Minister would likely serve up more of the same domestically. But a renewed mandate might allow sped-up reforms to benefits and health care systems.

Coalition

A middle-of-the-road result in which each party would have to decide which commitments to compromise on. It could be good to have broad consensus for measured economic reform. But it could also mean incessant bickering and stagnation

Europe
Merkel victory

A coalition with Merkel at its head is bad news for Ankara's quest for EU membership. She wants a "privileged partnership" instead. French presidential wannabe Nicholas Sarkozy will be delighted if Germany turns to the right, as he intends to make France follow suit.

Schröder victory

Whether he is re-elected to an unchanged coalition or is forced to accommodate the harder left, Schröder's optimistic attitude towards Europe - and in particular his passionate support of Turkey's accession to the EU - is very unlikely to change.

Coalition

There is no chance Mr Schröder would stay as SPD leader in a CDU/CSU coalition. EU politics will also depend on who will be foreign minister. Germany's contribution to the EU budget, which CDU/CSU criticise, will certainly be on the agenda

America
Merkel victory

A Merkel win may see a blurring in American eyes between the "old" and "new" Europe distinctions but it would change little in terms of Germany's foreign policy, although Merkel will want to rebuild links with the Bush administration.

Schröder victory

The Chancellor, with his fearsome opposition to the Iraq war, is the embodiment of Donald Rumsfeld's "old Europe". Knowing that the majority of voters are against America's aggressive foreign policy, Schröder would stick to his colder approach to Washington.

Coalition

Merkel will make it her mission to rebuild links with the US. Nonetheless policies on Iraq, climate change and Iran should stay the same. Ms Merkel has already indicated that a permanent seat on the UN Security Council will not be her priority.

Two more articles in the same paper - same issue - related to the German election:

The bosses' Chancellor may abandon ungrateful nation for New York

Dutch EU commissioner backs Merkel and causes political row

I think it's interesting the Independent doesn't notice that 'more of the same' is not a realistic option. The current coalition doesn't nearly have enough popular support to continue governing without Lafontaine's and Gysi's Linkspartei. Taking the Linkspartei in would cause a significant shift to the left, and I don't see this shift anywhere in the Independent's overview.

Oh dear.

Second poll in a row that reveals a small, last-minute swing back to CDU/CSU and FDP again. It's small enough to only undo a slice of the recoveries the SPD has made over the past few weeks; but might well be just enough to secure the right-wing parties a narrow majority after all.

Forsa, in just half an hour ago:

CDU/CSU 42% (no ch.)
SPD 33% (-2)
FDP 7,5% (+1,5)
Leftists 7,5% (+0,5)
Greens 6,5% (-0,5)

The proposed right-wing government of CDU/CSU + FDP gets 49,5%, the other parliamentary parties 47%, compared with 48% versus 49% before.

Emnid, the day before yesterday:

CDU/CSU 42% (+1,5)
SPD 33,5% (-1)
Leftists 8% (no ch.)
Greens 7% (no ch.)
FDP 6,5% (-0,5)

The proposed right-wing government of CDU/CSU + FDP gets 48,5%, the other parliamentary parties 48,5% as well, compared with 47,5% versus 49,5% before.

Nice idea to get the ideal candidate :wink:

Apparantly Tony Blair who was quietly supportive of Schroeder last time, now wants to see a grand coalition and therefore stalemate in Germany. This would leave Blair and the British economic model without serious challenge in Europe.

time for serious political debate anyone?

http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=59706&highlight=

OK, the very last Wahlkreisprognose from election.de:



Compared to two weeks ago, advantage goes to SPD in 14 extra districts, to CDU/CSU in 12 less and to the Linkspartei in 2 less; but in numbers of districts the Christian-Democrats still lead the Social-Democrats with a whopping 198 to 97, with 4 for the other leftists.

Good thing they got that proportional representation-correction thing going on... ;-)

We'll know in about 13 hours a lot more :wink:

Well good luck Walter

Hope you are very busy today counting the thousands of SPD votes in your area...and you get the result you want.

I sure hope not!

And of course I hope you Thomas are equally busy counting all the votes in your area and you get the result you want.....


(phew that was close but I think I got away with it )

Well, it has been the busiest time I ever had had at the polling station: no time for small talk and people were even queuing up all the time since 8 o'clock!

Thanks for the good wishes, Steve.

But I surely don't hope to get a result only close to that Thomas wants

Queuing (had to refer back to your post walter for spelling of quieung) since 8 o'clock of the morning?

Wunderbar. Glad there is still somewhere in Europe that takes democracy seriously.

My queueing theory is quite simple (and partly true, as confirmed Mrs. Walter, who watched for 2 1/2 hours the parade, and media): we have a big regional fete here ("county schützenfest").

Generally, in some parts of Germany the outcome seems to be higher than before (my homestate is one of them): this could be favourable for the Socialdemocrats.

excellent

I do hope Schroeder + partners get the 50%

(sorry Thomas, but then you understand I can't vote in Germany...I just think Fr. Schoeder has nice teeth)

Last I heard was Linkspartei would get 8%. How are they doing?

Presumably there are "exit" polls? When will we know the forcast result? Getting quite excited here, German election has to be better than Man Utd/Liverpool.......

Not sure, what a 0 - 0 would mean re our elections - but it's really better:

"Exit polls" a 17:00 h British Summer Time (=16:00 GMT).
First trends at about 17:20 BST (16:20 GMT), with a 'believable" result perhaps about 30 mins later.

If it gets very, very close, it may last a bit longer than usually until we'll get the preliminary final results - which happened here normaly at around 21:00 GMT.

Thats very quick Walter. Efficient Germans as usual. You remember that in some place called Harlow, it took our Government Minister 72 hours to get the good news he had won by 93 votes ? !

Might well be that such has to do with how many people are engaged: for the 1,300 votes in my voting district, we have 10 people counting; "Ulla's district" has only 9 - but only because one person can't come again in 40 minutes (they've only 1, 100 votes to count but are usually much slower: two 'accountant-related' persons amongst them ).