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Political Polls- Can They be Taken Seriously?

 
 
Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 04:38 am
Well, here you have two respected polls, Pew and Gallup. One says one thing, while the other says the opposite:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/17/presidential.polls/index.html

Which leads me to the conclusion that one cannot take political polls very seriously.

What do YOU think? Do you give a lot of credence to political polls? Do you tend to believe the polls which come out to YOUR way of thinking?

Theoretically, if a poll uses a well designed statistical model, and allows for a margin of error, the results should be accurate. So why the discrepancy?
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Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 1,300 • Replies: 20
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Montana
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 07:46 am
From what I've seen, polls don't mean anything at all and I wonder why anyone pays any attention to them.
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McGentrix
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 09:22 am
Because our guy is winning they mean something. How many times have the left used polls as an example of how badly Bush is poing on A2K?

Ther 1,932 post in the political forum that mentions the word "polls".
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Montana
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 09:28 am
McG
I don't know about others, but regardless of who's supposedly winning, I don't pay attention to them.
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Phoenix32890
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 09:43 am
McGentrix- I hear ya. Some people DO take credence in polls, and each side uses the figures to their own psychological advantage.
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Phoenix32890
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 09:47 am
Good grief! I checked the "search" function for the entire forum for the word "polls" and the word came up 2,433 times! Shocked

But polls could not beat "sex" which came up 7332 times!
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roger
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 10:10 am
I think the polls are mostly used by the politicians themselves, to find out which story is working for them, and which not to tell again.
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sozobe
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 10:16 am
I'd love to get fbaezer's take.
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au1929
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 10:37 am
The only poll that I have any interest in is the one on election day. The rest I ignore.
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Lightwizard
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:05 am
Both sides will quote polls but it should be as an aside to their argument. No way it can be the entire argument or prediction of who will win. The question is not who uses the word polls but who flaunts them as Gospel. I think a quick check would show which side is the most guily. Not that a poll of A2Kers might show it's ineffective.
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Lightwizard
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:07 am
(It's "my poll is bigger than your poll," and who knows which one owns a Corvette).
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blueveinedthrobber
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:07 am
I like the poll that he dancers come down....oops...that's pole......sorry Embarrassed
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Lightwizard
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:08 am
Firemen also come down poles and who knows which ones are Bi-Polar?
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Lightwizard
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:10 am
All this sexual innuendo is vague and y'all know if there's anything I can't stand, it's vagueness.
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blueveinedthrobber
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:10 am
damn lw, what clubs have you been hanging out at? Shocked Laughing
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Phoenix32890
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:13 am
Quote:
I like the poll that he dancers come down....oops...that's pole......sorry


Bi- Not to worry. I kinda figure that it's the low barometric pressure that caused the slipup! Laughing
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Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:24 am
Our pressure is up due to a hurricane at Baja, Cal.

Where the poll pressure is up is another story.
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Frank Apisa
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:26 am
And to think...

...I was gonna post something like...

..."Hey, the way questions are asked sometimes has a big effect on how the responder replies, and maybe that accounts for the discrepancy."...

...but I thought it was too light and obvious.

But now that yer talkin' about poles rather than polls, well...


...ahhh, maybe I won't post at all.
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Lightwizard
 
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Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 11:31 am
It just shows how seriously some of us take polls and, no, it's not the Bada Bing! -- it's in New Jersey and fictional.
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Phoenix32890
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2004 12:00 pm
Quote:
..."Hey, the way questions are asked sometimes has a big effect on how the responder replies, and maybe that accounts for the discrepancy."...


Good thought, Frank. What would be fascinating is if the two polling groups asked the exact same questions.
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