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US Generals: Iraq Far graver than Vietnam

 
 
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 10:53 am
Far graver than Vietnam

Most senior US military officers now believe the war on Iraq has turned into a disaster on an unprecedented scale

Sidney Blumenthal
Thursday September 16, 2004
The Guardian

'Bring them on!" President Bush challenged the early Iraqi insurgency in July of last year. Since then, 812 American soldiers have been killed and 6,290 wounded, according to the Pentagon. Almost every day, in campaign speeches, Bush speaks with bravado about how he is "winning" in Iraq. "Our strategy is succeeding," he boasted to the National Guard convention on Tuesday.

But, according to the US military's leading strategists and prominent retired generals, Bush's war is already lost. Retired general William Odom, former head of the National Security Agency, told me: "Bush hasn't found the WMD. Al-Qaida, it's worse, he's lost on that front. That he's going to achieve a democracy there? That goal is lost, too. It's lost." He adds: "Right now, the course we're on, we're achieving Bin Laden's ends."

Retired general Joseph Hoare, the former marine commandant and head of US Central Command, told me: "The idea that this is going to go the way these guys planned is ludicrous. There are no good options. We're conducting a campaign as though it were being conducted in Iowa, no sense of the realities on the ground. It's so unrealistic for anyone who knows that part of the world. The priorities are just all wrong."

Jeffrey Record, professor of strategy at the Air War College, said: "I see no ray of light on the horizon at all. The worst case has become true. There's no analogy whatsoever between the situation in Iraq and the advantages we had after the second world war in Germany and Japan."

W Andrew Terrill, professor at the Army War College's strategic studies institute - and the top expert on Iraq there - said: "I don't think that you can kill the insurgency". According to Terrill, the anti-US insurgency, centred in the Sunni triangle, and holding several cities and towns - including Fallujah - is expanding and becoming more capable as a consequence of US policy.

"We have a growing, maturing insurgency group," he told me. "We see larger and more coordinated military attacks. They are getting better and they can self-regenerate. The idea there are x number of insurgents, and that when they're all dead we can get out is wrong. The insurgency has shown an ability to regenerate itself because there are people willing to fill the ranks of those who are killed. The political culture is more hostile to the US presence. The longer we stay, the more they are confirmed in that view."

After the killing of four US contractors in Fallujah, the marines besieged the city for three weeks in April - the watershed event for the insurgency. "I think the president ordered the attack on Fallujah," said General Hoare. "I asked a three-star marine general who gave the order to go to Fallujah and he wouldn't tell me. I came to the conclusion that the order came directly from the White House." Then, just as suddenly, the order was rescinded, and Islamist radicals gained control, using the city as a base.

"If you are a Muslim and the community is under occupation by a non-Islamic power it becomes a religious requirement to resist that occupation," Terrill explained. "Most Iraqis consider us occupiers, not liberators." He describes the religious imagery common now in Fallujah and the Sunni triangle: "There's talk of angels and the Prophet Mohammed coming down from heaven to lead the fighting, talk of martyrs whose bodies are glowing and emanating wonderful scents."

"I see no exit," said Record. "We've been down that road before. It's called Vietnamisation. The idea that we're going to have an Iraqi force trained to defeat an enemy we can't defeat stretches the imagination. They will be tainted by their very association with the foreign occupier. In fact, we had more time and money in state building in Vietnam than in Iraq."

General Odom said: "This is far graver than Vietnam. There wasn't as much at stake strategically, though in both cases we mindlessly went ahead with the war that was not constructive for US aims. But now we're in a region far more volatile, and we're in much worse shape with our allies."

Terrill believes that any sustained US military offensive against the no-go areas "could become so controversial that members of the Iraqi government would feel compelled to resign". Thus, an attempted military solution would destroy the slightest remaining political legitimacy. "If we leave and there's no civil war, that's a victory."

General Hoare believes from the information he has received that "a decision has been made" to attack Fallujah "after the first Tuesday in November. That's the cynical part of it - after the election. The signs are all there."

He compares any such planned attack to the late Syrian dictator Hafez al-Asad's razing of the rebel city of Hama. "You could flatten it," said Hoare. "US military forces would prevail, casualties would be high, there would be inconclusive results with respect to the bad guys, their leadership would escape, and civilians would be caught in the middle. I hate that phrase collateral damage. And they talked about dancing in the street, a beacon for democracy."

General Odom remarked that the tension between the Bush administration and the senior military officers over Iraqi was worse than any he has ever seen with any previous government, including Vietnam. "I've never seen it so bad between the office of the secretary of defence and the military. There's a significant majority believing this is a disaster. The two parties whose interests have been advanced have been the Iranians and al-Qaida. Bin Laden could argue with some cogency that our going into Iraq was the equivalent of the Germans in Stalingrad. They defeated themselves by pouring more in there. Tragic."
------------------------------------------------

Sidney Blumenthal, a former senior adviser to President Clinton, is Washington bureau chief of salon.com
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BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 10:57 am
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:01 am
Senators sound alarm over Iraq
Senators sound alarm over Iraq
Criticism from Lugar, others comes as bleak assessment about country's future is revealed.

By David Stout
The New York Times
September 16, 2004

WASHINGTON -- Republicans on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said Wednesday that the Bush administration's request to divert more than $3 billion from reconstruction work in Iraq to security measures was a sign that the American campaign in Iraq is in serious trouble.

The criticism came as the existence of a highly classified -- and pessimistic -- National Intelligence Estimate about the future security and stability of Iraq was revealed.

The report, assembled by senior analysts this summer, determined that the war-torn country's stability would be tenuous at best, a U.S. official said late Wednesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The slow progress of rebuilding in Iraq brought denouncements from Senate Republicans and Democrats on Wednesday who said the risks of failure are great if the White House doesn't act with greater urgency.

"It's beyond pitiful, it's beyond embarrassing. It's now in the zone of dangerous," said Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., referring to figures showing that about 6 percent of the reconstruction money approved by Congress last year has been spent.

Sen. Richard G. Lugar, R-Ind., chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said: "Although we recognize these funds must not be spent unwisely, the slow pace of reconstruction spending means that we are failing to fully take advantage of one of our most potent tools to influence the direction of Iraq."

Committee members vented their frustrations at a hearing where the State Department explained its request to divert $3.46 billion in reconstruction funds to security and economic development. The money was part of the $18.4 billion approved by Congress last year, mostly for public works projects.

The request comes as heavy fighting continues between U.S.-led forces and a variety of Iraqi insurgents, endangering prospects for elections slated for January.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said circumstances in Iraq have changed since last year. "It's important that you have some flexibility."

But Hagel said the shift in funds "does not add up in my opinion to a pretty picture, to a picture that shows that we're winning. But it does add up to this: an acknowledgment that we are in deep trouble."

The unnamed U.S. official who described the intelligence estimate said some "trend lines . . . point to a civil war." The official said it "would be fair" to call the document "pessimistic."

The intelligence estimate, which was prepared for President Bush, considered the period between July and the end of 2005.

The document contrasts with public comments by Bush and his senior aides, who speak more optimistically about the prospects for a peaceful and free Iraq. "We're making progress on the ground," Bush said at his Texas ranch late last month.

Lugar, speaking about the reallocation of reconstruction funds, said the Iraqi people were looking for signs of stability as their elections drew closer.

"If the shift of these funds slows down reconstruction, security may suffer in the long run," Lugar said, adding that security and reconstruction ought to be achieved "simultaneously."

The committee's top Democrat, Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, was more outspoken. "The window's closing, the window of opportunity," he said.

The White House asserted that progress was being made in Iraq.

"You know, every step of the way in Iraq there have been pessimists and hand-wringers who said it can't be done," McClellan said at a news briefing.
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:03 am
Press Reports on U.S. Casualties: About 17,000 Short
The Press is beginning to report on George Bush's directions to the military to reduce the number of US casualties until after the November election. In the meantime, this political order is giving the terrorists and Iraqi insurgents time to regroup, rearm, recruit and increase their strength, which the military will eventually have to face "after the election." So much for the Commander in Chief's campassion and gratitute for his military's service: Don't fight will help me get reelected; then die because of my political agenda. I really do hate Bush! ---BBB
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Press Reports on U.S. Casualties: About 17,000 Short, UPI Says
By Mark Benjamin, UPI
Published: September 15, 2004

NEW YORK (UPI) Nearly 17,000 service members medically evacuated from Iraq and Afghanistan are absent from public Pentagon casualty reports commonly cited by newspapers, according to military data reviewed by United Press International. Most don't fit the definition of casualties, according to the Pentagon, but a veterans' advocate said they should all be counted.

The Pentagon has reported 1,019 dead and 7,245 wounded from Iraq.

The military has evacuated 16,765 individual service members from Iraq and Afghanistan for injuries and ailments not directly related to combat, according to the U.S. Transportation Command, which is responsible for the medical evacuations. Most are from Operation Iraqi Freedom.

The Pentagon's public casualty reports, available at www.defenselink.mil, list only service members who died or were wounded in action. The Pentagon's own definition of a war casualty provided to UPI in December describes a casualty as, "Any person who is lost to the organization by having been declared dead, duty status/whereabouts unknown, missing, ill, or injured."

The casualty reports do list soldiers who died in non-combat-related incidents or died from illness. But service members injured or ailing from the same non-combat causes (the majority that appear to be "lost to the organization")are not reflected in those Pentagon reports.

In a statement Wednesday, the Pentagon gave a different definition that included casualty descriptions by severity and type and said most medical evacuations did not count. "The great majority of service members medically evacuated from Operation Iraqi Freedom are not casualties, by either Department of Defense definitions or the common understanding of the average newspaper reader."

It cited such ailments as "muscle strain, back pain, kidney stones, diarrhea and persistent fever" as non-casualty evacuations. "Casualty reports released to the public are generally confined to fatalities and those wounded in action," the statement said.

A veterans' advocate said the Pentagon should make a full reporting of the casualties, including non-combat ailments and injuries. "They are still casualties of war," said Mike Schlee, director of the National Security and Foreign Relations Division at the American Legion. "I think we have to have an honest disclosure of what the short- and long-term casualties of any conflict are."

A spokesman for the transportation command said that without orders from U.S. Central Command, his unit would not separate the medical evacuation data to show how many came from Iraq and Afghanistan. "We stay in our lane," said Lt. Col. Scott Ross. But most are clearly from Operation Iraqi Freedom where several times as many troops are deployed as in Afghanistan.

Among veterans from Iraq seeking help from the VA, 5,375 have been diagnosed with a mental problem, making it the third-leading diagnosis after bone problems and digestive problems. Among the mental problems were 800 soldiers who became psychotic.

A military study published in the New England Journal of Medicine in July showed that 16 percent of soldiers returning from Iraq might suffer major depression, generalized anxiety or post-traumatic stress disorder. Around 11 percent of soldiers returning from Afghanistan may have the same problems, according to that study.
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:04 am
*yawn*
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kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:04 am
Aah, what the hell do they know anyway? Bush says we're winning, and that's all that matters, dammit!
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:07 am
It's time to put anything the media can grab about Iraq back in the news, Kerry's sinking for chrissakes....
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kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:14 am
Brand X wrote:
It's time to put anything the media can grab about Iraq back in the news....


Yeah, it's so annoyingly partisan when the media reports the truth, isn't it?
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:17 am
Yeah, when they do, let me know because nothing in this thread that resembles a media report is anywhere near the truth.
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:17 am
You see it your way, I see it mine...
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:20 am
McG, if you can find the good news on Iraq, please let us know. In the meantime, I think I'll go with the jounalists who are covering it.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:25 am
Plenty of good news. You just don't hear about because it doesn't sell papers.

All you hear about is the violence that is centered in about half a dozen urban areas. you keep hearing the same names over and over. One would think that all of Iraq is made up of only Najaf, Falluja, Baghdad and Sadr City.

Can you name 6 other cities in Iraq that have been reported on in the last 6 months?
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:32 am
McGentrix wrote:
Plenty of good news. You just don't hear about because it doesn't sell papers.


Okay, so let's hear it then. And if it doesn't get reported, then how do you know the news is good? Where do you get your news?
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:38 am
There's an old axiom "No news is good news." I believe it fits this criteria perfectly.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:42 am
The singular of criteria is criterion. No cigar, and not even a nice try.
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:44 am
Come on, McG. Is that the best you can come up with?

You must be tired today. Smile
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:45 am
Just be sure to read all of it. I took the time to answer your question, please be sure to read my response.
_____________________________________________________________

'Finish the Job'
A roundup of the past two weeks' good news from Iraq.

BY ARTHUR CHRENKOFF
Monday, August 2, 2004 12:01 a.m. EDT

Over a month into sovereignty, and Iraq still continues to generate a flood of bad news, at least as far as the mainstream media are concerned. Foreign workers keep getting kidnapped and occasionally executed; terrorist bombs continue to explode throughout Baghdad and other cities, although the victims are now overwhelmingly Iraqi civilians. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, learned commissions deliver their reports, providing the media with fresh opportunities to talk about intelligence failures and strategic blunders.

Yet for every foreigner taken hostage there are stories of hundreds of Iraqis who can now enjoy in many different ways their regained liberty. For every attack, with all its terror and bloodshed, there are countless stories of courage, determination and resourcefulness on the part of the Iraqi people. And for every intelligence failure by the government agencies then, there is an intelligence failure by the media now. Which is why you are likely to have recently missed some of the stories below.

• Society. Despite the best (or rather the worst) efforts of al Qaeda-affiliated jihadis and Baath Party nostalgics, Iraq is steadily moving in the direction of representative democracy. The national convention is yet another step towards the next year's elections:

Skulking in the dirty corridor of a courthouse, Shaka Khudaya waits to hear if he will be one of 1,000 Iraqis chosen to take part in an unprecedented trial of democracy later this month. Small selection teams across Iraq's 18 provinces are pouring over piles of hand-written applications and nominations from people wanting to participate in a national conference that will pick a sort of interim Iraqi parliament. . . .

The conference in Baghdad will bring together 1,000 semi-elected people from Iraq's rich ethnic and religious mix to pick a 100-member interim national council that will serve until January elections. The new body will have the power to approve Iraq's 2005 budget, veto legislation with a two-thirds majority and question ministers over policy.

"This is just a step towards democracy because it is not based on direct elections but it is a step in the right direction," said Fuad Maassum, the head of a preparatory committee that is organising the conference.

There are problems and delays to be sure, but the people's conference certainly has a momentum on its side (the delay is at least partly due to the United Nations' request). Yet, while we celebrate Iraq's slow journey towards democracy, we should always remember the courage of ordinary people who are making the ultimate sacrifice in order to help rebuild their country: In just the two weeks after the transition of sovereignty, six members of Baghdad's city council were assassinated by the enemies of freedom and democracy. It's a testament to the determination and commitment of Iraqi community leaders that they are not giving in and giving up despite the very real and immediate risks.

Some areas of Iraq, like Kurdistan, are much further advanced along the road to normalcy, as one of the best correspondents out of Iraq, Nicholas Rothwell of the Australian, writes: "The construction of an open, democratic, Western-oriented society may be an elusive dream in the rest of Iraq, but it is a solid reality here. The Kurds even control their own territory with their Peshmerga militia, separate from the Iraqi armed forces."

Speaking of Kurdistan, the Iraqi interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi, recently received a much needed political boost when the leaders of the two main Kurdish political parties publicly put their support behind him: "The Kurds, whose areas enjoy relative peace, see it in their interests to provide the interim government the support it needs to succeed in its battle against insurgents and terrorists. Allawi has openly supported Kurdish autonomy in the country and recognized their current semi-independent status."

Other minorities continue to breathe easier. One hundred eighty thousand Assyrian Christians celebrate their holiday in peace and joy:

The Sunday morning attacks in a Baghdad neighborhood weren't the kind that people might expect in this violence-plagued nation. Armed with buckets of water balloons, grinning children hurled them for hours at each other, unwary pedestrians and passing cars. . . . Sunday was an Assyrian Christian festival commemorating mass baptisms by Jesus and the apostles.

Iraqis are also now free to remember their past. The recent discovery of the remains of former president Abd al-Kareem Qassem, murdered during a Baath Party coup in 1963, is bringing unexpected joy to many: "For many Iraqis--especially the poor--Qassem's short-lived regime was a golden age, the first time they had a president who cared about them. They see his rule as a time free of the neglect that preceded it as well as the wars and repression that came after."

Not content just with their own democratic process, Iraqis are becoming increasingly split on the U.S. presidential election:

"The Democratic party is just a party of slogans: they only call for freedom," says Muath Karra, an eyeglass salesman. "But George W. Bush, he is brave, and he is a man of action. I hope he wins this election, because he is a genius--and brave."

Muhammed Shammari, a taxi driver, is a Kerry man. "We want John Kerry to win, because George W. Bush brought harm to America and all the world under the pretext of launching the war on terror," he says. "And generally, the Democratic Party is better than Republicans." . . .

Two months ago, independent Iraqi pollster Sadoun Dulame asked 3,075 Iraqis from all over the country which US candidate they preferred. Most Iraqis scorned the question, but about 15 percent responded passionately--almost all Bush backers.

"When we asked this 15 percent why they cared, they said, 'Because the American election will affect conditions in Iraq,' " says Mr. Dulame, director of the Iraqi Center for Research and Strategic Studies. "They prefer that Bush stay. Because if Bush leaves, maybe the Democrats will adopt a new policy, and not pay so much attention to Iraq."

In a perfect reversal of US demographics, the Bush lovers tended to be more educated and clustered in cosmopolitan areas. Call them Red Iraqis. "Most of them were intellectuals," says Dulame. "US intellectuals, maybe most of them adopt Democratic values. But in Iraq, that's the reality.' "

The early modern Westerners might have had the right idea that on the other side of the world things tend to be upside-down.

To get the numbers right in the new Iraq, the government is spending between $60 million and $100 million and employing 150,000 teachers to conduct the new census in a single day. The data from the Saddam era is too outdated and too biased to provide an accurate picture of today's Iraq:

The 1997 census did not count the three Kurdish provinces then separated by the no-fly zone, nor an estimated 4 million Iraqi refugees.

This also was the height of the "Arabization" program, in which Kurds, Turkmen and other minorities were forced to list their ethnicity as "Arab"or risk losing their homes, jobs or lives."

As Nuha Yousif, census manager in Iraq's Ministry of Planning, says: "In the old days, the census was conducted for the interests of the government. . . . People will want to participate in the census because they know that this time it is information to build the new Iraq." In many ways we in the West, too, look at Iraq through the prism of Saddam's census figures; now finally we might all acquire a different, better view of the country.

As Iraq re-enters the world stage, its citizens are once again free to travel overseas:

Under Saddam Hussein's 24-year regime and in the war's aftermath, [overseas] ventures were difficult and expensive, if not impossible. So since the interim Iraqi government began issuing new passports this month, countless Iraqis have lined up to get one.

The new passports look like the old ones, complete with green covers bearing the national emblem. The difference is that Saddam tightly controlled who received a passport and where people could travel, if they could travel at all. So far, Iraq's new government has imposed few restrictions. It already has lifted a ban, based on Islamic law and imposed by Saddam, on women traveling alone.

"During the old regime, there were very strict conditions," said police Maj. Khamis Ibrahim, the deputy manager of one of Baghdad's five passport offices. "But these days, there are no such restrictions."

It's the seemingly little things, which we in the West take for granted, that make so much difference to those newly liberated.

In the media sector, a recent survey by Oxford Research International shows that 61% of Iraqis had watched the new TV channel Alhurra in the previous week. Alhurra, Arabic for "The Free One", is a US-funded Arabic-language broadcaster. "Since it launched on February 14, 2004, Alhurra has quickly established itself as an important resource for Iraqis to get their news--19 percent of those surveyed cited Alhurra as one of their top three sources of information. Of those people who watch Alhurra, 64 percent found the news to be 'very' or 'somewhat' reliable." By extension, this is not meant to be, but undoubtedly is, a good news story:

Aljazeera has expressed outrage after the Iraqi foreign minister attacked its coverage of events in Iraq and said he was considering closing down the channel's Baghdad bureau.

In other media news, Iraqis are captivated by a new music hit, "Bortuqala" (Orange), with its racy (for Iraq) video. "This song is not only a rare Iraqi hit on the Arab music charts, but also the most erotic thing that many here can remember appearing on their TV screens, bringing delight and scandal to a country that is starved of frivolity and fun."

In cultural heritage news, "Global Heritage Fund (GHF) and the Iraqi State Board of Antiquities signed a multi-year partnership to jointly develop master conservation plans and training to help conserve Iraq's most endangered and important archaeological and world heritage sites. 'This is a major step toward bringing world-class conservation to Iraq and preventing further loss and destruction,' says Jeff Morgan, executive director of Global Heritage Fund."

In sports news, the Iraqi soccer comeback continues, after a 3-2 victory over Turkmenistan in the Asian Cup. "Now we are building the new team, the Olympic team," says the new national coach, Adnan Hamad. "Hamad's boys no longer answer to Uday Hussein, the psychotic son of the toppled ruler, known to beat the soles of their feet or lock them up for days over slip-ups on the pitch." Which must make it so much easier to enjoy sport. Here's more on the Iraq's phoenix-like soccer team.

Iraqi sport generally is recovering, according to this profile in Time magazine:

Last fall, in southern Iraq, a Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) official approached Maurice (Termite) Watkins, 47, at breakfast. Watkins, a professional boxer turned pest-control contractor, had spent the previous six months killing scorpions and camelback spiders around U.S. military bases and reconstruction sites in Iraq. The official, regional coordinator Mike Gfoeller, had heard that Watkins could fight more than mosquitoes. "What are the odds of you getting an Iraqi boxer qualified for the Olympics?" Gfoeller asked. Termite spoke from the heart. "About one in a million."

Those chances seemed good enough for Gfoeller. Iraq had a new boxing coach, and six months later the country had its Athens-bound fighter--Najah Ali, 24, a flyweight with a computer-science degree from Alrafdean University in Baghdad. Freed from the torturous reign of Iraq's former Olympic CEO, Uday Hussein, and spurred by a trickle of private investment in sports, several other Iraqis will join Ali as unlikely Olympians this summer. For the first time since 1988, Iraq's soccer team has qualified for the Olympics.

And this clincher: "Iraqi women's sports--destroyed under Uday's rule because athletes feared he would rape them--are recovering."

You can also read this story of Iraqi boxer Najah Ali, who has been training with the U.S. team in Colorado. And just to remind the world of the good old days, the Iraqi Olympic committee has decided to put on display the torture equipment used by Uday on some of their less fortunate predecessors.

Although this should not qualify as a sport, the Baghdadis warm up to the craze of drag racing by the Tigris River.

Finally, in animal news, "The last and perhaps the most pampered prisoners of Saddam Hussein's Iraq groggily tasted freedom of sorts yesterday, swapping a gilded-cage existence in one of the former dictator's palaces for Baghdad zoo. Nine lions, the centrepiece of a bizarre menagerie of exotic animals kept by Saddam's son Uday, were tranquillised and moved from the heavily-fortified Green Zone, centre of coalition operations, to a purpose-built enclosure." The enclosure has been funded by the First Cavalry Division.

• Economy. As planned, Iraq has opened its bond market, with the issue of the first postwar debt. One hundred fifty billion dinars ($104 million) were raised in three-month treasury bills at 5.5% interest rate. "Demand was healthy," according to the central bank's chief economist, Mudher Kasim. As another report explains, "Iraq's three-week-old government is selling debt to help pay local banks $3 billion of debt that dates from Saddam's rule and to reduce its reliance on international loans and revenue from oil. The government plans to hold twice-monthly auctions to raise as much as $1.2 billion by year-end. 'It shows the sophistication of the Iraqi banking system,' said Richard Segal, research director at Exotix, a London brokerage for emerging market securities, including Iraqi debt."

Meanwhile, the Iraqi stock market continues to expand: "The miniature Liberty Bell clanged. Elbows flew. Sweat poured down foreheads. Sales tickets were passed and, with a flick of the wrist, 10,000 shares of the Middle East Bank had more than doubled in value. The frantic pace Sunday of those first 10 minutes of trading typified the enthusiasm behind the Iraq Stock Exchange--a new institution seen as a critical step in building a new Iraqi economy." That's after an already impressive start, when more than 500 million shares were traded on the first day--"more than the Baghdad Stock Exchange ever achieved." At the end of the second session, 560 million shares changed hands and the aggregate share price of companies being traded rose to $2.66 million, up from $2.21 million at the start--a healthy 20% increase. In fact the Iraqi stock market is proving a success for all involved:

Emad Shaker Abdul Al-Jabar, 41, had a good day after the cop-cum-broker made three time's his monthly salary by selling off shares bought just one week ago on the revamped Iraq Stock Exchange.

"It's simply fantastic. I sold shares worth five million dinars (3,500 dollars) and made a profit of more than two million dinars (1,600 dollars) in just one session. What a great day," exclaimed Abdul Al-Jabar.

The bourse, which opened on June 24, enjoyed record trading volumes on its sixth session to date, with more than two billion shares swapping hands. "The volumes seen Sunday are simply historic," Taha Ahmed Abdulsalam, chief executive of the exchange, told AFP. "This is despite the primitive system we have. Imagine what it would be once the electronic trading terminals come," he said referring to a plan to shift from the old-fashioned paper system to a fully automated trading floor.

Iraq's stock exchange is a product of more than a year's work by 12 brokerage firms and banks that jointly own it. It has 27 listed companies, with about 100 more due to go public in the next six weeks.

Not surprisingly, Talib Al Tabatabie, chairman of the stock exchange, is optimistic about his country's future: "Iraq is a very rich country potentially. . . . It needs only efforts to redevelop it again and you will have one of the richest countries in the Middle East... Iraq is by all means a futuristic country. . . . I have a strong faith that the economy of Iraq will be one of the healthiest, strongest economies in the Middle East and that of course will be reflected in the stock exchange. . . . If I am to be permitted to dream . . . Iraq will develop into the Japan of [The Middle East], and it wouldn't take a long time." As the Middle Eastern saying goes, from your mouth to God's ears.

As reported earlier, the Iraqi authorities are planning to lease its state-owned factories for the time being, before the first democratically elected government tackles privatization early next year: "Eight factories will be up for bid by next week, said [Industry Minister Hajim] al-Hassani, who spent the last 25 years in the United States, where he earned a doctorate in agriculture and research economics from the University of Connecticut. He later ran an investment management firm in Los Angeles." Some of the factories up for lease include the Al-Zawra'a complex of electronics, electrical and mechanical plants.

To facilitate foreign investment, the Private Sector Development Department was created within the Ministry of Commerce. Also, the newly formed Iraqi Business Council, based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, is working with the Iraqi government to provide advice, information and support for investors who want to assist in reconstruction. The Iraqi Business Council is planning to organize a conference in Baghdad in January next year to showcase to international investors economic opportunities in Iraq. Meanwhile, the first British-Iraqi chamber of commerce has been formed during a procurement conference in Amman, Jordan. The Iraqi-American businesspeople are also contributing to the revival of economic life in their homeland.

To facilitate trade between Jordan and Iraq, the Jordanian government has considerably eased travel restriction placed on the fleet of 5,000 trucks that before the war carried much of the trade between the two countries. The restrictions have been put in place in the aftermath of Saddam's toppling.

In oil-sector news, Iraq is planning to extend a pipeline through Jordan, as part of the effort to increase the oil exports to 5.3 million barrels a day by the end of the year. The Jordanian route will complement Iraq's two main existing pipelines: to Turkey and through Basra to the Persian Gulf. A similar plan for a Jordanian pipeline has been floated during Saddam's reign, but no progress was made then. Now, with increasing economic and political cooperation between Iraq and Jordan, it's no longer a pipe dream, so to speak.

Iraq and Syria have also signed an agreement whereby "Syria is to supply kerosene, benzine and liquefied gas in exchange for Iraqi crude." Iraq has also raised the possibility of resuming oil exports via Syria to Lebanon, through a pipeline disused since 1980, when Syria and Iraq broke off their relations over Damascus' support of Iran. Along the other border, officials from Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil ministries will form a committee to discuss oil operations and cooperation between the two countries. And Russia is providing training to Iraqi oil specialists to assist in reviving the country's oil industry.

This, by the way, is the story of how it all happened for the Iraqi oil industry, against many odds:

In recent months, Iraq's oil production has grown to more than two million barrels per day. At this rate, current oil output and oil exports now exceed post-invasion predictions. Experts had argued that funding shortages, lack of security, the problems of stabilizing a legitimate government, and technology shortfalls would severely limit Iraq's output. Despite the odds, Iraq's daily output reached a post-invasion record of 2.5 million barrels in March.

A number of factors enabled Iraq to increase its output. Most significantly, Washington gave Iraq US$2.3 billion . . . to restore its oil production. After the invasion, no one expected Iraq to get loans, let alone outright grants. Instead, US$2.3 billion was invested directly into its oil sector. To protect the oil fields and other facilities, the Americans dedicated a massive, overwhelming force of soldiers and private contractors. The level of protection was unprecedented even compared to Saddam Hussein's regime.

On the technical side, the Bush administration hired the world's best oil service companies to revamp Iraq's technologically challenged oil fields. They still have a long way to go, but significant improvements are already evident. Moreover, the war didn't change the quality of Iraqi fields, which are still among the richest in the world and can produce oil with relatively little effort and investment.

In telecommunication news, the 45,000 cellphone subscribers in southern Iraq will soon be able to talk to other parts of the country, as Atheer Tel, a joint venture between a private Iraqi company and Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co., which provides a cellphone network to 13 cities in southern Iraq, will link up their network with Orascom Telecom Holding of Egypt, which operates in central Iraq, and Asia Cell, which works in northern Iraq.

And Iraqi mail service is also improving, after a U.S. postal team spent six months in the country to help revamp the country's postal system: "Domestic mail that once took weeks to reach its destination is getting there in days, and the time for international deliveries is going from months to weeks."

• Reconstruction. As this New York Times story notes, the reconstruction of Iraq is progressing "one well after another":

Across the hardscrabble Iraqi countryside, dozens of modest construction initiatives, many so tiny and inexpensive that they could be called microprojects, are generating at least a taste of the good will that Congress envisioned when it approved billions of dollars for grandiose rebuilding plans that have mostly been delayed.

Typical of the little projects is a hole in the ground that was being dug last week by an ungainly contraption, chugging along with big, spinning wheels and an enormous weight that smacked the muddy earth again and again outside the isolated village of Khazna, south of Mosul.

Sometimes it's low-tech, sometimes it's high-tech. The Italian government has announced recently that it will provide Iraq with an Intranet system to link all the government departments. "Iraq was devastated by the former regime. . . . That is why today's agreement on information technology is of vital importance for us to create an infrastructure in the first stage of reconstruction," said Rashad Omar, minister of science and technology in the new Iraqi government.

The Iraqi government has earmarked $1 billion in its 2005 budget to help modernize crumbling Baghdad utilities. The problems are, of course, older than the coalition invasion: "Modernization of Baghdad grounded to a halt in 1980 when the country's former dictator Saddam Hussein launched a ruinous war with Iran that continued for 8 years. The city's basic services are in shambles and streets in several low-income quarters are inundated with heavy water." The coalition and Iraqis are repairing the damage not just of the past 12 months but of the past 24 years.

Meanwhile, a positive development for the Kurdish north: "Keidel & Co., an international systems and management advisory practice, and Schottenstein Zox & Dunn (SZD), a Columbus, Ohio-based law firm, have developed the Kirkuk Foundation in order to help create long-term peace and stability in Kirkuk, potentially Iraq's most volatile province. The Kirkuk Foundation is a $100 million nonprofit entity created to identify and build socioeconomic reform."

An Egyptian-Iraqi joint stock company was recently formed with capitalization of $10 million to undertake reconstruction operations in the areas of infrastructure, irrigation and electricity.

While foreign countries and businesses provide the capital and expertise, the Iraqi private sector aims to contribute indispensable local knowledge. One such business is Hire Iraqis, a bilingual job site devoted to linking Iraqi job seekers with companies engaged in the reconstruction of Iraq. Its founder, 25-year-old Iraqi-American Ahmed Almanaseer, tells me that "to date we have registered 500 job seekers and 40 companies, since our Web site went live in June. What makes HireIraqis.com unique is that we focus exclusively on the Iraqi job market. We have also started an aggressive advertising campaign aimed at registering quality job seekers, and are quickly becoming widely known in Iraq. We presently have an office in Baghdad and have hired three Iraqi employees. We plan to expand to Iraq's other major cities soon." The invisible hand moves once again around Iraq to generate beneficial outcomes for everyone involved.

In the reconstructing Iraq, more opportunities for women, too. Says Rep. Jennifer Dunn, co-chairman of the Congressional Iraqi Women's Caucus:

One particular incident that is still fresh in my mind took place during a visit by a group of remarkable women who are leaders from Iraq. One of the leaders in the group pulled me aside to discuss the need for professional training opportunities for women. At the end of our conversation, desperate to secure U.S. support for Iraqi women, she gave me her wedding ring as a reminder of how important this funding was for the women of her country. I promised to return her ring when the grant to establish a women's center in Mosul was awarded.

I recently learned that several U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) grants have enabled a new Center for Iraqi Women to open its doors in Mosul. It is now offering counseling on women's health issues, business advice, employment and political training, and social and family services.

Now that the women's center has become a reality, I am happily returning the wedding ring to this remarkable woman who is ready to stand up to the challenges to make her nation a better place.

Good news for retired government employees too, who recently received rises in their pensions of between 10% and 90%.

• Humanitarian efforts. Sometimes it's on a grand scale. You might remember the reports in previous installments of "Good News" about the efforts to restore the marshlands in southern Iraq, which Saddam had drained as punishment for Marsh Arabs' support of the failed uprising in 1991. Now, the United Nations has announced an $11 million project to further restore these largest wetlands in the Middle East (according to some, the site of the Garden of Eden) and to provide fresh drinking water for their inhabitants. "Satellite images released by the United Nations in 2001 showed that 90 percent of the original wetlands had been lost and experts feared the entire wetlands could disappear by 2008." Not anymore. You can read all about the restoration of marshlands at Eden Again, and here's more about the quickening pace of restoration.

It's not just the marshlands, as Iraq will follow American practices in managing the Mississippi River to take better care of the Tigris. As the Iraqi water resources minister Abdel Latif Rashid said after his recent trip to the U.S. and Europe:

We have visited the Mississippi in Louisiana to see certain projects along the river, which is the largest in the United States . . . and has a flow 40 times that of the Tigris, even in the summer. . . . Several of these projects could be useful for us, especially in the area of flood prevention, water transportation, dams and the deterioration of riverbanks.

Individuals and communities in the West continue with their grass-roots efforts to help the people of Iraq. There is the wheelchair-bound Victor Renard Powell who has teamed up with Jackson, Miss.-based National Guardsmen stationed in Iraq and their families to distribute 8,000 backpacks to Iraqi school children as part of the Open Hearts Mission (more here). There is also this story of a 12-year-old Mousa Mousawy and his surgery at the Morgan Stanley Children's Hospital of New York-Presbyterian, which will give Mousa a chance to walk again. " 'I would just like to walk around without somebody holding my hands,' Mousa said shortly before going into surgery. Doctors performed a five-hour operation on the boy, cutting tension on his spinal cord that, in recent weeks, had left Mousa unable to walk. 'If we waited another month,' said Dr. Saadi Ghatan, the neurosurgeon who led the operation, 'he would be wheelchair-bound permanently.' "

On a far larger scale, the Bahrain office of the U.S. firm Dyncorp has supplied $6 million worth of medical equipment to Iraq, after being approached by U.S. Army Lt. Col. John Hustleby of the Humanitarian Operations Center in Kuwait. And Church World Service, a cooperative ministry of 36 Protestant, Orthodox and Anglican denominations, is continuing its All Our Children campaign to provide vital aid to Iraq's most vulnerable children (you can find out more about the program here).

• Coalition forces. Sometimes in the war against local terror, cash is the best weapon. "I have met two guys now who say, 'I don't love you and I don't hate you. But somebody's offered me $200 to set up a mortar or a (roadside bomb), and there's a bonus if we kill you,' " says Lt. Col. Randall Potterf, the civil-affairs officer for the U.S. Army's First Infantry Division. The American money is now neutralizing some of those opportunistic causal terrorists. But the funds are also going to many other purposes:

Lt. Col. Jeffrey Sinclair, commander of the 1st Battalion, 18th Infantry Regiment in Tikrit, said he had paid $500 so a driver could get his car repaired, paid "benevolent" money to the family of a victim of violence, paid people to clean streets, bought soccer uniforms for a team and repaired a swimming pool, among other expenditures. Other officers have given money to ice-cream vendors, chicken farmers and hardware suppliers to get their businesses going.

Sadly, for the Iraq's poorest, the American presence, even without cash handouts, is proving to be an unexpected boon: "The Americans have the best garbage. We're very happy with it," says Fadhel Khalaf, as he and other slum dwellers scour for "food, boots, tarps, construction supplies, wooden pallets, jerry cans and other items that military personnel discard in the mistaken impression that they are no longer useful." Let us hope that the new Iraq will generate better opportunities for its most disadvantaged citizens than Saddam's ever did.

Sometimes, the coalition troops find themselves faced with unusual tasks that require a lot more than precise delivery of fire-power. Take for instance North Carolina National Guard's 30th Heavy Separate Brigade, stationed in north-central Iraq, which has to moderate and adjudicate the land disputes between Kurds and the Arabs who had previously displaced them.

Other coalition troops continue with equally important tasks: "During eleven months of their work in Iraq, the Slovak military engineer unit has manually cleared of land mines [an] area of 73,000 square meters and almost 51,000 square meters using the mine clearing vehicle Bozena. With a special mine-clearing tank T-55C over 225,000 square meters were cleared." Slovakia has about 100 military engineers currently in Iraq.

The Japanese contingent similarly has done a lot of good work, supplying 11,400 tons of water, repairing 12 miles of roads, providing medical advice at four local hospitals, and repairing eight local schools. Five hundred fifty Japanese troops have been stationed around the city of Samawah since January this year. Their work is certainly appreciated by the local Iraqi religious leaders.

In addition to their security work and official reconstruction assistance, coalition troops continue with their private humanitarian efforts. These are people like Sgt. Gabe Medina, of Albuquerque, N.M., who heads Operation Pencil Box near Tikrit, distributing school supplies to Iraqi children. More about the troops and their work to help ordinary Iraqis on the website of Spirit of America, and here you can find a profile of Jim Hake Jr., a technology and media industry businessman who founded this great charity, which is helping American soldiers to make a difference in Iraqi lives.

Finally, this unlikely celebrity good news story:

Denzel Washington has launched a one-man campaign to celebrate American troops returning home from the conflict in Iraq. The movie star fears not enough is being done to welcome soldiers--who have risked their lives--back home, and insists Americans should show young men and women how proud they are of them.

• Security. The situation is still dangerous, but improving. Freedom and democracy unfortunately have many enemies, and the new Iraqi authorities don't mince their words, either; as Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari commented recently, "I think what is happening regarding Iraq's relations with its neighbors has other dimensions as some these countries may want to fight America in our country, but we end up paying the price." In an ideal world, Iraq could expect better from its neighbors; to paraphrase the first rule of medicine, at least do no harm.

Security is increasingly in the hands of the Iraqis: "The legions of American soldiers who not so long ago erected checkpoints and roared across the capital, guns pointed out of their Humvees, have diminished. In their place, Iraqi officers are manning checkpoints and swooping down on suspected criminal gangs. Led by their American counterparts, Iraqi soldiers are combing through palm groves in search of weapons caches. One vanguard unit of the new Iraqi Army, known as the Iraqi Intervention Force, is allowed to patrol the streets without Americans."

Speaking of the Iraqi Intervention Force, you can read more about them in this profile. The force is expected eventually to number 6,500 troops ready to suppress insurgency in urban areas:

Certainly, this looks more like a real Iraqi army than three previous efforts by the U.S.-led coalition that I visited over the past year. The officers have decades of experience in the old Iraqi army; many of them seem to be good leaders who try to inspire their men, rather than browbeat them. And it helps, too, that since June 28, the army has been part of a sovereign Iraqi government. The Iraqi officers can now describe [Lt. Gen. David] Petraeus and the other Americans as advisers, rather than occupiers.

Lt. Col. Ali Malekey has just arrived at the Intervention Force's training camp at Taji, just north of Baghdad. He's an enthusiastic soldier who rattles off U.S.-style statistics on his battalion's readiness: ambush preparation, 60 percent ready; convoy protection, 70 percent ready.

Malekey's most encouraging news is that many of his ex-officer friends are now asking how they can get into the new army.

Read also the story of Iraqi Second Battalion, which patrols Doura, one of Baghdad's rougher neighborhoods: "In the past people on the streets did not greet us. Now we get a good reaction. They welcome us. Maybe they are proud of us," says Maj. Mehdi Aziz. More here about the U.S. Army's efforts to build the new Iraqi army from scratch.

American civilians also are providing security training to new Iraqi authorities. Several hundred American policemen are sharing their expertise with their Iraqi counterparts--men like Chris Hurley of Shawnee, Okla., a tribal police officer and a reserve sheriff's deputy who will teach Iraqi cops more about investigating crime. The Iraqi policemen, meanwhile, continue with their jobs despite all the dangers.

As always, you can read more about Iraqi security operations at the excellent Iraq the Model blog.

The new Iraqi authorities are now also able to buy equipment freely for their armed forces, as both the U.S. and the European Union lift their long-standing arms embargo against Iraq. And the new Iraqi air force is expected to take delivery of its first two aircraft, Seabird Seeker made by a joint Jordanian-Australian venture, which will start surveillance over Iraq's oil fields.

Last but not least, "Iraq has asked the UN nuclear watchdog agency to send inspectors to conduct an inventory of the country's nuclear material, and the agency's head says UN arms experts should also return to finish their job."

Finish the job--this indeed seems to be the key phrase. Iraq, which a few decades ago had so much promise for a decent future, stagnated under Saddam. All the unfulfilled hopes of Iraqi people hibernated under the Baath Party rule; now with the tyrant removed it's time to finish the job. The coalition forces and friendly governments are still there to help, but with sovereignty now transferred, the work of building a normal country belongs increasingly to the Iraqi people.

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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:47 am
Setanta wrote:
The singular of criteria is criterion. No cigar, and not even a nice try.


I didn't know you were even from Texas.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:49 am
You'll get no credit for that lame attempt, either . . . Ican already tried it, and it didn't work for him . . .
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2004 11:52 am
Outside View: The good news from Iraq


By Bill Owens
A UPI Outside View commentary

New York, NY, Aug. 30 (UPI) -- With election season now fully begun, and the decibel level of political rhetoric at full blast, Americans cannot be blamed for not having heard some of the good news about the war in Iraq.

Thanks to the enormous efforts of the U.S. military and our coalition of allies, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi children have received immunizations and other medical care. Today, Iraqi power plants produce more electricity than before the war. And, more children are attending renovated schools and reading textbooks free of Baathist propaganda.

Oil production is up, and Iraq's currency is strengthening. On June 24, the Iraq Stock Exchange opened for business, with 589 million shares traded on opening day. The exchange operates under a new regulatory framework that puts it in line with international standards, a far cry from the cronyism and corruption that dominated the ticker tape under Saddam Hussein.

Sewage systems are in place, clean water is available to Iraqis, and many more hospitals are up and running than were under the Saddam regime. Most important, local elections have taken place all over Iraq, and the country has an interim constitution that recognizes individual rights and the enduring principles of justice and fairness. And, it bears mention that today more than 25 million people in Iraq are free from tyranny, while Saddam Hussein lives in prison.

Iraq faces many challenges still, chief among them security. That is why we must stay the course. We have brought untold benefits to the people of Iraq, but without security they cannot enjoy the fruits of democracy. President Bush -- and the brave men and women of our armed forces -- are dedicated to the cause of freedom and security in Iraq.

There are people in our nation and abroad who believe that a nation should never go to war, even when threatened. That is not the view of most Americans, and it was not the view of Democrats and Republicans alike in Congress, who voted overwhelmingly to allow the use of force against Iraq. President George W. Bush has said many times before, "War is the last resort." The United States is slow to anger. We don't pick fights with neighbors and allies. But when we are threatened, we will defend ourselves.

Defending the United States in an age of terror requires an integrated strategy that includes protecting the homeland, rooting out terrorists internationally, attacking their money supply and putting pressure on the nations that support them. This is an enormous task that requires bold and focused leadership. Bush has repeatedly proved himself to be up to the task.

As a governor, I am naturally inclined to focus on the domestic side of protecting the United States. Bush and Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge understand that homeland security is achieved on the local and state level. They have worked closely with governors, county officials, and local first responders to ensure that the needs of all 50 states are met. Thanks to their efforts, Colorado's local first responders now have access to such vital protective equipment as body armor, decontamination units and bomb robots. As a result, our counties are better protected and our citizens are safer.

Our National Guard members -- who are so important to security at home and abroad -- have received increased education assistance from the White House, so that they are better able to afford a college education. Since Sept. 11, 2001, more than 80 percent of Colorado's Army and Air National Guard have been activated. They serve with honor here at home and in Iraq and Afghanistan, where hundreds of Colorado Guard members have been deployed.

If the United States has been able to further the ideals of freedom and democracy, it is thanks to the men and women of our armed forces who best embody these ideals. They have seen firsthand the instruments of tyranny with which Saddam terrorized his people.

Since Sept. 11, the world has witnessed a bold strategy and decisive leadership. We have the terrorists on the run across the globe. President Bush held the international community, which had repeatedly and strenuously condemned Saddam's violent actions, to their word. This strategy has begun to pay dividends in other troubling countries. Libya's Moammar Gadhafi has agreed abandon his country's nuclear program. Iraq's neighbors realize that the United States is not the decadent and weak country they thought us to be.

We have taken the fight to the terrorists, where they live and train and receive aid from terror-sponsoring states. I -- and I imagine that my fellow governors would agree -- would rather that the United States fight terrorists on their turf rather than on ours.

Deposing Saddam Hussein and returning Iraq to its long-suffering people was the right thing to do. It has not been easy, and likely will not be easy for some time to come. That's because freedom and justice don't come easy. We say that they are "worth fighting for" because we know that it sometimes takes a fight to defend them.

Freedom is contagious. That's why despots fear it so much. I am confident that, in the years to come, taking up the challenge of liberating Iraq will prove worthwhile for millions of people across the Middle East and the world. I for one am glad that we undertook so noble a mission.

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