13
   

Data-Driven Predictions for the 2016 US Presidential Election

 
 
nacredambition
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Oct, 2016 11:56 pm
@rosborne979,
Quote:
Vegas Bookies predictions to be the most accurate, probably because they make (or lose) money based on their objectivity.


Bookmakers don't make predictions.

Bookmakers frame pay-out odds on the basis of the weight of money bet on each particular outcome in such a way that they secure their margin no matter who wins because the total probability weighted pay-out is less than the amount of money bet.

The odds pay-out converted to probabilities is less than 1 however we know with a probability of 1 that one of the jockeys will ride to victory on the Pegasus of democracy.

I guess you mean that the amount of money bet on a certain candidate ( as reflected in the odds on offer ) is a reasonable guide as to how the population in general will vote.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2016 11:43 am
@nacredambition,
http://www.liberalamerica.org/2016/02/01/bookies-predict-elections-w-91-accuracy-their-odds-are-on/
nacredambition
 
  0  
Reply Wed 2 Nov, 2016 12:37 am
@cicerone imposter,
I'll give you 13 to 4 journalists aren't bookies and accountants should know better.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

Obama '08? - Discussion by sozobe
Let's get rid of the Electoral College - Discussion by Robert Gentel
McCain's VP: - Discussion by Cycloptichorn
McCain is blowing his election chances. - Discussion by McGentrix
Food Stamp Turkeys - Discussion by H2O MAN
The 2008 Democrat Convention - Discussion by Lash
Snowdon is a dummy - Discussion by cicerone imposter
GAFFNEY: Whose side is Obama on? - Discussion by gungasnake
 
Copyright © 2019 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.06 seconds on 04/21/2019 at 04:19:10