Data-Driven Predictions for the 2016 US Presidential Election

Reply Mon 31 Oct, 2016 11:56 pm
Vegas Bookies predictions to be the most accurate, probably because they make (or lose) money based on their objectivity.

Bookmakers don't make predictions.

Bookmakers frame pay-out odds on the basis of the weight of money bet on each particular outcome in such a way that they secure their margin no matter who wins because the total probability weighted pay-out is less than the amount of money bet.

The odds pay-out converted to probabilities is less than 1 however we know with a probability of 1 that one of the jockeys will ride to victory on the Pegasus of democracy.

I guess you mean that the amount of money bet on a certain candidate ( as reflected in the odds on offer ) is a reasonable guide as to how the population in general will vote.
cicerone imposter
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2016 11:43 am
Reply Wed 2 Nov, 2016 12:37 am
@cicerone imposter,
I'll give you 13 to 4 journalists aren't bookies and accountants should know better.
0 Replies

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