Mon 11 Apr, 2016 09:52 pm
In the race for the Democratic nomination, Sanders is hoping to turn the momentum from his double-digit Wisconsin win into a home state victory in New York.
The trouble for Sanders is, Wisconsin is the kind of state he wins -- mostly white and independents could participate in the open primary. New York is a more diverse state, and has a closed primary -- and that’s to Clinton’s advantage. Plus, it’s been her home state more recently than Sanders.
The poll shows Clinton tops Sanders by 53-37 percent among NY likely Democratic primary voters. Another nine percent are uncommitted.
Clinton’s clearly the pick among women (61-30 percent) and non-whites (56-37 percent).Men give the edge to Sanders by just 47-43 percent.
“Sanders has a lot of work to do if he’s going to make this race a close one,” says Anderson. “He’s currently losing among every demographic group with the exception of men and voters under age 45. Many more middle-age New Yorkers are going to have to feel the Bern for Sanders to have a chance of catching Clinton.”
Young voters are Sanders’ biggest backers. He’s up by 11 points among those under 45 (52-41 percent) -- and by 30 points among the under 35 crowd (63-33 percent).
The former NY senator holds a 27-point advantage among voters 45 and over (58-31 percent).
Among those living in a union household, Clinton’s up by 49-40 percent.
She also leads among Jewish voters (59-35 percent) as well as Catholics (53-34 percent).
Regionally, Clinton dominates Sanders in New York City (+19) and is even running slightly ahead beyond the city and its suburbs.
Both Clinton (85 percent) and Sanders supporters (79 percent) have a high degree of vote certainty.
Still, one in five Sanders backers says they could change their mind (20 percent).
In my opinion Hillary will win in NYS for the following reasons:
1) Didn't Bill gain points with the Puerto Rican community at the end of his term? 2) Many Blacks will be loyal to the Clintons, as Bill is thought of as the first Black President by some in the Black community; why I don't know? 3) Females in NYS, in my opinion, often are gendercentric. 4) Bernie was the needed protagonist; however, in my opinion, he was never meant to win. All just my opinion.
Clinton will likely win NY because she is well known there and people have experience with her vs. the caricature of her and NY is a closed primary state so only registered Democrats can vote in the primary.