is this a lube job?

My guess is that you'll see the price of oil begin to fall within a week or two of the absolute defeat of Sadr and his goons. As to the DOW, I expect it'll recover somewhat on that news and moreso when the street rethinks its over-reaction to cautious outlook comments from Cisco and others.

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It's not only the **** going on in Iraq that made this oil price break records Scrat. Higher demands from especially China and the US are also a (major) cause.

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Rick d'Israeli wrote:

It's not only the **** going on in Iraq that made this oil price break records Scrat. Higher demands from especially China and the US are also a (major) cause.

Can you offer me a citation to support that claim?

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It was on the news like two days ago. Now, because everyone can make that claim though (I've learned a lot from A2K last six months), I'll try and search for a link to support what I just said.

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Quote:

Op de middellange termijn speelt vooral de sterk gestegen vraag naar olie, vooral uit China en de V.S. De hierdoor gestegen olieprijs zal de winning van extra olie - weliswaar tegen hogere winningskosten - rendabel maken zodat de schaarste verdwijnt. De oliereserves blijken nog voor tientallen jaren voldoende. De hogere winningskosten doen de olieprijs wel stijgen.

Source

Because of the fact this is in Dutch, I will try to translate it in English: 'For the medium range the growing request of especially China and the US is of importance. Due to this the oil price is growing and the extraction of extra oil - indeed with higher extraction costs - can be made profitable so that the shortage will disappear. The oil reserves will be proven to be sufficient for dozens of years. The higher extraction costs however will make the oil price to rise'.

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I just found this comment in an article:

Quote:

Though fears of supply disruptions in Iraq, the legal uncertainty surrounding Yukos, Russia's leading producer, and surging demand in China have helped push prices to one record high after another recently, the agency's report took note of increasing production in Saudi Arabia and Russia and tried to dispel concerns about a fundamental shortage of oil.

That agrees with your assertion that rising demand in China is a factor, though the same article made no claim that US demand is rising, nor did they indicate whether the rising demand was a "major" reason for the increasing price per barrel.

Anyhow, this is good information and something I didn't know before. It doesn't alter my belief that resolving the Sadr problem will cause oil prices to fall. It isn't just a matter of whether Sadr is effecting the supply; the broader issue is whether Iraq will set a standard for others to follow that actions such as Sadr's will be dealt with swiftly and with certainty. If the market believes that governments will protect the flow of oil and their oil infrastructure and refuse to allow it to be held hostage, fears will ease and the price will fall. If Iraq and the coalition continue to coddle Sadr, they will be sending a very bad message to anyone with an axe to grind who lives withing stones' throw of energy infrastructure.

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Scrat wrote:

It doesn't alter my belief that resolving the Sadr problem will cause oil prices to fall.

I didn't say I didn't agree with you Smile

I just wanted to add something to this thread.

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Scrat wrote:

My guess is that you'll see the price of oil begin to fall within a week or two of the absolute defeat of Sadr and his goons.

Have you taken a short position in the oil futures market yet? Because people there are betting that oil prices will stay up for months -- you can make lots of money if you're right.

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Thomas wrote:

Scrat wrote:
My guess is that you'll see the price of oil begin to fall within a week or two of the absolute defeat of Sadr and his goons.

Have you taken a short position in the oil futures market yet? Because people there are betting that oil prices will stay up for months -- you can make lots of money if you're right.

Point taken. Let me rephrase and say that I think that event will be pivotal in the price either falling or continuing to rise, and leave off my prognostication as to how soon after Sadr is wetvacced off the ground in Iraq the price will come down.

Of course, my uninformed gut tells me that the price of oil always rises quickly upon a causative event, and always takes its time coming down.

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Somehow I don't think the martyrdom and cannonization of Sadr is going to have a positive impact on the situation in Iraq or on the price of oil.

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There are several reasons for high gas prices that have nothing to do directly with supply of crude. I have a brother who works for Chevron in California and he has told me that the refining capacity in the US is at the moment pressed to the limit. Regardless of the price of crude US gas prices will remain high because the refineries are having problems meeting demand. Also additives that are required to reduce auto emissions are adding to the price.

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I read the same thing.

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ebrown_p wrote:

Somehow I don't think the martyrdom and cannonization of Sadr is going to have a positive impact on the situation in Iraq or on the price of oil.

I suspect you are allowing your bias to lead you to exagerate this guy's reputation in the region. Perhaps you'll miss him more than will the Iraqi's clamoring to be rid of him and his pals.

Of course, since (sadly) we seem to have agreed to talk with him rather than just kill him and be done with it (again), I suspect we'll be right back where we are now in a few weeks or months. Once Sadr is out of harm's way, I fully expect him to escalate the rhetoric and threats against Iraqis and coallition forces.

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Quote:

My guess is that you'll see the price of oil begin to fall within a week or two of the absolute defeat of Sadr and his goons. As to the DOW, I expect it'll recover somewhat on that news and moreso when the street rethinks its over-reaction to cautious outlook comments from Cisco and others.

My guess is that Sadr will last far, far longer than a week. Remember, this is the same kind of thing your ideology has been saying for months, and has it happened yet?

Cycloptichorn

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Please don't pretend to hold me accountable for what some "ideology has been saying for months". Rolling Eyes

Just hold me to account for what I write, okay?

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Acquiunk wrote:

There are several reasons for high gas prices that have nothing to do directly with supply of crude. I have a brother who works for Chevron in California and he has told me that the refining capacity in the US is at the moment pressed to the limit. Regardless of the price of crude US gas prices will remain high because the refineries are having problems meeting demand. Also additives that are required to reduce auto emissions are adding to the price.

I must be missing something. Have new guidelines or emmission laws been passed in the last few months? Are these new additives? Not doubting you, Acquiunk. It's a question that jumped into my head when I read your post. If nothing has changed why would the additives we've been having added for a while now make the price go up?

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I follow the production news lines and the chinese and Indian demands are growing and pojected to double again in the next decade. The amount of reserves are now equal to the pumping, this is a sign that the oil excess is over . Were already drilling to deeper levels in the Gulf of mexico . i think the time of the big energy transition will begin.

Add another 5 bucks a barrel dys, for the costs US incurs protecting its oil. Ive chalked that 87 billion mostly to the pice of oil security

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At least in the northeast an additive has to be added to gasoline to reduce smog during the summer, but not added during the winter. So refineries have to be reconfigured twice a year to produce the different kinds of gasoline. As a result the oil companies charge us for putting this stuff in, and then charge us for taking it out. This is really a minor cost. The major problem at the moment is that the US does not have sufficient refining capacity to meet demand,. There are not enough refineries. This keeps the price up and the bottom line of the oil conglomerates healthy.

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I guess what I was getting at is that this is not new. We have the same thing in NC, as do many states, but it has been going on for a while and therefore would not account for the current higher prices. (In other words, that cost was already tacked on at $1.35/gallon)

Fox News was just saying re: Oil Prices that the Chavez referendum in Venezuela is causing uncertainty in the oil market. That Saudi Arabia and Iran are saying there's plenty of oil and they are pumping at full production right now... Mainly to take advantage of the recent 20% increase in price per barrel. And, that now it would be good for Chavez to win since he is claimiing he can guarantee oil line protection.

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is this a lube job?

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