parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 11:52 am
@layman,
Now let me ask you a simple question, layman.

Are you seriously arguing that the earth has cooled since 2001?
layman
 
  -1  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 12:15 pm
@layman,

Quote:
Mann's hockey stick graph was NEVER peer-reviewed.


I should qualify this statement. A paper by Mann was published in Nature (which thereafter suffered an immense blow to it's reputation) and that paper was peer-reviewed. However, for many years Mann refused to provide underlying data or his "formula" (ridiculously claiming it was his "proprietary property"). It was therefore impossible to "review" that information.

As detailed in the testimony I quoted already, his report to the IPCC, as lead author, was never reviewed by anybody except himself, with final authority to exclude all papers and evidence he wanted and to include ONLY what he, and he alone, approved.
layman
 
  -2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 12:30 pm
@parados,
Quote:
So McIntyre claimed. Dozens of different temperature studies have confirmed the basic chart of Mann and shown McIntyre's argument to be pretty baseless.


Hahahaha.

So ONLY McIntyre claimed that, eh? Do you have a peer-reviewed paper which says he didn't?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 12:31 pm
@layman,
Quote:
I should qualify this statement. A paper by Mann was published in Nature (which thereafter suffered an immense blow to it's reputation) and that paper was peer-reviewed. However, for many years Mann refused to provide underlying data or his "formula" (ridiculously claiming it was his "proprietary property"). It was therefore impossible to "review" that information.


I wonder how McIntyre could write a criticism of the methods within 6 months of the paper being published then. Did McIntyre write his criticism of the methods based on not knowing the methods? It seems that is what you are arguing.
layman
 
  -1  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 12:34 pm
@parados,
Quote:
. Now let me ask you a simple question, layman.

Are you seriously arguing that the earth has cooled since 2001


My understanding is that it has been widely reported and acknowledged, finally even by the IPCC itself that surface temperatures have, contrary to the predictions of ALL IPCC models, remained flat since 2001 (and even before).

So, no, it hasn't "cooled."
layman
 
  -1  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 12:36 pm
@parados,
Quote:
I wonder how McIntyre could write a criticism of the methods within 6 months of the paper being published then. Did McIntyre write his criticism of the methods based on not knowing the methods? It seems that is what you are arguing.


If you're wondering about such things, these are thousands of online articles about it, including those referenced in the sworn testimony of lead author John Christy before congress.
layman
 
  -1  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 01:08 pm
Here's some excerpts from one (of many) summaries of the hockey stick affair. It's has links to relevant articles (including Mann's) from which it draws it's information. Anyone interested can peruse those links for themselves. It's entitled "The Rise and Fall of the Hockey Stick:"

Quote:
Above are two separate temperature reconstructions running from 1400AD, both use tree rings, one is from California and one is from Arizona. Both were were part of the data used by Mann and included in the Hockey Stick average. The top one shows a temperature up tick at the end in the 20th century like the final Hockey Stick, the other shows a relatively flat temperature for the 20th century. Mann’s statistical trick gives the top series, the one with the desired Hockey Stick shape a weighting in the data that is 390 times that of the bottom series just because it has a Hockey Stick bend at the end. This means that whatever data is fed into Mann’s statistical manipulations is almost bound to produce a Hockey Stick shape whether it is actually in the data or not.

McIntyre and McKitrick showed that the data mining procedure did not just pull out a random group of proxies, instead it pulled out a single eccentric group of bristlecone pine chronologies published by Graybill and Idso in 1993 called the Sheep Mountain series.The original authors of the bristlecone study have always stressed that these trees are not proper climate proxies, their study was not trying to do a climate reconstruction and that they were surprised that Mann included it in the Hockey Stick data set.

McIntyre and McKitrick had discovered that just removing this odd series from Mann’s proxy set and then applying Mann’s own eccentric statistical averaging caused the Hockey Stick shape to disappear....In the graph below the dotted line is the original Hockey Stick chart as published by Mann and as adopted and promoted by the IPCC.

In doing this research McIntyre and McKitrick had legitimately accessed Mann’s public college web site server in order to get a lot of the source material, and whilst doing this they found the data that provoked them to look at the bristlecone series in a folder entitled “Censored”. It seems that Mann had done this very experiment himself and discovered that the climate graph loses its hockey stick shape when the bristlecone series are removed.

Since the publication of McIntyre and McKitrick’s critique of Mann’s work there was an immediate counter attack by some climatologists who had worked closely with Mann in the past. The attack on McIntyre and McKitrick’s critique of Mann’s work really boiled down to saying that of course the Hockey Stick disappeared if you stopped using Mann’s techniques and that you should carry on using Mann’s techniques and then you could get the Hockey Stick back!


http://a-sceptical-mind.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-hockey-stick
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  -1  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 02:27 pm
A couple of more excerpts from the hockey stick history cited above:

Quote:
Until the 1990s there were many, many references in scientific and historical literature to a period labelled the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) lasting from about AD 800–1300.... Based on both temperature reconstructions using proxy measures and voluminous historical references it was accepted that the Medieval Warm Period had been a period when global temperatures were a bit hotter than today’s temperatures. Until about the mid-1990s the Medieval Warm Period was for climate researchers an undisputed fact. The existence of the Medieval Warm Period was accepted without question and noted in the first progress report of the IPCC from 1990.

The way that the Medieval Warm Period dominated the recent climate graph challenged the basic argument for CO2 forcing which was that the late 20th century climate was some how unique. As Jay Overpeck, an IPCC participant said in his email to Professor Deming, “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period”.

Between the 1995 second IPCC report and the 2001 third IPCC report there was a complete revision in the way that recent climate history was portrayed. The supporters of the theory that CO2 changes were driving temperatures up had succeeded in their goal of eliminating the Medieval Warm Period. This rewriting of climate history and the elimination of the Medieval Warm Period was achieved through the famous Hockey Stick graph.
parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 04:55 pm
@layman,
So since 7 of the 10 warmest years in the last 100 have been in the last decade and 3 of the top 5 have been in the last 5 years, you think that means we haven't warmed since 2001? What kind of trend line are you using?

Here is the data for 2001 to 2015 yearly temperature anomaly from NOAA.
0.544 0.598 0.612 0.578 0.658 0.613 0.609 0.539 0.632 0.700 0.573 0.620 0.664 0.738 0.862

I get a trend line of .15 increase over the time period using a simple linear line. That is certainly not remaining flat.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 04:57 pm
@layman,
6 years later is not within 6 months. You argued that McIntyre shows errors in the methods and data Mann used then you argued that Mann never released his methods or data. How did McIntyre show errors in method and data when he had neither? Don't you agree that you can't show any errors in something you don't have access to?
parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 05:08 pm
@layman,
Oh look. You posted that some guy on the internet says the earth is flat!!!
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  -1  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 05:23 pm
@parados,
Quote:
How did McIntyre show errors in method and data when he had neither?


I done told ya. Read up on it. Mann stalled, stonewalled, provided false data to McIntyre, said it was all available online when it wasn't, etc. McIntyre finally got enough to "reverse engineer" Mann's fraudulent shenanigans, from what I recall. The whole story goes on for years, and it's all available. Last I heard, Mann defaulted on a lawsuit he filed against Tim Ball for alleged "libel" in 2014 after continuing to refuse to reveal his complete data for legal "discovery." Enough got out to show how pathetic his methods were.

The alleged "libel" ya might ask. Ball said Mann belonged in the State Pen, not at Penn State.

Quote:
I get a trend line of .15 increase over the time period using a simple linear line. That is certainly not remaining flat


Yeah, well, you just keep on calculatin there, eh, Parry, and keep denyin what everyone else knows:

Quote:
List of excuses for ‘the pause’ in global warming is now up to 52


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/11/list-of-excuses-for-the-pause-in-global-warming-is-now-up-to-52/
parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 05:25 pm
@layman,
Really? You recall? Did you read McIntyre's paper?
layman
 
  -1  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 05:33 pm
@parados,
Quote:
Really? You recall? Did you read McIntyre's paper?


Yeah, did you?

Did you read NAS's expert testimony about Mann's paper?

Have you ever read ANYTHING on this issue which wasn't posted on an alarmist blog?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 05:34 pm
@layman,
And while we are reading, you should read the critique of McIntyre by Walsh.

http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-011-900.pdf
Quote:
reconstruc-
tion that suggest 15th century temperatures could have been as high as those of the late-20th
century are shown to be without statistical and climatological merit.



Last I heard, someone on the internet posted that McIntyre thinks the earth is flat.
layman
 
  0  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 05:57 pm
@parados,
Aw, one paper from 2007, eh? For everyone like that's probably 2 that say the opposite:

Quote:
September 11, 2013 1:19

Review of the published literature on the Medieval Warming Period in South America and finds "(1) the Medieval Warm Period was a global phenomenon that was comprised of even warmer intervals than the warmest portion of the Current Warm Period, and that (2) the greater warmth of the Medieval Warm Period occurred when there was far less CO2 in the air than there is nowadays, which facts clearly demonstrate that the planet's current - but not unprecedented - degree of warmth need not have been CO2-induced."


http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/09/11/review-paper-finds-medieval-warming-period-was-global-and-warmer-than-the-present/#ixzz3uWxKHnNp


Quote:
The Wall Street Journal
Nov. 9, 2012 10:02 p.m. ET

In 2001 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change adopted the "hockey stick" graph devised by Michael Mann at the University of Virginia and colleagues. That graph helped to persuade many people (such as me) that recent temperature rises were unprecedented in scale and speed in at least 1,400 years.

Four recent studies have now rehabilitated the MWP as a period of unusual warmth, though they disagree on whether it was as warm or warmer than today...Taken together, these studies cast doubt on the IPCC's conclusion in 2007 that "the evidence is not sufficient to support a conclusion that [Northern] hemispheric mean temperatures were as warm, or the extent of warm regions as expansive, as those in the 20th century as a whole, during any period in medieval times."


http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204349404578100862654023702

Look, reputable scientists are all over the board on these issues. As I said before, I'm not going to try to determine who's right. That's not even the point.

I have repeatedly stated why I bring up such guys as Mann, and such political issues as global warming. It's not for the purpose of trying to argue who's right.

Like I said, Parry, if that's what you're looking for go find another ideologue like yourself.
layman
 
  0  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 06:12 pm
@layman,
Quote:
List of excuses for ‘the pause’ in global warming is now up to 52

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/11/list-of-excuses-for-the-pause-in-global-warming-is-now-up-to-52/


52 different explanations for the pause in global warming, eh? I wonder which one of them is right, and which of all the remaining 51 are wrong. Or is it possible that all 52 are wrong?

Who knows? All I know is I (and independent polls) sure don't see no 97% consensus here, eh?
parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 08:13 pm
@layman,
So why didn't you find a peer reviewed paper then since it is so easy to find them? What you found was a "review" of literature self published by CO2science. That isn't actually science. It is some guy on the internet saying the earth is flat.

Quote:

Look, reputable scientists are all over the board on these issues.
Are you really saying that people that self publish instead of submitting their work for peer review are reputable scientists? No wonder you think someone on the internet saying earth is flat is reputable science.
layman
 
  -1  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 08:28 pm
@parados,
Quote:
So why didn't you find a peer reviewed paper then since it is so easy to find them? What you found was a "review" of literature self published by CO2science. That isn't actually science.


Heh, Parry, you're just proving my point. You didn't even look at it, did you? You won't even look at papers which you suspect might question your dogma. I cited that because it cites and summarizes 30-40 peer reviewed papers (and has about 50-60 references). Plenty of "peer -reviewed" science in there, but, let's face it, that aint what you're really lookin for, is it? You just want propaganda of the self-serving variety.

Quote:
“The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently.” (Nietzsche)
parados
 
  2  
Wed 16 Dec, 2015 08:54 pm
@layman,
What pause? I provided the numbers from the last 15 years and pointed out there is clearly a trend line that is going up. You provided nothing to dispute those numbers other than a bunch of people on the internet that are arguing the earth is flat.

Provide your numbers that show the temperature has been flat for the last 15 year or the last 30 years. (30 years is climate.) I notice you haven't actually provided anything in support there being no warming other than a bunch of links to non scientific posts on the internet. Basically a bunch of people on the internet saying the earth is flat.

I challenge you to go to your source. Follow the link to wood for trees, download the data and actually graph it in a spreadsheet and do a linear regression. You will find there is a trend line. It seems you are using sources that aren't using actual science or math.

One of the commenters made a graph from the data and linked to it. It looks like my graph in Excel
http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/pics/mci1995.png

Yep, no science on the site you linked to layman. There is someone lying about the actual numbers and how the math works out. Essentially, someone on the internet claiming the earth is flat.
0 Replies
 
 

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