parados
 
  3  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 09:54 pm
@layman,
Quote:
But some highly qualified climatologists argue along these lines, as I understand them:

1. Assume the temperature rises due to some factor in climate variability.
2. Higher temperatures will result in increased water evaporation.
3. Water itself is the primary "greenhouse gas," so that will result in an increased amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
4. But, at the same time, more clouds will be formed.
5. Cloud have a cooling effect because they reflect solar rays so that some of them never reach earth.
6. This will more than offset the increased greenhouse gas, and, in turn, contribute to temperatures getting lower again.


I want to address this point by point and show your errors.
1. OK. It's an assumption that we will start with.
2. Yes, that is an expected result.
3. Yes, water vapor is a green house gas and there will be more of it in the atmosphere. However you are ignoring the point of diminishing returns. Water is the most abundant green house gas. IR from the earth's surface is absorbed when it hits a water molecule. If there is currently enough water molecules in the atmosphere to absorb 95% of the IR in that range, doubling the amount of water molecules will not double the amount of IR absorbed.
4. Clouds are formed when the water in the air is cooled to the point it forms droplets. Warm air will hold more water vapor but it will also be warmer so it may be less likely to cool to the point of forming water droplets.
5. Clouds also have an insulating effect as anyone that has been outside on a clear night vs a cloudy night will be able to tell you.
6. Except your 3-5 are specious so we can't reach this conclusion.
layman
 
  -3  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 10:03 pm
@parados,
Quote:
I want to address this point by point and show your errors.


That's not really what this thread is about, but help yourself. Don't expect any responses from me, though. As I done said:

Quote:
Heh, Parry, I'm not going to try to argue the "correct" science with you. Find some other kneejerk ideologue, like yourself, if that's what you're looking for.
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  -1  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 10:08 pm
@Tuna,
Quote:
We don't know" does not translate to "There's no cause for concern."

Agree?


Sure, I agree completely. It's something that should be studied and considered in the best way we can. Increasing our knowledge (and degree of "certainty") should only be encouraged, not discouraged. But, one point to keep in mind is that politics is not science. I think we need more science and less politics with respect to climate change issues.
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  -1  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 10:21 pm
@Tuna,
One of the things I thought was worthwhile about Moore's presentation was the suggestion that more CO2 might actually be GOOD, not bad, for the climate and man's welfare. He is not alone in his views, by any means.

And, things like (there are many others) the brief excerpts from NASA I just posted also call for caution rather than panic, if you ask me. Contrary to all IPCC models (and so contrary that IPCC authors have admitted that the models have to be wrong) the temperature has been flat for about 18 years. There is no need for immediate, inadequately informed, drastic action. It might actually make things WORSE in the long run. No one seems to be able to say, IPCC claims of "settled science" notwithstanding.

Quote:
Instead, we try to predict what the temperature would be without the CO2 we have emitted. If it's warmer than that now, then that's a pretty good sign. Surely Moore knows that?


The "prediction" part is easier said than done. As I understood him, Moore accepts that perhaps much of the rise from 280 to 390 ppm of CO2 is from human causes. He does say some of it may be due to CO2 re-entering the atmosphere from the oceans via natural (non-human) causes.

He actually claims that man could be "saving" the climate as opposed to harming it. Too little CO2 and every living thing dies.
Tuna
 
  0  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 10:43 pm
@layman,
Quote:
He actually claims that man could be "saving" the climate as opposed to harming it. Too little CO2 and every living thing dies.

The part about the fungus that halted CO2 storage is interesting. But a forester told me that under normal circumstances, the average stand of pines will burn every 20 years. That makes me wonder if the fungus really saved life on earth.

If it did: hurray fungus!
layman
 
  -1  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 10:44 pm
@layman,
Quote:
It might actually make things WORSE in the long run. No one seems to be able to say, IPCC claims of "settled science" notwithstanding.


It 1995, the IPCC showed a graph with some historical climate changes. That graph showed a clear upturn (to temperatures above those of present day) for about 400 years (the "medieval warm period"), followed by a drastic downturn for about 400 years (the "little ice age"). Later their graphs were altered to "flatten out" the warm period. It undermined their claims that disaster due to global warming was imminent. As recently as 1975 some scientists were suggesting that a severe cooling period was imminent due to global cooling, and that drastic measures were called for to stave off "doom."

Scholars agree that society thrived during the medieval warm period and went relatively stagnant during the little ice age. None of this had anything to do with "fossil fuels."

If we had been there, and had the ability to stop the medieval warm period, it would NOT have led to "a better life for humans," eh?
layman
 
  -1  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 10:47 pm
@Tuna,
Quote:
But a forester told me that under normal circumstances, the average stand of pines will burn every 20 years


That could be, I dunno, but I think scientists agree that coal comes from carbon which was "sequestered" in biomass.
McGentrix
 
  -1  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 11:09 pm
@layman,
The CO2 rising in the atmosphere is obviously proven by all the lush, green foliage at the tops of mountains instead of in the valleys surrounding the mountains...

So far as I have read in this thread, Layman is the only one actually trying to forward a scientific discussion. Everyone else just seems to want to throw insults (yeah, I know, not everyone. I wasn't talking about you easily offended A2K user.) Would be neat to see some actual science refuting him.
layman
 
  -1  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 11:09 pm
@layman,
Quote:
Later their graphs were altered to "flatten out" the warm period.


As I understood it, the warm period and little ice age had long been accepted by science. When the IPCC wanted to deny it, it suddenly became a "political issue."

The following is from a scientist, quite sympathetic to IPCC claims, in 2003:

Quote:
Six hundred years ago, the world was warm. Or maybe it wasn’t. What’s the truth? Beware. This question has recently been elevated from a mere scientific quandary to one of the hot (or cold) issues of modern politics. Argue in favor of the wrong answer and you risk being branded a liberal alarmist or a conservative Neanderthal. Or you might lose your job.

Six editors recently resigned from the journal Climate Research because of this issue. Their crime: publishing the article “Proxy Climatic and Environmental Changes of the Past 1,000 Years,” by W. Soon and S. Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics....the Soon and Baliunas situation different is that their paper attracted enormous attention. And that’s because it threw doubt on the hockey stick.

Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects on global climate. I would love to believe that the results of Mann et al. are correct, and that the last few years have been the warmest in a millennium.

Love to believe? My own words make me shudder. They trigger my scientist’s instinct for caution. When a conclusion is attractive, I am tempted to lower my standards, to do shoddy work. When the conclusions are attractive, we must be extra cautious. The public debate does not make that easy.


http://www.technologyreview.com/news/402357/medieval-global-warming/

I think most people know that the "hockey stick" graph has since been thoroughly discredited. This guy was correct in trying to put aside his "desires" and approach the topic with a more objective, scientific scrutiny. Too bad that more don't do that today.
layman
 
  -1  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 11:35 pm
@McGentrix,
Quote:
Would be neat to see some actual science refuting him.


Well, Gent, as I've said, I don't really see myself as dispensing "actual science" here, nor do I have any desire to debate what the "correct science" is. I think far too many laymen fall into that trap when they don't have the expertise to know the difference--they just have strong ideological convictions in many cases.

As I understand it, this thread is more for the purpose of discussing attacks on science as opposed to resolving the issue of what the "true" science is. I brought up global warming as an example, because I think it is a great one for demonstrating how unscientific notions can affect what one believes is the "true" science. They are times when "science" is not nearly as objective as people like to think it is.

It is the long running claim of "settled science," and the "virtually all scientists agree," claim that strike me as most suspect. I don't buy it, nor do many others (including IPCC lead writers) as far as I can tell. That's not how science is even supposed to work.

In the long run, I think the public just loses more and more faith in scientists by seeing the types of "debates" which the climate change issue generates, the dubious claims made by each side in an attempt to advance their agenda, the ad hom and otherwise sophistic "arguments" advanced, etc.
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  0  
Sun 13 Dec, 2015 11:52 pm
@layman,
Quote:
I think most people know that the "hockey stick" graph has since been thoroughly discredited.


But not before years of acrimonious "debates" between the true believers and the skeptics went on in public. It all brings to mind something Hume once said, to wit:

Quote:
“Disputes between men pertinaciously obstinate in their principles are the most irksome. The same blind adherence to their own arguments is to be expected in both; the same contempt of their antagonists; and the same passionate vehemence in enforcing sophistry and falsehood, and as reasoning is not the source from whence either disputant derives his tenets, it is in vain to expect that any logic, which speaks not to the affections, will ever engage him to embrace sounder principles.”

0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  2  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 01:01 am
Alright so after the disapointment of Copenhagen in 2009 (?), the COP 21 in Paris yielded an agreement signed by all countries except north corea. Some here say Fabius (Fr. min. of foreign affairs) deserves a "Nobel price for diplomacy" but that the agreed text has no teeth whatsoever...

layman
 
  -2  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 01:30 am
@Olivier5,
Jimbo aint happy, which suits me just fine.

Quote:
Professor James Hansen, a leading climate scientist has denounced the Paris climate change agreement as a “fraud” - saying there is "no action, just promises." [Hansen claimed that] "the talks that culminated in a deal on Saturday were just “worthless words."

He said: “It’s just b******t for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”


http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/cop21-father-of-climate-change-awareness-james-hansen-denounces-paris-agreement-as-a-fraud-a6771171.html

Well, OK, then!
layman
 
  -1  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 01:41 am
Quote:
If a group of senators gets its way, any commitments President Obama makes at the Paris climate summit will be put to a congressional test. If given the opportunity, the Republican-led Senate would almost undoubtedly reject such a deal.

President Obama doesn’t plan to give it the chance. Whatever agreement emerges from Paris, he has no intention of submitting it to the Senate for ratification as a treaty. The administration argues that any agreement does not bind the United States to a course of action.

There are disadvantages to that approach: a new president could back away from the Obama climate plan. A treaty would bind all future presidents to comply with it.

“Every state controls whether that state is a party to a binding agreement, and in each case, that state’s intent controls,” said Michael Glennon, a professor of international law at the Fletcher School at Tufts University and a former Senate Foreign Relations Committee counsel. “The key word is intent: If the U.S. doesn’t intend to enter into a binding agreement and makes that intent explicit, then there will be no binding agreement that obliges the United States to do anything as a matter of law.”

“The bottom line is it’s not going to be a treaty,” Bledsoe said. “The United States is not going to agree to anything that requires Senate confirmation. And that’s that.”


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/11/30/trick-or-treaty-the-legal-question-hanging-over-the-paris-climate-change-conference/

Well, it was a good "show," anyway, eh? Obama promised to "do something" about the climate, and he can at least give the superficial appearance of having kept his promise this way. If Jimmy Hansen don't like fraud, well, that's his problem, I figure.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  2  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 02:04 am
So our grand children are gona fry in hell. Rejoice!
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  2  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 02:11 am
I wouldn't call it an attack so much as selective, willful ignorance:

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2015/01/americans-believe-in-science-just-not-its-findings/384937/

Quote:

Americans Believe in Science, Just Not Its Findings
What's behind the "debate" over issues like climate change and vaccination? Can evidence change people's minds?


A new report by the Pew Research Center found that 79 percent of the 2,000 adults surveyed think science has “made life easier for most people.” Seventy-one percent think that investment in science ultimately pays off.

But on certain hot-button scientific topics of our day, Pew found wide gaps between what the public believes, and what scientists believe. You can probably guess which ones.

Genetically modified foods: 88 percent of scientists say they’re "generally safe" to eat; 37 percent of the public agrees.

Vaccines: 86 percent of scientists believe they should be required in childhood, compared to 68 percent of the public.

Climate change: 94 percent of scientists say it’s a “very serious" or "somewhat serious" problem; 65 percent of the public agrees. 87 percent of scientists blame humans; 50 percent of the public does too.

Evolution: 98 percent of scientists say they believe humans evolved over time, compared to 65 percent of the public.

There were also large disparities on issues like whether it’s safe to eat foods grown with pesticides (scientists: 68 percent; public: 28 percent), and whether the world’s growing population will be a problem (scientists: 82 percent; public: 59 percent).
...
Olivier5
 
  3  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 03:05 am
@FBM,
It was a concerted attack, well funded by oil corporations, that managed to confuse the debate for a couple of decades.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 03:35 am
@McGentrix,
Parados has addressed his claims point by point, and Parados is not given to name-calling. I guess people see what they want to see.

I pointed out his use of an ad populum fallacy, in response to which he indulged in name-calling. That's what ya call irony, in terms of what you're claiming.
layman
 
  -1  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 05:23 am
@Setanta,
Quote:
I guess people see what they want to see.


That may be the truest thing you've ever said. Nice that you recognize it, eh?

Quote:
I pointed out his use of an ad populum fallacy.

Heh.

1. You can't "point out" something that never occurred
2. Nor can you "point out" something when you don't even understand it's meaning.

Ollie made an ad populum appeal, and a wholly erroneous one at that, when he claimed that no reputable scientist disagreed with the IPCC position. I merely responded by referring him to a (very limited) list of reputable scientists who did just that.

But beyond that, I invited him to read some of the reference papers cited there, for substance. Of course he didn't, nor did you.

What you did do, without saying a single thing of substance, as is your standard M.O., was try to insinuate that you were qualified to call distinguished scientists "fools."

What's that called? An "argumentum ex megalomania?"

Quote:
Parados has addressed his claims point by point


As for Parry, he didn't address many arguments that I was making at all. To the extent he did, he was just wrong.

Quote:
he indulged in name-calling


I called you a blowhard, which you are. Your standard method of acting like you're saying something while saying nothing substantial by way of fallacious sophistry is well-documented. It's a form of fallacy which I call "argumentum ex blowhardium," eh?

I asked you a question then. Did you read a single one of the papers you tried to call "foolish?" Then, as now, you don't answer the question. You just keep blowing hard, eh?

Get over yourself, Blowhard. Your vacuous assertions are neither meaningful nor significant.

Quote:
Layman is the only one actually trying to forward a scientific discussion. Everyone else just seems to want to throw insults...


He had your number, sho nuff.
Setanta
 
  3  
Mon 14 Dec, 2015 05:32 am
You don't seem to have a very good memory, Stepin Fetchit. You babbled on about 60 alleged scientists and their papers--that's an ad populum fallacy, of the "snob appeal" variety. I have no idea what Olive Tree has been arguing with you about, because i don't read his posts. You also asked me in a snotty manner if i had read their papers, which i don't need to do in order spot your "snob appeal" variety ad populum fallacy. Did you read them? I wouldn't believe you if you claimed you had. You've trashed this thread with you idiotic denial of reputable scientific work, and i suspect that in large measure you're just motivated by knee-jerk conservatism. That's common with holy rollers like you. It didn't take you long in this thread to descend to vicious personal attacks of those who dare to disagree with you. There is a great deal of irony in you describing anyone else as "blowhard."
 

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