layman
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 07:50 pm
@hawkeye10,
The lead writers of these IPCC propaganda compositions TELL you that they're worthless. That they make no predictions WHATSOEVER, and are hence non-falsifiable.

No probabilities even.

No guesses.

NOTHING.

It's like a carny game. You can tell a kid a million times that it's rigged, but he won't believe you because he wants to win a teddy bear.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 07:55 pm
@layman,
Quote:
It's like a carny game.

Almost a complete duplicate of how Wall Street became a sleazy Las Vegas style casino, but these leftists wedded to their fantasies and more importantly their dreams of creating a better human by force, aided by the American Government which they corrupted can never figure this out.

It is damn depressing. Then they give the Right lectures on intelligence, and how the Right allegedly has none, which is ******* hilarious.
0 Replies
 
Tuna
 
  1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 09:35 pm
@layman,
Quote:
The lead writers of these IPCC propaganda compositions TELL you that they're worthless. That they make no predictions WHATSOEVER, and are hence non-falsifiable.

No probabilities even.

No guesses.

NOTHING.

The IPCC assessment isn't nothing. It says that according to the experts on the subject, the earth's climate is warmer now than it would be without man-made contributions. We heated up the atmosphere. We're messing with the weather.

Have there been some who grossly overstated what we know and prematurely cast the whole thing in apocalyptic terms? Definitely. And they shouldn't have done that. They let their emotions get the best of them. It happens.

My experience of the whole thing is that there were speculations about anthropogenic global warming back in the early 80's. It was a theme in science fiction. Notice how the movie Bladerunner is dark and rainy? That's why. That's what people thought back then: that a thick cloud cover would develop with lots of rain.

Since the 80's, climatology has developed in leaps and bounds. It's amazing how much more we understand in just a few short years. It sort of spun my head around that all of the sudden everybody knows about global warming. But what I've seen is that critical details don't make their way to the headlines: like the fact that the IPCC assessment isn't the meat and potatoes of the issue. It's just affirming what anybody who understands how the greenhouse effect works would suspect.

The IPCC confirms that it's not science fiction. We actually are messing with the weather.







layman
 
  -2  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 09:44 pm
@Tuna,
Quote:
The IPCC assessment isn't nothing. It says that according to the experts on the subject, the earth's climate is warmer now than it would be without man-made contributions.


That's not really saying much either, of course, but that wasn't my point.

That particular statement which I quoted has been pasted here repeatedly to "prove" what "all" scientists believe. It don't say sheeit. EVERBODY believes that climate change (notice it doesn't say "warming" or "greenhouse gases" or anything at all, really) has risks for humans. Isn't there an ice age predicted for sometime in the next 20,000 years, for example?
layman
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 09:45 pm
@Tuna,
But, Tuna, since you re-posted my entire post, do you disagree with what I said about IPCC lead writers, etc.?
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 09:53 pm
@Tuna,
Just to be clear, nothing I've said here was directed at the issue of global warming per se. That IS a scientific issue.

I've been addressing ideology masquerading as science, the sophistic employment of so-called "science," the ease with which people can be manipulated if the magic word "science" is thrown in, and that type of thing, ya know?
layman
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 10:10 pm
This was in 2009. I think the IPCC has since conceded (and already had, really) that their models are virtually worthless.

Quote:
Forecasting Guru Announces: “no scientific basis for forecasting climate”

Today yet another scientist has come forward with a press release saying that not only did their audit of IPCC forecasting procedures and found that they “violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting”, but that “The models were not intended as forecasting models and they have not been validated for that purpose.” This organization should know, they certify forecasters for many disciplines and in conjunction with John Hopkins University if Washington, DC, offer a Certificate of Forecasting Practice.

YESTERDAY, a former chief at NASA, Dr John S. Theon, slammed the computer models used to determine future climate claiming they are not scientific in part because the modellers have “resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists”.

Today, a founder of the International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, and International Symposium on Forecasting, Dr J. Scott Armstrong, tabled a statement declaring that the forecasting process used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lacks a scientific basis.

We conducted an audit of the procedures described in the IPCC report and found that they clearly violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting (Green and Armstrong 2008). (No justification was provided for any of these violations.) For important forecasts, we can see no reason why any principle should be violated.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/28/forecasting-guru-announces-no-scientific-basis-for-forecasting-climate/

There's a lot more detail at that site. "Science" with "no scientific basis?" How does that work, exactly?

0 Replies
 
Tuna
 
  2  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 10:12 pm
@layman,
Quote:
Isn't there an ice age predicted for sometime in the next 20,000 years, for example?

In contemporary science lingo, we're in an ice age. The climate undulates back and forth between glacial and interglacial periods. We're presently at the end of an interglacial period. All of known human history is within this interglacial.

The next glacial period could start between 1-3 thousand years from now. When scientists first began to realize this, one or two of them freaked out and started trying to raise awareness of the threat.

What becomes apparent when you look into it is that human history has been blessed with an unusually stable weather pattern. We look out at the world and think this is the way it's always been. We don't realize how fast and how radically the climate can change because it hasn't demonstrated this as far back as we can remember as a species.



0 Replies
 
Tuna
 
  1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 10:17 pm
@layman,
Quote:
Just to be clear, nothing I've said here was directed at the issue of global warming per se. That IS a scientific issue.

I've been addressing ideology masquerading as science, the sophistic employment of so-called "science," the ease with which people can be manipulated if the magic word "science" is thrown in, and that type of thing, ya know?

Scientism is fueled by passion. Talking to a proponent of scientism is like arguing with someone who believes that God Almighty came down from heaven to save us from his own wrath by allowing himself to be tortured to death.

Remember what you said about who is really in charge in human life? It's passion.



layman
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 10:24 pm
Where do these "statements of agreement" even come from?

Quote:
In an open letter to the president and officers of the American Physical Society (APS), three prominent members – Roger Cohen, APS fellow; Laurence I. Gould, past-chair of APS New England; and William Happer, a Princeton physicist – argue APS should shelve its 2007 statement on climate change and should not replace it. The members wrote the open letter on behalf of nearly 300 members who signed petitions against the statement in 2009 and 2010.

Cohen, Gould, and Happer argue APS’s climate change statement places the society in the untenable position of defending arguments for human-caused climate change not supported by the best available evidence. They also charge APS’s Panel on Public Affairs (POPA) with ongoing violations of APS by-laws that require expert input and mandate the organization avoid conflicts of interests.

Instead of securing experts’ input on climate science within the society, the three write, “a small group of firebrand” members with clear conflicts of interest and little expertise in the topic inserted themselves into the drafting process, ultimately shaping APS’s statement with the evident acquiescence of POPA and the APS council.


http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2015/06/05/members-say-american-physical-society-violated-bylaws

Quote:
“The APS issue goes deeper than what is right or wrong in climate science,” Cohen, a distinguished fellow of the Society, told me. “It goes to the integrity of the science process and the trust invested in our scientific institutions. The question at hand is whether science is worthy of the trust the public once conferred upon it, or whether it is just another special interest.”
Tuna
 
  0  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 10:43 pm
@layman,
Quote:
Where do these "statements of agreement" even come from?

Two points:

1. There are no climatologists who deny that an increase in the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere should result in an increase in the mean temperature of the earth's atmosphere.

2. There is probably no science that deals with more variables than climatology, thus the use of computer models.

You're calling upon people to stop being bound by ideology. The number one best way to do that is collect facts.

I told ja, man. David Archer.



layman
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 10:44 pm
@Tuna,
Quote:
Talking to a proponent of scientism is like arguing with someone who believes that God Almighty came down from heaven to save us from his own wrath by allowing himself to be tortured to death.


True dat!
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 10:46 pm
@Tuna,
Super. If humans stopped producing CO2 tomorrow what year does the earths temp peak? What temp is the peak?

I won't bother asking any questions more complicated since I know you don't have the answers.
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 10:48 pm
@Tuna,
Quote:
1. There are no climatologists who deny that an increase in the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere should result in an increase in the mean temperature of the earth's atmosphere.


I wouldn't be at all sure about that. I think they probably all agree that increased greenhouse gases have a "warming effect." But that hardly proves that the "mean temperature" will increase. There are countless other variables which could create an offsetting (or superseding) lowering of the mean temperature, from what I understand.

I mean, like, if I meet you at the corner to collect the $10 you owe me while you send a homey of yours to steal the $1000 I got hid in my mattress, then, while it's true that the $10 increased my "wealth," ya can't really say I came out ahead on the deal, ya know?
layman
 
  -1  
Sat 5 Dec, 2015 11:08 pm
@layman,
Last I heard, the IPCC had, for 17 straight years, "predicted" an increase in mean temperatures. And, for 17 straight years, their predictions were just plumb wrong.

Sumthin like that. What's that tellya about their "models," eh?
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Sun 6 Dec, 2015 02:59 am
Report: Climate changing more rapidly than at any point on record

Global warming 'hiatus' never happened, Stanford scientists say

Science Challenges Claim That Global Warming Took a Hiatus

"Global Warming Has Stopped"? How to Fool People Using "Cherry-Picked" Climate Data

Study Finds No Pause in Global Warming

The last two articles, from Forbes magazine and The Wall Street Journal are included in case someone tries that hilarious bullsh*t claim that the "mainstream media" is controlled by leftists.

I really should abandon this thread now that the loonies are running riot, but it would be irresponsible not to rebut their horseshit.
FBM
 
  3  
Sun 6 Dec, 2015 03:20 am
@Setanta,
It has been all but a wingnut echo chamber in here for a while, hasn't it? http://i206.photobucket.com/albums/bb192/DinahFyre/emot-tinfoil.gif
Setanta
 
  1  
Sun 6 Dec, 2015 03:23 am
@FBM,
Yeah, that and Max's obsessive hatred.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Sun 6 Dec, 2015 03:23 am
@layman,
Quote:


Quote:

Yeah! By a 189-1 vote, no less! Based on what, though? Let me look again...git back to ya on that next post.

Nobody seriously disagrees with human induced global warming now, not even to paid-for US government. You are all alone, lay... Even your handlers know better than that.
layman
 
  -1  
Sun 6 Dec, 2015 03:48 am
@Olivier5,
Quote:
Nobody seriously disagrees with human induced global warming now, not even to paid-for US government. You are all alone, lay... Even your handlers know better than that.


This statement shows that you don't even understand my point, Ollie, and it does not in any way respond to the quote of mine which you associated with it.

But, tell me. You say: "human induced global warming"

What do you mean by that? Why do you think anybody "disagrees" with it?
0 Replies
 
 

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