@Foofie,
Foofie wrote:Well, those nations in the middle east that think that Iran having nuclear weapons would be an existential threat might just circle the wagons (aka, mutual defense treaties)? So, this might not be a prelude to what occurred prior to WWII, but a prelude to what occurred prior to WWI?
It is unlikely that Iran will be allowed to make a nuclear bomb. It is virtually certain that NATO will bomb them first. And if NATO somehow refuses, it is virtually certain that Israel will do it.
But if Iran did somehow manage to avoid being bombed and acquired nuclear weapons, the next step would be to see if the world (including Russia and China) wished to preserve the NPT. If they do, Iran will be crushed by overwhelming sanctions until they give up their nukes.
If the NPT is abandoned, then the US will be free to transfer nuclear weapons technology to our allies. Various countries neighboring Russia and China would likely be very interested in possessing American-designed thermonuclear warheads. Poland and Georgia, for instance. Also South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia.
I suspect that when they consider the consequences of the NPT failing, Russia and China will decide to sacrifice Iran.