32
   

Intelligent Design vs. Casino Universe

 
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2015 03:28 am
@Herald,
SSDD. More shitty reading comprehension skills, compensated for by another list of offerings of red herring. No, thanks. I have communicated my position clearly. Your non sequitur hasn't changed, I see. That my understanding of the DETAILS of the physics does not entail that I "don't understand anything" about it. I've had a couple of years of physics classes, but what's really relevant is that I understand the LOGICAL PROCESS by which that knowledge was derived. You, obviously, don't.

The Standard Model, while incomplete, has overwhelming empirical support, has been independently verified over and over again by experimentation and observation. It explains, predicts and is confirmed. By your estimation, it explains 4% of the known universe.

In contrast, you have zero empirical support for your alternative hypothesis, have not even described it in a coherent way, and what you have claimed depends fundamentally on logical fallacies. It does not explain, nor predict, nor can it be confirmed or falsified or tested in any way. I could make up a story about extraterrestrial earthworms telepathically communicating with dildos to control the minds or women, who in turn convince men to produce a fake science. It would still have equal weight as your alien/god/ILF/Big Bang (which never happened)/Standard Model (which is wrong) hypothesis, because no evidence is required to state or believe in either one. Ho hum. The only limit is your imagination.

Comparing the relative strengths of the two, your score is still zero. No points awarded for self-aggrandizing fantasies, seeing as how you still don't have that Nobel Prize. Laughing

4:0
Herald
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2015 05:38 am
@FBM,
FBM wrote:
... but what's really relevant is that I understand the LOGICAL PROCESS by which that knowledge was derived.
     Beyond any doubt - do you want here some of your personal quotes?
Quote:
That's one of several possible definitions. Be careful around dictionaries, Herod. You're not very good with them.
     When making a formal model in math logic for example (that you understand so well as a 'logical process') you don't use definitions from the dictionaries. The key phrase here is: "you don't use", and do you know why? It doesn't matter how much good or not very good with the dictionaries you may be - all that matters is to have good & unique semantics for the concepts within the scope of the formal model that will make no contradictions in the logic. Without that you cannot construct the formal model (the theory) at all, let alone 'to understand the logical process by which that knowledge' has been acquired.
     Can you explain how exactly you will understand the process of knowledge acquisition (of space expansion on the grounds of observed red shift in light), when you don't know almost anything about them both (Space and Light, for we are not talking about Time yet).
     How will you verify the correctness of the concepts (that they really are the representation of the events & phenomena from the real world for which they claim to be)? Before proceeding to the 'process', perhaps you should make an assessment of whether you are dealing with authentic knowledge or with something else, presenting itself as knowledge. If you can't use a piece of knowledge in peace with the other pieces of knowledge that you might already have (if you have any) you cannot call it knowledge - it remains some text, with or without some semantics, but could not be called knowledge yet.
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2015 06:15 am
@Herald,
Well. let's see. Someone observes a phenomenon and they want to understand why it happened. So they make a guess. Then they test their guess with an experiment. When the guess is wrong, they give priority to the observed data, rather than the guess, no matter how good it feels. They modify their guess and share their findings with others, who can run the same experiment and share their results. Hypotheses become more sophisticated and accurate over time due to the natural learning process.

The alternative is to find a story that makes you feel good, then work your ass off trying to discredit anything that doesn't agree with it. Evidence isn't necessary; only rhetoric is needed. It doesn't matter how fallacioius it is; the only important thing is that it's convincing.

Problem is, Herod, your rhetoric isn't convincing. The rest of us know how to do logic. You don't. Your ass is swinging in the breeze until you figure out how to support your "personal 45% god/alien/ILF/different ILF/Big Bang/Standard Model" smorgasbord with something substantial. Until then:

4:0

You still got nuthin'.
Herald
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2015 11:23 am
@FBM,
FBM wrote:
So they make a guess. Then they test their guess with an experiment.
     ... and where is the experiment - of any Big Bang creating 3D space & Time out of Nothing and out of Nowhere?
FBM wrote:
When the guess is wrong, they give priority to the observed data, rather than the guess, no matter how good it feels.
     What happens when the approach itself for the interpretation of the observations is wrong ... from the very beginning? When the approach defines in the formal model some concepts like Infinite Temperature, Infinite Gravity, Existence out of Time without having an idea of what their physical interpretation might be ... and whether all that is possible to exist at all, or not. Can you give an example in the real world of a physical carrier that has the capacity of bear Infinite Temperature for one Planck time? Do you have that example, or not?
     O.K. You have two hypotheses: 'the Universe might have been created by what/whomsoever' OR 'the Universe might have always existed': How do you make the choice which of them is 'the better' choice ... without even having defined what 'better' is supposed to mean?
FBM wrote:
The alternative is to find a story that makes you feel good, then work your ass off trying to discredit anything that doesn't agree with it.
     ... and the alternative of all alternatives is to make all the plausible hypotheses at first and to start verifying & validating them with something different from the presumptions on the grounds of which they have been derived. Let's have the following four initial hypotheses for the Big Bang 'theory': 1. The Universe has always existed; 2. The Universe has been created by some meta-intelligence; 3. The Universe has been created by stochastics; & 4. The Universe is a result of something else that we might never get knowing.
FBM wrote:
Problem is, Herod, your rhetoric isn't convincing.
     ... and your problem is that you present the 'reasonable ground to believe' as 'rhetoric' - in our region this is called justification. I don't want to convince you in anything, just tell me what are your personal definitions in your personal understanding of the Big Bang 'theory' for: Infinite Temperature, Infinite Gravitation, Appear out of Nowhere; Exist out of Time; Create 3D-space out of Nothing, etc. ... and how do you verify the physical equations in terms of the dimensions, for example: on the one side you have Nothing [] - no dimensions, and on the other side you have Infinite Energy [ten trillion trillion teraJoules] ... not to mention that before coming up to the 'ten trillion trillion' teraJouls you will have to find the material carrier of the 'ten trillion trillion' degrees Celsius - haven't you ever verified the dimensions of a physical equation?
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2015 03:33 pm
@Herald,
There's tons and tons of experimental evidence to support the Standard Model. It's there, but you're too steeped in your denialism to acknowledge it. I've brought all of it I'm going to to this discussion. You can deny the sun is shining while you're getting a sunburn. You really should see a mental health professional, assuming you're not already posting from a ward. You're too in love with your imaginary, absurdly irrational, muddled and self-contradictory "personal god/alien/ILF/Big Bang (even though it didn't happen)/Standard Model (even though it's completely false" belief.

However, in the interest of fairness, I continue to invite you to present a hypothesis that is comparably robust as that for the Standard Model. Until you do, the score remains:

4:0
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2015 04:31 pm
It's aliens what done it!

FBM
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2015 05:40 pm
Family relationship???? Laughing

0 Replies
 
Herald
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2015 09:34 pm
@FBM,
FBM wrote:
There's tons and tons of experimental evidence to support the Standard Model.
     This is nothing but general talk - moreover too general. Where are your lab experiments and math inferences, proving that:
     1. The Big Bang possesses the ability to launch the Time out of Nothing and out of Nowhere;
     2. The Big Bang has the capacity to create 3D space out of no Time & out of whatever else ... that you will have to prove that could have existed without Time;
     3. The Big Bang and the red shift have any correlation at all, justified by physical interpretation;
     4. The Big Bang has disposed a priori with all that energy (no matter the form), required for the creation and for the maintaining subsequently in operation of the Universe;
     5. The Big Bang is in any correlation with the CMB, and that correlation has physical interpretation in the real world;
     6. The Big Bang has ever existed or is existing and there has ever been anything happening in connection with it;
    7. The Univrse 'is expanding' (and your room is expanding and your laptop is expanding, etc.) - not only on the grounds of the measurements of red shift in light, but this can be observed with other emissions, of other particles as well; ... and also that the light could be subject to the Doppler effect at all;
     8. The Big Bang in the capacity of being absolute stochastics, has been able to acquire, to manage, to control and to handle all that Information, necessary for the structuring of the Universe; ... and how will that happen without any Intelligence; meta-Intelligence; ILF or ID of any kind? Can you give an example in the real world of a control system without any Information ... performing the control just so, on the grounds of some stochastics?
     From where automatically follows that the score becomes: 4:8
Quehoniaomath
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 01:02 am
@FBM,
Quote:
It's aliens what done it!



Actually, You are rather close, but not there yet!B

But of course you are way too intelligent to think out of the box! Right? Wink
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 07:21 am
@Herald,
I've linked you to all the evidence you need. Your denialism of science is not support for your "personal 45% god/alien/ILF/Big Bang (which didn't happen, although you give it 25% faith anyway)/Standard Model (which is wrong, although you illogically give it the same 25% that you gave the Big Bang)-of-the-gaps. Your fallacious insistence that the incompleteness of the Standard Model somehow supports your wingnut fantasy is precisely proof of the god-of-the-gaps fallacy.

You've got no evidence to support your "personal 45%," it explains not even 1% of observed phenomena, predicts nothing, can't be tested, it's contradictory and fallacious. You've got nothing.

4:0
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 07:23 am
@Herald,
*cough*

Herald wrote:

... my personal are God or some meta-intelligence [Which? Those are different things, as evidenced by your choice of the disjunctive "or."] (string theory [String Theory is not a meta-intelligence being. It's a physical theory, 100% man-made] or s.th. ["s.th."? What? You don't even have a word for it? Then how can you give it the 45% possibility of being responsible for the universe if you can't even identify it? You've named four different CONTRADICTORY possiblilities that you're giving 45% faith to. And you think this **** is a "validly plausible" as the Standard Model? I'll say one thing, it's as "validly plausible" as the Scientology you seem to admire.]; 30% another ILF [Why "another ILF"? Why not the "meta-intelligence you included in the 45% part?], sending the designs on the Earth even through some form of teleportation or another form of encoded communication (it might have extinct already by the time the information has came here)[Cool story, bruh. Very L. Ron Hubbard-ish. Problem is...evidence. Got any?], and perhaps 25% of the Big Bang [Which you have repeatedly denied ever happened, and yet give 25% credit to? Puh-lease.] and the theory that we are made out of star dust (whatever this might mean)[It means the Standard Model, which you have also subsequently argued to be trash. Make up your mind. Does it share 25% credibility along with the Big Bang (which you also deny) or is it a profoundly flawed product of a scientific conspiracy?] and fused with the time by the Dark Energy and Dark Matter.[This just does not make any logical sense. What is "fused with 'the' time" and how did Dark Energy and Dark Matter do this? What are you even talking about? How can you give 25% to it/them, then deny that it/they ever happened?]
...
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 07:35 am
Feb. 10. Hmmm. Pretty recent...http://i206.photobucket.com/albums/bb192/DinahFyre/teaemoticonbygmintyfresxa4.gif

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/planck-upholds-standard-cosmology-0210201523/#sthash.zg3G9YTG.dpuf


Quote:
Planck Upholds Standard Cosmology
By: Camille M. Carlisle | February 10, 2015


The Planck team has finally released its full-mission data, revealing a remarkably detailed view of our universe and our galaxy.

The moment I’ve been waiting months for is finally here: the full-mission data from ESA’s Planck satellite are public. Scientists presented the results at a Planck conference in Ferrara, Italy, in December, but the official analysis papers are only now coming out. Most were posted on the Planck Publications website on February 5th, with a few stragglers still in the wings.

Planck polarization and temperature maps
Planck's full-mission data, released in February 2015, provide a breathtakingly precise map of the polarization (top) and temperature (bottom, with scale in kelvin) patterns in the cosmic microwave background.
Credit: Planck Collaboration
Planck launched in 2009 to study the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the relic radiation from the universe’s birth. Density fluctuations in the universe’s earliest moment spawned the splotchy pattern we see in the CMB and, in turn, served as seeds for the growth of cosmic structure. Understanding why the CMB looks the way it does therefore helps us understand the entire universe (more on that later).

Observing in nine frequencies spanning 30 to 857 GHz, Planck mapped the CMB’s temperature and (in seven frequencies) polarization, with angular resolutions between 33 and 5 arcminutes, depending on the frequency. It shut down on schedule four years later in 2013.

The team released the temperature observations from the mission’s first 15 months in 2013. These data were mostly in beautiful agreement with the predictions of the standard cosmological model. Since then, the team has been working fiendishly to analyze the full, four-year data set.

How Astronomers Find the Universe in the CMB

Planck power spectrum
The strength of temperature variations (vertical) is plotted against their angular sizes (horizontal, approximate). The red line is the standard cosmological model, the blue dots are Planck data.
Credit: Planck Collaboration
This endeavor is a challenging one, explains Planck team member Charles Lawrence (JPL). Cosmologists start with the splotchy CMB pattern. From that they calculate what’s called the power spectrum, which reveals the strength of the CMB’s fluctuations at different angular scales. (The power spectrum is the wiggly graph at right.) The power spectrum is the cornerstone of the whole effort: it’s this statistical map that cosmologists base their CMB analysis on.

The cosmologists then make some assumptions about what kind of universe they’re dealing with — in astrospeak, they assume the standard lambda-CDM model, which includes (1) a particular solution to the general relativistic equations of gravity, (2) a universe that looks basically the same on large scales and is expanding, (3) an early period of stupendous expansion called inflation, and (4) quantum fluctuations that seeded today’s large-scale matter distribution.

From there, they start tweaking the assumptions, like a dressmaker tucking and letting out a dress pattern until it fits right. They could even chuck any assumption that proves to be bad. Eventually, they find the pattern that most successfully fits the CMB.

The amazing thing is, this method works. It works really well. That’s because back when the universe cooled down enough to become transparent to the CMB’s radiation (about 380,000 after the Big Bang), the universe was simple. By simple, I mean the universe was basically a hot, bland soup of particles and dark matter and there weren’t any chemical reactions going on. So scientists can actually figure out, to very high precision, the exact setup that would create the CMB we observe.

The Punchline: Planck’s Cosmology Results

Milky Way Galaxy
This composite map of the Milky Way Galaxy from the Planck mission combines several types of emission: synchrotron (from charged particles corkscrewing in magnetic fields), free-free (from electrons scattering off ions), spinning dust, and warm dust. Planck scientists must subtract out all galactic emission in order to see the cosmic microwave background.
Credit: Planck Collaboration
For those of us who have been impatiently squirming for the Planck team to finish this herculean task, the new data deluge justifies the wait. These data are gorgeous. Like, disgustingly gorgeous. Even the foreground maps, which include things that sullied Planck’s view of the CMB (such as our galaxy’s dusty disk), are exquisite.

The 2015 release upholds that of 2013, with only slight tweaks to various cosmological parameters. It still overwhelmingly favors an early universe defined entirely by six parameters, no matter how many ways the team pushed and prodded the data. These parameters are

The density of baryonic matter (a.k.a. normal, like you and me) in the first few minutes of the universe
The density of cold dark matter at that same time
How far sound waves had traveled when the CMB photons were released — also known as the “sound horizon” or the size of baryon acoustic oscillations
The fraction of CMB photons over the universe’s history that have scattered off particles set free by radiation from stars/quasars ionizing the neutral hydrogen filling the cosmos
How the strength of the density fluctuations on various scales at the end of inflation changes with scale
The slope of #5 when plotted as a spectrum
From these, the team can calculate just about anything you please, such as the universe’s age and its expansion rate. The exact values depend on which data subsets you want to include, but here are some notable ones from the team’s overview paper:

Age of universe: 13.799 +/- 0.038 billion years (note: that means we know the age of the universe to within 38 million years. Just think about that for a second)
Hubble parameter: 67.8 +/- 0.9 km/s/megaparsec (this is the universe’s rate of expansion, more on this in a minute)
Fraction of universe’s content that is “dark energy”: 69.2 +/- 1.2%
The So What

The latest Planck data say some interesting things about the universe. For one, the universe’s expansion rate, called the Hubble parameter, is still lower than what astronomers previously calculated using supernovae (about 73 km/s/Mpc). That was a surprise in the 2013 release, and it’s still odd. Several other measurements have also been pushing the Hubble constant down, so it looks like a lower expansion rate is here to stay. Maybe there’s some new physical ingredient at work, but we don’t know yet.

In the discussion of what dark matter is, one idea is that it’s its own antiparticle and so if two of its particles collide, they’ll go poof. There’s no sign of dark matter annihilation in the physics needed to explain the CMB observations, although Planck does leave the door open for the level of annihilation suggested as an explanation for diffuse gamma-ray emission from the Milky Way’s center. And it looks like there are definitely only 3 flavors of neutrino (in case you were still holding out hope).

There’s still the strange problem of the missing galaxy clusters. The Planck team finds a certain lumpiness in the CMB, which should match up with the lumps in the distribution of matter in the universe (a.k.a. cosmic structure, which is made up of galaxy clusters). But Planck predicts about 2.5 times more clusters than are actually observed. This could be due to error in the estimates from either side, or due to new physics.

One neat result is that the era of reionization — basically, when the universe’s galaxies really started lighting up with stars — is later than estimated using data from Planck’s predecessor, WMAP. WMAP had favored reionization at a redshift of 10 (470 million years after the Big Bang), but Planck pegs it at 8.8 (560 million years after the Big Bang).

“For many cosmologists, I would say that it is a relief,” says David Spergel (Princeton), who worked on the WMAP team. Scientists studying early star formation had a hard time explaining the earlier start time from WMAP, so a slightly later start is a good thing.

Then there are the implications for inflation. No. 5 in the list of parameters (how the strength of the density fluctuations changes with angular scale), is called ns, or the scalar spectral index. It’s important because it describes the state of affairs at the end of inflation, and the fluctuations it measures are the ones that started sound waves sloshing in the universe’s primordial plasma and ultimately led to the CMB we see. Planck finds a value of 0.968, which means that the strength of the fluctuations is slightly larger on larger scales—predicted by most inflation models. This offset has a slight effect on galaxies’ formation rate over time.

The Planck team also did its own analysis of how big any gravitational waves triggered by inflation would be in their data, an analysis separate from (but including the data of) the joint analysis done with the BICEP2/Keck Array folks. The team found an upper limit on the ratio of gravitational waves’ strength to the density fluctuations’ strength of 0.08, slightly lower than the one from the joint analysis (0.12) and the Planck 2013 analysis (0.11).

These results home in on some of the simpler types of inflation. (Take a look at the number of inflation models out there.) These involve an inflation spawned by the decay of a single energy field, a field that decreased slowly compared to the universe’s expansion rate. (Given that the observable universe expanded at least 5 billion trillion times in 10 nano-nano-nano-nanoseconds, that’s not that slow.) The energy scale implied for inflation is less than 2 x 1016 gigaelectron volts, on par with the level expected for the merger of the strong, weak, and electromagnetic forces into one (called the Grand Unified Theory). Physicists think these forces were united in the first mini-moment of the universe, then broke apart. Their breakup might somehow be connected to inflation.

0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 08:35 am
Another example of how science works. It builds on previous work, rather than throwing the baby out with the bath water and grasping at whatever feel-good fantasy is floating around at every sign of difficulty:

0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 09:51 am
@Herald,
Herald wrote:

FBM wrote:
There's tons and tons of experimental evidence to support the Standard Model.
     This is nothing but general talk - moreover too general. Where are your lab experiments and math inferences, proving that:
     1. The Big Bang possesses the ability to launch the Time out of Nothing and out of Nowhere;
     2. The Big Bang has the capacity to create 3D space out of no Time & out of whatever else ... that you will have to prove that could have existed without Time;
     3. The Big Bang and the red shift have any correlation at all, justified by physical interpretation;
     4. The Big Bang has disposed a priori with all that energy (no matter the form), required for the creation and for the maintaining subsequently in operation of the Universe;
     5. The Big Bang is in any correlation with the CMB, and that correlation has physical interpretation in the real world;
     6. The Big Bang has ever existed or is existing and there has ever been anything happening in connection with it;
    7. The Univrse 'is expanding' (and your room is expanding and your laptop is expanding, etc.) - not only on the grounds of the measurements of red shift in light, but this can be observed with other emissions, of other particles as well; ... and also that the light could be subject to the Doppler effect at all;
     8. The Big Bang in the capacity of being absolute stochastics, has been able to acquire, to manage, to control and to handle all that Information, necessary for the structuring of the Universe; ... and how will that happen without any Intelligence; meta-Intelligence; ILF or ID of any kind? Can you give an example in the real world of a control system without any Information ... performing the control just so, on the grounds of some stochastics?
     From where automatically follows that the score becomes: 4:8


FBM wrote:

*cough*

Herald wrote:

... my personal ... and perhaps 25% of the Big Bang and the theory that we are made out of star dust ...


So...You're giving 25% credibility to something that you simultaneously claim is false. Interesting. http://i206.photobucket.com/albums/bb192/DinahFyre/hehe.gif
Quehoniaomath
 
  0  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 10:41 am
@FBM,
Quote:
There's tons and tons of experimental evidence to support the Standard Model.


You are getting more crazy by the day!

You are showing an extreme lack of critical and logical thinking and the ONLY thing you do is show things that seem to support the more then ridiculous standardmodel. In reality the standard model has more holes in it then swiss cheese!!! But you are too blind to see it!

0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 12:20 pm
@Herald,
Quote:
8. The Big Bang in the capacity of being absolute stochastics, has been able to acquire, to manage, to control and to handle all that Information, necessary for the structuring of the Universe; ... and how will that happen without any Intelligence; meta-Intelligence; ILF or ID of any kind?

Really? Stochastics actually proves the complete opposite of your claim.
The likelihood of that happening without any intelligence is 1. With all the possible outcomes one must be achieved. Arguing that the one that was achieved couldn't have happened is ridiculous and shows you don't understand "stochastics" at all.
Herald
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 01:32 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:
Really? Stochastics actually proves the complete opposite of your claim.
     How?
parados wrote:
Arguing that the one that was achieved couldn't have happened is ridiculous and shows you don't understand "stochastics" at all.
     You have not a single piece of verifiable evidence that it has been 'achieved' in the way that you are claiming it has been. How exactly could the stochastics of the Casino create the rules of conduct in the saloon?
Herald
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 01:36 pm
@FBM,
FBM wrote:
So...You're giving 25% credibility to something that you simultaneously claim is false. Interesting.
     What is so interesting: 1) 25% credibility is actually False 2) as a matter of fact this hypotheses really cannot be excluded 100% ... with the present-day (lack of) knowledge. I don't see anything so interesting here. What is so interesting to you?
parados
 
  2  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 02:03 pm
@Herald,
Let's make this simple.
Suppose the universe is a billion sided die. Roll that die and tell us what the likelihood of an outcome is. Now compare the likelihood of an outcome to the likelihood of a single outcome.

The likelihood of an outcome when rolling a die is 1 in 1. The likelihood of rolling the number 7 is 1 in 1,000,000,000. To argue that the outcome couldn't happen because the chances of it happening are astronomical is ludicrous. The simple fact that there must be an outcome says there will be an outcome. It is a misuse of statistics to argue that the outcome couldn't have happened because the odds are too big.
Quehoniaomath
 
  0  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2015 02:16 pm
@parados,
Quote:
The likelihood of an outcome when rolling a die is 1 in 1. The likelihood of rolling the number 7 is 1 in 1,000,000,000. To argue that the outcome couldn't happen because the chances of it happening are astronomical is ludicrous. The simple fact that there must be an outcome says there will be an outcome. It is a misuse of statistics to argue that the outcome couldn't have happened because the odds are too big.


Oh my god!!!





Please look up "Circular reasoning" and when you are at it start some study on logic! Don't try probability!!!!! Please!!!
 

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