Tarantulas wrote:As for what kind of government they will have, I thought it was supposed to be a democracy.
Yes, we know thats what you thought.....which is why several people have pointed out why you're wrong. What do you think the result would be if democratic elections were held?
If elections were held, Sistani would likely poll more than anyone else, or rather, whomever would be the candidate to whom he would give his approval. The Shiites are the absolute majority, but they are sufficiently split that it is not certain that a Sistani-approved candidate would poll an absolute majority. All of this is, of course, on an assumption the the elections could proceed in a fair and verifiable manner, without internal or external interference. Leaving aside such a dubious proposition for now, and simply looking at the reality of the divisions within the society, an American style democracy, dependent upon an absolute majority is unlikely to be feasible. A British style of parliamentary government, with a government formed from a coalition might be possible, although any coalition which one might propose could be formed would also be a dubious proposition, given the depth of division between Sunni, Shiite and Kurd, and within each of those groups.
But the question of the mechanics of such an election is begged in such an analysis, because it assumes that an election could proceed without interference from without or within which would effectively kill the putative mandate. When the Turks administered the area during the days of the Osmanli empire, they were not so clueless as to think that they could make these people live together peacefully. The "barque of state" in Iraq will always wreck on the simple fact that it is, as a nation, an artificial construct of Balfour and Churchill which was created without reference to the realities of tribalism, sectarianism and ethnic suspicion and hatred which exist today as much as in 1922. I personally think the prospects are bleak for stable, independent government any time in the foreseeable future. The Shiite majority are the only possibility of forming absolute majority government, and they may be fatally divided; coalition parliamentary government is unlikely (although not necessarily impossible) given the atmosphere of mistrust among all concerned.
