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Wed 31 Mar, 2004 10:40 am
This will be an interesting website to watch as the campaigns continue.
http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/
Current status:
Bush 222, Kerry 178
I was reading something about the colors, that supposedly the news organizations coordinated during the last election so the incumbent was in blue and the challenger was in red. So now the incumbent Republicans are blue instead of red.
Here's another website, looks like a place where you can bet on different things.
http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Quote:State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 92.0 9 0
Alaska 93.0 3 0
Arizona 74.0 10 0
Arkansas 67.5 6 0
California 17.5 0 55
Colorado 79.0 9 0
Connecticut 14.0 0 7
Delaware 29.0 0 3
District of Columbia 1.0 0 3
Florida 61.0 27 0
Georgia 90.0 15 0
Hawaii 12.5 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 18.0 0 21
Indiana 87.5 11 0
Iowa 42.0 0 7
Kansas 92.5 6 0
Kentucky 86.5 8 0
Louisiana 83.5 9 0
Maine 22.5 0 4
Maryland 17.5 0 10
Massachusetts 4.0 0 12
Michigan 47.0 0 17
Minnesota 43.0 0 10
Mississippi 92.5 6 0
Missouri 66.0 11 0
Montana 91.0 3 0
Nebraska 95.0 5 0
Nevada 68.0 5 0
New Hampshire 65.0 4 0
New Jersey 17.5 0 15
New Mexico 57.0 5 0
New York 13.0 0 31
North Carolina 84.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 58.0 20 0
Oklahoma 95.0 7 0
Oregon 40.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 55.0 21 0
Rhode Island 4.0 0 4
South Carolina 86.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 81.8 11 0
Texas 94.0 34 0
Utah 96.0 5 0
Vermont 8.0 0 3
Virginia 88.5 13 0
Washington 33.0 0 11
West Virginia 53.0 5 0
Wisconsin 47.0 0 10
Wyoming 96.0 3 0
Totals 304 234
Thanks for the reference to my site.
The color thing predates 2000, so it was not accurate to say that the media coordinated before 2000 to come up with that standard. It was just the way things were done for a long time. It is now likely that, due to the focus on "Red states" versus "Blue states", the media will abandon the old tradition.
However, I'm going to keep it.
Also, if you go to Dave Leip's awesome site Atlas of Presidential Elections, he has always used blue for Republicans and red for Democrats.
Thanks,
Gerry
Cute. Bookmark.
Note to self:
here's the "classic" version, which purely goes on the last poll.
Dales, how nice of the "author" to check in himself. Welcome.
Do you use all polls you can get your hands on, or do you apply any limitations?
How do you find and keep track of all these polls, some for quite far-flung states?
I keep track of them in a database that I constructed to help me keep track of them.
I find them about half by searching and about half by having people who know that I track these things notifying me about them when they see them.
I generally use whatever I find, as long as I can verify that the poll exists and that the polling company exists. On the main page, I will tend to exercise some judgement on how much credence I put in any given poll based on my experience. Basically, I list 'em all (that I know about) and I categorize the state based on what the numbers in aggregate tell me, even if what they tell me doesn't mesh with what I think. The "about" page describes how I do go about slotting the states.
On the 'classic' side, I just go with the most recent, period (unless multiple polls came out for the same 'most recent' timeframe). This tends to be a bit more volitile, and in my estimation a bit less accurate. The upside to it, though, is that any biases that exist in it are not mine, but rather those inherent in whichever polls happen to be the most recent for a given state.
Thanks
Thanks.
I'm a big fan of pollingreport.com myself, but if you want their state-by-state polls, you have to pay ...
(I'm not paying
Dales, welcome and thanks for your input and the pretty map (although everything east of NY state got cropped out). At least on my printer.
Your methodology for breaking down the states seems to be fair. I look forward to seeing updates.
Going by the relationship of Dale's 2000 projections to the actual outcome of the 2000 contest, it would appear the methodology employed has significant predictive value, exhibiting both a smaller MOE and a lower mean deviation than that of any of the individual polls used to develop the series. While it must be borne in mind crunch time is a half year away, it is, as comes I'm sure as no surprise to most here, still and firmly my impression the Dems have little to cheer about. Neither does it appear they have any cause to expect improvement of prospect given the focus of their campaign efforts. Kerry, IMO, likely is destined to do in November what Clark and Dean managed as ultimate achievements for themselves in the Primary Contest.
Oh, and hey, Dales, welcome to A2K. Glad you found us. Quick question ... I assume you're familiar with Ray Fair's work in the Presidential Election Prediction arena ... what's your take on that?
"I look forward to seeing updates."
I post updates whenever polls come out. From this time of year, that usually means every day or every other day at worst. I also do a weekly summary and article which I post on Wednesdays (generally some time after work).
Thanks
I readily concede that I am a Democrat, very eager to see Mr Bush defeated.
I'm looking not at the pretty map that Dales provided but at the page that puts the states in various columns: For Mr Kerry= Safe, Strong or Leaning and for Mr Bush=Safe, Strong, Leaning or Slight. In the middle are the toss-up states.
Mr Kerry has to choose a running mate. historically, I am told, it doesn't make a big difference. But it could this time.
If he chose Graham from FL for example, would that move 27 votes into his Lean category? If he chose Mr Edwards, would that move the 15 from NC and perhaps the 8 from SC to his side?
Mention was made today that the Gov of my state of VA, a moderate Dem in a conservative state, may be on the short list. Mark Warner is no relation to our senior Senator, John Warner. That would probably move VA from the leaning towards Bush into the leaning towards Kerry columns'
Pretty fascinating, isn't it?
-rjb-
Re: Electoral College Breakdown 2004
Current status:
Bush 211, Kerry 202
Bush 248, Kerry 234 with Tossups.
If you use the "classic" version, which purely goes on the last poll, you get:
Current status:
Bush 196, Kerry 189
Bush 250,
Kerry 282 with Tossups.
In both versions, Ohio is now in the "Lean/Kerry" column and New Hampshire in the "Slight/Kerry" column. On the other hand, Oregon and Michigan are both respectively in the neutral and "Slight/Bush" columns.
David Wissing's
Hedgehog Report also has state-by-state polling numbers.
Good. I was beginning to wonder what had happened to nimh.
I'm alive.
How's things here?
A bit grainy this past few weeks, needless to say. It will pass.
"How's things here?" nimh asked, probably referring to A2K rather then the USofA.
The war in Iraq? It's still distant. 800 US soldiers killed? That's less than two per state. The cost so far seems to be palatable in the "war against terrorism."
The alleged prison abuse? Big news on the talk shows but not on Main Street.
This whole election is going to come down to the economy of the US (in my opinion). There have been some pretty good numbers in the last month or so re employment. Points for Mr Bush.
But the price of gasoline is soaring, interest rates are rising and have you been to the grocery store lately? No points for either of them.
Ohio and Michigan are big right now.
Yeh, I was asking bout A2K rather than the USA, of course. The States, grainy, yes ... I can imagine.
On the "bright" side, some stuff isnt as bad as its made out to be - relatively, anyway. For example. Kerry campaigns on the loss of "3 million jobs" over the past four years, right? Whereas opponents claim its only 1,5 million. But thats on a population of some ... 300 million?
In Holland, we've lost 200,000 jobs in two years - on a population of 15 million. Four times as bad ... <sighs>
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