@Shadow X,
Shadow X wrote:
What was wrong with my math?
You say that 27% of all
victims of pedophiles are male, and then conclude that 27% of all
pedophiles are gay men. That's clearly erroneous. If 90% of all murder victims are killed by men, would you conclude that 90% of all men are murderers? Well, maybe
you would, but you shouldn't.
I think you arrived at that flawed conclusion by assuming that there's a one-to-one correspondence between pedophiles and victims. That's another error. You can't assume that the percentage of victims in a population is the same as the percentage of perpetrators in a population, even if those populations are the same size - which they aren't. According to your source - and it's not at all clear (see page 1) - the sample size of victims was either 60,991 or 57,762 or 118,753. Let's say its the last one, and let's assume that the sample, drawn from twelve states, is a representative sampling of the entire US, such that the total national population of victims would be approximately four times as many, or roughly 475,000. If 27% of them are male, then about 128,000 victims are male.
You assume that only male pedophiles sexually assault male victims (a bad assumption, but one that we won't get into) and that male pedophiles who assault male victims are, by definition, homosexual (another bad assumption, but we'll pass over that one as well). You then multiply the number of pedophiles by 27% to arrive at the number of gay male pedophiles. That yields, according to your calculations, "2,559,600 homosexual pedophiles."
If those numbers are correct, then there are approximately twenty gay male pedophiles for every one male victim. That's an astonishing figure. One wonders where those victims find the time to do anything else, what with all the constant victimizing that must be going on. Perhaps the twenty pedophiles work in shifts, or maybe take a number like in a deli. The mind staggers at the complexities.
Your result is staggering largely because it's wrong. As pointed out above, your basic math is wrong. In addition, your assumption about the percentage of the population that is composed of pedophiles is based on the work of
Michael Seto, who argues that about 3% of the population is sexually attracted to children. That's not the same thing, however, as saying that 3% of the population
sexually assaults children, which is what you want it to say. As you put it: "Approximately 3-5% of the population are
child molestors according to this article." I very much doubt that the article says that, but then I very much doubt that you read that article.
So, let's recap:
You say that 3% of the population is composed of child molesters. That's wrong.
You say that 27% of child victims of sexual assault are males. That's true, but only for victims under 12 (it's 18% for all juvenile victims). You don't define "child victims," so I'll just assume you're consistent with your source in limiting it to victims under 12.
You assume that 100% of all perpetrators of sexual assault against child victims are men. That's not true (according to your linked source it's 96%), but I'll give you that one because 96% is pretty close.
Based on the above, you conclude that 27% of all pedophiles are homosexual males. That's neither supported by your sources nor by the math nor by basic logic. It's outrageously wrong.
Once you've arrived at your outrageously wrong calculation of the number of homosexual pedophiles, you then calculated the percentage of homosexuals who are pedophiles. Clearly, that's outrageously wrong as well.
Like I said, math is hard.