@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:I think this shows that bad oral arguments don't necessarily lose cases.
Maybe not bad
oral arguments, but definitely bad arguments. The worst part of Verilli's performance was that he had no answer to the strongest Commerce-Clause challenge. He had no argument that clearing Obamacare under the Commerce Clause would not create unlimited federal powers. It now seems that the weakness of Verilli's oral argument goes back to his brief, and that it did cause Roberts to strike down the Commerce-Clause justification.
Chief justice Roberts, on page 27 of his opinion, wrote:The Government argues that the individual mandate can be sustained as a sort of exception to this rule [that Congress can't create commerce in order to regulate it], because health insurance is a unique product. According to the Government, upholding the individual mandate would not justify mandatory purchases of items such as cars or broccoli because, as the Government puts it, “[h]ealth insurance is not purchased for its own sake like a car or broccoli; it is a means of financing healthcare consumption and covering universal risks.” Reply Brief for United States 19. But cars and broccoli are no more purchased for their “own sake” than health insurance. They are purchased to cover the need for transportation and food.
Any health care economist could have told Verilli's team what the real distinction is: Unlike a failure to buy cars or broccoli, failure to buy health insurance makes health care less accessible to those who want it. That's a substantial effect on interstate commerce (certainly greater than growing corn for your own cows) that certainly justifies regulation. Apparently Verilli never consulted any health care economists.
When Obamacare was first challenged about two years ago, I thought the lawsuits were spurious. I still do, and I still find it hard to believe that Obamacare only made it by the skin of its teeth.