@maxdancona,
sry i thought i got it , but are you sure that the formaula provided at
http://www.pokerjunkie.com/icm-explaining-the-independent-chip-model => P(A3) = P(A3|B2)*P(B2) + P(A3|C2)*P(C2) + P(A3|D2)*P(D2) is correct ?
im sitting here since 3 hours :/
ill give you my calculations for player a
A 6737 chips 1st= 0.49 2nd=0.37
B 185 chips 1st= 0.01 2nd=0.02
C 1347 chips 1st= 0.09 2nd=0.16
D 5231 chips 1st=0.38 2nd=0.43
the calculation above is correct, i verfied these number with a working icm calculator.
Player A:
( (6737 / 8079) * (6737 / 11968) )* 0.02 +
( (6737 / 6922) * (6737 / 11968) )* 0.16 +
( (6737 / 6922) * (6737 / 8079) )* 0.43
= 0.4487 => which is wrong
the correct result should be 0.11
:/