@failures art,
failures art wrote:
Robert Gentel wrote:
failures art wrote:I've not commented on your "tone," but to the accuracy of your claim for which you authoritatively assert via "in reality." I specifically called for you to support your claim, but your response was:
Quote:What are you on about? Specifically.
Actually, I told you to read what I had already said about it instead of asking me to type it again.
No, Robert. You did not.
http://able2know.org/topic/181356-5#post-4823943
And as soon as you let me know what you are on about I will answer that question. It made absolutely no sense to me (
literally, I am not saying it's a poor argument I'm saying it is Greek to me).
Quote:I asked you where you got your read on the American perception, not where you got your math. I don't disagree with your math.
From dozens of discussions with I have held with relatively well-informed Americans who had no idea that Obama dramatically increased the drone killings and from discussion with people like you in which there is clearly a case of information asymmetry (regardless of whether you smart at me saying so) and from its absence from the zeitgeist and vox populi.
Most people are just not as interested in following covert warfare and as interested in knowing the minutiae of such kind of tradecraft, and the US government itself has often refused to acknowledge events or even lied about them. In my experience few people, even among new hounds, follow it as closely and this leads me to believe that the general populace is far less informed about it than am I.
But whatever the case, this is still an entirely pointless line of questioning you pursue, that seeks to indict my elitist notions and does nothing at all to address anything of substance that I argue.
Yes, I think even people who are much more informed than the average (like yourself) tend to follow this much less closely and comparatively not really have any idea what is going on other than the vague notion that drones are being used in the regions. If your point is that I'm an arrogant know-it-all (or wannabe, if you will) then I'm guilty as charged but this has no real bearing on any of my arguments. I stand by what I said, the majority of Americans (yourself included until this thread) had no real idea what the scale or nature of these operations are but whether or not that is true doesn't change anything about my position does it?
Quote:Robert Gentel wrote:
Quote:I think it's far too easy to summarize the American mentality toward the death toll as a git-er-dun shoot-em-up on terrorists.
Then don't put those words in my mouth.
You're putting words in the mouth of; thoughts in the heads of Americans by asserting what the public perception is. Come off it.
Poppycock. I have
not misrepresented American perception on this issue, and if you'd like to conduct a scientific survey to test this then I will reimburse you for it if it shows me to have misrepresented the average American perception.
The majority of Americans are simply not paying attention to this and only know superficially about the drone attacks and have no idea about the scale and target selection (even the most well informed people have to deal with the fog of covert warfare).
Quote:You opened the jar on public perception. You argument against drones employed the strawman that American's perceived these attacks as hitting terrorists set on attacking the USA (Read: If they knew they weren't they'd believe as you do). That is a strawman: Attributing a mentality to a whole group that is easily rationally defeated rather than addressing a more scattered landscape of mentalities that is not so simple.
This word "strawman", I don't think it means what you seem to think it does. I'd need to have actually misrepresented the perceptions of the American public to have erected one.
Quote:Robert Gentel wrote:
Quote:Further, the idea that the Taliban/Al Qaeda makes up less than 10% of the casualties....
Let's just stop right there.
I did not make this claim. You are distorting the claim I did make (by including Taliban, who are insurgents to our invasion).
If you distort the claim I made in this way, it is much easier to argue against it but the intellectually honest thing to do is argue against what I actually said.
Here is what you said:
Robert Gentel wrote:You can just use basic math to realize that the overwhelming majority (well over 90%) of the people we are killing there are simply fighting our invasion and were not trying to kill us in the first place.
You: 90% of the people we are killing aren't Taliban/AQ
Me: 10% of the deaths are the Taliban/AQ
Your inability to demonstrate basic reading comprehension is frustrating. I very clearly said to you, even in the portion of my reply that you quote, that the Taliban
are the insurgents I am claiming we are killing in AQ's stead. You persists in ignorantly grouping them both when I was drawing a distinction
between them.
Quote:I'm not sure I agree. The tactical commander, we agree on, so we'll move on from that. The strategic commander has a much harder time. Let's say the SC wants to find the best road out of there. Is there a greater strategic fallout if they hit a group, or if they elect not to? What makes it easier to sell the case to come home? Moreover, can you describe a situation where not acting on intel of a threat would be strategically to the advantage? So if a TC says they know of 3 high interest areas, what is the case for the SC to say, don't fire. If one of those groups acts out a local attack, the political ramifications will make for a harder exit strategy don't you agree? Isn't that the exact rationale that is advanced by many hawks in congress to support that there is still a threat in these areas--that the threat is demonstrated by successful attacks?
Could you reword this to ask a coherent question? I earnestly tried to decipher this rambling but really have no idea what you are on about. I told you my qualms were not tactical, but strategic. Do you understand the difference?
I'm saying that Obama should have made the decision to start to withdraw earlier than next year. What tactical commanders do prior to that decision is a natural consequence of his failure to do so and I do not fault the tactics they must employ because it's not up to them when they can stop killing the Taliban and insurgents, it's up to Obama.
Quote:Okay. Fair play. Tell me then, what would be a good strategy.
Since we started talking about this some of it has actually inched forward. The US introduced a couple of moratoriums on the drone strikes (after killing a bunch of Pakistani soliders and getting kicked out of the airbase they were using and having supply lines to Iraq cut by Pakistan) and have targeted the Taliban less since (the strikes since then that I know about have actually largely been relatively high-value AQ targets). We have also allowed the Taliban to open an office in Qatar and have begun negotiations with them elsewhere, already offering to release their leader from Gitmo as a gesture of goodwill within the last two weeks.
Basically the sane strategy right now is to stop fighting the Taliban and make peace, and it's a strategy the US will pursue more aggressively next year (it won't happen in this election year but will accelerate dramatically next year) and one that has begun and has accelerated since we started talking.
Simply put I'm getting what I wanted next year, but when we started talking it was scheduled for 2014 or later and I am arguing that next year is about two years late.
Quote:Show some examples of other countries using such a strategy...
Like some other country fighting some other war somewhere? How many such wars do you think I can call on? This is a daft question, but how about France telling NATO they want out earlier than NATO had planned and announcing that they are pulling their troops about 10 days ago? Britain too plans to get out next year. How about the Panetta himself spilling the beans that we are accelerating our withdrawal to 2013 (before the administration walked it back slightly)?
Anyone following this at all should realize that every single participant thinks NATO should cut their losses and have been openly planning for the end of our war with the Taliban at the table. That's why it doesn't make sense to vigorously prosecute the war against the Taliban this year (and why it has already been winding down in that regard since we started this discussion).
Quote:and tell me why you think such a strategy would be applicable and could be adapted to our own military strategy.
I don't know how you manage to ask such pointless questions with such remarkable consistency but I'll try to humor you.
Basically, I think we should have drawn down the war 2 years ago. I'll leave you to figure out how to "adapt" that into American military strategy (but here's a hint, it largely revolves around the notion that what we are going to do next year should have come billions of dollars and hundreds of lives earlier).
If that concept is ambiguous to you I'll just have to live with failing to have communicated successfully with you.
Your suggestions are tangential and nonsensical. Things like the draft make precious little sense when it comes to this war, and I can't imagine why you think they should be the kind of discussion this is about.
The crux of the issue is that everyone involved knows we are have decided to cut our losses, and I am arguing that we are wasting blood and treasure while acclimating ourselves to the idea. What on earth that has to do with your suggestions is something I can't figure out and perhaps you could explain if you want better critiques that I have the patience for.
I'll try one last time: I think we should have started the withdrawal that will start next year 2 years ago. Get it yet?
Quote:Robert Gentel wrote:
I have already told you that if you put me in the hypothetical shoes of a military commander in the battlefield that killing these people makes perfect sense. But this has no bearing on whether it makes sense for the military to be in that battlefield.
If we're talking about active military theaters like Iraq or Afghanistan, it's too late, we're there.
Jesus, you get me to wonder if I'm the one daft and just not understanding you. Of course we are there, I am arguing for us to get out more quickly
What on earth do you mean? You don't know that we could... leave? War doesn't
have to be indefinite, you know.
Quote:Robert Gentel wrote:
Quote:So no, I'm not concerned with your style. I'm concerned with your content.
Then try to understand it better than you do.
Stop being so reflexive. I absolutely desire to understand your point. I have no desire to misrepresent you.
I have never ever seen someone of your intelligence have so hard a time understanding such basic arguments ("we should leave earlier"). Excuse me if I seem baffled but it almost seems like talking to someone about football who is responding about basketball. I have not been able to identify a single coherent point in any of your posts here and am frustrated by the exchanges.
Quote:Vapid? Would that be commentary on my tone or my style?
No, I am not saying your arguments have vapid
tone, I am saying your arguments have vapid
substance. You go on and on about me mischaracterizing the American public's knowledge and perceptions when they are largely irrelevant to what I want to discuss and really have nothing else of substance to disagree with me on.
Quote:You find my post incoherent? So do you think I don't have a point, or that it is not being communicated?
I can't make it any more obvious that I think your arguments here have been
entirely pointless, if I allude to the possibility of miscommunication it's usually just a pleasantry that I am indulging in but if you want me to speak plainly then, yes, I think you are rambling without a point.
Quote:Well, we can both make declarations on what is a well made argument, but that wouldn't get us very far. You've failed to convince me about what I've challenged you on, does that make your argument poor?
No, and neither does your failure to convince
me make
your arguments poor, the lack of any point does that.
Quote:I'm sure it more likely means that there is something wrong with me.
Finally some common ground!
Quote: You're dictating terms, and it seems more important to you, so have at it.
I'm not "dictating" anything, I'm just telling you that I think your arguments are remarkably similar to an unsharpened pencil. You can do with that whatever you wish.
Quote:Fair enough. I stand corrected. No harm in admitting that. If you say you don't believe as much, I'll take you at your word.
Cool, let's see if you can go back and figure out the AQ/Taliban misrepresentation too. That one is more important to the discussion.
Quote:Confused? About what exactly?
Most of what you said here really doesn't make sense to me, and not in the "I don't agree and find it nonsensical" way but in the "what is he even trying to say" way.
But if you want a specific example how about explaining how America having a draft has anything at all to do with my argument that we should be drawing down this war.
Like I said, I don't think you've made a
single relevant or coherent point so take your pick. If you can identify a cogent point you made against my core position (that we should be spilling less blood in this war and winding it down earlier) I will acknowledge it.
Quote:I've little of actual disagreement with you. I do however think you employed a rather poor argument using what you projected as American sentiment/perception.
That's fine, but that's about as far as you've gotten (merely expressing that you find it poor) on that tangential argument and you've done nothing to either substantiate your gainsay of it or even tie it in any meaningful way to an opposition to my position. It's basically a complaint that I give the American public short shrift and about that I will have to respectfully disagree yet again, and point out yet again that my perception about the American public being right or wrong doesn't say anything about my core position.
If you want to test this just pretend I agree with you, now what? How does that do anything to indict the core of my argument?
Quote:This is significant to me because when discussing the use of drones (but not exclusively), saying that 10% of the victims aren't terrorists implies that the other other 90% are not of legitimate concern.
No it doesn't. Just because I don't think we should still be killing the Taliban doesn't mean I don't think they are a legitimate concern. In fact I believe precisely the opposite (as do all belligerents in this war) that the Taliban is not going anywhere and that at some point we are going to need to cut a deal with them.
I am saying that the majority of the people we were killing this year are the type of people we are now trying to bring to the negotiation table and find a political solution with.
Quote:You seemingly acknowledged this problem via the Tactical Commander scenario. In a question of whether or not we agree with Obama's decision to use this method, and even use it more heavily, making such an point seems to suggest that 90% of our kills from drones have nothing to do with mission objectives because Taliban/AQ are the only threat we face.
I'm gonna talk to you like 2-year old because you keep reading like one.
I am asserting that most of our kills are insurgents (INCLUDING THE TALIBAN). I do not view the Taliban as a group that needs to be defeated and neither do any of the participants in the war, each and every one currently support a negotiated peace with them and the other insurgents.
Get it? Stop grouping AQ with the Taliban, it demonstrates both a complete ignorance of the theater we are talking about as well as a maddening refusal to acknowledge my repeated correction of this grouping you made.
Quote:I think people understand that not all insurgents are Taliban/AQ, and the soldiers over there know this as well.
Jesus.
AQ: terrorists who attacked us
Taliban: the majority of the insurgents
Get it? You keep grouping the Taliban and AQ ignorantly, the Taliban long has had no use for AQ (who have been decimated to as low as 40 members in their country by some estimates and who are no longer strategically useful to them) and I keep trying to tell you that the Taliban is the very people I am saying we should NOT be targeting anymore (especially with the whole trying to bring them to the negotiating table part).
Quote: I don't think the use of such weapons/tactics hinge on the composition% of Taliban/AQ persons in attacks.
Ok, here's a good example of one of those pointless things you asked me to point out. What on earth are you trying to say? Why do you keep pairing AQ/Taliban when that is the very distinction I was making? Do you really not understand that I am advocating that we stop targeting the Taliban because we already decided we can't eradicate them anymore and are asking them to come to the table and participate politically in Afghanistan's future?
And if you didn't get that distinction, which is pretty much all that I've been talking about, what on earth did you actually think I
was talking about?