In 'God's country': Voting wallets over religion

November 20, 2011
In 'God's country': Voting wallets over religion
By Tim Funk | McClatchy Newspapers

COLUMBIA, S.C. — Nearly 60 percent of those who will vote in this state's first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary are expected to be evangelicals.

Last week, the best place to get a reading of what these key voters are thinking two months before the balloting was the annual meeting of the South Carolina Baptist Convention, which drew more than 1,500 delegates or "messengers" to the capital city's convention center.

So, several pastors and lay leaders were asked, what overriding issue will spur these conservative Christian believers to the polls on Jan. 21? Abortion? Same-sex marriage? Israel? Gambling?

The answer: the economy.

"The economy will be in the forefront," even among evangelicals, said the Rev. Terry Duvall, 60, longtime pastor at Macedonia Baptist Church in Gaffney, S.C. "Churches are dealing with the economy, too."

His opinion was echoed by others, including fellow ministers, who see the effects of South Carolina's 11.1 percent unemployment rate - the fourth highest in the nation - in hurting families and less-than-full collection plates.

"I think the economy is going to trump everything," said the Rev. Bob Deaton, field coordinator of the Baptist Fund in Columbia.

In past S.C. Republican presidential primaries, social and moral issues have often taken center-stage.

In 2000, for example, then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush successfully revitalized his campaign - on the ropes after a surprise loss to Sen. John McCain in New Hampshire - by giving a pre-S.C. primary speech at Bob Jones University, a citadel of fundamentalist Christianity in Greenville.

In 2008, McCain, running again, eked out a crucial win by defeating former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a one-time Baptist minister who talked up issues dear to evangelicals.

This year is different, said the Rev. Steve Hogg, who's taken public stands against same-sex marriage and video poker during his 24 years as pastor of First Baptist Church in Rock Hill, S.C.

"Values issues will be important (to evangelical voters), but they will not be as dominant as in the past," he said.

When a Charlotte Observer reporter asked Hogg and other Baptists about their votes in January, they rarely mentioned those low-polling contenders - U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Sen. Rick Santorum - who have put social issues and their own Christian faith at the center of their campaigns.

The name of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has also touted his Christianity along with his jobs record, came up some. But cited more often were those now leading in national and S.C. polls, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former CEO Herman Cain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Some of those interviewed were even willing to forgive Gingrich for his three marriages - a history that may continue to hurt him with many evangelical women.

"None of us is perfect," Duvall said of Gingrich. "And we're not electing him to be pope, but president."

If there is one wild card that could develop in the weeks leading up to South Carolina's primary - traditionally a brutal affair, complete with whisper campaigns - it's religion. Namely, Romney's Mormonism.

A recent NBC News poll found that 53 percent of those likely to vote in the primary do not consider Mormons to be Christians. And though Mormons call themselves Christians - and point out that the official name of their faith is the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints - the Southern Baptist Convention considers the LDS a false religion.

"Just saying you're Christian doesn't make it so," said the Rev. Tim Nugent, pastor of East Gaffney Baptist Church. "I also don't believe (Romney) is a conservative ... I wouldn't vote for him in the primary."

But perhaps as further testament to the power of the economy issue, even some S.C. Baptists who said Romney's Mormonism would be a factor wouldn't rule out voting for him. They referred to his experience as a business executive and his competitiveness with President Barack Obama in recent national polls.

In most GOP polls, Romney is the frontrunner - or at least one of them.

And that brings up South Carolina's other reputation: it's the GOP contest that has propelled the front-runner to the nomination in every "favorite vs. insurgent" battle since 1980.

Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush and John McCain have all won in South Carolina, sometimes beating candidates, like Mike Huckabee, who played more heavily on evangelical themes.

In 2008, Romney finished a distant fourth in the primary. But he could profit this time from South Carolinians' traditional hankering to anoint the eventual nominee. That desire to be the kingmaker yet again - and the sense that Romney might prove to be strong challenger to Obama was also apparent in interviews with some Baptist messengers.

Romney "is almost up there with the (Democratic) president in (poll) percentage," said Betty Gregory, 83, who attends Coronaca Baptist Church in Greenwood. "And he looks good on TV."

Those who have long followed the intersection of politics and religion in South Carolina believe that most S.C. evangelicals will vote their wallets more than their Bibles this time.

"Like most other Americans this year, (evangelicals) are primarily focused on economic and scope-of-government issues," said James Guth, a professor of political science at Furman University whose specialty is religion and politics.

And in 2012, GOP presidential contenders tend to differ on their economic plans and their backgrounds, but not in their stands regarding moral issues. On opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage, they march in lockstep.

"There's not a viable Republican candidate who is soft on family, culture-of-life and traditional view of marriage issues," said Oran Smith, president of the conservative Palmetto Family Council. "As long as all those (values) boxes are checked, (evangelical) voters are freer to look at the economy issue and the candidates' experience."

There may be another reason why many evangelicals - including pastors - are not going all out on values issues in 2012: Past disappointments.

The Rev. Austin O'Donald, who's youth pastor at First Baptist Church in Norris, S.C., said he hasn't given up on his hopes of seeing abortion banned. But he said he has yet to see a presidential candidate who's passionate enough about the issue.

Past politicians have made pro-life pledges, he said, but then didn't deliver. Take President George W. Bush: "Just lip service," said O'Donald, 27.

Hogg of First Baptist in Rock Hill has also been disheartened. "The nation really hasn't changed in moral ways," he said.

By Jan. 21, when South Carolinians will go to the polls, the race may look very different than the current crowded one. Or maybe not.

Who's still in and who's out could determine whether evangelical voters remain split - or are suddenly united.

"Unless there's an 'obvious' candidate like Huckabee (in 2008), evangelicals tend to fragment in their preferences in an open field," said Guth, co-editor of "The Bible and the Ballot Box" and other books. "If the race narrows quickly to two candidates, evangelicals may go with the more 'compatible' one."

Then again, said Guth, some evangelicals will opt for a more practical consideration: Who is most likely to defeat Obama?

Smith of the Palmetto Family Council said he could imagine a repeat of the 2008 primary, which basically pitted moderate (McCain) against conservative (Huckabee).

If that happens, Romney's Mormonism could emerge as a late-breaking issue.

"South Carolina is known to be a very rough and tumble place," Smith said.

Perry is already running a TV ad in South Carolina that features Focus on the Family's James Dobson calling the Texas governor "a deeply committed Christian."

Meanwhile, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints - Romney's Utah-based denomination - has launched a national advertising campaign to counteract its image problems among evangelicals and others. (The ad campaign will bypass the early-primary states, though, to ward off any accusations the push is meant to help Romney or former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, the other Mormon in the GOP race).

In any two-person race involving Romney or Huntsman as the moderate, many S.C. evangelicals would likely back the conservative alternative, predicted Guth.

"A considerable minority of evangelicals will not vote for a Latter-Day Saint if there is an acceptable option," Guth said. "(Romney or Huntsman) would have to do much better among 'business Republicans' to win the primary."

But Huntsman, during a campaign stop in Rock Hill, called that nonsense.

"I think it has zero impact on the election cycle," he said about the theory that his and Romney's faith will matter. "There's no bandwidth left with all the (country's) problems ... for people to be focused on religion."

THE GOP CANDIDATES' RELIGIOUS AFFILIATIONS

Mitt Romney: Mormon

Rick Perry: Attends two churches, one United Methodist, the other Baptist

Herman Cain: Baptist

Newt Gingrich: Converted to Catholicism in 2008

Ron Paul: Baptist

Michele Bachmann: Lutheran

Rick Santorum: Catholic

Jon Huntsman: Mormon

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