0
   

What the hell is George Bush talking about?

 
 
angie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 09:55 pm
North Korea HAS weapons of mass destruction and they don't exactly love us, so why are we not invading them ?

There are brutal dictators by the dozens throughout the world; why are we not rushing in for regime changes in their countries ?

The truth is this war was about revenge and oil.

Bush lied. People don't care. If they re-elect him, they will et exactly what they deserve.
0 Replies
 
Craven de Kere
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 09:55 pm
George,

Yes it is, but you'll really have to make the gaffe of saying it isn't one more time to motivate me to prove you wrong.
0 Replies
 
Brandon9000
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 10:15 pm
kickycan wrote:

Brandon, we also "knew" that they had weapons of mass destruction, and look how that turned out. How do you know what our government knew and didn't know? The truth is we hadn't heard of any wrongdoing from Saddam in the past few years, until our current leaders decided that they needed a reason to pick a fight.

Just one more question, straight out, for you or any of the other Bush defenders here. Do you believe that the reasons for going into Iraq that Bush gave were lies or the truth?

When you say that we hadn't heard of any wrongdoing from Saddam in the past few years, I presume you mean to exclude all the Iraqi citizens tortured and killed. The preceding statement is not intended to imply that this is related to our invasion.

Hussein had had WMD and WMD programs, he had lied about them in the past, he had used the WMD, defectors had given details of his programs, he claimed to have destroyed his WMD, but had had no convincing evidence, etc., etc. More than a decade of asking him to eliminate the weapons appeared not to have worked. An evil madman cannot be permitted to have weapons one of which can kill a million people. Therefore, we acted. The invasion was justified for reasons of self-preservation.

To answer your question, I believe that the reason for going into Iraq is exactly what I just said above, and that is more or less what Bush said.
0 Replies
 
Brandon9000
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 10:24 pm
Craven de Kere wrote:
Brandon9000,

As long as you are basing your arguments on absurd fantasy we will get nowhere.

Suffice it to say that what you consider "realistic" threats (the Iraqi nuke in an American city) I consider idiotic fantasy....

Here is the logic:

1. Hussein had had WMD and WMD programs, had lied about them in the past, and now was declaring that they were gone but had no proof.
2. He has used WMD more than once.
3. He has been shown to have bio and chem weapons. Hussein's former weapons chief told Senator Biden's committee that Iraq had developed the capability to produce at least three nuclear bombs by 2005, but sooner if he could purchase the nuclear material. These estimates cannot be completely trusted, however.
4. He is clearly an evil person who would not hesitate to use WMD based on moral considerations. He is known to have used chemical weapons agains civilians.
5. We cannot reliably keep someone from smuggling WMD in if they want to, and many people would like to do it to us.
6. One single use of one in a populated area would be a crisis of unprecented proportions.

This all added up to a significant risk of the use of a WMD in an American city sometime in the next few years.

Where, exactly, is the defect in this logic?
0 Replies
 
Brandon9000
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 10:34 pm
angie wrote:
North Korea HAS weapons of mass destruction and they don't exactly love us, so why are we not invading them ?

Because our response to their WMD program was too weak, and they may already have nukes. Now, if we invade, they could use one or more of their nukes to obliterate South Korea or a huge number of our soldiers. We sought to prevent Iraq from getting to this stage.
angie wrote:
There are brutal dictators by the dozens throughout the world; why are we not rushing in for regime changes in their countries ?

Because they are not in the category of brutal dictators who appear to have and be developing WMD, and with whom other methods have failed for over a decade.
angie wrote:
The truth is this war was about revenge and oil.

Well, easy to say. Prove it.
angie wrote:
Bush lied. People don't care. If they re-elect him, they will et exactly what they deserve.

What did he lie about? And, BTW, being wrong doesn't prove lying.
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 10:41 pm
Brandon, he did say that we had evidence that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. That is a lie, plain and simple. Now go ahead and tell us why that isn't a lie.
0 Replies
 
Craven de Kere
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 10:42 pm
Brandon,

The defect in the logic is that you have not even established intent to do so and you are already tring to establish the statistical probablity of it.

It's absurd in very elementary ways.

Another big flaw in your logic is that you have excluded all mechanisms other than invasion, when you have no basis for doing so.

The UN resolutions and the sanctions and force that were enforcing them had succeeded in ridding Saddam of weaponized WMDs.

The sanctions and inspections had suceeded in preventing him from aquiring nuclear technology.

The ongoing inspections that were interrupted for the war were another control against the nuclear boogeyman you are touting as well.

They were interrupted with a sense of urgency that was not in any wy proportionate to the threat Iraq posed.

But beyond assailing your "logic" how about getting the facts right first?

Our intel never once said he was "within a year or two of having nukes". That period (a year or two) is simply the fastest time he could have become a nuclear power under perfect conditions.

It was not an estimate of his progress but simply common knowledge of the time it would take to develop crude nuclear weapons once the materials and technology are aquired.

But a fun way to illustrate the less-than-absolute issues you treat absolutely would be to use your very arguments to justify a preemptive strike on the USA.


1. The US has WMDs and WMD programs. Most analysts consider it a lie that the US does not currently have biological WMDs.
2. The US has used WMD more than once.
3. The US has killed more civilians with WMDs than all other nations in history combined.
4. Bush is "clearly" an "evil" person who is known to wage unprovoked war and kill civilians. (NOTE, even in parodying your argument this feels stupid, "evil" is a fictional concept).
5. The world can't reliably stop the US from smuggling WMDs into their territory, and the world has no ability whatsoever to stop US ICBMs.
6. One single use of one in a populated area would be a crisis of unprecented proportions.

By this reasoning, and given that we are speaking of the nation that has killed more civilians with WMDs than any other nation a pre-emptive strike should be lauched on the US. The US has shown it's disposition to invade nations that did not seek war with the US and since the US has nukes, has shown the willingness to use them on civilians and is militaristic the US should be preemptively invaded.

The above feels ridiculous just saying it, it's far to easy to distort justifications for "preemption" into what is really just agression disguised.

Really Brandon, you should stick with humanitarian grounds. Insofar as humanitarian grounds are concerned I supported regime change.
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 10:44 pm
And by the way, thank you for correcting me on my statement about not having heard anything from Saddam in recent years. To clarify, we hadn't had any direct conflicts with him in that time. And we probably wouldn't have, if the administration hadn't wanted to pick that fight with him.
0 Replies
 
Craven de Kere
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 10:55 pm
Incidentally along the lines of getting the facts right before attempting to apply logic it would very much be a "precedented" situation. ;-)
0 Replies
 
Wilso
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 11:00 pm
McGentrix wrote:
Craven de Kere wrote:
Perhaps you should note that I have resigned myself to leaving you to think what you want. ;-)

Hint: "I won't be rehashing the Iraq debate this morning."


Yet you continue posting...


And I hope he keeps doing so. They're a pleasure to read!
0 Replies
 
Mr Stillwater
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 11:45 pm
[quote="Brandon9000]Here is the logic:

4. He is clearly an evil person who would not hesitate to use WMD based on moral considerations. He is known to have used chemical weapons agains civilians.
5. We cannot reliably keep someone from smuggling WMD in if they want to, and many people would like to do it to us.
6. One single use of one in a populated area would be a crisis of unprecented proportions.
[/quote]

Sorry, but you have abandoned logic there.

You have made statement 5, Saddam=Mad Ass. Fine, but then you claim that because of that some-one is then going to smuggle in weapons (presumably into the USA) and use them. Where is the connection between points 5 & 6?

Possession of WMDs by Iraq DOES not automatically lead to the deployment and use of them against civilians in the USA. If it did, then this trigger would have been pulled years ago. Saddam's Iraq only ever posed a threat to its neighbours, and in that regard was a little money-spinner to the West.
0 Replies
 
PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 03:50 am
Since Craven and others have done cavalier work of puréeing your arguments into a creamy fallacy mousse, let me just point to this:

Brandon9000 wrote:
More than a decade of asking him to eliminate the weapons appeared not to have worked.


Dead wrong, and dumb to boot.

The inspections were working. Saddam had NO WMDs. Our intelligence thought he did. It was wrong. Bush started a war which has killed 500 American soldiers and thousands of Iraqi innocents based on faulty intelligence which he embellished, exaggerated, and just plain made up in order to do so.

There's the lies, by the way.

You've done a fine job -- mostly -- of making your case; it's just that nearly no one in this forum is going to be buying it.
0 Replies
 
pistoff
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 04:24 am
nope
When someone wants to believe something real bad, facts don't matter. They will rationalize away every fact.
0 Replies
 
Brandon9000
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 08:54 am
kickycan wrote:
Brandon, he did say that we had evidence that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. That is a lie, plain and simple. Now go ahead and tell us why that isn't a lie.

Okay, here's why.

Hussein had had WMD in the past, he had been verified to have lied about having them in the past, and defectors had reported on his active development programs. What I think Bush said was that there was an uncomfortable likelihood that he had them, and that he had shown a lot of will to develop them, and had previously demonstrated a lot of deceit about it, and based on those factors, and the unimaginable consequences of even one WMD used in a populated area ever (like Hiroshima, but probably worse), we had no choice but to demand real proof they had been destroyed, and failing that, to go in and see first hand. All of this is the truth.
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 09:28 am
And Bill Clinton did not have sexual relations with that woman.
0 Replies
 
Brandon9000
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 10:35 am
Craven de Kere wrote:
Brandon,

The defect in the logic is that you have not even established intent to do so and you are already tring to establish the statistical probablity of it.


I am not saying that he had the intent to do it. What I am saying is that:
1. He is evil, and ruthless, and personally a murderer. For example, he has professionally been an assassin (e.g. the attempt on General Abdul Qassim), a torturer (e.g., at the "Palace of the End" in the early 60s), and has personally participated in the liquidation of many enemies (e.g., the meeting of the Revolutionary Command Council on July 22, 1979).
2. He has no problem with intentionally targetting civilians, and the key word here is intentionally.
3. He has personally used WMD both against civilians and during an invasion.

In other words, this is a blackly evil and immoral man who cannot be permitted to acquire weapons which would make him invulnerable, and one of which could kill a million people and wound many more. I am not saying that no one may have the weapons, just that people in the category of a Hitler or a Stalin may not. You have said that evil is a "fictional" concept. Are you asserting that there are not people in the world who fit the common definition of evil?

Craven de Kere wrote:
It's absurd in very elementary ways.

Another big flaw in your logic is that you have excluded all mechanisms other than invasion, when you have no basis for doing so.

The UN resolutions and the sanctions and force that were enforcing them had succeeded in ridding Saddam of weaponized WMDs.

The sanctions and inspections had suceeded in preventing him from aquiring nuclear technology.

The ongoing inspections that were interrupted for the war were another control against the nuclear boogeyman you are touting as well.

I am not excluding other mechanisms. I am saying that after more than a decade of trying to get him to dissarm peacefully, and being met with lies and deception about disarming, force finally had to be used.

Quote:
They were interrupted with a sense of urgency that was not in any wy proportionate to the threat Iraq posed.

Our sense of urgency was proportional to the threat. What was the threat? The threat was the prospect of WMD being used against Saddam's enemies. As I have pointed out, one single use of one of the worse varieties of WMD could kill a million and wound a like number. Given that Hussein was known to have already developed biological and chemical weapons, and that our estimates were that he could have nukes within a couple of years, but sooner if he could purchase the purified fissionable material, and that such estimates are not very reliable, there was urgency. If it's not obvious, the intentional spreading of an effective plague in the US, or the detonation of a nuke in Los Angeles would be much worse than 9/11.

Quote:
But beyond assailing your "logic" how about getting the facts right first?

Our intel never once said he was "within a year or two of having nukes". That period (a year or two) is simply the fastest time he could have become a nuclear power under perfect conditions.

It was not an estimate of his progress but simply common knowledge of the time it would take to develop crude nuclear weapons once the materials and technology are aquired.

In early September 2002, a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that Iraq could put a nuke together within months if it could get hold of enough enriched uranium or plutonium. The CIA agreed, warning that Iraq could have nuclear weapons within a year, if it could get enough fissionable material from outside. While Iraq might have needed a few more years (as little as three years according to German intelligence) to produce on its own the fissile material to make a bomb, that timetable would have dropped to under a year, even to a matter of months, if the Iraqis succeeded in buying material from an outside source. In 2002, former Iraqi nuclear scientist Khidhir Hamza appeared in a U.S. congressional hearing and testified Iraq was two to three years from building a successful nuclear bomb. It should be remembered, however, that in 1990 the CIA had estimated Iraq was still several years away from having a nuclear weapon, but we now know that at the time of the first Gulf War Saddam was only a year away from going nuclear.

Quote:
But a fun way to illustrate the less-than-absolute issues you treat absolutely would be to use your very arguments to justify a preemptive strike on the USA.


1. The US has WMDs and WMD programs. Most analysts consider it a lie that the US does not currently have biological WMDs.
2. The US has used WMD more than once.
3. The US has killed more civilians with WMDs than all other nations in history combined.
4. Bush is "clearly" an "evil" person who is known to wage unprovoked war and kill civilians. (NOTE, even in parodying your argument this feels stupid, "evil" is a fictional concept).
5. The world can't reliably stop the US from smuggling WMDs into their territory, and the world has no ability whatsoever to stop US ICBMs.
6. One single use of one in a populated area would be a crisis of unprecented proportions.

By this reasoning, and given that we are speaking of the nation that has killed more civilians with WMDs than any other nation a pre-emptive strike should be lauched on the US. The US has shown it's disposition to invade nations that did not seek war with the US and since the US has nukes, has shown the willingness to use them on civilians and is militaristic the US should be preemptively invaded.

I am not suggesting that no country can be permitted to have WMD, just that:

1. National rulers whose evil and whose willingness to intentionally target civilians is beyond question cannot be allowed to have them, because of the ability of some of these weapons to kill on the scale of millions.
2. If more and more countries, including small dictatorships, acquire these weapons, then sooner or later, someone will use one. It is not realistic to think that if we get to the point where dozens of countries have WMD, someone, somewhere isn't going to use one or give them to someone who will.

One final note, when you say that Bush is known to wage wars that kill civilians, this must be distinguished from intentional attempts to target civilians, not by acident, but as the primary, intended target of the attack, as Saddam's use of chemical weapons against the Kurds. They are not at all the same thing.
0 Replies
 
Brandon9000
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 10:37 am
kickycan wrote:
And Bill Clinton did not have sexual relations with that woman.

Not much of a logical counterargument to what I said.
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 10:53 am
Brandon

You seem like an intelligent, well-informed, decent human being...

...but you are revising history in order to rationalize what we've done here.

If things truly are the way you now say they were with regard for the reason being given by this administration for going to war the way they did and when they did...

...why didn't they put the message out there the way you are now?

(This is the third time I've asked that question -- using various wordings.)
0 Replies
 
Craven de Kere
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 11:18 am
Brandon9000 wrote:

I am not saying that he had the intent to do it.


In this case the specter you tout is becoming even less tangible.

Quote:
What I am saying is that:
1. He is evil and ruthless, and personally a murderer. For example, he has professionally been an assassin (e.g. the attempt on General Abdul Qassim), a torturer (e.g., at the "Palace of the End" in the early 60s), and has personally participated in the liquidation of many enemies (e.g., the meeting of the Revolutionary Command Council on July 22, 1979).


And like I said, I have nothing but contempt for the arguments that use things like "evil".

Note this is not just mere disagreement, as there are reasonable things with which I disagree. But to use "he is evil" as an argument draws my contempt.

It's an insipid argument both because "evil" is a fictional concept and because even if it weren't invasions should not be based on the perceived character flaws of the individual but rather how those flaws manifest themselves.

Like I said, if you want to mount a case for regime change based on his domestic "sins" then it's a case that would be far more defensible than the insipid "nuke in the US" argument.

Intent is inportant because you can't take preventative action against someone simply because of their character flaws, you must make the connection between that and the act you intend to prevent.

Despite what georgeob1 says, international law gives very very little lee way for pre-emption at all, and no allowance whatsoever of "preemption" of an act that isn't even likely or imminent.

Quote:
2. He has no problem with intentionally targetting civilians, and the key word here is intentionally.


If you are using "intentionally" as a key word to differentiate this from my devil's argument analogy with the USA it does not do so.

Again, the USA is the nation that has killed the most civilians with WMDs than any nation in history and did so intentionally.

I happen to think it was justified in the context where we used it (even though I do not think it was necessary) and I raise this comparison to illustrate the facility with which this righteous indignation you are using as a basis of war can be used to justify almost any aggression.

Quote:
3. He has personally used WMD both against civilians and during an invasion.


So has the US, and remember we did so both intentionally and suceeded in killing more civilians with WMDs than any other nation in history.

Now we were, indeed, invading. But there is a very good point (that I suspect that you are trying to say even if you didn't out and say it) about it not being an unprovoked war.

But if you now are going to call on sovereignty as an issue you are strengthening the strongest argument I have against ill-sold "pre-emptive" war.

In short you are using as a differentiating factor the very "sin" you are defending.

See, Saddam's breaches of sovereignty are violations of international law. In that I agree wholeheartedly.

But I stop short of using said acts to justify it's identical twin.

The US has breached sovereignty many times, and this invasion was again both against international law and the principles of sovereignty. So if you plan to continue to use Saddam's disrepect for sovereignty in your argument you should note that you do so in order to justify ours.

Quote:
In other words, this is a blackly evil and immoral man, who cannot be permitted to acquire weapons which would make him invulnerable, and one of which could kill a million people and wound many more.


And like I said, even if that's true this in no way makes the assertion that war was necessary valid as methods prior to the war had suceeded in this proscription.

Quote:
I am not saying that no one may have the weapons, just that people in the category of a Hitler or a Stalin may not. You have said that evil is a "fictional" concept. Are you asserting that there are not people in the world who fit the common definition of evil?


You are using "common" in order to rewrite the real definition when challenged.

But yes, "evil" is the stuff of fairy tales.

Quote:
Our sense of urgency was proportional to the threat. What was the threat? The threat was the prospect of WMD being used against Saddam's enemies.


Brandon this is really one of the more stupid comments I have seen.

You are saying that our very real and present act was proportionate to a very unreal and non-existent threat. It's laughable. Laughing

Quote:
As I have pointed out, one single use of one of the worse varieties of WMD could kill a million and wound a like number.


And as I have pointed out you can construct this boogeyman all you want, but we are not discussing your fantasies but rather reality something incompatible with this boogeyman you keep touting.

Quote:
Given that Hussein was known to have already developed biological and chemical weapons, and that our estimates were that he could have nukes within a couple of years, but sooner if he could purchase the purified fissionable material, and that such estimates are not very reliable, there was urgency.


Remember the US analogy, if this is true then the urgency with which the US should be invaded is much more pressing. Rolling Eyes

Secondly you are simply repeating the false claims of Iraq's nuclear timetable, your willful disregard for facts will only be met with my disregard for your fallacy.

Lastly, given that timetable in your fantasy there's still no sense of urgecy that should interrupt the inspections.

And here we run into the insipid part of your argument. It in no way addresses the "many other ways" argument. You claim a sense of urgecy that interrupted the inspections was valid based on the both idiotic and false notion that Iraq was 2 years away from nukes.

Besides being false that is not a justification for the interruption of the tactic that best deprived Iraq of these weapons (ie. inspections).

Quote:
If it's not obvious, the intentional spreading of an effective plague in the US, or the detonation of a nuke in Los Angeles would be much worse than 9/11.


If it's not obvious that I think this idiotic fantasy of yours is not in any way a reflection of reality or reasonable in the least then by all means listen to me say it again.

I do not merely disagree eith this, but also find it simply insipid. It's like discussing geopolitics with a child with an overactive imagination.

So tout the nuclear boogeyman all you want, I will continue to give it all the consideration that it is due.

Quote:
In early September 2002, a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that Iraq could put a nuke together within months if it could get hold of enough enriched uranium or plutonium. The CIA agreed, warning that Iraq could have nuclear weapons within a year, if it could get enough fissionable material from outside. While Iraq might have needed a few more years (as little as three years according to German intelligence) to produce on its own the fissile material to make a bomb, that timetable would have dropped to under a year, even to a matter of months, if the Iraqis succeeded in buying material from an outside source. In 2002, former Iraqi nuclear scientist Khidhir Hamza appeared in a U.S. congressional hearing and testified Iraq was two to three years from building a successful nuclear bomb. It should be remembered, however, that in 1990 the CIA had estimated Iraq was still several years away from having a nuclear weapon, but we now know that at the time of the first Gulf War Saddam was only a year away from going nuclear.


Do you have a point? This in no way validates the nuclear boogeyman of yours, it just illustrates that it's easy enough to fabricate this boogeyman.

All of the above is simply based on the timetable it would take for ANY nation to produce nukes under those conditions.

It's not based on a single bit of information exclusive to Iraq.

So like I said, said boogeyman can be used to justify an immediate pre-emptive invasion of any nation you want.


Just call 'em "evil" right? Laughing

Quote:
1. National rulers whose evil and whose willingness to intentionally target civilians is beyond question cannot be allowed to have them, because of the ability of some of these weapons to kill on the scale of millions,


Still on the "evil" train. Let's let it slide and merely point out taht even if this were true that's an indiotic justification for the war, as said weaponry had already been sucessfully removed from Saddam's power.

In short, this is a "we needed to invade immediately to achieve what had already been acheived" argument. Laughing

Quote:
2. If more and more countries, including small dictatorships, acquire these weapons, then sooner or later, someone will use one. It is not realistic to think that if we get to the point where dozens of countries have WMD, someone, somewhere isn't going to use one or give them to someone who will.


Is this justification to invade other countries or to invade Iraq?

Because, again, you can no more demonstrate that Iraq had any inclination at all to make a significant effort to aquire nukes than you can in illustrating that the timetable you cite is in any way specific to Iraq.

Quote:
One final note, when you say that Bush is known to wage wars that kill civilians, this must be distinguished from intentional attempts to target civilians, not by acident, but as the primary, intended target of the attack, as Saddam's use of chemical weapons against the Kurds. They are not at all the same thing.


What on earth makes you think Kurds are all civilians. Saddam was doing just as most others do when targeting civilians, he was making a decision that would inevitably kill civilians in addition to the targets.

But in spirit I agree, and really don't much care about the civilians Bush's wars have killed anyway. I bring it up because the self-righteous and fantastic moral indignation that you think is a sufficient casus belli is a lot less absolute than you portray it, and as I said sounds like an over-active imagination more than anything.
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 11:28 am
Brandon, here's the point I was trying to make. You're wrong about what Bush said, and he did lie, repeatedly, in the months leading up to Iraq war.

Here's some of Bush's "facts" I got from the White House web page.

New Year's Eve Press conference, 2002:
"We do expect him to disarm his weapons of mass destruction, that's what we expect. We expect him to disarm, to get rid of his weapons of mass destruction."

January 14th, 2002 press conference:
"What I have in mind for Saddam Hussein is to disarm. Is Saddam Hussein disarming? He's been given 11 years to disarm. And so the world came together and we have given him one last chance to disarm. So far, I haven't seen any evidence that he is disarming.
Time is running out on Saddam Hussein. He must disarm. I'm sick and tired of games and deception."

In a speech from March, 2003:
"Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised.
And it has aided, trained and harbored terrorists, including operatives of al Qaeda."

Yeah, you're right. He didn't lie at all. And Bill Clinton didn't have sexual relations with that woman.
0 Replies
 
 

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