Wrestlin' in Wisconsin

@hawkeye10,

I'd think that retired or laid off union members could be non-working union members.

You make an unwarranted assumption that all non-workers are non-union members; I see no reason to assume that unemployed people cannot be union members.

0 Replies

@hawkeye10,

Quote:

I have found a flaw in the poll that Bill provided as well...in it 14% of the respondents are union members, but only 14.2% of the employed in Wisconsin are union members http://www.bls.gov/ro5/unionwi.pdf.

I would say the flaw is your assumption that union workers are never laid off.
A better assumption would be that the percent of union workers in the unemployed is similar to those employed.

Quote:

Some math wiz could figure it out, but I guess about 10%-11%. Goldstein has a rep for being non partisan, but he certainly blew it here. It is biased towards unions and the DEMS.

It probably isn't since the number of retired union employees would be a higher rate than the working population.

You start with a ridiculus assumption and then get in over your head hawkeye.

1 Reply

This morning, I heard a song about the "Italian Hall Massacre," an event in the history of my homestate, Michigan, that I was unaware of.

Many held anti-union thugs to be guilty. Certainly, there was an effort to hide blame.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Hall_disaster

0 Replies

@hawkeye10,

Oh so a president should not have a right to blast an anti-union thug governor?

If anything he is not going far enough in his support of these middle class workers being attacked by the super rich and their lap dogs.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

Another thing I wonder is where the **** does Obama get off blasting Walker and the WI GOP? This is a state matter, not a federal concern at at. Unlike with the Arizona illegal immigrant law where Obama can make a flimsy argument that it is with-in his lane to comment here it is clearly none of his business at all. Obama's behavior is consistent with that of the leader of an overly large and overly intrusive federal government which is in dire need of pruning with a hatchet.

Walker's a Dick. He represents everything that's wrong with the modern GOP. Obama can point that out all he wants, he has the same right as any other citizen to speak his mind on issues.

The pres. isn't limited to commenting on Federal issues, Hawk.

I don't believe, btw, that you are pro-union or on the side of the unions in this argument. Not at all. It's clear that you latched on Walkers' side and emotionally invested yourself in the idea that he was going to win. I find your protestations that the opposite are true to be without merit.

Cycloptichorn

2 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

Quote:

I don't believe, btw, that you are pro-union or on the side of the unions in this argument. Not at all. It's clear that you latched on Walkers' side and emotionally invested yourself in the idea that he was going to win. I find your protestations that the opposite are true to be without merit.

Hawkeye is in my opinion is being for some strange reason very very dishonest on this thread concerning his real positions concerning unions.

He sure the hell not on the middle class side in this conflict.

2 Replies

@BillRM,

Yeah, he protests too much!

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Quote:

Walker's a Dick. He represents everything that's wrong with the modern GOP. Obama can point that out all he wants, he has the same right as any other citizen to speak his mind on issues.

Three

for three points well made.

0 Replies

@BillRM,

Actually, I think Hawkeye is delusional. Zen socialist indeed . . . not.

0 Replies

@BillRM,

Quote:

Oh so a president should not have a right to blast an anti-union thug governor?

Sure he has the right, but it is not proper, it is not showing proper respect for the rights to self determination that the citizens of wisconsin hold. I also think that his over reaching into state matters will backfire politically for him, as he is handing the red hot Tea Party evidence that they are right about the problem of big government. These words of Obama will very shortly be used against him.

0 Replies

@parados,

Quote:

I would say the flaw is your assumption that union workers are never laid off.
A better assumption would be that the percent of union workers in the unemployed is similar to those employed.

Wrong, a union man is a union man even when he is laid off.

Quote:

It probably isn't since the number of retired union employees would be a higher rate than the working population.

Considering that 20 years ago the union rate was 21% of employed and now it is 14% the retired would bump the pool number slightly, however these are mostly men who die earlier than women, and a lot of these union men earned well over their career and can be expected to vacate to warmer climates where as other retired Wisconsinites often will not have the funds to do so. Your arguement does not justify using 14% union members in the polling pool.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

My interest in Wisconsin is mostly that my dad's family comes from there...My grandparents were conservatives from Kenosha and my uncle was a ultra radical leftist in Madison and then Milwaukee, a leader of the anti-war and student movements on campus and then in the fight against distroying neighborhoods to build a freeway in Milwaukee.

I also worked in Wisconsin for a couple of years and was active in an environmental preservation group in the state for a lot of years, as Rockford Il where I grew up is only about 15 min from the border.

0 Replies

@hawkeye10,

You argued that Wi has 14% union employees...
But you argued that respondents to the poll should be about 11% union instead of 14 because the poll included retired and unemployed.
That would mean that the unemployed and retired can't be union at the same rate as employees. In fact there would have to be almost no unemployed union people for your math to work.

Unless you can show that there are no unemployed union workers and no retired union workers, your argument is based on the false assumption that union men are no longer union men when laid off.

1 Reply

@parados,

The poll takers are obviously arguing that the retired population being higher than 14% union cancels out the never employed union rate of 0%, but I think that they are far off. I think that the data exists in the public domain to calculate what this sample rate should have been, but I dont have the skills to do it. Maybe the 4% error rate takes into consideration that these pollsters were sloppy in the sample gathering..

2 Replies

@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

I dont have the skills to do it.

So... you don't have the ability make a successful critique of their method, but you're going to invalidate it just on your say-so, anyway.

OK, then. Nothing to see here, folks....

0 Replies

@hawkeye10,

How did you arrive at the 4% error rate?

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

How did you arrive at the 4% error rate?

that is the author's claim, it is in the results. I dont do a lot of poll analysis but this seems on the high side.

Quote:

Wisconsin Study
WPRI
February 27 to March 1, 2011
N = 603
MoE = ± 4%

http://www.wpri.org/polls/March2011/ToplinesWPRIFebMar%202011.pdf

Quote:

Statisticians measure the chance of this kind of error by the "margin of error", or "MoE" for short.

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

I now understand; it's based on the number in the poll. Thx; that seems accurate.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

I now understand; it's based on the number in the poll

no, it based upon how close they think they got the sample to the actual population. The number for union membership was the most important one to get right, and I have serious concerns about how close it is to right. I dont see how we get to 14% of the adult population of WI being union members. But I cant prove that it is wrong either.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

No, it's in the sample; the number they polled. I studied statistics in college; where did you learn your statistics? It's called standard deviation based on a mathematical formula.

0 Replies

Wrestlin' in Wisconsin

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know