Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

@roger,

So it's just about economy?

(Germany is part of the EU, btw - and that started just and (with six countries) as the European Economic Community .... and, yes, Germany is still the largest country among the 27 member states ....)

But speaking about economy:
the U.S. Commerce Department says in a document about doing business in Egypt that, "The U.S. is Egypt’s largest bilateral trading partner, and Egypt is the fourth largest export market for U.S. products and services in the Middle East. Globally, Egypt is the 33rd largest export market for the U.S." Source

So you think, roger, that the relation between the USA and Egypt is similar to that of Germany and the other EU-members?

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@Finn dAbuzz,

I don't like the long term responsibility for controlling the destiny of other countries. I think it's responsible to exert in the direction of peaceful resolution...but in the end - Let them have at it. I don't want my country positioning another Shah.

I think what may be found is that the populace in Egypt was happier under Mubarak than they will be under whatever regime they install.

It's their country to make or break. Let's see what THEY do with it.

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@Lash,

Lash wrote:

I think what may be found is that the populace in Egypt was happier under Mubarak than they will be under whatever regime they install.

So you know some of the Egyptian populace and are informed about how's their daily life?
(My own view is totally biased: I only know the opinion of poeple who left Egypt to live here and through the glasses of a holiday-maker.)

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@Walter Hinteler,

Walter, did I intimate that I did? Did I say they WOULD be happier? Many times, the scourge we do know is better than the one we trade it for. It's a common adage and not a claim. Little quick on the trigger finger, partner.

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@Lash,

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110129/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_protest
Tries to name successor...and now soldiers are not toe-ing the line.

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10:58PM: AP and Al Jazeera report that 19 private jets carrying families of wealthy businessmen have left Cairo for Dubai.

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@Walter Hinteler,

Walter Hinteler wrote:

Finn dAbuzz wrote:

While I don't believe the US can control the outcome, it can influence it, and I see no reason why we shouldn't try to do so.

Ah, I see: free world, democracy, self determination et cetera!

Under Pax Americana...yes.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/world/middleeast/30-egypt.html?exprod=myyahoo
Lost the military?

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@Lash,

With great power comes great responsibility...
Wink

We either influence the destinies of nations that reside in the critical crossroads of our interests or we risk the possibility of someday sending troops to determine their destinies.

We need, however, to be more forward thinking and take more risk up front to avoid greater risk later on.

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@Lash,

Not yet, but they are hardly making a show of their support for him.

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@Walter Hinteler,

In essence, yes. That was not a criticism of Germany, by the way. Not that I would tell you how to take the comment, of course.

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@Lash,

Quote:

I think we all know that the US pays certain countries to do certain things. It's a time honored way to manipulate poorer (and sometimes affluent) countries. We pay Israel, Egypt, Pakistan and a host of others...good intentions mixed in with a desire to control. Nobody's forcing them to take it.

US support will not influence the protesters. They are in the streets for more of a voice in their government. I don't think they give a whit about the money we offer for certain behavior. If they did, they'd have calculated that before taking to the streets. I think this is a grassroots revolution, not politically (or US support) motivated.

Lash, I have said (twice now, in response to your questions) that I do not believe the US is “controlling the protesters” or “running the revolution” in Egypt.
If you read my earlier posts, I said the anti-government protesters (in Yemen & Tunisia as well as Egypt) were motivated by poverty, lack of opportunity, the gap between rich & poor and corrupt governments .

And, (rather than respond to all the posts you’ve directed to me): Setanta said that the only thing which can unseat Mubarak is the withdrawal of army support.
To which I replied that this would certainly have an impact.
But I do not believe this is the only influence on the survival or not of Maburak’s government.

I do believe that the US has been exercising its influence & has a stake in the survival of Mubarak's government. Whether that will change, as a result of what may (or may not) occur in Egypt over coming days & weeks, I simply don't know.
But for the record, at no point have I implied that US influence would be the sole “decider” on the outcome of the Egyptian protests.

Actually I agree with Finn’s perspective on this (rather a surprise!):

Quote:

I think there is validity in both sides .......
Without the continued support of the Egyptian military, Mubarak has no chance of surviving.

However their continued support may depend in large part on whether or not the US backs him as well.

I'm sure the senior military officials enjoy the benefits of US aid and given the choice will not want to lose them. Assuming they have control over the military they can keep Mubarak in power, but given a signal from the US they could also withdraw their support, let him fall and then step back into the ensuing power vacuum and take control of the country "pending near term elections" ....

I hope this clears things up.
Can we move on now, please?

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From the BBC today:

Quote:

29 January 2011 Last updated at 22:47 GMT
Egypt protests: Hosni Mubarak under world pressure

Leaders from the US, UK, France and Germany have urged Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to avoid violence and enact reforms as protests continue.

In Cairo, thousands of demonstrators have ignored a curfew. The army is standing by and not intervening.

Mr Mubarak has appointed his first ever vice-president and a new prime minister as he struggles to regain control after five days of street demonstrations.

At least 74 people have been killed since Tuesday, and looting is ongoing.

US President Barack Obama met national security officials on Saturday to discuss the situation in Egypt.

Afterwards, the White House said it would continue to focus on "calling for restraint, supporting universal rights and supporting concrete steps that advance political reform."

There was a similar call from the leaders of Britain, Germany and France.

"We call on President Mubarak to avoid at all costs the use of violence against unarmed civilians, and on the demonstrators to exercise their rights peacefully," said Prime Minister David Cameron, Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Nicolas Sarkozy in a joint statement. ....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12317277

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@msolga,

Quote:

Analysis
John Simpson World Affairs Editor, BBC News, Cairo

In spite of the turmoil, one or two things are becoming clearer here. It looks pretty likely that President Mubarak and his military leaders have been told in no uncertain fashion by the Americans that the Tiananmen Square option, by which the authorities restore order by shooting the protestors down by the hundred, is simply not acceptable.

Mr Mubarak's only hope, therefore, is to form a government which the demonstrators might accept, hard though that is to imagine. He's now appointed a new prime minister and a new vice-president - Omar Suleiman, the head of military intelligence.

Mr Suleiman isn't just a secret policeman: he's also an experienced diplomatic negotiator, respected in the West. But tonight, the crowds have been chanting slogans against him as well.

If the new government can't calm the anger in the streets, it's hard to see how President Mubarak can stay in power. Hard, too, to think that the Americans, who keep Egypt afloat with their money, would want him to.

Omar Suleiman, the new vice-president, once saved President Mubarak's life in an assassination attempt. Saving him a second time may prove more of a problem.

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@msolga,

It's always about following the money.

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From BenCNN's tweetstream

Nearly 1,000 inmates flee Prison Demu, southwest of #Cairo, Nile TV reports http://on.cnn.com/gMUgpv

17 people shot and killed trying to break into police station near #Cairo, Reuters reports http://on.cnn.com/gMUgpv

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@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

It's always about following the money.

Perhaps if considerably more of that money had been spent on improving the circumstances of ordinary Egyptions, there'd be far less motivation for the anti-government protests in Egypt today?
So much military expenditure in such an impoverished country.:

Quote:

The United States of America provide an annual military assistance to Egypt, which in 2009 amounted to US$ 1.3 billion (inflation adjusted US$ 1.33 billion in 2011).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Armed_Forces

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@Lash,

Msolga doesn't like anyone to call her on the innuendos she leaves scattered about. She dishes it out liberally but generally takes it badly herself.

Now, can we please move on ?

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@georgeob1,

Thank you for your illuminating post about my real motives, George.
Perhaps you'd like to read back through the thread to check that I'd actually said what I'd claimed I said in my post? (I did.)
Do you have anything to say about the situation in Egypt?
I would love to move on.

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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

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