53
   

Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 07:47 pm
@msolga,
No.
When you say things like this - and a few other statements that were or seemed unsupportable, this is what you can expect: to support it or withdraw it. Those have been the rules since I've been here.
Quote:
I see his government & the US as having been mutually dependent, to date.


Quote:
Lash, I have said (twice now, in response to your questions) that I do not believe the US is “controlling the protesters” or “running the revolution” in Egypt.

But, you continue to say OTHER THINGS that are very questionable....so I'm questioning them.

Nobody gets a free ride.
cicerone imposter
 
  3  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 07:56 pm
@msolga,
Precisely; we have the bad habit of spending money without knowing how it's going to be spent; even when our bailouts are our own banks and finance companies.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 07:56 pm
@Lash,
Yes, I said those things you quoted.
So?
My perspective is different to yours.
So?
If you want to put a counter-view to anything I've said, go right ahead. Fine by me.
But I would prefer you stuck to the issues & not make this so personal.
I am as entitled to my views on the situation in Egypt as you are to yours.
As is anyone else who contributes to this thread.

I have said all I want to say about this.
I am not remotely interested in continuing ....
Nor am I interested in having an online dust-up with you because we have different views on this issue.
That's not what I'm participating in this thread for.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 08:05 pm
@msolga,
msolga wrote:

Thank you for your illuminating post about my real motives, George.
Perhaps you'd like to read back through the thread to check that I'd actually said what I'd claimed I said in my post? (I did.)
Do you have anything to say about the situation in Egypt?
I would love to move on.


I did respond: it's back on page 8, but here it is again for your convenience;

"Well it is true the United States has been a good friend to Egypt for a long time. We pressured the British to finally end their imperial rule in the region after WWII; later we told the British, French and Israelis to get out of Egypt after they invaded in 1956. We were estranged for a while after Nasser allowed the Soviet Union to base its forces there, but accepted Sadat's offers of peace after the 1973 war with Israel. Mubarak's government has certainly been authoritarian by Western standards, but, compared to most others in the Muslim world, it has been relatively mild. I think Setanta's assertions that the Egyptian Army is the decisive actor in the game now is probably accurate.

We are dealing here with the legacy of Muslim hostility and European imperialism. It all started with Napoleon and subsequent French colonization of the Magreb in North Africa, and reached a climax with the destruction of the Ottoman Empire by Britain (with the aid of their Australian dupes in Galipoli in 1915), France and Russia. It is a serious problem affecting a large part of the world. We have been trying to deal with it for a long time - sometimes wisely and well and sometimes foolishly and wrong.

Who do you believe is to blame for it all? "

msolga wrote:

I have said all I want to say about this.
I am not remotely interested in continuing ....
Nor am I interested in having an online dust-up with you because we have different views on this issue.
That's not what I'm participating in this thread for.


Is it fair then to conclude that you are here to give us all the benefit of your opinions, but are uninterested in any views that differ from your own?
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 08:11 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Who do you believe is to blame for it all? "


You mean the current state of unrest in Egypt, George?
Or are you referring more to responsibility for historical events?
I'm genuinely not clear about what you're asking me, or why you're asking me (in particular).
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 08:13 pm
@msolga,
Because the situation in Egypt (and throughout the Muslim world) today is a direct consequence of the historical events I cited.

Why do you so frequently hide behind questions with such obvious answers?
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 08:34 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Why do you so frequently hide behind questions with such obvious answers?

(And why do you frequently make such comments, George? Unpleasant & quite unnecessary.)

I genuinely didn't understand what you were asking me to comment on. So I asked you to clarify. And now I do understand , because you just told me.

Quote:
Because the situation in Egypt (and throughout the Muslim world) today is a direct consequence of the historical events I cited.


This will not satisfy you, I know, but I am no expert of Egyptian history.
(I don't think I've suggested I am?) I know something of the events you've mentioned, but I'm not in anywhere near an informed enough position to connect those events of the past to the anti-government events we are witnessing today.
That's my truthful response to your question, whether you accept it or not.
But I'd be interested to hear what you have to say about this subject. (I don't believe we've touched on it in this, in discussion till now, so I'd be interested.)
Could I ask you how you see the connections between the past history of Egypt & the anti-government protests happening now?








msolga
 
  0  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 09:32 pm
I always enjoy reading Robert Fisk's middle east reports & commentary for the Independent .
Some of the most detailed & informative "on the spot" reporting I've come across on the situation in Egypt so far... including lots of opinion!
Well worth a read, if you're interested:


Quote:
Robert Fisk: Egypt: Death throes of a dictatorship
Sunday, 30 January 2011

http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/dynamic/00544/fisk_544430t.jpg
Anti-Mubarak protesters in Cairo yesterday climb on an army tank

The Egyptian tanks, the delirious protesters sitting atop them, the flags, the 40,000 protesters weeping and crying and cheering in Freedom Square and praying around them, the Muslim Brotherhood official sitting amid the tank passengers. Should this be compared to the liberation of Bucharest? Climbing on to an American-made battle tank myself, I could only remember those wonderful films of the liberation of Paris. A few hundred metres away, Hosni Mubarak's black-uniformed security police were still firing at demonstrators near the interior ministry. It was a wild, historical victory celebration, Mubarak's own tanks freeing his capital from his own dictatorship.

In the pantomime world of Mubarak himself – and of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Washington – the man who still claims to be president of Egypt swore in the most preposterous choice of vice-president in an attempt to soften the fury of the protesters – Omar Suleiman, Egypt's chief negotiator with Israel and his senior intelligence officer, a 75-year-old with years of visits to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and four heart attacks to his credit. How this elderly apparatchik might be expected to deal with the anger and joy of liberation of 80 million Egyptians is beyond imagination. When I told the demonstrators on the tank around me the news of Suleiman's appointment, they burst into laughter. ...<cont>


http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-egypt-death-throes-of-a-dictatorship-2198444.html
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 11:13 pm
@JPB,
3:08am Former Minister Mustafa Al Gindi, a former member of Egypt's parliament, from the opposition Wafd political party tells Al Jazeera that Egyptians want democracy and this is the only plausible way forward for the country.

2:24am Cairo residents say that the military is guarding only certain areas of the city and seen as unable to provide protection for citizens. The army's role is seen as critical.

1:30am Tourists have been warned by many governments to stay away from Egypt, but travelers are not yet being evacuated. Meanwhile, protesters continue to defy the overnight curfew in several Egyptian cities.

1:22am Ayman Mohyeldin tweets: "shift of mood from celebratory 2 tense as night fell & absence of security on streets created problem 4 law & order".

12:45am Tunisia remains unstable, Egypt is on the brink, and pro-Western Arab countries such as Jordan and Yemen remain vulnerable to escalating anti-government protests over high unemployment, rising prices and political repression. View our interactive slideshow from demonstrations across the region -- The Domino effect: Pan-Arab unrest.

Here's a link to the slideshow:

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/201112920129971160.html
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  4  
Reply Sat 29 Jan, 2011 11:21 pm
@msolga,
msolga wrote:

I genuinely didn't understand what you were asking me to comment on. So I asked you to clarify. And now I do understand , because you just told me.

Quote:
Because the situation in Egypt (and throughout the Muslim world) today is a direct consequence of the historical events I cited.


This will not satisfy you, I know, but I am no expert of Egyptian history.
(I don't think I've suggested I am?) I know something of the events you've mentioned, but I'm not in anywhere near an informed enough position to connect those events of the past to the anti-government events we are witnessing today.
That's my truthful response to your question, whether you accept it or not.
But I'd be interested to hear what you have to say about this subject. (I don't believe we've touched on it in this, in discussion till now, so I'd be interested.)
Could I ask you how you see the connections between the past history of Egypt & the anti-government protests happening now?


Well if your ignorance of history is that great then I suggest you remedy it by some reading and, in the interim, limit your expressions of opinion accordingly.

Let me put the situation this way. Until 1950 nearly all of the Muslims in the world were ruled by Europeans. From Morrocco to Central Asia and Indonesia they were ruiled by either Russians, French, British or Dutch masters. This was the result of European Empire building that started in Asia in the early 18th century and continued through the Caucasus and North Africa in the early 19th century, and was completed with the British & French overthrow of the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century. Prior to that the Moslem world was ruled roughly by three empires, each with a succession of rulers, mostly intolerant autocrats, but some very liberal and enlightened rulers. The empires were the Persian/Iranian/Sassanid empire; the Mogul Empire in what is now Afghanistan, Pakistan and India; and the Arab (later Ottoman) empire centered first in bagdad and later in Constantinople,

The borders of today's Muslim countries, from Uzbekistan to Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Egypt, Lybia. Tunis, Algeria, Morocco, and most of the rest were drawn, not by the peoples of those countries, but by colonial powers,; Russia, Britain, and France. Indeed Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan were literally the creation of the British empire after their extensive campaign to take down the Ottoman Empire, and expand their own, during WWI. Borders were drawn arbitrarily and mostly to create advantage for the colonial masters. Thus Bahrain and Kuwait were created by the British precisely to put the then known oil fields in the hands of small, weak rulers whom they could dominate for their own interests. They tried this with Iraq as well but got kicked out in the 1920s in a popular Arab uprising there.

During the lead in to WWI the British & French concluded a secret treaty (Sykes-Picot Agreement) in which they divided up the spoils of the Ottoman Empire they had not yet destroyed. The French were to get what is now Lebanon and Syria and nothern Iraq (Mosul) while the British got everything else. Then known oil deposits were a major factor in the plan. (They didn't bother to inform the U.S. of this agreement as they lured us in to bailing them out in France.) In addition the British made two solemn but contradictory promises to different groups concerning what was then called Palestine. They promised it both to European Zionists as a homeland for Jews, and also to the Hashemite family (then the rulers of Mecca and Medina) as an Arab kingdom. This duplicity came to a head after WWII when the British simply abandoned the region and the contending parties, both of whom they deceived and betrayed, and turned it over to the nascent United Nations.

Meanwhile, long before WWI, the British secured a rather unqualified oil concession (the D'Arcy agreement) from the then very weak Persian King. Later (1920s) when ther Persians tried to improve the terms the British staged a coup and installed Reza Shah as ruler (the father of the Shah deposed in 1980) who was more compliant. Much later in 1954 a democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadeq of Persia (now called Iran) tried again to negotiate a better deal for their oil with the British (he wanted the same 50-50 deal the U.S. had recently concluded with the Saudis - the British were giving the Iranians only 10% of the profits and, since they kep the books, even they were much understated). U.S. President Truman tried to persuade the British government to negotiate, but without success. The Labor governmment there said, in effect, they needed to screw Iranians to pay social welfare benefits to the British people (things were tough there after WWII). After our election they persuaded the incoming President Eisenhower to help them execute a planned coup that would oust Mossadeq and reinstall Reza Shah's son who promised to be more compliant. Eisenhower agreed (we had already pressured the British to give up most of their empire and perhaps thought they had gone through enough). It can't be proven, but there is evidence that Eisenhower later regretted his action and that was the reason he turned so bitterly on the British when, just a little over twoi years later they, along with the Israelis and the French invaded Egypt to take the Suerz canal.

With respect to Egypt specifically, it was in the 19th century nominally a part of the Ottoman Empire. However for most of the century it exercised nearly complete autonomy under its own rulers. Indeed the Suez canal was constructed by a French firm under a contract let by the Viceroy of Egypt, said Pasha. The canal was completed and much later following a stock scam British investors gained control of the Canal company and the British empire used this as a pretext to, in effect, seize the canal and Egypt to boot.

After WWII and the Nazi attempt to exterminate the European Jewish population , together with the subsequent unwillingness of European countries to repatriate or compensate the surviving displaced Jews, there was a mass exodus of European Jews to Palestine - to fulfill the British promise to the Zionists. As the only western country with a substantial surviving Jewish population, the United States found itself as the princiupal supporter of the then new Jewish state.

This is merely a sketch of some of the highlights of the relevant history. However, I hope it is enough to stimulate you to ask yourself just who it is that the Arabs are so pissed off at, and what are the underlying issues here.












[/quote]
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 12:13 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Well if your ignorance of history is that great.....

(Always the charmer.)

I did not say I was completely ignorant of history, George.
I said: "I know something of the events you've mentioned, but I'm not in anywhere near in an informed enough position to connect those events of the past to the anti-government events we are witnessing today".

Quote:
I hope it is enough to stimulate you to ask yourself just who it is that the Arabs are so pissed off at, and what are the underlying issues here.

So are you saying historical grievances are an important motivational factor in these current uprisings in Egypt (especially)?
That's what I was asking you to enlarge on.
I can fully appreciate (& am aware of) historical grievances with past colonial rulers. I am not denying that Arabs have every reason to be "pissed off" with how they have been treated in the past.
But my understanding is that these present uprisings are largely motivated by extreme discontent with the current government leaders of Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia & Jordan.


hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 01:12 am
Not Bush, but close enough....

Quote:
Egypt protests show George W. Bush was right about freedom in the Arab world
By Elliott Abrams
Saturday, January 29, 2011; 5:45 PM

For decades, the Arab states have seemed exceptions to the laws of politics and human nature. While liberty expanded in many parts of the globe, these nations were left behind, their "freedom deficit" signaling the political underdevelopment that accompanied many other economic and social maladies. In November 2003, President George W. Bush laid out this question:

"Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism? Are they alone never to know freedom and never even to have a choice in the matter?"

The massive and violent demonstrations underway in Egypt, the smaller ones in Jordan and Yemen, and the recent revolt in Tunisia that inspired those events, have affirmed that the answer is no and are exploding, once and for all, the myth of Arab exceptionalism
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/28/AR2011012803144.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 01:28 am
@hawkeye10,
Well that's one perspective on the current state of affairs.

Here's an alternative view which readers to this thread might take into consideration as well.... :


Quote:
...The dramatic scenes on Egyptian streets became an indictment of not just Obama's softly-softly approach but decades of short-sighted American foreign policy. The State Department has never had any illusions about the regime, condemning its "poor" human rights record and acknowledging that Egyptian security forces use "unwarranted lethal force". Egyptian police officers tortured 32 people to death between June 2007 and March 2008, while security forces killed four demonstrators in Mahalla al-Kubra, a textile town in the Nile delta, during protests against low wages in April 2008.

In the same year, US aid to Egypt totalled $1.7bn (£1.1bn), of which almost $1.3bn was in the form of military assistance; no wonder Mubarak's forces are well armed. This is Egypt's reward for making peace with Israel.

The two countries receive a third of the entire US aid budget each year; the ratio is two-to-one in Israel's favour, so that Egypt (population 79 million) got $1.55bn last year while Israel (population 7.5 million) got almost $3.2bn.

It's astonishing that successive US administrations haven't used this generous endowment to insist that Mubarak introduce political reforms, but Clinton's uncertain performance suggests that regional "stability" remains as pressing a consideration as human rights. Only in the past couple of days have Obama, Clinton and Blair realised that Egypt's much-lauded stability might be a chimera. ...


http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/joan-smith/joan-smith-egypts-lesson-to-obama-prefer-rights-to-tyranny-2198377.html
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  4  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 01:28 am
@msolga,
A common thread throughout the Islamic world is the lack of democratic government. Virtually every Muslim country is ruled by either a secular or religious authoritarian government. The traditional islamic model was for a form of theocratic rule. A fact of Islamic history is that they have little tradition of distinct state and religious authority. Significantly there was no equivalent of the 16th & 17th century enlightenment ecperienced by the Christian nations of Europe.

As a result the collision of the Islamic culture with the modern age brought many social and political stresses - and these were all amplified by the unfortunate colonial history outlined above. The only secular political structures so far developed in the Muslim world (except perhaps for Malaysia, and as may be developing in Indonesia) have been authoritarian, many based on the Baathist model in part copied from National Socialist Germany. These tyrannies have run their course and sadly their only organized opposition in most cases is retrograde fanatical Muslim theocracy. The sad legacy of British and French colonialism is the rejection of western liberal government by Muslims worldwide. In major part the real rationalization of President Bush's decision to intervene in Iraq was the goal of establishing a modern republic with democratic elements in the one country in the Muslim world which for historical reasons seemed most likely to accept it. History will be the judge of this effort.

What we are witnessing in the countrties you listed is the rejection of largely secular tyrannies. What will follow is as yet unclear. but in most cases the Islamists are the best organized and most likely replacements.

The secular government established in Egypt by General Nassar was modelled on the German inspired Baathist movement, but with the Army in charge - and later the Soviets invited in, en masse. Nassar was succeeded by Sadat, who after the 1973 war kicked the Soviets out and offered peace to Israel. Our aid to Egypt was established then as a condition of that peace. The Army ran Egypt and it was interested in weapons - though we negiotiated very favorable (to them) trade relations with the Egyptians. Sadat, incidently was assasinated by Muslim extremists. He was replaced by the then head of the Egyptian Air Force, Mubarack.

The sappy commentary about missed opportunities to use aid to reform historically entrenched political systems is unrealistic in the extreme. Europe is the immediate neighbor to all this (and the historical creator of many of the contemporary problems), and it has done nothing.

Perhaps in atonement for its role in the Gallipoli invasion, Australia should give it a try.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 01:41 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
What we are witnessing in the countrties you listed is the rejection of largely secular tyrannies. What will follow is as yet unclear. but in most cases the Islamists are the best organized and most likely replacements
In Egypt it appears that only the military is prepared to run the country if current political leadership goes. It would seem that we are looking at the Pakistan model, which is not exactly great news.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 02:04 am
@georgeob1,
Thank you for your civil post, George.
(I sincerely appreciate that.)

I disagree with you about the reasons you give for the US invasion of Iraq, but I (mostly) agree with your assessment of the autocratic nature of governance in a number of Muslim countries.

But it seems to me what we are witnessing on the streets of Egypt right now is a direct challenge, a rejection of the very type of autocratic rule which you described.

The (Egyptians') challenge to their government's authority & ruthless control was initially instigated by educated young people, via facebook, mobile phones .... it seems to me that they are extremely frustrated with the lack of opportunity under the type of autocratic government you have described.

Perhaps many of those those now demonstrating on the streets of Egypt have more in common with us then we'd previously thought? ... or, to put it another way, the impact of technology means that we can now actually "hear " what they are thinking, we now have a lot more insight into what they actually want, for the first time.

Perhaps their aspirations in life are not that much different to ours?
Perhaps we have more in common with them than we'd previously thought?

Perhaps the attitudes of dictatorial governments & their own citizens' aspirations are two very different things?




hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 02:04 am
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
A senior Egyptian military official intends to return home on Friday from the United States, cutting short a visit for defence talks as unrest sweeps his country, the Pentagon said.

Lieutenant General Sami Enan, chief of staff of Egypt's armed forces, was leading a delegation in defence talks that started on Wednesday and were set to run through Feb. 2.

.
.
.

The country's armed forces -- the world's 10th biggest with more than 468,000 members -- have been at the heart of power since army officers staged an overthrow of the monarchy in 1952.

All four Egyptian presidents since then have come from the military, now led by Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, 75, who is defence minister and commander in chief
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/1/29/worldupdates/2011-01-29T023932Z_01_NOOTR_RTRMDNC_0_-544911-1&sec=Worldupdates

It is still possible for one of Mubarak's cronies to run a caretaker government, but I think at the end of the day the military decides who takes over, and it will not be the Islamists.....they dont have the power to take on the military from what I hear.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 02:12 am
@msolga,
I was on active duty at a senior level in the Navy while the Iraq war was being planned and know from direct experience what was being planned and considered, and the thinking behind it. You are simply wrong.

We shall see what emerges from the current disorder. It is likely to be yet another authoritarian government - whether theocratic or military is as yet unclear. Egypt's problems (and those of Yemen and Tunis) aren't just political - there is widespread poverty and a lack of education, worse most of the educational institutions are intensely theocratic and anti modern. These are transitions that are beyond the power of cell phones, text messages and the internet to alter - and they take considerable time to change.. They certainly have not been effective with the theocratic authoritarian government of Iran.

In any event this situation is not and never has been in the control of the United States.

Have you considered the possibility that you read too many sappy British newspapers (written in the senescence of a once powerful state) and too little history?
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 02:30 am
@georgeob1,
Regarding the rightness or wrongness of the Iraq invasion, George, we will have to agree to disagree.

Quote:
We shall see what emerges from the current disorder. It is likely to be yet another authoritarian government ..

Yes, we will have to see what happens.
And I sorely hope it is not just another authoritarian government.
Hopefully, whatever the outcome, it will mean a much better deal of the ordinary people of Egypt. And about time, too!
Also, it would be good if we in the west stopped considering them as the "other".
I think we have a lot more in common than differences, in terms of aspirations in life & so much more, than we've been led to believe.

georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 02:49 am
@msolga,
I didn't assert whether the Iraqi invasion was right or wrong. Instead I indicated the real reasons for it. Even they could be right or wrong. Only history will reveal the truth. Even if that succeeds, the undertaking may have still been wrong for other reasons.

I don't believe that thinking adults are "led to believe" anything. We all know from experience that most of what we read and hear on the media is at best incomplete and typically wrong on important points - sometimes deliberately deceptive. One merely has to visit a library and read old newspapers to see that.

We all share the same common human nature. However that hasn't ever stopped wars, tyranny, oppression and destruction.

I recall reading Robert Hughes' "Fatal Shore" about ten years ago. Recall that England was then the most liberal and advanced government in the world.
 

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