Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

You need to listen to fox "the news that I have prepared for you!

One man, one vote, one election is not the sort of democracy that Egyptians want or need.

Betting on Egypt democracy is Israel’s only choice
By Carlo Strenger
Published 14:17 04.02.11
Latest update 14:17 04.02.11

Nobody can be certain that cold peace between Israel and Egypt will survive Mubarak's fall and the emergence of a new political system.

For decades Israel’s overall strategy was based on two conflicting assumptions. One is that Israel’s strategic position depends on the survival of authoritarian regimes like those of Mubarak and Ben Ali. Common “wisdom” has been that the alternative to these dictatorships is Islamic fundamentalism, and this means endless, often armed conflict with Israel’s neighbors. The Iranian revolution of 1978 and the Algerian elections in the 1990s seem to indicate that repressive regimes that democratize indeed move towards Islamization.

There has also been another common wisdom - which Netanyahu has been identified with: there will be no peace in the Middle East, and Israel will know no security as long as there is no democracy in Arab countries. This theory is based on the rather strong evidence that developed democracies tend not to go to war with each other, because, once a strong middle class is established, war is contrary to the interests of the people.

The problem in Israel’s position is rather obvious: the support for corrupt regimes and the call for democracy mostly contradict each other, and this has not just been Israel’s problem, but also that of the U.S., which often supported autocratic regimes. ...<cont>

The problem in Israel’s position is rather obvious: the support for corrupt regimes and the call for democracy mostly contradict each other, and this has not just been Israel’s problem, but also that of the U.S., which often supported autocratic regimes. ...<cont>

...For Israel, it is crucial not to use the events in Egypt to argue, as Moshe Arens has done in recent days, that Israel can only make peace with Arab dictators, because the Arab people always oppose peace with Israel. The Al Jazeera leaks have shown beyond any doubt that there is a Palestinian partner for peace. If Israel will show that it is capable of relating to the Palestinians from a position of mutuality and to truly respect their dignity and desire for self-determination, the Arab peoples around us may realize that the wellbeing of the whole area depends on moving from confrontation to cooperation, from tyranny to democracy.

Democracy in Egypt will be short lived if a majority votes for an autocratic regime that prohibits future elections.

I'm not predicting it will happen, but it could be the case that given the opportunity for a pure democratic election, the people of Egypt could vote in another dictatorship.

Algeria moves to stave off unrest

Opposition groups say thousands of police drafted in to surround capital a day ahead of planned pro-democracy protests.

Last Modified: 11 Feb 2011 20:35 GMT

Many demonstrators in Algeria have been inspired by the events unfolding in Egypt and Tunisia [AFP]

Thousands of police are reportedly being drafted into the Algerian capital ahead of planned pro-democracy marches, opposition groups have said.

Said Sadi, the head of the Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD), said authorities were moving to prevent Saturday's protests in Algiers from taking place.

"Trains have been stopped and other public transport will be as well," he told the AFP news agency.

According to Sadi, around 10,000 police officers were coming into reinforce the 20,000 that blocked the last protest staged on January 22, when five people were killed and more than 800 hurt in clashes.

Attempts to appease

The latest rally is being organised by the National Co-ordination for Change and Democracy (CNCD), a three-week-old umbrella group of opposition parties, civil society movements and unofficial unions inspired by the mass protests in Tunisia and Egypt.

Demonstrators in the oil-rich nation have been protesting over the last few months against unemployment, high food costs, poor housing and corruption - similar issues that fuelled the uprisings in other north African nations.

At least 12 people have set themselves alight in protest against the government since January, four of those dying.

Earlier this month, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the president, said he would lift emergency powers, address unemployment and allow democratic marches to take place in the country, in a bid to stave off unrest.

However, protests in Algiers remain banned.

Financial support

Bouteflika's attempt to appease protesters is just one of many undertaken by Arab governments concerned about spreading unrest in the region.

In Bahrain, the king offered each family $2,650 on Friday.

The small oil producer is considered the most vulnerable of the Gulf Arab countries to unrest, although seen as unlikely to fall in the same way as Tunisia and Egypt.

The Bahraini government has made several concessions in recent weeks, such as higher social spending and offering to release some minors arrested during a security crackdown against Shia groups last August.

The official Bahrain news agency released a report saying: "To praise the tenth anniversary of the National Action Charter and in recognition of the people of Bahrain.... His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ... will provide the amount of one thousand dinars for each family of Bahrain after adopting necessary legal procedures."

Activists have called for protests on February 14, the tenth anniversary of Bahrain's constitution, but it is not yet clear how widespread they will be.

I'm finding your quite strong comments about what you expect to happen/not happen in Egypt quite puzzling.

Earlier on today I posted a Robert Fisk article about real concerns about where the military leadership might take Egypt, despite what the protesters might actually want.

Perhaps the shadow of the army is too dark an image to invoke in the aftermath of so monumental a revolution in Egypt. Siegfried Sassoon's joy on the day of the 1918 Armistice, the end of the First World War – when everyone also suddenly burst out singing – was genuine and deserved. Yet that peace led to further immense suffering. And the Egyptians who have fought for their future in the streets of their nation over the past three weeks will have to preserve their revolution from internal and external enemies if they are to achieve a real democracy. The army has decided to protect the people. But who will curb the power of the army?