Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

...History may later decide that the army's lack of faith in Mubarak effectively lost his presidency after three decades of dictatorship, secret police torture and government corruption. Confronted by even greater demonstrations on the streets of Egypt today, even the army could not guarantee the safety of the nation. Yet for Mubarak's opponents, today will not be a day of joy and rejoicing and victory but a potential bloodbath.

But was this a victory for Mubarak or a military coup d'état? Can Egypt ever be free? For the army generals to insist upon his departure was as dramatic as it was dangerous. Are they, a state within a state, now truly the guardians of the nation, defenders of the people – or will they continue to support a man who must be judged now as close to insanity? The chains which bound the military to the corruption of Mubarak's regime were real. Are they to stand by democracy – or cement a new Mubarak regime?.....

....as yesterday afternoon's events proved all too clearly, it was the senior generals – who enjoy the luxury of hotel chains, shopping malls, real estate and banking concessions from the same corrupt regime – who permitted Mubarak to survive. At an ominous meeting of the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Defence Minister Mohamed Tantawi – one of Mubarak's closest friends – agreed to meet the demands of the millions of democracy protesters, without stating that the regime would itself be dissolved. Mubarak himself, commander-in-chief of the army, was not permitted to attend. ....

....It was too early, last night, for the millions in Tahrir Square to understand the legal complexities of Mubarak's speech. But it was patronising, self-serving and immensely dangerous. The Egyptian constitution insists that presidential power must pass to the speaker of parliament, a colourless Mubarak crony called Fatih Srour, and elections – fair ones, if this can be imagined – held within 60 days. But many believe that Suleiman may choose to rule by some new emergency law and then push Mubarak out of power, staking out a timetable for new and fraudulent elections and yet another terrible epoch of dictatorship. The truth, however, is that ....

But neither the army nor Vice-President Suleiman are likely to be able to face the far greater demonstrations planned for today, a fact that was conveyed to 83-year-old Mubarak by Tantawi himself, standing next to Suleiman. Tantawi and another general – believed to be the commander of the Cairo military area – called Washington, according to a senior Egyptian officer, to pass on the news to Robert Gates at the Pentagon. It must have been a sobering moment. For days, the White House had been grimly observing the mass demonstrations in Cairo, fearful that they would turn into a mythical Islamist monster, frightened that Mubarak might leave, even more terrified he might not.

The events of the past 12 hours have not, alas, been a victory for the West. American and European leaders who rejoiced at the fall of communist dictatorships have sat glumly regarding the extraordinary and wildly hopeful events in Cairo – a victory of morality over corruption and cruelty – with the same enthusiasm as many East European dictators watched the fall of their Warsaw Pact nations. Calls for stability and an "orderly" transition of power were, in fact, appeals for Mubarak to stay in power – as he is still trying to do – rather than a ringing endorsement of the demands of the overwhelming pro-democracy movement that should have struck him down.

To the horror of Egyptians and the world, President Hosni Mubarak – haggard and apparently disoriented – appeared on state television last night to refuse every demand of his opponents by staying in power for at least another five months.

I see Obama as between a rock and a hard place. This is precisely what he called out for last week when he threw his support behind Suleiman. What's he to say now?

The Egyptian people have been told that there was a transition of authority, but it is not yet clear that this transition is immediate, meaningful or sufficient. Too many Egyptians remain unconvinced that the government is serious about a genuine transition to democracy, and it is the responsibility of the government to speak clearly to the Egyptian people and the world. The Egyptian government must put forward a credible, concrete and unequivocal path toward genuine democracy, and they have not yet seized that opportunity.[...]

An open letter in response to your truculent, deeply misguided speech last night may seem presumptuous. But your good humor during meetings we had over the years encourages me to appeal to you urgently. You have pushed the Egyptian crisis to critical mass. The impending explosion could be devastating to your place in history, your country and mine, and to the entire Arab world - unless you pull back immediately.

When you scheduled your national address, I thought you understood that Egypt's uprising had reached a turning point similar to ones I have witnessed in Poland, East Germany, the Philippines and, most particularly, China. That point arrives when workers strike to support youthful reformers.

The choices for an authoritarian regime then narrow to ceding significant ground or striking back with brute force. You have not moved the real choices beyond those. But you must do so now, even though it means surrendering control to a national unity cabinet and becoming the symbol of all that has gone wrong in Egypt the past 30 years. The Hosni Mubarak I knew could live with that. And you may not be able to live without it.

You were once a man capable of laughing at yourself. Remember when people called you "the Laughing Cow" after you became president because your broad bovine smile resembled the wrapper of a popular French cheese? You accepted being seen by a succession of American presidents as a stolid, unimaginative but useful ally who planted his feet firmly in favor of continuing peace with Israel.

You once stopped mid-interview to ask me the name of "that politician who went out with Donna Rice." I saw a faint smile play across your face. You, too, understood that you had demonstrated a grasp of the human dimension of politics stronger than your understanding of Gary Hart's (or anyone else's) arms control policies.

Such self-awareness is vital in resolving this confrontation. The Egyptian army has cleverly positioned itself between you and the protesters. It is poised to crush either - or both - if its interests are gravely threatened - and you are a liability to the army.

Senior officers have enriched themselves with your connivance, but those under 40 struggle to make ends meet. A split in their ranks is the gravest threat to your nation's stability. The army will not risk it.

You should also recognize the remarkable, promising nature of the mass uprising in Tahrir Square. These protests have not drawn their energy from hatred and prejudice toward the United States and/or Israel. They may in fact reflect a new and authentic Egyptian nationalism that must be nurtured, not crushed. That nationalism can become the regional counterweight to the fanaticism of the Iranian revolution that you and fellow Arab leaders have sought but been unable to create.

And you have a responsibility to Arab and American leaders who have supported you. The longer people occupy the streets of Cairo, the more radical the outcome will be. Egypt cannot afford - as China could after Tiananmen - bloody repression that isolates it internationally. The rise of military leaders through a brutal coup or a government of civilians who reach power through bloody revolt will shake all Arab regimes and spur extremism through the region.

Your jabs at the Obama administration's "intervention" do not help anybody. The United States has bobbed and weaved with each day's developments; this White House is all about tactics, politics and immediacy. Each response to Egypt's crisis has been calibrated more for its effect on the American electorate than on global stability.

But Arab leaders see that kind of maneuvering as weakness. "When America is weak, the rats come out," says one Arab official, referring to turmoil in Lebanon and Yemen. Your stubbornness can only worsen U.S.-Arab relations and ultimately endanger your Arab allies.

A road map for stability can still be traced. Announce immediately a credible truth and reconciliation commission to provide a bridge from past abuses to a better future. Ask the United Nations to help establish an electoral commission and supervise presidential and parliamentary balloting in mid-September. Appoint a provisional national unity cabinet led by reformers. It could include establishment figures such as Vice President Omar Suleiman, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa and newly minted reformer Mohamed ElBaradei, on the condition that they retire from politics in September. Such action could buy you time as a figurehead president and let you live out your days in Egypt.

"This not about myself," you said Thursday. "It is about Egypt." Precisely, Mr. President. Cede power now. Save your country.

The writer is a contributing editor to The Post. Source

Forget the Saudis with their offer to fill the financial void if U.S. aid is cut off.

Major Media Miss:

Muslim Brotherhood's Stated Goal Has Long Been 'To Seize U.S.'

H2O MAN wrote:

Major Media Miss:

Muslim Brotherhood's Stated Goal Has Long Been 'To Seize U.S.'

That's my goal too, "to sieze the U.S.".

You will need the help of plainoldfool, cyclotroll, JT, Cimposter and the rest of A2Ks misguided misfits.

Best of luck.