Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

H2O MAN wrote:

You will need the help of plainoldfool, cyclotroll, JT, Cimposter and the rest of A2Ks misguided misfits.

Best of luck.

Thanks. I have to get some breakfast first, but I'll get right on it after that.

Egypt's pro-reform campaigner Mohamed ElBaradei called on the army to intervene in the country's political crisis, predicting "Egypt will explode" in wake of Mr Mubarak's defiance.

"The Army must save the country now," said a Tweet from the Nobel Peace laureate and leading democracy advocate's Twitter account.

"I call on the Egyptian army to immediately interfere to rescue Egypt. The credibility of the army is on the line."

The Muslim Brotherhood is bad news for the middle east and the
US, but it sounds like the Obama administration supports them 100%.

In Tahrir Square, meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered, chanting slogans against Mubarak and calling for the military to join them in their demands.

Our correspondent at the square said the "masses" of pro-democracy campaigners there appeared to have "clear resolution" and "bigger resolve" to achieve their goals than ever before.

He also said, however, that protesters were "confused by mixed messages" coming from the army, which has at times told them that their demands will be met, yet in communiques and other statements supported Mubarak's staying in power until at least September.

Army statement

In a statement read out on state television at midday, the military announced that it would lift a 30-year-old emergency law but only "as soon as the current circumstances end".

The military said it would also guarantee changes to the constitution as well as a free and fair election, and it called for normal business activity to resume.

Many protesters, hoping for Mubarak's resignation, had anticipated a much stronger statement.

Al Jazeera's correspondent in Tahrir Square said people there were hugely disappointed and vowed to take the protests to "a last and final stage".

"They're frustrated, they're angry, and they say protests need to go beyond Liberation [Tahrir] Square, to the doorstep of political institutions," she said.

Protest organisers have called for 20 million people to come out on "Farewell Friday" in a final attempt to force Mubarak to step down.

'Anything can happen'

The army's role is seen as critical in shaping how the crisis will now develop in the coming days. Speaking before Communique No 2 was issued, Rosemary Hollis of City University, London, said there was "a distinct possibility" the armed forces would now split.

Hollis said there were a couple of ways this split could go. One would be a division between older, senior officers, and younger ones from the middle ranks.

"The most senior ranks are the same age as Mubarak and Suleiman," she said. "The younger men are their [the demonstrators'] generation. They will identify less with Mubarak and more with the future of the country they want to be part of."

Hollis said the other way the armed forces could split would be ideologically, between those who wanted to concentrate on "law and order" and a "managed transition under Mubarak and co" and felt this would be "preferable to the dangers of a transition to democracy", and on the other side those "embracing change with all its uncertainty".

She had been told that this ideological split could run along the lines of the air force – Mubarak's former service – and republican guard on one side, and "everyone else", including the regular army, on the side of change.

Hollis said: "Militaries aren't good at transitions to democracy. They're more comfortable with continuity." But, on the other hand, "the army has not been clearly on the side of Mubarak" during this crisis.

Whatever happens, she said, "the army will have the final say".

An Egyptian army officer who joined protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square told the Reuters news agency that 15 other middle-ranking officers had also gone over to the demonstrators.

"The armed forces' solidarity movement with the people has begun," Major Ahmed Ali Shouman said. "Some 15 officers … have joined the people's revolution," he said, listing their ranks ranging from captain to lieutenant colonel. Our goals and the people's are one."

Another army major walked up to Shouman while he was talking with the Reuters reporter in Tahrir and introduced himself, saying: "I have also joined the cause."