Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

I agree with Setanta
( on this particular point ).

David

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That assumes that his leadership is founded on U.S. support. In fact, the only leadership which matters to him is his leadership of the military. As long as they are content that he will take care of them, the U.S. be damned.

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@Setanta,

Quote:

That assumes that his leadership is founded on U.S. support. In fact, the only leadership which matters to him is his leadership of the military

He has certainly has depended on US support & US foreign aid - Egypt being the second largest recipient after Israel.

And the US has certainly depended on Egypt's support in the region.

From today's Guardian editorial:

Quote:

..The revolution threatens not only Hosni Mubarak's regime but the strategy the US and Britain have constructed in the Middle East. The hesitancy with which President Mubarak reacted last night was matched only by the perceptible shift in the emphasis of the statements by the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton. Only two days ago she said the US assessment was that the Egyptian government was stable and was looking for ways to respond to the legitimate interests of the Egyptian people. The primary importance of keeping a key Arab ally and Middle East interlocutor stable was also emphasised yesterday by Tony Blair, the Quartet's envoy. Faced with the conflicting needs to keep an Arab partner of Israel afloat and to respond to demands for democratic reform, the US would choose the first every time. After yesterday's events, Ms Clinton's calls to lift internet controls and respond to the grievances of Egyptians became more strident. But it was too little, too late. Ms Clinton's initial support for the Mubarak regime had not been lost on Egyptians battling for their freedoms.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/29/editorial-egypt-mubarak-pivotal-moment-elbaradei

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@msolga,

So what? That does not mean that the crucial support of the army upon which he relies can only be assured by the continued receipt of U.S. aid. In addition, the House of Representatives is the source of all money bills--whether or not Clinton and Obama are willing to continue to support Mubarak is not relevant. It is up to the Congress to decide if Egypt continues to get aid.

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@Setanta,

Well we'll have to agree to disagree on this, Setanta.
I see his government & the US as having been mutually dependent, to date.
What happens next, is anyone's guess.
Clearly from reports in today's newspaper reports from Egypt, the anti-government protesters are not happy with simply changing the composition of the government while retaining him as leader.
So whether the US continues to support him (& the reforms he's promised) or not & whether he can maintain in control in Egypt without that support, who knows?

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@msolga,

Which means, essentially, that you are content to be ill-informed on the matter. The United States is in no way dependent upon the government of Mubarak. That's about the silliest thing you've said here so far. I'll tell you who knows if he can maintain his position in Egypt, and that's the leaders of the Egyptian armed forces. What Mr. Obama, Miss Clinton, or anyone else in the U.S. think about him is neither here nor there. I see you have completely ignored the point about the United States Congress. What Mr. Obama and Miss Clinton say has little or nothing to do with whether or not Egypt will continue to get American dollars.

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I hope that Egypt will not
fall into the hands of fanatical Moslems.

David

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@msolga,

What still astonishes me is the Christians guarded the Friday plrayers of Muslims yesterday in many places.

And: that you don't see police anymore, only the army ... and they are #silent as well.

(from the live stream, a minute ago)

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@OmSigDAVID,

This is one of the points i was stressing earlier, in pointing out that Mubarak's hold on power depends on the army. Fundamentalist Muslims took over Algeria in parliamentary elections, so the army--not wishing to give up their western life style--overthrew the government in a coup and have maintained their hold on power ever since. For so long as Mubarak has the support of the militay, he remains in power. Even if he is ousted, there will be no religiously-based government if the military decides not to tolerate it.

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@Setanta,

Quote:

Which means, essentially, that you are content to be ill-informed on the matter. The United States is in no way dependent upon the government of Mubarak. That's about the silliest thing you've said here so far.

Setanta, I have read report after report after report about how the US government is walking a delicate tightrope, acknowledging the demands of the protesters while attempting to encourage Mubarak's government to introduce reforms.
Clearly many commentators believe there is considerable US concern about maintaining its most powerful ally in the region. Which has happened to be Mubarak's government for 30 years now.
No amount of telling me that I'm silly or ill-informed gets around that.
Go read a few of these articles for yourself at the BBC, Al Jazeera, the NYT, the Independent, ABC news, etc, etc, etc ...
This is not some convenient theory I've simply invented.

If you choose to believe something else, fine.
You do not have to agree with me.
By all means post some other perspectives which reflect your views.
I'll be happy to read & consider them.
But please note, I am not patronizing you for having a different perspective to mine.

And now, good night.

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It seems that Mubarak's son and family are in London/UK already.
And their are rumours that the Egyptian army 'forced' Mubarak to institute the new vice-president.

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From Reuters:

Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at the London School of Economics

This is the Arab world's Berlin moment. The authoritarian wall has fallen – and that's regardless of whether Mubarak survives or not. It goes beyond Mubarak. The barrier of fear has been removed. It is really the beginning of the end of the status quo in the region. The introduction of the military speaks volumes about the failure of the police to suppress the protesters. The military has stepped in and will likely seal any vacuum of authority in the next few weeks. Mubarak is deeply wounded. He is bleeding terribly. We are witnessing the beginning of a new era.

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Egyptian Nobel prize winning novelist Ahdaf Soueif:

"If I were not writing this, I would still be out on the street. Every single person I know is out there; people who have never been to protests are wrapping scarves around their faces and learning that sniffing vinegar helps you get through teargas.

Once, a long time ago, my then young son, watching a young man run to help an old man who had dropped a bag in the middle of the street, said: 'The thing about Egypt is that everyone is very individual, but also part of a great co-operative project'. Today, we are doing what we do best, and what this regime has tried to destroy: we have come together, as individuals, in a great co-operative effort to reclaim our country."

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From The Guardian blog:

The opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei has called on Mubarak to stand down and set a framework for a transition of power.

He told Al Jazeera television that only the president could end the unrest across the country.

ElBaradei said Mubarak's speech in which he dismissed the cabinet was dissapointing as it did not go far enough towards addressing the people's desire for change.

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I'm guessing they're referring to western influence in the Middle East. Nasty thing, that freedom of expression.

Quote:

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has, unsurprisingly, backed Mubarak, according to the official Saudi Press Agency.

"No Arab or Muslim can tolerate any meddling in the security and stability of Arab and Muslim Egypt by those who infiltrated the people in the name of freedom of expression, exploiting it to inject their destructive hatred," Abdullah said.

"As they condemn this, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its people and government declares it stands with all its resources with the government of Egypt and its people."

The agency said Mubarak assured the king that everything was under control in Egypt, Reuters reports.

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I think there is validity in both sides of the setanta v msolga debate.

Without the continued support of the Egyptian military, Mubarak has no chance of surviving.

However their continued support may depend in large part on whether or not the US backs him as well.

I'm sure the senior military officials enjoy the benefits of US aid and given the choice will not want to lose them. Assuming they have control over the military they can keep Mubarak in power, but given a signal from the US they could also withdraw their support, let him fall and then step back into the ensuing power vacuum and take control of the country "pending near term elections"

While it's true that Congress controls the purse strings, in this matter I don't anticipate it will bang heads with the president.

Top Egyptian military officials remained in Washington through most of the ruckus thus far.

This suggests a few things:

They are confident of their control of the Egyptian military.

They value their ties with the US military very highly.

They have been engaged in discussions with the US government concerning events in Egypt.

As a side note, undoubtedly secret communications are flying everywhere right now. Would US interests be served if those communications were made public?

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Reuters says the Egyptian army has released a statement saying that anyone violating the curfew will be in danger. It is also reporting that an Islamic cleric has gone on state television to warn Muslims that shedding blood is prohibited by religious law.

Also, the curfew has been moved back to 4:00pm (GMT+2)

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Relating to Set's position on the power/influence of the military:

Quote:

Rosemary Hollis, professor of Middle Eastern policy studies at City University, London

I think it will take a couple of days to organise his [Mubarak's] departure if it happens. It's going to be a messy process and there will probably be some bloodshed. I don't think you're going to get into a situation where you have almost a war with the army on one side and the people on the other. The army has to decide whether it stands with Mubarak or the people. It's one of those moments where, as with the fall of communism in Eastern Europe, they can come down to individual lieutenants and soldiers to decide whether they fire on the crowd or not. Different soldiers and groups of soldiers may well make different decisions.

In some ways what we're looking at is what happened in Iran in 1979, but without [Ayatollah] Khomenei. These protests are much more leaderless. As with Tunisia – and with Iran in 1979 – what will probably happen is you get an interim government. The question is what replaces it.

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@JPB,

Far be it from me to speak for set, but I don't think he believes that a unified military, controlled by the old guard is an absolute certainty. To the extent that it is the case and remains so, he's absolutely right that it and not the US will determine what happens in Egypt.

We all know almost anything can happen at times like these, and it's certainly possible that there could be divisions within the military, but the signs seem to be that this is not the case.

Mubarak was once the head of the Egyptian airforce and so his ties to the commanding officers could exist beyond his ability to feather their nests. I don't think they'll go down in flames for him, but a lot of personal loyalty can be developed over 40 or more years.

There's so many moving parts that predictions are difficult at best.

I don't know how widespread this is but yesterday I saw an interesting exchange between a BBC reporter in Egypt and the anchor back in the UK.
It seemed pretty clear that either the reporter was sympathetic to the protestors or very much impressed by their numbers and audacity. He was telling the anchor that he didn't think Mubarak would stay in power, but when asked what he made of the reports (at the time) that the army had regained control of central Cairo and protesters were on the run down side streets, he drew something of a blank and really had no answer.

It must be difficult for someone on the ground in Cairo to main objectivity.

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Another interesting side thought:

On threads related to gun control we have discussed whether or not there is any real point for citizens to be armed with military grade weapons, given the size and strength of the US army. A fair number of members seem to believe it is pointless, because citizen rebels could not defeat the US military.

In Egypt we are seeing what could be a revolution pitting citizens against their nation's military.

I don't think anyone believes that in an all out, armed square off, in which both sides seek victory, the Egyptian citizens can defeat the Egyptian military, however there are quite a few predictions that this "revolution" will prove, to one extent or the other, successful.

I don't know if the protesters have anything other than molotov cocktails and cans of spray paint, and perhaps if they use semi-automatic or automatic weapons, the response by the military will be far less subdued than it has been thus far, but this seems to be the way of modern revolutions.

It's a long way from leaderless street riots to organized resistance, but without the ability to mount credible offense or defense, large mobs and molotov cocktails are not going to get the job done.

A lot is being staked on displays of anger and defiance, and you have to admire the courage and audacity of the protesters, but this could easily end the way the 1989 Bejing protests ended.

I'm not sure how this affects my thoughts on gun control, but it's interesting to watch this unfold and imagine how something similar would play out in the US or any other Western nation.

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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

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