Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

Tell me, what would you see as the motive for foreign aid which goes largely in supporting the military & military investment?

A greater threat than al-Qa'eda

As this dynamic of nonviolent resistance against entrenched regime violence plays out, it is worth noting that so far, Osama bin Laden and his Egyptian deputy, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, have had little - if anything - of substance to say about the revolution in Egypt. What they've failed to ignite with an ideology of a return to a mythical and pure beginning - and a strategy of human bombs, IEDs, and planes turned into missiles - a disciplined, forward-thinking yet amorphous group of young activists and their more experienced comrades, "secular" and "religious" together (to the extent these terms are even relevant anymore), have succeeded in setting a fire with a universal discourse of freedom, democracy and human values - and a strategy of increasingly calibrated chaos aimed at uprooting one of the world's longest serving dictators.

As one chant in Egypt put it succinctly, playing on the longstanding chants of Islamists that "Islam is the solution", with protesters shouting: "Tunisia is the solution."

For those who don't understand why President Obama and his European allies are having such a hard time siding with Egypt's forces of democracy, the reason is that the amalgam of social and political forces behind the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt today - and who knows where tomorrow - actually constitute a far greater threat to the "global system" al-Qa'eda has pledged to destroy than the jihadis roaming the badlands of Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Yemen

Mad as hell

Whether Islamist or secularist, any government of "of the people" will turn against the neoliberal economic policies that have enriched regional elites while forcing half or more of the population to live below the $2 per day poverty line. They will refuse to follow the US or Europe's lead in the war on terror if it means the continued large scale presence of foreign troops on the region's soil. They will no longer turn a blind eye, or even support, Israel's occupation and siege across the Occupied Palestinian territories. They will most likely shirk from spending a huge percentage of their national income on bloated militaries and weapons systems that serve to enrich western defence companies and prop up autocratic governments, rather than bringing stability and peace to their countries - and the region as a whole.

They will seek, as China, India and other emerging powers have done, to move the centre of global economic gravity towards their region, whose educated and cheap work forces will further challenge the more expensive but equally stressed workforces of Europe and the United States.

In short, if the revolutions of 2011 succeed, they will force the creation of a very different regional and world system than the one that has dominated the global political economy for decades, especially since the fall of communism.

This system could bring the peace and relative equality that has so long been missing globally - but it will do so in good measure by further eroding the position of the United States and other "developed" or "mature" economies. More.

Thirteen years ago I watched another ageing autocrat suddenly challenged by a protest movement that seemed to come out of nowhere. The country was Indonesia, like Egypt a mainly Muslim nation and a strategic US ally.

President Suharto was then 76 years old. He had been in power for more than three decades, was praised for bringing stability and economic development to Indonesia, but was also strongly criticised for the repression and corruption that characterised his rule.

Like Hosni Mubarak, Suharto was a former military commander who relied on the army and an elaborate network of security agencies to buttress his hold on power.

By early 1998 he was already in trouble. The financial meltdown that started in Thailand had hit Indonesia hard. The currency had collapsed, living standards were plunging and Suharto had been forced to accept a humiliating bailout from the IMF.

There was plenty of public anger, but there was no organised opposition.

Like Mr Mubarak, President Suharto held elections carefully manipulated to ensure his own party always won.

Opponents were intimidated, bought off or jailed. So no-one saw any threat to his rule - mostly we imagined a chaotic succession scenario after his death, with his unpopular children vying to take his place. More at BBC News

Egyptian Google executive Wael Ghonim is "ready to die" to bring change to Egypt, he said Wednesday.

In an exclusive interview with CNN, Ghonim also said it is "no longer the time to negotiate" with the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

"There's a lot of blood now" that has been spilled, he said.

Ghonim played a key role in organizing the protests that have convulsed Egypt for more than two weeks. He was the administrator of a Facebook page that is widely credited with calling the first protest January 25.

He was released recently after being detained for a week and a half.

Ghonim appealed to top officials in the Egyptian government, saying "If you are true Egyptians, if you are heroic Egyptians, it's time to step down."

Human Rights Watch said Tuesday the number of people killed in the Egyptian protests has reached 302 -- 232 in Cairo, 52 in Alexandria and 18 in Suez.

Ghonim has been treated as a hero since his release. A crowd of thousands cheered him when he spoke recently at Tahrir Square, where hundreds of thousands of protesters have demanded change for the last 16 days.

As he walked down the streets of his upscale neighborhood Wednesday, clutching a laptop, passersby recognized him and ran up to kiss him on the cheek and embrace him. A taxi driver stopped his car in traffic, got out and hugged the 30-year-old executive. Another driver handed a cell phone to Ghonim and asked him to say a few words to his daughter.

Yet Ghonim said he is uncomfortable about being the face of the popular uprising in Egypt.

"This is not about me," he said several times during an hour-long and emotional interview in a relative's Cairo apartment..

He conceded that President Hosni Mubarak has "sacrificed a lot" for Egypt but said the 82-year-old leader represents a system that needs to be replaced. He demanded that Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party be immediately dissolved. He also said, though, that Mubarak should be treated with dignity.Source

After a people's revolution with no leader or political figurehead in a country where opposition parties were weakened by the dictatorship, Tunisian intellectuals said elections would be a challenge. The few political opposition parties are hurriedly moving to set up regional bases and begin political meetings.

The social-democrat, centre-left PDPD party, seen as the strongest opposition movement, supports the interim government as a key step to free and fair elections. The party's secretary general, Maya Jribi, said she had major concerns about the political climate.

"First, the government is being seen as hesitating and vacillating, for example it provoked outrage over its appointment of regional governors linked to the old regime. By dithering and going back on decisions, it sends out a negative message to public opinion that it's not being rigorous enough in rooting out the old regime. The government needs to send a message that it is open to civil society and not just fall back on the closed circle of the old RCD party.

"Second, we're concerned by the vestiges of the old Ben Ali regime, which are resisting and staging their own counter-revolution to stir up violence, particularly in provincial towns.

"And finally, there is a real impatience on the part of the Tunisian people post-revolution. They want everything at once, and that is legitimate and understandable. They haven't had the associations or institutions to organise themselves so they are demonstrating and putting on political pressure in a non-organised way. We're travelling around the regions holding political meetings urging people to form associations and groups and fight the political battle that way."