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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:01 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
The wishy-washy position from the Obama administration only encourages Mubarak to stay on.
Will you take responsibility if they come out strongly against him and he stays ? How should they remove him ?
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:04 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
We have been waiting and hoping that the junior officers break with the Senior leadership, who will almost certainly always support Mubarak, but so far it has not happened.


The Senior leadership might not fancy risking putting it to the test.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:10 pm
@Ionus,
I think JTT's contributions are valuable. They keep us in touch with a stream of American opinion which is possibly unrepresented. Wrapping oneself in the flag is an easy option.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:11 pm
@Ionus,
They can't.

The leverage the US has is almost $3B a year in payoffs.

If that doesn't work, what will?

Will anyone believe that Obama would consider, for even a nano-second, sending the US military to Egypt to throw the bum out and bring democracy to the Egyptian people?

Whether or not such a move is sane is besides the point. It's off the table.

I don't think there was a chance that Bush would have ordered an invasion of Libya, but obviously Khadaffi thought otherwise.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:14 pm
@spendius,
Quote:
The Senior leadership might not fancy risking putting it to the test.
Considering how we keep hearing that the system has largely frozen out the young I would say that you are correct. The young officers still hope and expect to get theirs some day, but they have a lot of friends from childhood who's lives are going no where....they might be sympathetic to the call for reform..

Mubarak has in the last two weeks worked feverishly to shore up his support with the young through pay raises and promises, but surely that it too little too late and Mubarak promises cant be seen as being worth very much now..
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:21 pm
Our primary goal should be to "stop the spread of radical Islam" - House Majority Leader Cantor, R-Va.

Quote:
WASHINGTON — A top House Republican said Tuesday the primary goal of U.S. policy in Egypt should be to "stop the spread of radical Islam," an objective that has been little mentioned by Obama administration officials in recent weeks.

Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., also said at a news conference he hopes the street protests taking place in Cairo and elsewhere will lead to a democratic society that "stands for human rights, progress and equal opportunity."

In his remarks, Cantor did not criticize President Barack Obama over his handling of the two-week crisis.

GOP leaders have privately urged members of the rank and file not to second-guess Obama's approach to the crisis, in which hundreds of thousands of Egyptians have staged demonstrations demanding that President Hosni Mubarak surrender power.

Asked about criticism leveled recently by another Republican lawmaker, Cantor said, it would not be "helpful for this President, who is having a tough enough time as it is, to have 535 members of Congress to opine on his conduct of foreign policy."

Yet with his remarks, which aides said were planned in advance, Cantor appeared to be articulating a different policy objective than the one Obama has spoken of most frequently.

"I think the primary goal should be to stop the spread of radical Islam. That is where our focus should be," he said. More
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:21 pm
@spendius,
Quote:
Wrapping oneself in the flag is an easy option.
Burning someone else's flag whilst screeching hysterically is the stupid option.
roger
 
  3  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:24 pm
@JPB,
Yeah. Yeah, stopping the spread of radical Islam is a nice goal. I wonder when we will hear something about the means.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:30 pm
@roger,
Quote:
Yeah. Yeah, stopping the spread of radical Islam is a nice goal
Are we expecting the deeply conservative Egyptians to turn radical?? I think that depends upon your definition of radical, for instance I think for many it means that Egypt will no longer sit and do nothing as Israel abuses the Palestinian people. Oh, what Horrors!

Question: how many Egyptians took part in 9/11? How many Egyptians are in the Guantanamo prison or did we have the the CIA prisons? I dont think it was many..
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  2  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:33 pm
@roger,
Kill them all! Twisted Evil
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:46 pm
One thing that I am shocked we have not heard mention of in this thread is that it turns out that Jordan is not stable at all....the king just a few days ago dismissed the government and I think also raised government wages. We also have seen with-in Jordan intense critism of the Queen

Quote:
The statement from 36 members of the country's major tribes attacked what they called the interference of Queen Rania in running the country. The queen, "her sycophants and the power centers that surround her" are dividing Jordanians and "stealing from the country and the people," the letter states.

The tribal figures said they were sending a clear message to King Abdullah II. They warned that if corruption was not prosecuted and reform was not implemented, "similar events to those in Tunisia and Egypt and other Arab countries will occur."
http://preferredbypete.com/world-news/31754-jordanian-tribal-figures-criticize-queen.html

We have for years been told that King Abdullah II is the most forward thinking and able of the Middle East Dictators..so what gives??
Ceili
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:56 pm
@JPB,
I wonder if that isn't a misquote, or a mispoke... He probably wishes he could stop the spread of ....islam.
As a woman, I don't really see the difference between most of these dictators and the groups they propose to squash and or support.

Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 06:57 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
and reform was not implemented
delete reform, insert sharia law
Quote:
We have for years been told that King Abdullah II is the most forward thinking and able of the Middle East Dictator
His father was a great man...it remains to be seen if he can follow in his father's footsteps.

Jordan has had problems since they threw out the Palestinians (who then went to Lebanon and turned it into a basket case) for trying to organise a takeover.

The Palestinians have refused to resettle their people and have murdered to make sure no-one leaves the camps. We now have grandsons of the original refugee camp occupiers. They are trying to outbreed the Israelis and create a human crises that the world can not ignore....with the suffering of their own people. All this so they can one day be boss in a country.

Jordanians and Palestinians are really the same people so Jordanians tend to be sympathetic to Palestinians. King Abdullah II is under constant pressure to be more militant to the Israelis. He cant see that as being anything but counter-productive so his fortunes will rise and fall with the Palestinian problem.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 07:06 pm
@Ionus,
Quote:
Jordanians and Palestinians are really the same people so Jordanians tend to be sympathetic to Palestinians. King Abdullah II is under constant pressure to be more militant to the Israelis. He cant see that as being anything but counter-productive so his fortunes will rise and fall with the Palestinian problem.
It is not only because of the imminent fall of Mubarak that the Israeli military leaders now say "everything that we thought we knew is now gone"..Which seems to come as a shock to them but Mubarak is an old man, certainly the Israeli's understood that any deal that was done with him that was not supported by the people was probably going to become undone when he leaves...seems not...

I am thinking that King Abdullah II has the same problem....how can he resist taking up the Palestinian cause now that he almost certainly will not have Egypt also on board the program of shafting the Palestinians?...It seems King Abdullah II did some poor planning for the future as well as the Israelis.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  3  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 07:09 pm
@Ceili,
I'm not sure Rep Cantor realizes there's a difference. I give him credit for using the qualifier while disagreeing that that should be our "primary goal".
Ceili
 
  2  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 07:10 pm
@JPB,
No doubt. Thanks for all the posts by the way, this is a very interesting thread.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 07:57 pm
@georgeob1,
George, this is what I said:

Quote:
Quote:
I believe people can self govern themselves and don't need big brother to tell them how to do it.


Yes, I do too.
Especially when the "benefits" of our interventions have caused such misery & hardships for the ordinary people of the countries we've intervened in. What exactly are the benefits for most Afghan people of our propping up Karzai's corrupt government, how have their lives improved? How can so many of Egypt's people be so desperately poor when their president is a millionaire, many times over? I remember, during the Vietnam war, there was much talk about ways to win "the hearts & minds of the people". (As opposed to bombing & napalming them into submission. Neutral ) You'd think our leaders would have learned from that experience, but apparently not. I just think it's completely misguided to believe we can "bring democracy" to various impoverished middle eastern countries by our recent interventions, while leaving the ordinary people out of the equation.


Those comments of mine, which you quoted, were in the context of a discussion were were having in response to this article:

The west's itch to meddle is no help. Leave Egypt alone:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/01/west-itch-meddle-leave-egypt-alone

I was talking about the recent “interventions” in the middle east. My point was that I believe democracy cannot be imposed (from the top down) on countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, etc, by via “regime change”, imposed by outside forces. In which the US and its allies support convenient & corrupt dictators (like Karzai) while leaving the impact of that support on ordinary people) out of the equation.
In other words, I believe outside interventions (like wars & invasions, or funding the military in Egypt for years) are misguided. Because they have left the ordinary people of those countries out of the equation.
Or worse, have caused them enormous harm, as in Iraq.

That was what my reference to Vietnam & the “hearts & minds” of the people was about. If anything, the US & allies war intervention had the exact opposite effect at the time. It certainly did not win their support. Has the US & its allies not learned something from that disastrous experience of intervention?

I was not commenting on Haiti, Cuba, Japan, the south pacific, or US & allies wars anywhere else. I don’t think it would be particularly useful to side-track this thread into a discussion of the rights & wrongs, wisdom or otherwise, of those US interventions. However, for the record, JTT’s assessments of those events are closer to mine than yours are.

Apologies for this sidetrack to the flow on the thread.
Back recent developments in Egypt & the middle east now ...
JTT
 
  0  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 08:41 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
Our primary goal should be to "stop the spread of radical Islam" - House Majority Leader Cantor, R-Va. We can't afford to have competition for radical America. These guys cause us to waste too much time fighting them when we could be raping and pillaging another country.

Well, not a total waste. All of our military friends still get to make their insane profits but that too is no problem. We've got a mighty gullible public that keeps feeding us their tax dollars, not to mention my huge salary and pension.
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  0  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 08:45 pm
@Ionus,
It's hard for a grunt whose brain was in sleep mode for 24 years to grasp the concept of free speech.
hawkeye10
 
  -2  
Reply Tue 8 Feb, 2011 08:55 pm
@JTT,
Quote:
It's hard for a grunt whose brain was in sleep mode for 24 years to grasp the concept of free speech
You clearly have watched too much Gomer Pyle during your lifetime..
 

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