Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

Looks like I'll just have to miss out

I have been leaning towards the same embarassing conclusion.

Actually JPB, what you've decided to paste here is really the best all in one place coverage I've found. Good work.

beware of profound words!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1vnu-IcNuA

It seemed so easy 12 or so days ago.
A despot could be driven from office when thousands upon thousands gathered in Tahir Square. Young, old, men and women from all walks of life demanding it be done.
And we in the comfort of our homes far away could wallow in the belief that democracy was spreading.
And the revolution was being televised.

But then things got very, very complicated, didn't they?
And a fortnight into this there are so many players, so many options, so many unpredictable outcomes and a lot of second guessing.

It strikes me that it is time for the protesters to go back to work and back to school. The economy of Egypt is losing some $300M a day. There is a danger that the infrastructure could collapse.
Mubarak is no longer a factor. He is powerless even if he retains his title.
Pushing on that is no longer germane.

My hope is that there will be some kind of orderly transition, but I am not real confident that that will be doable in the short time available between now and the scheduled elections in September.

Endy-
I'm going to try to clarify to you what has transpired between us.

When you said:

I must admit to you, it chafed my ass. You acted like you and the kinder, gentler persons on A2K had all been holding prayer vigils and fund raisers for the Egyptian populace, while the crass among us (me, Finn, Georgeob1 and anyone else who may have ever smiled at a Republican) were drinking, swearing and throwing babies up against the wall.

So, I made a snarky comment about people adopting a rather suspicious, sudden virtue about Egypt, when Finn, the ever dastardly Georgeob1 and yours truly care as much about what's occurring as you and the anointed.

I do view you as a sensitive man, well-read and concerned about the world. I thought I may have been mistaken in my assumption that no one here had raised a thread about the Egyptian lifestyle - and was prepared to go into the corner after a sincere apology had you actually brought the subject up pre-revolution. I ascertain now that your comments about Egyptians were limited to the story of one fella who found himself in Gitmo.

So, I will wave at you in a friendly manner, assure you that the ugly among us genuinely care about the people in Egypt, just as you do, and wish you a pleasant evening.

Egypt is in Africa, and Africa is the Armpit of humanity for a reason. It was possible that something great would come of this revolt, but it was always far fetched...

Nice. I`m guessing you live in the ass crack then.

Nope, Seattle area, which we like so much we have decided to retire here and open a restaurant...I count my blessings every day.

Seattle is indeed lovely. Blanket statements mean shite though, don`t they.

I guess it`s easy for westeners to have that attitude since we`ve done nothing but rape that continent for generations.

So what, you are admitting that Africa does not produce but you are giving them a pass for their failure by labeling them victim?? How so very stereotypically liberal...

That would be an appropriate place, yes, and those that were complicit in his crimes should accompany him. While they are there, at the Hague, they can be tried for all the rest of the war crimes.

No. I`m not admitting anything but that your perspective is wrong and disgusting. I am saying that if your going to denigrate an entire continent you should look at what we`ve done to make your perspective so easy to spout off without anything but a racist, hateful agenda.
What have you done that`s culturally significant? or important?

the truth cares nothing about the aesthetics that you prefer...

Right back at ya. Guess you can't think of thing you've done that's worthwhile either.

Since the Second World War, the control of the Middle East has been a major plank of U.S. foreign policy. The United States considers the Middle East oil a lifeline of the industrial world and a prodigious source of strategic power. It is actually more than just oil. If it were just oil, the U.S. would buy it from anywhere. It is about control of oil.

To maintain that control, the United States needs to prop up collaborators in the region. This is the major reason thugs and autocrats are ruling countries from Saudi Arabia to Morocco. In consideration of it, these regimes perform a service. They let U.S. corporations siphon off the oil wealth at a derisive price. This policy has fleeced Arab economies and has yielded legions of unemployed youth, under-development, pervasive anomie and disgruntlement.

Arabs are mindful of this treatment and resent it sorely. Now they are showing signs of not wanting to remain captive. They are straining at the leash. Therefore, the United States fears they may rise again or learn to resist. When they resist, the U.S. will need a strong police force to put them down.

The late Pakistani-American historian, Eqbal Ahmad, argues that, “The Arabs are many. They are at the moment weak, disorganized, demoralized, and a bunch of country-sellers are ruling those places. That’s not a permanent condition. Someday the Arabs will have to organize themselves. Once they have done that, you will see a different history beginning again, and it won’t be a pretty one.”

That moment appears to have arrived.

The recent revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt and uprisings in several other African-Arab countries are in keeping with the predictions of Ahmad. It is sending shudders down the spines of Arab autocrats and their paymasters in Washington.

Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, the quondam president of Tunisia, ruled it for 23 years with an iron fist. His rule was marked by severe violations of human rights, gagging the national press, rank nepotism, and crass corruption. It is the latter that really took the cake and helped trigger the revolution that ended in his exile.

Ben Ali, his wife Leile Trabelsi, and their respective clans fleeced the national economy with uttermost rapacity. A 2008 U.S. Embassy cable reveals that 50 per cent of the country’s economy belonged to the first family, that is, relatives of Ben Ali or his wife. The state’s most profitable banks, ports, housing schemes and industry changed hands to the members of the first family. According to Global Financial Integrity, this family mafia stole over $1 billion a year between 2000 and 2008 through “bribery, kickbacks, trade mispricing and criminal activity.” For a country with a GNP of barely $80 billion, this theft is simply debilitating. It is also said that first lady Trabelsi spirited one tonne of gold out of the country.

This remorseless thuggery left people with no resources to sustain a decent life. To keep people under control, a bloated police force was maintained. In a country of 10 million people the number of police was six times that of France, which has six times the population of Tunisia.

In the course of his quotidian life, a Tunisian would find this ubiquitous — police at every corner of the street. The police would accost every citizen, stop every vehicle, demand documents and would extort bribes on false pretexts. If any citizen demurred, the retribution would be public beating and insult.

This is exactly what happened to Mohamed Bouazizi, who set himself on fire on Dec. 17, protesting against police brutality and state exploitation. Bouazizi’s grisly death touched a nerve. A series of protests sprang up. Police tried to use force to contain it. Violence ensued. People protested in the scores of thousands.

Consequently, Ben Ali fled into exile in Saudi Arabia on Jan. 14. Ahmad’s words resounded in my ears. This is both seminal and inspirational. The revolution in Tunisia has kindled a zeal for freedom in other Arab people, too.

In Morocco, Algeria, Lebanon, Yemen and Jordan, long subdued people are finding utterance. They are coming out into the streets spontaneously and are protesting against their authoritarian regimes. For more than a week, Egypt has been seething with protest and rebellion.

Hosni Mubarak managed to rule Egypt for 30 years with brutal tactics. He is trying to subdue protesters with violence but has failed. Mubarak’s grip on power is slipping away. His departure is imminent.

Other autocratic regimes are having nightmares, too. Rulers of Saudi Arabia and UAE are looking askance at it. Arab oligarchies are an anachronism. They have to go. This scenario has caused consternation among policy-makers in Washington. They raise the spectre that if autocrats leave, Islamic radicals may take over. This argument is both misleading and hypocritical. After all, Washington has supported for decades the Saudi ruling family and Zia ul Haq of Pakistan, modern history’s most fundamental retrograde, and radical rulers.

The Egyptian political scientist Mustapha Mond predicts that now that the dam has broken, protests will continue.“The reservoir of discontent is huge.” The cracks in the dam have set in. The water is seeping out, undermining it foundation. It is just a matter of time when people’s rage will wash away the edifice of control and humiliation. And events do not portend well for Washington’s hegemonic designs.

—Faheem Khan

Would you be talking about black dictators, tribal loyalties or the collapse of wealth after ending colonial rule ? If you really want to talk about rape, ask black women...they want the white man back at least they were safe in those days. You have been brainwashed by lefties.

I'm not sure Mubarak's departure is as imminent as Mr Khan supposes. It sounds like a lot of double-speak by spendi's big kids and bad tidings in the works for the youth-led protesters.

From the Guardian

3:46pm: Jack Shenker has been sent a statement from Suleiman's office on today's meetings. Here's a full English translation.


The Vice-President held a series of meetings with representatives of the full spectrum of political parties and forces, as a well as a number of youths from the 25 January movement. The meetings arrived at the following consensus:

All participants of the dialogue arrived at a consensus to express their appreciation and respect for the 25 January movement and on the need to deal seriously, expeditiously and honestly with the current crisis that the nation is facing, the legitimate demands of the youth of 25 January and society's political forces, with full consideration and a commitment to constitutional legitimacy in confronting the challenges and dangers faced by Egypt as result of this crisis, including: The lack of security for the populace; disturbances to daily life; The paralysis of by public services; The suspension of education at universities and schools; The logistical delays in the delivery of essential goods to the population; The damages to and losses of the Egyptian economy; The attempts at foreign intervention into purely Egyptian affairs and breaches of security by foreign elements working to undermine stability in implementation of their plots, while recognizing that the 25 January movement is a honorable and patriotic movement.

The participants in the national dialogue agreed on a number of political arrangements, and constitutional and legislative measures, which the participants agreed by consensus would be of a temporary nature until the election of new president at the end of the current presidential term, including:

First: Implementing the Commitments Announced by the President in Speech to the Nation on 1 February 2011:

1. No nomination for a new presidential term will take place;

2. A peaceful transition of authority within the constitutional framework;

3. The introduction of constitutional amendments to articles 76 & 77, and related constitutional amendments needed for the peaceful transition of authority;

4. Legislative amendments related to the amendments of the constitution;

5. Implementation of the rulings of the Court of Cassation, regarding challenges to the People's Assembly election

6. Pursuit of corruption, and an investigation into those behind the breakdown of security in line with the law

7. Restoring the security and stability of the nation, and tasking the police forces to resume their role in serving and protecting the people.


Second: In implementation of these commitments the following measures will be taken:

1. A committee will be formed from members of the judicial authority and a number of political figures to study and recommend constitutional amendments, and legislative amendments of laws complimentary to the constitution to be completed by the first week of March.

2. The Government announces the establishment of a bureau to receive complaints regarding, and commits to immediately release, prisoners of conscience of all persuasions. The Government commits itself to not pursuing them or limiting their ability to engage in political activity.

3. Media and communications will be liberalized and no extra-legal constraints will be imposed on them.

4. Supervisory and judiciary agencies will be tasked with continuing to pursue persons implicated in corruption, as well as pursuing and holding accountable persons responsible for the recent breakdown in security.

5. The state of emergency will be lifted based on the security situation and an end to the threats to the security of society

6. All participants expressed their absolute rejection of any and all forms of foreign intervention in internal Egyptian affairs.


Third: A national follow-up committee will be established and composed of public and independent figures from among experts, specialists and representatives of youth movements, and will monitor the implementation of all consensual agreements, and issues reports and recommendations to the Vice-President

In addition, all participants in the dialogue saluted the patriotic and loyal role played by our Armed Forces at this sensitive time, and affirmed their aspirations for a continuation of that role to restore of calm, security and stability, and to guarantee the implementation and of the consensus and understandings that result from the meetings of the national dialogue.


It sounds like those present at the meeting reached "consensus" that the youth movement is "honorable and patriotic", but must be put down.