Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

In the meantime, additional journalists are being detained and the leaders/organizers of the protests are still in captivity.

From Al Jazeera
6:05pm: Amnesty International has warned that a Google employee arrested in Cairo during recent unrest faces significant risk of abuse by Egyptian police.

Hassiba Hadj Sahraoui, Deputy Director of Middle and North Africa at Amnesty International, said:

The Egyptian authorities must immediately disclose where Wael Ghuneim is and release him or charge him with a recognizable criminal offence... He must be given access to a doctor and a lawyer of his choice and not be subjected to torture or other ill-treatment. His case is just one of many that highlight the continued crackdown by the Egyptian authorities on those exercising their right to protest peacefully.

4:28pm: Al Jazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin has been detained by the Egyptian military in Tahrir Square.

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

It strikes me that it is time for the protesters to go back to work and back to school. The economy of Egypt is losing some $300M a day. There is a danger that the infrastructure could collapse.
Mubarak is no longer a factor. He is powerless even if he retains his title.
Pushing on that is no longer germane.

Except there is a real feeling being expressed by those in the square that the promises of no retribution are empty words and they are convinced they will be hunted down and "dealt with". I keep hearing things like, "We're in it for our lives."

Each day more and more journalists and protest organizers are being rounded up and detained. The journalists tend to get released eventually. Not so for the organizers.

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@JPB,

I agree, however I think the different perspectives are interesting.
I am hoping that this doesn't end in a bloodbath.
I was watching the news the other night and they were talking about Mubarak taking a page from the Saddam handbook, by releasing all the hardened criminals from jail with the promise they'd fight for the pro-regime forces. It now seems that this had a dual purpose, to make room in the jails for the protesters.

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@realjohnboy,

I wouldn't leave. The protesters are right not to trust Mubarak. They suspect - as I do - that greater amounts of time will simply allow him to engineer a way to stay in office, or to rig the upcoming election.

These protesters believe that this is a fight for their lives. Not just a new guy in office, but the future of their country. The fact that it's wrecking the economy right now is meaningless. The political situation of the country, and the casual acceptance of the things that go on by those who profit off of the regime or current structure, isn't acceptable.

If you believe it's worth dying for - you cannot leave. Can't give an inch. I would continue fighting until the guy was out of office or dead.

Cycloptichorn

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more on Ghuneim from the Guardian

Video has emerged purporting to show the moment when four men arrested Ghuneim.

A source, who claims to have spoken to a senior military figure about Ghuneim's case, claimed he is facing dangerous trumped up charges.

His case had initially been handled by joint task force from General Intelligence and State Security. He was accused of receiving assistance from foreign entities to undermine the stability of, and overturn the government, engaging in saboteurs activity against the dignity of the state, and promulgating stigmatizing disinformation in an online smear campaigns for the benefit of foreign agencies.

He is, now, in the New State Security Complex in the 7th District, Madinet Nassr, North East Of Cairo.

Nobody was able to talk to him, but his file has been seen, and was described as grave.

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@Cycloptichorn,

I agree.

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@Cycloptichorn,

Quote:

If you believe it's worth dying for - you cannot leave.

there's no freedom like graveyard freedom.

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@dyslexia,

dyslexia wrote:

Quote:
If you believe it's worth dying for - you cannot leave.
there's no freedom like graveyard freedom.

What's the alternative? To just go back and do whatever you did before?

Every single free person on this planet, including you and me, owe our lives to someone who agreed with my position. Who put their life on the line when it mattered.

Without a direct threat to the administration, they will simply engineer whatever outcome they wish. That's not an acceptable solution.

I could swear that others in this country once felt that there were things worth fighting for and dying for, in the face of long odds. That such things were more important than making sure the economy of your country is ticking along smoothly.

Cycloptichorn

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@dyslexia,

Graveyard freedom is a given; it's the future for our children that matters.

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I understand what you are saying, Cyclo and JPB. The problem I have is with the concept of winning the battle and losing the war.
Perhaps my green eyeshades are blurring my vision. I am an economist with a very small e.
These protests are reportedly costing the Egyptian economy around $300M a day. 6% of the country's GDP comes from tourism and 1 of 8 jobs are related to tourism.
Egypt's actual GDP is more then a bit opaque, but in the last 2 weeks perhaps 1% has been has been lopped off.

The world media has been obsessed with Tahir Square for 2 weeks. But I suspect they are now thinking of moving on to the next event. The crowds will dwindle, I think.
There are talks going on amongst various factions like the military and the Brotherhood. I hope that the protesters don't get left out simply because they are intent on staying in the square rather then getting into the circle.

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Quote:

1738: Ahmad Amr El-Moslimany, from Cairo, writes: "Actually I agree with the beginning of the negotiations but I would insist on our demands. I don't trust the regime for the next six months - we know this regime well and all its faces so we know actually what will happen if we stop the demonstrations. So we will protest until our demands are met."

1735: The BBC's Ian Pannell in Cairo says those in Tahrir Square insist they have invested too much in the protest to leave now. They fear a backlash by security forces if they quit now, he says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

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@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

Graveyard freedom is a given; it's the future for our children that matters.

generally speaking, orphans have a bleak future.

1 Reply

@dyslexia,

You wouldn't know that by WWII.

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@realjohnboy,

Apparently the economy only was going well for some which is why they are protesting in the first place.

The following is a question on yahoo with an answer from someone who is worked over there for what it is worth. (she explains it well is why I thought it would copying and pasting..)

Quote:

What are the Egyptians protesting about?
Just curious what the riot is about. Why do they want their president to step down? What did he do wrong? if i'm not mistaken, he's been president for over 3 decades? Serious answers please. Thanks!

Best Answer - Chosen by Asker
I have been working in Egypt,5 to 6 months a year, for the last 20 years. I love the people and the country. They are the most peace-loving people on the face of the earth but Egypt is and has been a Police-State for 30 years. People were getting fed-up with the way they were being "handled" by their government and police. They hoped that the regime would go away when Mubarak died but when he tried to put his son in his place they could not take anymore. Corruption,favoritism,suppression are some of the things people have to live with every day. Elections are a joke, people stopped voting because it would not change anything. The party of Mubarak would always come out with a big majority.
They just can't take anymore. I came back only 3 weeks ago and hope to be able to go back soon.
I am with the Egyptian people in their fight for their rights.
Source(s):
Archeologist - Egyptologist

source

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@cicerone imposter,

thanks for sharing that, I promise to improve my reading of history.

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@revelette,

Quote:

They are the most peace-loving people on the face of the earth but Egypt...

I'm not sure Israelis and the Algerian soccer team would agree.

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@realjohnboy,

I don't recall the exact numbers but while the overall unemployment in Egypt is in the 25% range, the unemployment figures of college educated youth is closer to 75%.

I was thinking about your point the other day when I posted a summary of interviews with folks who were finding it difficult to get to their jobs. Maybe that's part of the point. To let those who have jobs feel some of the same pain of trying to get by on nothing.

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@realjohnboy,

Most of the common people don't give a **** about the GDP, because the profits from the majority of economic activity flow to a small few. If you're going to be poor either way, who cares?

Hitting the country in the pocketbook is the only way to get results. If they just sit back at home and complain about the situation, nothing will happen at all.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@dyslexia,

It's not history you need to study. What exactly is your point?

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As I posted earlier, most revolutions are multi-act plays. The eventual winners, more often than not, are unrelated to those who started it, and, more importantly, the eventual result is often not what the people hoped for at the start. Our revolution and its result were a notable exception to the historical rule. I believe it was the motivation of the original settlers and their the unique (and long) history of local colonial government that made the difference in our case.

The litany of revolutions gone wrong is a long one, with the French and Lenninist Revolution perhaps being the most prominent. Those of Castro a generation ago and the esteemed Hugo Chavez in current times are additional examples. The Revolutions of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Shia mullah's in Iran are perhaps the relevant examples for Egypt.

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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

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