Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

I think we all hope that it ends peacefully and without recriminations but it is a forlorn hope.

We cannot judge anything a "success" until we know what consequences it has. Many a young man has thought it a success when he has led a lovely young lady from the altar to the honeymoon suite only to find himself a few years, or even months, later splayed out in the gutter gasping for air.

Perhaps extracting a promise that there will be no recriminations is what we ought to try for for when Media takes itself off to the next dramatic event which makes for good TV and provides opportunities for complete idiots to present themselves as founts of wisdom.

The new Egyptian authority, should there be one, might well lift the blockade of Gaza.
If there is free movement across that border from North Africa, the implications for Iraeli security are great.

(No ****, Sherlock)

So Obama is in a very difficult position.

Not really....so long as the radicals dont take over all Obama has as a choice is to get on board what ever the Egyptians decide to do...attempt to make it look like he played some part in the outcome..People believing that America played a part in lifting the blockade would be good for America, as most people consider it to be unjust. We pretty much came to agreement on how we feel about Apartheid awhile ago...and while the Jews ARE professional victims they dont have anymore right to practice it then the South Africans did.

We should think long term hawk. What will we do if Israelis are threatened with being run into the sea.

Not much at all. It appeared to me that revelette was cretiting himsdelf with the virtue of real action based only on his sympathies. My point is that in the real world riskless sympathy doesn't count for much.

give them swimming lessons?

Btw - I am now officially having fun with the thumbs up system.

I dont know if we can think long term...too many variables.

That was an assessment by Ms Leverett. I included a link to her web page where her very strong opinions on the inadequacies of the Obama administration are on the sidebar of her page.

Edit: I'm posting items that I think may be of interest to this group, not necessarily things I agree with.

Left hand meet right hand.

How do you do!

From the Guardian

11:29pm: More from the Reuters interview with ElBaradei:

"To hear ... that Mubarak should stay and lead the process of change, and that the process of change should essentially be led by his closest military adviser [Sulieman], who's not the most popular person in Egypt, without the sharing of power with civilians, it would be very, very disappointing.

ElBaradei said he did not think the demonstrations were running out of steam, though he worried the situation could get bloodier. "There is of course a little fatigue everywhere," he said, adding that there was a "hard core" of demonstrators who would not give up as long as Mubarak held onto power:

It might not be every day but what I hear is that they might stage demonstrations every other day. The difference is that it would become more angry and more vicious. And I do not want to see it turning from a beautiful, peaceful revolution into a bloody revolution."

ElBaradei suggested that the United States did not appear to have a clear policy on Egypt:

It would appear that you [the United States] are just responding to who is more powerful for each day rather than a principled position, which would be for me personally disappointing and for all the people who area demonstrating."

11.05pm: Barack Obama called leaders from Germany, Britain and the United Arab Emirates today to discuss the situation in Egypt and the need for political change there, Reuters reports. The White House said:

The President emphasized the importance of an orderly, peaceful transition, beginning now, to a government that is responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people, including credible, inclusive negotiations between the government and the opposition."

Obama also voiced "his serious concern about the targeting of journalists and human rights groups, and reaffirmed that the government of Egypt has a responsibility to protect the rights of its people and to release immediately those who have been unjustly detained".

Will the real JTT please stand up!

Slavoj Žižek, writing for the Guardian, takes on the “breathtaking” hypocrisy of western liberals in prioritising stability over democracy in the Arab world.

"Why fear the Arab revolutionary spirit?"

Here, then, is the moment of truth: one cannot claim, as in the case of Algeria a decade ago, that allowing truly free elections equals delivering power to Muslim fundamentalists. Another liberal worry is that there is no organised political power to take over if Mubarak goes. Of course there is not; Mubarak took care of that by reducing all opposition to marginal ornaments, so that the result is like the title of the famous Agatha Christie novel, And Then There Were None. The argument for Mubarak – it's either him or chaos – is an argument against him.

The hypocrisy of western liberals is breathtaking: they publicly supported democracy, and now, when the people revolt against the tyrants on behalf of secular freedom and justice, not on behalf of religion, they are all deeply concerned. Why concern, why not joy that freedom is given a chance? Today, more than ever, Mao Zedong's old motto is pertinent: "There is great chaos under heaven – the situation is excellent."

Where, then, should Mubarak go? Here, the answer is also clear: to the Hague. If there is a leader who deserves to sit there, it is him.

Interesting podcast from this morning's Day 6 program on the CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/day6/blog/2011/02/05/web-exclusive-uncut-ron-paul-interview/

Surely no bloke would use "revelette" as a cybername.

It had crossed my mind that a football match against a European All Stars team that Egypt won 4-o would get things back in order.

Yeah, that's pretty consistent with his Libertarian ideals.

Reuters has a summary of the strengths of the protest movement and Mubarak and his group:

The protest movement
• The protesters have the numbers, for the moment. The movement brought more than one million people onto the streets last Tuesday and its rally in central Cairo on Friday was almost as well attended. The protests have also been massive in provincial cities and towns, especially Alexandria, Suez and the textile town of Mahalla in the Nile Delta. Rallies in favour of Mubarak have been much smaller. They started later and have already started to diminish. But some Egyptians say the government has made enough concessions and the protests should end. Many say they are tired of the disruption and losses the protests have caused.
• The opposition has widespread international sympathy, enhanced by the reputation it has earned for non-violence. A crucial phase in the battle for public opinion came when Mubarak supporters attacked the protesters on Wednesday and tried to expel them from the square with rocks, petrol bombs and gunshots. The protesters are searched for weapons when they enter Tahrir Square and have to defend themselves with whatever they can find there.
• The protesters have a promise from the army that it will not shoot them. Although the army's role has been mysterious and ambiguous, most do at least trust the army to keep that promise.
• Foreign governments, the United Nations and international rights groups have upheld their right to demonstrate peacefully and is watching the Egyptian government's behaviour carefully. Any attempt to disperse the Tahrir Square protests by force would lead to condemnation and international isolation.
• The opposition has the momentum, again for the moment. Mubarak and others in government have made a succession of concessions and gestures, the most important of which was Mubarak's announcement that he will not stand for re-election when his current term runs out in September. The core protesters have held fast to the demand that Mubarak must leave.

Mubarak and his group
• Mubarak is supreme commander of the armed forces, which has more than 450,000 men and a vast arsenal of weapons. But so far the army has done little to help his cause, other than to protect government buildings. It has sometimes restricted access to Tahrir Square but not in a way that severely hampers the protest movement's activities. The army has urged the protesters to go home but the protesters has ignored it. No outsiders can readily judge whether the army command might at some stage press Mubarak to give up and resign.
• The police forces, especially the Central Security riot police force, are in serious disarray after withdrawing from the streets on Jan. 28. Vice President Omar Suleiman has said it will take months to restore their capabilities. But if the confrontation drags on, some police units could return as a force in Mubarak's favour.
• Mubarak remains president of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) but the party is immensely unpopular and many of its offices have been ransacked or burned. In practice, the party is not a very significant asset.
• Mubarak still controls the state media, which have proved one of his most loyal tools, broadcasting a stream of propaganda in his favour. But many Egyptians now have access to a wide range of satellite television channels that the government cannot control. The Qatari channel Al Jazeera played an important part in keeping Egyptians informed but the government has now made it more difficult to receive.
• The popular uprising has alarmed many Egyptians, including some prosperous middle-class people, those who benefited from the old system and some Coptic Christians who fear the inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood in political life. But those people are unlikely to come out in the streets for the moment.
• Mubarak has support and sympathy from right-wing leaders in countries such as Israel, Italy and Saudi Arabia. On Saturday the United States shifted its position significantly, saying that Mubarak should stay on for some time to supervise political change - not very different from Mubarak's position. But foreign connections are a political liability for both sides.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06detain.html


Extra-Legal Detentions, and a Mubarak Aide’s Role in Them, Anger Egyptians
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
Published: February 5, 2011

clip

CAIRO — Vice President Omar Suleiman of Egypt has won the blessing of both the Mubarak and Obama administrations as the leader of a political transition toward democracy in Egypt. But human rights advocates say that so far Mr. Suleiman, who also is in charge of Egyptian intelligence, has shown no sign of discontinuing the practice of extra-legal detention of political opponents — a hallmark of President Hosni Mubarak’s nearly 30-year rule that is a central grievance of the protesters in the streets.

West Backs Gradual Egyptian Transition (February 6, 2011)
Stability of Egypt Hinges on a Divided Military (February 6, 2011)
Week in Review: 2 Detained Reporters Saw Secret Police’s Methods (February 6, 2011)
Special Podcast on the Unrest in Egypt From The Takeaway Radio Program
“We have been seriously concerned about the arrests and harassment of human rights workers and youth activists who are around the demonstrations,” said Heba Morayef, a researcher with Human Rights Watch in Cairo. “These are exactly the same practices that inspired the Jan. 25 demonstrations in the first place, not a departure.”

The continuing pattern is one reason many of the opposition leaders and protesters in the streets say they are determined not to back down until Mr. Mubarak leaves office: if he stays, they say, they risk imprisonment, torture and death.

<gnashes teeth>

To be honest I was thinking the same thing myself! To be jokeing there is no need to worry because god will part the sea and this will not be the first time that it has happened!